Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[lpickup]

So, most likely the M3 VINs may have been assigned relative to a deposit date and not a production date, which is atypical in the
automotive industry.

I don't think it's that either...VINs from day 1 reservationsists that finalized their order almost as soon as they received their invites on 11/21 have VINs all over the map. If you look at this crowd-sourced spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17XHQahHGwBjWgDFpJSSx3UOPZB8X4UUSSymD-3oUr1Q/edit#gid=0 and look at those that configured on 11/22 (probably the largest group that have VINs), we see the following VINs:
079X 15XX 16XX 1698 1727 1737 189X 1921 1927 199X 2502

However, while most of the cars that have configured so far are silver, the VINs do appear to line up somewhat with color, although I don't think there is enough data yet to really draw any conclusions. in particular the 19xx range seems to have examples for 3 different colors and the VIN 1921 (silver) in particular seems to break up a run of Reds. I have analyzed some of the other "parking lot reports" and it does appear that there is some evidence that they are building the cars in batches by color (assuming they are building them in VIN order) and then matching cars to buyers arbitrarily later on vs. making them to order.

Silver: 5xx 12xx 16xx 1698 17xx 1737 1921 28xx
White: 15xx
Red: 189x 1927
Blue: 199x 2564
Black: 2185

 

[GetOffYourGas]

it does appear that there is some evidence that they are building the cars in batches by color (assuming they are building them in VIN order) and then matching cars to buyers arbitrarily later on vs. making them to order.

I have to assume this was their plan from the beginning. You don't build a mass-market car to order. You build a ton of them and match requests to availability. If one combination's supply starts to dwindle, you make another batch. This is the way to gain the manufacturing efficiency that Tesla will need to make the Model 3 profitable.

 

[mtndrew1]

Based on the stream of recent Facebook and Instagram Model 3 delivery shots to non-employees combined with the TMC posts about rapid-fire delivery scheduling and VIN assignments it seems the Model 3 dam has broken.

I’d bet a dollar the company gets >2,500 Model 3s into customer hands in calendar 2017. We should know the exact numbers within the next two weeks when they release Q4 numbers.

As an aside, it seems like Tesla is poised for a moderate beat of its 100,000 vehicle 2017 delivery guidance. There don’t seem to be any showstoppers this quarter and demand appears strong.

 

[GRA]

Via IEVS:

Tesla Model 3 Battery Warranty Includes 70% Retention Guarantee

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-battery-warranty-include-70-retention-guarantee/

8 years/100k miles for the Standard Range battery, 8 years/120k miles for the Long Range battery. Now, will Nissan finally step up with the LEAF?

 

[cwerdna]

Via IEVS:

Tesla Model 3 Battery Warranty Includes 70% Retention Guarantee

https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-battery-warranty-include-70-retention-guarantee/

8 years/100k miles for the Standard Range battery, 8 years/120k miles for the Long Range battery. Now, will Nissan finally step up with the LEAF?

The other good news there is that the drive unit warranty matches the battery pack warranty.

Prior to this, it looked like there was no DU warranty beyond the 4 year/50K basic warranty. From https://www.tesla.com/presskit (just as it's been for a long time), for Model 3:

Warranty

Vehicle: 4 year, 50,000 mile limited warranty
Battery warranty: 8 year, 100,000 mile (120,000 mile with Long Range Battery)

 

[lorenfb]

So, most likely the M3 VINs may have been assigned relative to a deposit date and not a production date, which is atypical in the
automotive industry.

I don't think it's that either...VINs from day 1 reservationsists that finalized their order almost as soon as they received their invites on 11/21 have VINs all over the map. If you look at this crowd-sourced spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17XHQahHGwBjWgDFpJSSx3UOPZB8X4UUSSymD-3oUr1Q/edit#gid=0 and look at those that configured on 11/22 (probably the largest group that have VINs), we see the following VINs:
079X 15XX 16XX 1698 1727 1737 189X 1921 1927 199X 2502

However, while most of the cars that have configured so far are silver, the VINs do appear to line up somewhat with color, although I don't think there is enough data yet to really draw any conclusions. in particular the 19xx range seems to have examples for 3 different colors and the VIN 1921 (silver) in particular seems to break up a run of Reds. I have analyzed some of the other "parking lot reports" and it does appear that there is some evidence that they are building the cars in batches by color (assuming they are building them in VIN order) and then matching cars to buyers arbitrarily later on vs. making them to order.

Silver: 5xx 12xx 16xx 1698 17xx 1737 1921 28xx
White: 15xx
Red: 189x 1927
Blue: 199x 2564
Black: 2185

Then the VIN being quoted basically IDs the vehicle type, model, options, etc., but NOT the actual production number which
must always be unique to each vehicle. So these so-called VINs provide no insight into production numbers, i.e. a waste of time
and who cares.

 

[edatoakrun]

According to a document that was recently submitted to NHTSA. Tesla will begin affixing MY2018 VINs on December 22nd.

...The Model 3 is still only filed with the RWD Long Range version for 2018. No Certificate yet for the standard battery or AWD so I am guessing that those will not be shipping any time soon...

https://twitter.com/hoonable/status/944233239568318464

 

[EVDRIVER]

So, most likely the M3 VINs may have been assigned relative to a deposit date and not a production date, which is atypical in the
automotive industry.

I don't think it's that either...VINs from day 1 reservationsists that finalized their order almost as soon as they received their invites on 11/21 have VINs all over the map. If you look at this crowd-sourced spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17XHQahHGwBjWgDFpJSSx3UOPZB8X4UUSSymD-3oUr1Q/edit#gid=0 and look at those that configured on 11/22 (probably the largest group that have VINs), we see the following VINs:
079X 15XX 16XX 1698 1727 1737 189X 1921 1927 199X 2502

However, while most of the cars that have configured so far are silver, the VINs do appear to line up somewhat with color, although I don't think there is enough data yet to really draw any conclusions. in particular the 19xx range seems to have examples for 3 different colors and the VIN 1921 (silver) in particular seems to break up a run of Reds. I have analyzed some of the other "parking lot reports" and it does appear that there is some evidence that they are building the cars in batches by color (assuming they are building them in VIN order) and then matching cars to buyers arbitrarily later on vs. making them to order.

Silver: 5xx 12xx 16xx 1698 17xx 1737 1921 28xx
White: 15xx
Red: 189x 1927
Blue: 199x 2564
Black: 2185

Then the VIN being quoted basically IDs the vehicle type, model, options, etc., but NOT the actual production number which
must always be unique to each vehicle. So these so-called VINs provide no insight into production numbers, i.e. a waste of time
and who cares.

What is the order date for your Model 3?

 

[mtndrew1]

Edmunds looks to be receiving their long-term Model 3 shortly.

https://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-3/2018/long-term-road-test/introduction.html

 

[lpickup]

Then the VIN being quoted basically IDs the vehicle type, model, options, etc., but NOT the actual production number which
must always be unique to each vehicle. So these so-called VINs provide no insight into production numbers, i.e. a waste of time
and who cares.

No, I didn't say that either.

I said that VINs were not being ASSIGNED in numerical order. Not that they weren't being PRODUCED in numerical order. One reasonable scenario is that the number of cars that have been produced roughly matches the highest VIN, but not all have been matched with a buyer yet.

Another scenario is that some of the intervening (but unassigned) VINs have some kind of rework they are going through. To some extent there are probably examples of this, but my gut feel is that this is not a widespread phenomenon.

Now are VINs a waste of time altogether?

I don't believe so. You can obviously infer more production/deliveries based on the number of unique VINs that are observed. The highest VIN also puts an upper bound on the number of cars produced (but not necessarily delivered). So I think you can infer quite a bit from VIN observations. Maybe you are looking for something in particular (i.e. number of deliveries). For that, you'll just have to wait another week until Tesla announces their 4Q delivery numbers.

 

[edatoakrun]

TSLA is obviously intent on making the first model 3 customer deliveries as memorable as possible...

Yesterday at 3:11 PM
Call the day of to confirm your pickup. My delivery was this afternoon but "we pinged your car, it's still in transit." They were going to notify me of the delay but who knows, I could've been half way into the 1 hour trip before finding out. Re-scheduled for Saturday delivery.

Yesterday at 8:44 PM
My delivery was supposed to be today, but they called 4 hours before to say the car is still in Fremont. I’m in SoCal.

They are massively disorganized. Very hard to get straight answers. They said Saturday for me too, but when pressed, they could not actually confirm because they do not know if it truly will ship this week

Yesterday at 10:15 PM
My car delivery was supposed to be tonight at Costa Mesa. They called an hour before delivery and said the vehicle isn’t ready and needs a firmware update. When asked if this can be done remotely, they said it’s not possible.

This was after I called around 1pm to confirm that delivery was still happening today. Very disorganized and upset about clearing my schedule for this. They rescheduled me tentatively for tomorrow but wouldn’t commit to it.

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/model-3-arriving-december-28th.104836/#post-2479170

 

[lorenfb]

I said that VINs were not being ASSIGNED in numerical order. Not that they weren't being PRODUCED in numerical order. One reasonable scenario is that the number of cars that have been produced roughly matches the highest VIN, but not all have been matched with a buyer yet.

Another scenario is that some of the intervening (but unassigned) VINs have some kind of rework they are going through. To some extent there are probably examples of this, but my gut feel is that this is not a widespread phenomenon.

You're guessing!

 

[mtndrew1]

TSLA is obviously intent on making the first model 3 customer deliveries as memorable as possible...

This is pretty typical of Tesla’s end-of-quarter **** show. It’s the worst at the end of a given year of course as they scramble to get as many cars out the door as possible. My boss took delivery of her S this time last year and experienced a similar calamity.

She adores the car though and wants to add a 3 to replace their Prius so it didn’t have a lasting effect. That said the company really needs to improve in this respect.

 

[lpickup]

I said that VINs were not being ASSIGNED in numerical order. Not that they weren't being PRODUCED in numerical order. One reasonable scenario is that the number of cars that have been produced roughly matches the highest VIN, but not all have been matched with a buyer yet.

Another scenario is that some of the intervening (but unassigned) VINs have some kind of rework they are going through. To some extent there are probably examples of this, but my gut feel is that this is not a widespread phenomenon.

You're guessing!

Yes, educated and reasonable guess. More likely than VINs just being completely randomly assigned, which is basically what you are saying.

 

[Durandal]

A lot of the issues that Tesla is having with Model 3 deliveries will iron out slowly, by the time I get my Model 3 to replace our Nissan Versa Crapbox they will have them worked out, and we will be driving BEVs exclusively between the Model 3 and the Leaf. (Will keep the Versa as a backup. I prefer an N+1 on most things.)

The higher volume of the Model 3 will force Tesla to get their act together on deliveries. As far as I'm concerned, they could simply drop my Model 3 off into a parking lot with a bunch of others, send me an activation code to register for my car, pull up the app on my phone, then just hop into the car and drive off. I don't need to interact with a delivery specialist, as long as there are informational videos to watch from my computer or within the car itself. All of the paperwork aspects could be handled electronically or via FedEx for all I care.

 

[Randy]

Picked up VIN # 1927 in San Diego on Tuesday 12/26. Multicoat Red with 19" wheels. Delivery was supposed to be on Wednesday, but they were able to get it done one day earlier. I'm still soaking in all the details, but it's a great car so far.

Not having a driver's display is not that big a deal, since information like your speed is on the upper left corner of the display and quite visible. The seats are very comfortable, steering is very tight (in the middle setting on the display), and regen braking much like the Model S.

The phone app works well for the "key", and they also provided two of the credit card keys that you can carry in your wallet or purse.

When the battery is full, the car indicates 310 miles. Level 2 charging max is 48 amps. The stereo sounds better than expected. Not sure yet if I'll add another subwoofer (since I usually do that with my cars)...

Insurance from Ameriprise is $355 for 6 months...

I'm enjoying the car very much so far, and will post more as I get more driving time...

 

[SageBrush]

Congrats, Randy !

Tesla upped their VIN registrations to 3500 a week this week. Too early I think to say with confidence that we now have a 3500/week production rate but it may be so. We'll know for sure if they keep up this registration rate for another couple of weeks, or Elon confirms it in the upcoming finance call.

 

[Zythryn]

Congratulations Randy!
I got to see and sit in one for the first time yesterday.
I am so very impressed, and far less patient than I was prior to that.

Hopefully within a couple of weeks I will get my confirguation notice

 

[jhm614]

Picked up VIN # 1927 in San Diego on Tuesday 12/26. Multicoat Red with 19" wheels.

Congrats, brother!!

 

[TonyWilliams]

Serial 2292 was picked up Friday, 29 Dec 2017, from the San Diego Service Center today.

It is a 2017 Model

Blue / Black / 18” wheels