LTLFTcomposite
Well-known member
One thing history has shown is there's no great reward for being an early adopter in EVs... in fact it's quite the opposite.
Poll:If you can reserve Gen 3 Tesla for $5k now, would you ?
- Thread starter evnow
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LTLFTcomposite said:
Yes that is true for most things. The LEAF is a good example of that.
However the Teslas on road now have shown the battery pack to be much more durable than the LEAF. It would seem likely that the GEN 3 Tesla will use the same battery design as the Roadster and the Model S, just a smaller version of the design that works well.
The most tempting thing about the Model E ( for me at least ) will be the range. If the model E has much greater range than LEAF 2.0 then there will be no LEAF 2.0 in my garage, simple as that.
By looks of the survey result so far. I am not the only one looking at other EV vendors.
gigglehertz
Active member
I would love to own a model E, but unless there is some sort of Leaf-like lease deal, then I won't be getting one. "Affordable" is a relative term. I'm sure it will sell well, and I hope it will spur other automakers to mass produce a 150-mile EV I and the rest of the huddled masses can afford.
Wennfred
Well-known member
I search for Tesla Model E news every day, If anyone finds the first Pics of the Model E, post them here ASAP!
Start saving, hoping for 2016.
Fred
Start saving, hoping for 2016.
Fred
dhanson865
Well-known member
How do you lemon an all electric car when you've made tens of thousands of them already?
They'll decontent it a chunk (not as nice of an interior, smaller rims/tires) but it'll still be one of the safest most reliable cars on the road. The only possible weak point will be the battery and so long as they don't go bankrupt they'll stand behind the battery pack.
I voted yes on the survey but it is a refundable deposit. No telling if I'd be in a Toyota, Nissan, or Tesla come 5 years from now. I'd like to be all electric (sell my last ICE/gas hybrid) but who knows what my income/car situation will be in 5 years?
They'll decontent it a chunk (not as nice of an interior, smaller rims/tires) but it'll still be one of the safest most reliable cars on the road. The only possible weak point will be the battery and so long as they don't go bankrupt they'll stand behind the battery pack.
I voted yes on the survey but it is a refundable deposit. No telling if I'd be in a Toyota, Nissan, or Tesla come 5 years from now. I'd like to be all electric (sell my last ICE/gas hybrid) but who knows what my income/car situation will be in 5 years?
DanCar
Well-known member
Yeah, I expect the leaf to be $8K cheaper on the low end by the time the bluestar arrives. On the high end there will be a Nissan that competes in range.gigglehertz said:
Advantages of Tesla:
* Quality
* longer range
* Cachet - the state of being respected or admired; prestige
* Batteries last longer
Advantages of Nissan:
* Cheaper
* No battery fire yet from road debri. Safer
* Available
I'm amazed how cheap my Leaf paint job is. Any metallic object rubbing against will scrape straight through to the metal. Not true on a Honda or Toyota.
evnow
Well-known member
Read the quarterly financial call transcripts. Ignore the article.DanCar said:
In anycase, the poll is based on the assumptions stated.
Christopher
Well-known member
I disagree on where the safety advantage lies. Comparing the NHTSA crash test results of a LEAF to a Model S, it's definitely safer with the Model S. And given the choices Tesla makes in their engineering I would expect similar results in the Model E. Though, for the same reason, I'd expect the LEAF to remain more energy efficient. As for the recent fire with the Tesla, that actually demonstrates the remarkable safety of the Model S battery pack design. We have yet to see how the LEAF would fare in such a situation. However, both should perform better than any ICE vehicle given the much less protection of the fuel lines and fuel tank of an ICE vehicle.DanCar said:
So, advantage to Tesla on safety, energy efficiency to Nissan. As for quality, I'd give that to Nissan as I've been watching the Tesla forums and the number and severity of issues people have been experiencing has been much worse than those we've all experienced with the LEAF (apart from the battery longevity in hot climates).
DanCar
Well-known member
Your making the assumption that something like this or worse hasn't happened already several times to the many Leafs being driven out there.Christopher said:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2011/12/22/nissan-says-batteries-for-the-nissan-leaf-can-take-a-licking/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
DanCar
Well-known member
I don't see where the transcript backs up your claim.evnow said:
Deleted member 8423
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This is not a reasonable assumption to make. There will be other changes to get the cost down. I'd bet that changes to the "armor plating" around the battery were on the chopping block until this week, probably not anymore.dhanson865 said:
I'd hope they don't start taking preorders until a few months before delivery. No reason why we should have to float them a $5k loan for years.
GRA
Well-known member
No, I don't buy pigs in pokes even if they otherwise meet my needs (which the Model E would not). There are lots of one-hit wonders, and building an excellent car for $35k is a lot harder than building one for $70k.
Now, assuming that the Model E comes out, proves to be a good car, and they then make an AWD wagon/small CUV based on the same powertrain for the same price, that would be another thing. But in general I try never to buy a car the first year it's out, to give the company time to work out the inevitable first year bugs (like 2013 PDMs in the LEAF). And I'm (fortunately) mostly immune to the 'gottahaveit' bug. Ultimately it's just a car, and I have a satisfactory one of those now in current conditions.
Now, assuming that the Model E comes out, proves to be a good car, and they then make an AWD wagon/small CUV based on the same powertrain for the same price, that would be another thing. But in general I try never to buy a car the first year it's out, to give the company time to work out the inevitable first year bugs (like 2013 PDMs in the LEAF). And I'm (fortunately) mostly immune to the 'gottahaveit' bug. Ultimately it's just a car, and I have a satisfactory one of those now in current conditions.
dhanson865
Well-known member
ITestStuff said:
I did say a chunk, I guess I should have put more on the page that I was thinking I was implying. Another chunk of the cost changes will be from 3 other factors
volume (more cars to spread R&D/overhead costs)
lower profit margins (Elon has already said he would lower the profit margin on the cheaper vehicles when they come)
technology (reduced cost of battery packs unrelated to volume, reduction of quality or capacity)
I personally would consider lowering the pack capacity as well but Elon says he doesn't consider sub 200 mile range viable for mass market.
I don't think any of the 4 categories I mentioned will give much of any chance of turning this into a lemon. At the worst it'd be equal to a Leaf with a bigger battery pack and better styling. At best it'll blow it away.
I'm not married to either Tesla related outcome I'll consider Toyota, Tesla, Nissan, and any other contender before I make the purchase.
evnow
Well-known member
I don't have the time to hunt for the quotes. If you search my earlier posts on the subject I've given the links and exact quotes.DanCar said:
DanCar
Well-known member
Costs for the Gen 3 Tesla are less than you think. The cost today for the battery battery pack has been estimated at $12K. http://insideevs.com/tesla-battery-in-the-model-s-costs-less-than-a-quarter-of-the-car-in-most-cases/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
If the price of batteries follows previous trends of 40% price drop http://evobsession.com/ev-battery-prices-40-lower-than-in-2010/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; then Tesla will be making a good profit on a car with a battery that costs of: $7,200.
Sounds like Elon is saying the Gen 3 will be full featured, rather then decontented. Bluestar info starts 31 seconds into the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbX2Ju2ffM0#t=0m31s" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
If the price of batteries follows previous trends of 40% price drop http://evobsession.com/ev-battery-prices-40-lower-than-in-2010/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; then Tesla will be making a good profit on a car with a battery that costs of: $7,200.
Sounds like Elon is saying the Gen 3 will be full featured, rather then decontented. Bluestar info starts 31 seconds into the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbX2Ju2ffM0#t=0m31s" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
evnow
Well-known member
I think you will just keep waiting for some other car to become V2GRA said:
I just picked up a Cadillac ATS on lease for 3 years (still need an ICE sadly) and, after thinking hard about the Model S, decided against it because it is too large and expensive. I'm hoping to return the Caddy in three years for the Model E.
Would I put $5k down to reserve it? Nah. I have better things to do with my money than give Tesla an additional $5k that they can leverage.
Would I put $5k down to reserve it? Nah. I have better things to do with my money than give Tesla an additional $5k that they can leverage.
GRA
Well-known member
I'll keep waiting for a manufacturer to produce a car that meet my needs at a price I can afford. I don't care which manufacturer that is (although Nissan has pretty much taken themselves out of the running, given their behavior over the past year plus).evnow said:I think you will just keep waiting for some other car to become V2GRA said:
smkettner
Well-known member
I am looking for a no wait time purchase as I think prices may soften up a bit at least on the S & X.
Yes I might be waiting for an extended period. Just not going to jump in again like with LEAF.
Yes I might be waiting for an extended period. Just not going to jump in again like with LEAF.
Good idea. I want to see how many problems if any they have with the X before jumping on that bandwagon.smkettner said:
Most of my life I bought used cars instead of new. If I could find a used Tesla in mint condition and at a good discount, why spend the money for a new one.
