Herm
Well-known member
edatoakrun says:
Exactly how does battery leasing drop the total cost "drastically"?
Several ways.. you are decoupling the no. 1 wear item in a BEV from the vehicle itself, manufacturer's warranty expenses on the car will be lower and thus price can be lower.. obviously the car itself is much cheaper, even cheaper than ICE once mass production sets in. The battery lease is now a monthly payment substituting gasoline payments, its warranty can also be degraded to the term of the lease.. once the battery is expended it can be used for stationary storage and generate another profit stream for the leasing company. You could always opt out and buy your own battery, choosing its size and warranty level.
Dont forget PBP plans to sell miles.. thus if you dont drive much you will pay much less, essentially you pay only for what you use.. for some people that will be a big savings.
Personally I would buy the car, opt for a 3 year battery lease, and opt-out of the swap package (unless its free).. also I would probably buy a state-of-the-art replacement at the end of the lease, or perhaps go two cycles and then buy once they get down to $200 per kwh. Perhaps used 3 year old batteries will be really cheap..lots of options.
edatoakrun says:
How will the cost of building battery swap stations every 60-100 miles across the US, instead of fast charge stations, be "minimal"?
Thats crazy talk, I never mentioned anything like that.. you would be much better off having the Feds build quick charge stations (50-100kw) across the nations hwy network. I prefer on-the-run wireless recharging myself, mostly to support long distance trucking... but passenger cars can also piggy ride on the system. Both these systems should be setup by the Feds, to promote interstate commerce. Forcing truck drivers to stop for 30 minutes and take a nap every couple hundred miles would really cut down on "incidents".
edatoakrun says:
And how much will the costs for battery swap locations increase if they have to stock multiple battery designs, fully-charged, for multiple vehicles?
People will not really use the swap stations, they are just there for peace of mind. PBP plans to use 3 different designs. I would guess 15 batteries of each type would deal with even continuous swaps under worst case conditions.. a further guess is that the stations will start with 3 of each and see how it goes. This is still much cheaper than setting up a traditional gas station with its underground tanks and environmental permits. While the batteries sit on standby at the station they can also be used for grid stabilization purposes, making money.. after all they are connected to the grid already. PBP will direct you automatically to the nearest station with available stock, thus minimizing the need for capital. Note that grid stabilization will not wear out a battery, they are only cycled 1-2% at most... it will not even wear out an almost worn out battery.
I actually dont see a point to automating the swap, set up the stations at the rear of car washes or garages.. pay teenagers to do it for $10 an hour.. if properly designed its safe and foolproof, and you can tip the teenager to get a "good" battery... make sure he is not texting his GF instead of bolting down the battery.
edatoakrun says:
Or will each manufacture have to build their own network of "swap stations"?
Unless they want to use PBP standard battery sizes and connection protocols.. but they would be crazy not to.. for many reasons (one of them liability). Hopefully it will be an open standard, thus competition will keep those packs cheap. Traditionally car manufacturers have stayed in business selling cars, not the gasoline needed to run those cars. Making their cars compatible with the PBP system opens up more markets.
Exactly how does battery leasing drop the total cost "drastically"?
Several ways.. you are decoupling the no. 1 wear item in a BEV from the vehicle itself, manufacturer's warranty expenses on the car will be lower and thus price can be lower.. obviously the car itself is much cheaper, even cheaper than ICE once mass production sets in. The battery lease is now a monthly payment substituting gasoline payments, its warranty can also be degraded to the term of the lease.. once the battery is expended it can be used for stationary storage and generate another profit stream for the leasing company. You could always opt out and buy your own battery, choosing its size and warranty level.
Dont forget PBP plans to sell miles.. thus if you dont drive much you will pay much less, essentially you pay only for what you use.. for some people that will be a big savings.
Personally I would buy the car, opt for a 3 year battery lease, and opt-out of the swap package (unless its free).. also I would probably buy a state-of-the-art replacement at the end of the lease, or perhaps go two cycles and then buy once they get down to $200 per kwh. Perhaps used 3 year old batteries will be really cheap..lots of options.
edatoakrun says:
How will the cost of building battery swap stations every 60-100 miles across the US, instead of fast charge stations, be "minimal"?
Thats crazy talk, I never mentioned anything like that.. you would be much better off having the Feds build quick charge stations (50-100kw) across the nations hwy network. I prefer on-the-run wireless recharging myself, mostly to support long distance trucking... but passenger cars can also piggy ride on the system. Both these systems should be setup by the Feds, to promote interstate commerce. Forcing truck drivers to stop for 30 minutes and take a nap every couple hundred miles would really cut down on "incidents".
edatoakrun says:
And how much will the costs for battery swap locations increase if they have to stock multiple battery designs, fully-charged, for multiple vehicles?
People will not really use the swap stations, they are just there for peace of mind. PBP plans to use 3 different designs. I would guess 15 batteries of each type would deal with even continuous swaps under worst case conditions.. a further guess is that the stations will start with 3 of each and see how it goes. This is still much cheaper than setting up a traditional gas station with its underground tanks and environmental permits. While the batteries sit on standby at the station they can also be used for grid stabilization purposes, making money.. after all they are connected to the grid already. PBP will direct you automatically to the nearest station with available stock, thus minimizing the need for capital. Note that grid stabilization will not wear out a battery, they are only cycled 1-2% at most... it will not even wear out an almost worn out battery.
I actually dont see a point to automating the swap, set up the stations at the rear of car washes or garages.. pay teenagers to do it for $10 an hour.. if properly designed its safe and foolproof, and you can tip the teenager to get a "good" battery... make sure he is not texting his GF instead of bolting down the battery.
edatoakrun says:
Or will each manufacture have to build their own network of "swap stations"?
Unless they want to use PBP standard battery sizes and connection protocols.. but they would be crazy not to.. for many reasons (one of them liability). Hopefully it will be an open standard, thus competition will keep those packs cheap. Traditionally car manufacturers have stayed in business selling cars, not the gasoline needed to run those cars. Making their cars compatible with the PBP system opens up more markets.
