Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[EVDRIVER]

Should we all leverage our assets to get you a M3 so you can move on from this thread? You can have the 3 and the LEAF, that way you can still act like you hate Tesla. I may pass on my hologram reservation so I can give it to you. Why would I pass, because as much as I like the 3 I have a hard time swapping it for a S because it is not the same car.

Now I know you say there will be no short range 3's available this year, would you like to make a bet on that? Granted supplying many more numbers of a vehicle than projected while developing all the tech at speeds faster than other auto makers is very simple, they may have issues on schedules like other companies always do at even smaller numbers. We all know Elon is a slacker and with all his free time he should do better as huge companies like Nissan and GM do but let's reach here. Pizza bet? How about Pizzana? There is a catch, you need to test drive a model S or take a photo of a printout of this post on the dash of a M3. You will need to act fast on the latter with the 2 min limit presently imposed. I would suggest a complaint handout for the 3 since time will be limited but you can pass them out in the line to kill time. Perhaps an outline of all the things that Nissan did better with the LEAF would be a good compliment as well as some battery tips and tricks to keeping the pack from degrading.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

CNBC has lots of articles on Tesla and this one came up just now about delays and problems.

Here is my critique of this article. The headline and opening of the article makes it sound like battery [packs] (get the terminology right, please!) are still being manually assembled, but within the article it says this:

Once the machines in the factory were able to crank out bandoliers as fast or faster than the manual laborers, Tesla began sending Panasonic workers back to their employer, sources said.

Today, Tesla is winding down manual assembly as much as possible at the Gigafactory, a hopeful sign.

Note that this is past tense, and not so much different than what I thought/what we've been told that mid-December (mentioned elsewhere in the article) is when the bottleneck was resolved.

And then there is this:

Two current engineers told CNBC that they are concerned some of the batteries being shipped do not have the minimum gap required between lithium-ion cells. These engineers warned that this "touching cells" flaw could cause batteries to short out or, in worse cases, catch fire.

Does this even make sense? I am by no means an expert in 2170 cells, but am I interpreting this statement correctly? Aren't the jackets of the cells all at the same electrical potential (ground, if you will)? I don't see why they couldn't actually be touching, electrically. Of course this could just be sloppy reporting and what they are talking about are tolerances within the cells themselves, but then that would be a Panasonic issue, not a Tesla battery pack issue. I don't know--something just doesn't sound right to me there. Sounds like sensationalism more than anything.

Tesla came out swinging yesterday with a statement about the article, they thought it was trash.

As for manually created, I have no idea what it means anyway. Are people mixing the components of the battery in a slurry with their bare hands and then caking it within the battery's shape and layers, then soldering, battery by battery, the batteries into a long series, grabbing individual battery tabs from a parts bin? Or are they only doing the soldering? or are they just tightening a few screws on the case that a machine should be doing? Or none of these? Article makes no effort to explain.

And you are more an expert than the author of the article, because Tesla specifically address the assertion in the exact same way you just did.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/25/tesla-tsla-shares-fall-cnbc-model-3-delays-quality/

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

I want a SR Model 3 and I am estimated to have it available mid 2018, but I'm not optimistic about that timeline. If I were Tesla I would keep cranking out LR PUP as long as I can take orders. And unfortunately for me personally, there is no shortage of people lining up currently to spend $49k on the car. So getting my car may not happen soon unless I change my target, which is a minor possibility and would only happen if I could be sure I'd get full federal credit (again not holding out hope).

As for when tesla will have a barebones standard range for $35k literally buyable, it's anybody's guess.

If my life depended on it I would say we'll see at least one standard range Model 3 delivered to a customer this year

 

[lpickup]

And you are more an expert than the author of the article, because Tesla specifically address the assertion in the exact same way you just did.

https://electrek.co/2018/01/25/tesla-tsla-shares-fall-cnbc-model-3-delays-quality/

Well yes, and no. I did have a temporary brain lapse I need to own up to. Batteries in a pack are connected both serially and in parallel. So the negative terminals of individual cells are not going to necessarily be at the same potential, as Loren pointed out. However, the jackets are (or should be) insulated from the battery terminals and as Tesla states, it shouldn't matter if they touch each other, but it does sound like ideally there would be some amount of physical separation in case there are defects in the jacket that would potentially cause a short. Whether there really is any risk of manual assembly causing higher risk of insufficient separation, who knows, other than Tesla, and I'm not just going to automatically take them at their word. But I'm also not going to take the word of a journalist who doesn't know and may be relying on a non-expert and probably disgruntled former employee either.

Regardless, the whole issue seems moot at this point anyway.

 

[EVDRIVER]

I want a SR Model 3 and I am estimated to have it available mid 2018, but I'm not optimistic about that timeline. If I were Tesla I would keep cranking out LR PUP as long as I can take orders. And unfortunately for me personally, there is no shortage of people lining up currently to spend $49k on the car. So getting my car may not happen soon unless I change my target, which is a minor possibility and would only happen if I could be sure I'd get full federal credit (again not holding out hope).

As for when tesla will have a barebones standard range for $35k literally buyable, it's anybody's guess.

If my life depended on it I would say we'll see at least one standard range Model 3 delivered to a customer this year

They need to update their website as tis says I get my 3 AWD in February. It also says SR in Spring of this year :shock:

 

[lpickup]

They need to update their website as tis says I get my 3 AWD in February. It also says SR in Spring of this year :shock:

Really? Day 1 in-store non-owner here, but my estimator says Dec-Feb for first production (which I believe puts me in the next group after they clear out current owners and maybe very front of the line CA non-owners), SR = Early 2018, and Dual Motor = Seb - Nov '18 (I think that's the first time I've noticed such a specific range there, but since I'm not interested in AWD I haven't really been looking at that).

 

[hyperionmark]

Ya, no way my estimate is right either. Just reserved on this last Christmas day and it says I will receive by the end of 2018. Most likely closer to end of 2019.

 

[EVDRIVER]

They need to update their website as tis says I get my 3 AWD in February. It also says SR in Spring of this year :shock:

Really? Day 1 in-store non-owner here, but my estimator says Dec-Feb for first production (which I believe puts me in the next group after they clear out current owners and maybe very front of the line CA non-owners), SR = Early 2018, and Dual Motor = Seb - Nov '18 (I think that's the first time I've noticed such a specific range there, but since I'm not interested in AWD I haven't really been looking at that).

My LR was available to order a while ago. Just called them and they say likely June depending on delays. Also, western states are priority then others based on factory proximity. If you have ever complained about the car or defamed Tesla here then the priority drops significantly.

 

[lpickup]

My LR was available to order a while ago. Just called them and they say likely June depending on delays. Also, western states are priority then others based on factory proximity. If you have ever complained about the car or defamed Tesla here then the priority drops significantly.

LOL!

Still, that's quite a difference in the delivery estimate for AWD! For first production, my delivery window has been only a month behind current owners. Assuming yours actually says (or in theory would say) Feb - Apr, that's a 7 month difference, as compared to mine, just for being a west coast owner? Seems really excessive.

 

[EVDRIVER]

My LR was available to order a while ago. Just called them and they say likely June depending on delays. Also, western states are priority then others based on factory proximity. If you have ever complained about the car or defamed Tesla here then the priority drops significantly.

LOL!

Still, that's quite a difference in the delivery estimate for AWD! For first production, my delivery window has been only a month behind current owners. Assuming yours actually says (or in theory would say) Feb - Apr, that's a 7 month difference, as compared to mine, just for being a west coast owner? Seems really excessive.

Says Feb but on the generic choice says Spring. Spring goes into June..

 

[dgpcolorado]

My current reservation page:

The "First Production" estimate had been Nov '17 to Jan '18, which they hit (to my surprise). I get the sense, from discussion among those able to configure their Model 3s now, that many are waiting for the SR or, especially, the AWD version. Some are waiting for a future performance version and others are hoping for a white interior to be offered as an option.

For USA reservations, most of those who are/were Tesla owners are already able to configure and I would expect that first day USA reservation holders who are not Tesla owners will be able to configure in the next few weeks. Once the end of the full federal tax credit window nears, whether in June or September, those who are delaying their purchase may rush to configure even if their desired version isn't available yet. We shall see.

I like the S so much better than the 3 that I am leaning toward not using my reservation (I can't qualify for the federal tax credit anyway). I may use it to order a 3 for a friend* — he wants to test drive the 3 before he decides, so no hurry.


* With the caveat that I haven't thoroughly researched it, my understanding is that I can order the car and put his name on the delivery papers, much as one does with a family member.

 

[EVDRIVER]

My current reservation page:

The "First Production" estimate had been Nov '17 to Jan '18, which they hit (to my surprise). I get the sense, from discussion among those able to configure their Model 3s now, that many are waiting for the SR or, especially, the AWD version. Some are waiting for a future performance version and others are hoping for a white interior to be offered as an option.

For USA reservations, most of those who are/were Tesla owners are already able to configure and I would expect that first day USA reservation holders who are not Tesla owners will be able to configure in the next few weeks. Once the end of the full federal tax credit window nears, whether in June or September, those who are delaying their purchase may rush to configure even if their desired version isn't available yet. We shall see.

I like the S so much better than the 3 that I am leaning toward not using my reservation (I can't qualify for the federal tax credit anyway). I may use it to order a 3 for a friend* — he wants to test drive the 3 before he decides, so no hurry.


* With the caveat that I haven't thoroughly researched it, my understanding is that I can order the car and put his name on the delivery papers, much as one does with a family member.

Oddly, my delivery box options look and read different than those above, and mine shows Feb, Perhaps the next page after that selection? I never got a date option on that page.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Non-owner reserved last summer--was intent to do it shortly before they officially unveiled the car because I knew a big influx would hit thereafter (it did)--it says may-june for LR and mid 2018 for SR. I still have a car under lease so if it runs a bit long I'm fine with it. if it runs way long, not fine. Unfortunately they have not updated these estimates in months, even with the last admitted production slip.

 

[scottf200]

Non-owner reserved last summer--was intent to do it shortly before they officially unveiled the car because I knew a big influx would hit thereafter (it did)--it says may-june for LR and mid 2018 for SR. I still have a car under lease so if it runs a bit long I'm fine with it. if it runs way long, not fine. Unfortunately they have not updated these estimates in months, even with the last admitted production slip.

At least they are up to allowing prev Tesla owners who did *not* reserve the first day to start to configure. Next would be Non-owners.

Article: Tesla Model 3 now available beyond first-day reservation holders – check your account
Fred Lambert - Jan. 25th 2018 2:16 pm ET

Over the past two days, Electrek has received reports of Model 3 reservation holders who reserved after the first day and they are now able to configure their vehicles.

With this said, it appears to still be limited to current Tesla owners.

Interestingly, several Model 3 reservation holders who can now configure and order their vehicles are reporting that they never actually received an invite from Tesla.

They simply opened their Tesla account and found that they have access to the configurator, which was updated last week.
<snip>
Like I wrote earlier this week, I think the next big milestone will be opening Model 3 configurations and orders to reservation holders who are currently not Tesla owners, but opening it beyond first-day reservation holders is a step in the right direction.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Possibly, but the key issue is when the actual delivery will occur, i.e. very very unlikely in 2018. It all depends upon
if and when Tesla can "drive down" the M3 cost curve when fully burdened with Tesla's overhead costs, e.g. R&D, G&A,
and battery costs.

Tesla tells me 'early 2018' for my $36k Model 3 SR.

With current owners having the ability to jump the line, that is very likely a moving target.

 

[SageBrush]

Possibly, but the key issue is when the actual delivery will occur, i.e. very very unlikely in 2018. It all depends upon
if and when Tesla can "drive down" the M3 cost curve when fully burdened with Tesla's overhead costs, e.g. R&D, G&A,
and battery costs.

Tesla tells me 'early 2018' for my $36k Model 3 SR.

With current owners having the ability to jump the line, that is very likely a moving target.

You are getting quite practiced in FUD

 

[SageBrush]

My current reservation page:

My page is within a month of yours even though I am not a current Tesla owner
I've decided to wait for AWD. The decision was helped by my tax situation (similar to yours) which limits my federal tax credit to ~ 4k maximum.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Oddly, my delivery box options look and read different than those above, and mine shows Feb, Perhaps the next page after that selection? I never got a date option on that page.

Since you are in California I would have expected you to have earlier dates than I received. I was surprised that Tesla didn't slip my Nov to Jan time window (again) when reports of delays in production surfaced last fall. I was even more surprised when they actually hit the window and allowed me to configure earlier this month.

Perhaps the "take rate" on First Production has been low enough, as reservation holders wait for configurations more to their liking, that Tesla has been able to move through the list more quickly than many of us expected. Or, perhaps, there just weren't all that many Model 3 reservations by current USA Tesla owners to begin with.

 

[dgpcolorado]

My page is within a month of yours even though I am not a current Tesla owner
I've decided to wait for AWD. The decision was helped by my tax situation (similar to yours) which limits my federal tax credit to ~ 4k maximum.

Those of us in Colorado do have the advantage of the $5000 state tax credit. I think it starts phasing out after 2019 IIRC, so no hurry to use it. If I qualified for the federal tax credit, the combination of both state and federal credits ($12,500!) would likely tip me toward getting a Model 3, despite my strong preference for the S. But that isn't the case.

 

[EVDRIVER]

There has been a push to release the AWD versions sooner because many orders have been diverted to AWD and there is strong demand.