Official Tesla Model S thread

[Zythryn]

...So just about anyone who is in the mid-large Mercedes class would be there. ...

That would probably make sense (though not real financial, once you consider capital cost).

But, we are talking about usual Civic buyers, suddenly buying a Model S.

BTW, when I brought this up a few pages back - it wasn't even saying anything about their decision. All I was saying was, Tesla won't be able to count on such buyers in the long term.

Well, actually by what you quoted, 'we' are talking Mercedes buyers. I would add to that BMW, Audi, some Infinity and Lexus buyers as well.

There are about 1,000,000 luxury car buyers a year. Tesla is looking to sell about 20,000 Model S a year. Basically looking for about 2% market share. I don't think that is unreasonable.

 

[TonyWilliams]

You're assuming Tesla will still be solvent at this time. I'm sure a lot of guys had their 2nd Delorean picked out as well.

... I'm getting a Model S, and I don't need to justify it to anyone, especially you.

Well said. Even if the detractors get their wish for a bankrupt Tesla and absolutely no "value" of anything they've done to date, you would still have a really cool car. There are already enough of them out in the wild that it won't be abandoned for specialty support (including folks who will swap out the thousands of Panasonic cells for new ones).

I can think of a LOT of car companies that are no longer around and many of their legacy cars are worth more than when new.

I fully believe that Tesla will morph into something like a 49% ownership by another big manufacturer who can label Tesla cars as their own (similar to the original NUMMI GM-Toyota concept). You'll have Toyota "BlueStars" and Tesla branded ones, too.

That's how Toyota will meet the next round of CARB rules after the Rav4 project ends in Sept 2015.

 

[Ingineer]

Very interesting take, Tony! I tend to agree!

I, for one, would be happy to figure out ways to support orphaned Tesla's should that ever happen.

-Phil

 

[Train]

Tesla has the mfr rate up to a level where the labor costs are reasonable, and they are making money on the Model S, they are on track for a $1.6 billion in Model S sales for 2013, can't wait for the 4th quarter numbers, it's going to cause a lot of pain for the pessimists.

So anyone who looks at the company from a pragmatic or objective financial position, they're called "detractors" or "pessimists."

Funny thing, many people extrapolated reservation numbers of the Leaf to equal sales. Now they're scratching their head because reality has come home to roost. For Tesla to produce 20,000 cars, they would have to produce far more cars than they ever have by a large margin. They'll have to overcome some major production issues to do that. And that assumes every reservation holder will hand over the cash when the time comes to purchase the vehicle.

And they aren't making a dime on the Model S yet. They are deeply in debt which is why they are trying to pull maintenance programs, battery guarantees, and price increases; anything to get more cash flowing. Right now, Tesla owes. Big time. We'll see what happening a year from now.

Getting a loan against your 401K to buy a $100,000 car, yikes. Pulling any of it out of your actual 401K to help pay for a $100,000 car. Frightening. But it's your money.

I'd wait until the people who can actually afford the car buy them. So in a couple years, if Tesla is still around, or the company that swallows them is making something similar, they'll be plenty to choose from and the prices will be lower for other models based on the same technology.

Again, emotion run amok. There are those people who stand in line for a $700 phones, too. It's sad and tragic, but there they are.

 

[surfingslovak]

It's sad and tragic, but there they are.

Remind me, why would that be sad and tragic?

 

[Train]

That much emotion over a phone. Perhaps not sad and tragic. Maybe it's sad and pathetic.

 

[surfingslovak]

That much emotion over a phone. Perhaps not sad and tragic. Maybe it's sad and pathetic.

Interesting. Perhaps we need more emotion then to ensure that the future is less pathetic

 

[Train]

You lost me there, bub.

 

[Zythryn]

That much emotion over a phone. Perhaps not sad and tragic. Maybe it's sad and pathetic.

Boy, you are getting about as personally insulting as you can get, aren't you.

Tesla was cash positive last week. By best estimates they are very close to, or may have reached 400 cars/week production, which equates to an annual production rate right around 20,000, which is their target.
As to their reservations, there is a big difference between the $99 Leaf reservation and a $5000 Model S reservation. Sure, some will drop out, but I expect they will have a lot more that follow through than Nissan did.

I would say your posts are anything but level headed pragmatism and far more emotion based than most people's here.

 

[mynameisjim]

I think there's a big difference between Nissans $100 reservation and Teslas $5,000 reservation. I'd bet tesla converts a higher percentage of reservations to sales.

 

[ebill3]

Maybe it's sad and pathetic.

Well, I don't own a $700 phone, and as opposed to sad, I'm elated that I expect my Tesla in about three months. And, I really don't consider myself painfully inadequate - I'm not as robust as I was at 40, but I still get things done.

Aw shucks, why are we feeding the troll?

Bill

 

[Train]

Boy, you are getting about as personally insulting as you can get, aren't you.

Tesla was cash positive last week. By best estimates they are very close to, or may have reached 400 cars/week production, which equates to an annual production rate right around 20,000, which is their target.
As to their reservations, there is a big difference between the $99 Leaf reservation and a $5000 Model S reservation. Sure, some will drop out, but I expect they will have a lot more that follow through than Nissan did.

I would say your posts are anything but level headed pragmatism and far more emotion based than most people's here.

Insulting? Geez, maybe some thicker skin is needed. I guess you may have been one of those people in line.

 

[mynameisjim]

Insulting? Geez, maybe some thicker skin is needed. I guess you may have been one of those people in line.

Perhaps some better observation skills are needed as you are talking to some reservation holders, orders, and owners.

 

[cdub]

I happen to agree with Train that anyone taking a loan or money out of their 401k for a luxury automobile has got their priorities out of wack.

Do I want a Tesla? Hells yes. But I'll wait until my fully paid for Leaf has a good 10 years under it's belt before I buy one.

By that time, if all goes well, I'll be able to actually afford one.

But that's just the Dave Ramsey in me.

 

[jkirkebo]

Not to mention my point was not spending that ridiculous an amount of money for a car in the first place if you're pinching pennies. How does someone go from Prius or a Leaf to a Tesla S? Only by draining your savings (a 401K, gads...even worse) or by paying an exorbitant monthly payment for what is just a car.

I could easily afford an ICE car as expensive as the Model S, but those vehicles just don't interest me at all. So I haven't bought very expensive cars before. When the Leaf became available, I got the first one delivered in Norway a little over a year ago. It replaced a 1989 VW Jetta

The Model S will replace a 9 year old VW Touran diesel. I could probably save up the whole amount for the P85 with all options in two years, but it doesn't make a lot of sense waiting since financing is cheap and the VW is very expensive to run and maintain ($3500 this year in repairs & service).

 

[mitch672]

Maybe it's sad and pathetic.

Well, I don't own a $700 phone, and as opposed to sad, I'm elated that I expect my Tesla in about three months. And, I really don't consider myself painfully inadequate - I'm not as robust as I was at 40, but I still get things done.

Aw shucks, why are we feeding the troll?

Bill

Exactly

I'm probably going to use $50K of my 401K, a it's sitting in cash earning a whopping ..03%
The interest you pay on a 401K loan goes into your OWN account, not some bankers. It's also an automatic payroll deduction to repay it. Or I might just write a check on my home equity line of credit, that makes the %1.99 interest deductible on my taxes... Or maybe I'll apply for $70K worth of loan from "Pentagon Federal" CU who is offering %1.5 car loans... Or maybe I'll just write a check, as I have cash to fully pay for it anyway.

I love having so many options because I worked hard all my life, and lets face it, I'm loaded

 

[jkirkebo]

That much emotion over a phone. Perhaps not sad and tragic. Maybe it's sad and pathetic.

I usually buy $700 phones. But I can't be bothered to wait in lines for it, and I only buy a new one approx. every 5 years anyway. My 3GS is 3.5 years old now.

Now the Sony KDL-65HX920 TV I bough a year ago, that I had to wait 3 months for. Worth the wait though

My motto is buy the best stuff available and keep it a LONG time. Much cheaper in the long run than buying cheap stuff that breaks and need frequent replacement. Our dishwasher is 14 years old, washing machine 12 years old and microwave is 18 years old. None have ever needed repair, and they were the most expensive models available when new. Still works better than 95% of the new stuff sold.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Train is hardly a lone voice.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-will-need-more-loans-to-stay-afloat-in-2013-2012-12-20?siteid=yhoof2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This guy may just be another Debbie Downer but this article sure makes it sound like they are hanging by a thread. Who knows though, "friends in high places" may keep Tesla around for a long time to come at the largesse of the taxpayer.

 

[mitch672]

Train is hardly a lone voice.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-will-need-more-loans-to-stay-afloat-in-2013-2012-12-20?siteid=yhoof2" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This guy may just be another Debbie Downer but this article sure makes it sound like they are hanging by a thread. Who knows though, "friends in high places" may keep Tesla around for a long time to come at the largesse of the taxpayer.

It's all "doom and gloom". Yes sir, the short sellers are getting mighty desperate and panicked these days. You do realize a coordinated anti-tesla attack was launched today... just a coincidence? Hardly, TSLA broke a new recent high yesterday. There are tremendous short positions in TSLA, they are taking a BEAT down right now. Don't believe half what you read in these articles, especially any from "John Petersen" (who has a vested interested in lead acid battery technology)

 

[Zythryn]

Hehe, yep good old John Petersen.
He has been anti-Tesla as long as I can remember. His lead battery company is the one hanging on by a thread.

****edit****
My bad, the article surprisingly enough wasn't from John Petersen.
However, after reading it, I am little more concerned than I was earlier. What the author didn't mention was that Tesla in the first half of the year sold basically no cars and only a few hundred in the third quarter. So it is not surprising their sales were extremely low. Sales of autos in the 4th quarter are 5 to 9 times sales in the first 3 quarters.

*************

Again, rather than opinions, how about some facts:

A) Tesla is a start up company, and as such, yes it is a risky stock.
B) There is always a chance a start-up company will fail.
C) Tesla, along with a number of other companies took government loans. Tesla has paid their first and second installments of the DOE loan. The second installment wasn't due until March, so they are ahead of schedule.
D) Earlier this month Tesla had their first cash positive week, at the beginning of December they were at about 200 cars/week production. They are now delivering VINs in the upper 2000s with Vins just over 3000 set for delivery by December 31st. This puts them well on their 2500-3000 target by the end of the year.
E) Tesla's annual target for 2013 is 20,000 cars which is 2% of the luxury car market. Few see this as an unreasonable number. To get to this level they need to produce 400 cars per week. Many think they have reached that, or are very very close.

Yes, the car industry is very difficult to break into, and the hurdles are high. But so far, Tesla has done a lot of things many people said they would never do. They have partnerships/investments with Toyota, Panasonic and Diamler.
I think they are well positioned and have as good a shot as any new auto manufacturer.
Is it a sure thing? No, of course not. But the government is getting all its money back from Tesla, which can't be said for some other auto companies