Slow1
Well-known member
TonyWilliams said:1) Profitable for each individual station? Not a chance. We are attempting to promote EV travel, and while most people won't drive from Mexico to Canada, they might want to drive from Crescent City to Ukiah. Or San Diego to Yuma. Or Los Angeles to Las Vegas. Of Medford, Oregon, to Redding.
2) Profitable as a network? Maybe, in ten years, if there is sufficient electrcity cost mitigation (battery storage / solar). Demand fees alone can kill it. We also need a million EVs. We get to a million EVs by, in part, giving future EV owners the peace of mind that they aren't going to be stuck in one spot.
Fair points - but the "we are attempting to promote.." statement. Who is willing to invest the $'s to promote this? You acknowledge that it may be 10 years before it is profitable so who is going to pay for it? IF you are suggesting tax dollars then it could be done more quickly - but you have to convince more of the public that it is the best way to spend their money and I predict increased resistance as the costs go up.
The Catch-22 you suggest is certainly there - and likely is the best argument for investment of public funds. IF you can convince the public that it is in their best interest to support this solution.
TonyWilliams said:3) Long distances - you don't have to travel long distances, as discussed above.
Well - "Long distances" is somewhat of a vague term. I'd say that "long distance" in terms of an EV is anything that requires a re-charge in order to complete the trip. As the range of EV's increases, the definition of "long distance" will increase. So, when we get to your suggested "million EVs" on the road what percentage of those will actually need to recharge away from their base station on a regular basis? I submit that as range increases the demand for 'away from base' charging will decrease dramatically. I further suggest that the BEV market is moving quickly (relatively speaking) toward a 200-300 mile functional range. I expect this will likely end up being the optimal price/range breakpoint based on my understanding of the requirements for the vast majority (90+%) of all drivers, and likely will suffice for an even higher percentage of EV drivers.
Consider that gas stations have an advantage here - there is local demand just about everywhere. Thus the stations that service the longer distance travelers can achieve profitability meeting that local demand. Electric charging stations will have to manage only on those who have to charge. As long as folks can charge at home, I submit that the local demand for electric charging will in fact decrease from where it is now due to continued BEV range increases. IF one can charge more conveniently and at a lower cost at home each night, why go to a charging station? This is the quandary that hurts the build-out of charging networks.