My Town Ran Out of Gas... People Raiding Gas Stations related to Recent News About Pipeline Spill

[RegGuheert]

As to lots of ways to charge an EV, that's true for a small % of the population who have their own source of electricity, whether a genset or PV/wind etc. with battery storage.

I know lots of people with generators at home. Many of those generators are connected to 1000-gallon propane tanks. More-and-more people can generate electricity from PV and batteries as homepower options become more competitive with grid power.

By contrast, I know of no one who makes their own gasoline at home and only a couple of people who make their own biodiesel fuel. In the case of biodiesel, the raw materials are not made at home but rather come from elsewhere.

 

[GRA]

As to lots of ways to charge an EV, that's true for a small % of the population who have their own source of electricity, whether a genset or PV/wind etc. with battery storage.

I know lots of people with generators at home. Many of those generators are connected to 1000-gallon propane tanks. More-and-more people can generate electricity from PV and batteries as homepower options become more competitive with grid power.

By contrast, I know of no one who makes their own gasoline at home and only a couple of people who make their own biodiesel fuel. In the case of biodiesel, the raw materials are not made at home but rather come from elsewhere.

Reg, the fact that you know lots of people with gensets is neither here nor there; I know lots of people who live off the grid using RE (including the people operating the couple of hundred systems I sold), but both groups make up a tiny fraction of the population, especially in urban areas. If the grid goes down, most of them aren't going to be able to work regardless of if they can charge at home, because there's no power for lights, climate control, computers and printers, or all the other essential functions at most businesses. Out here in earthquake country, we all know the next one's going to happen at some point, but the % of people who've taken even the most basic precautions (water, food, flashlights, battery/PV-powered radios etc.) is small. The % who've done more than that is miniscule.

 

[rexki]

Colonial Pipeline company: Products move through the main lines at a rate of about 3 to 5 miles per hour (4.8 to 8.0 km/h). It generally takes from 14 to 24 days for a batch to get from Houston, Texas to the New York harbor, with 18.5 days the average time.

Now I can see why they are hoarding gasoline - if it were fixed Saturday 9/24 - its would not be until October 12 / 13 before gasoline arrives in New York assuming its going the whole way.

Per another website: Fifteen associated tank farms store more than 1.2 billion US gallons (4,500,000 m3) of fuel and provide a 45-day supply for local communities. It appears that hoarding has changed that to 5 days!!

8 airports are service directly from this pipeline per their website?
1. Atlanta,
2. Nashville,
3. Charlotte,
4. Greensboro,
5. Raleigh-Durham,
6. Dulles - Colonial Line 3 - 579,000-barrel settling tank farm - also started with Plantation Pipeline first so they might have more resiliency?
7. Baltimore-Washington International,
8. Newark

Could be more than Gas lines at your local gas station - less seafood, delayed Amazon shipments ??? Amazing just two pipline companies supplying almost 100% of the South Eastern and Northeast US. Sounds like a National security risk bigger than the miliraty action to keep the Strait of Hormuz open!!

South Korea's National Pension Service and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (aka Keats Pipeline Investors LP, 23.44% stake ownership) in our National security probelm

 

[GRA]

Colonial Pipeline company: Products move through the main lines at a rate of about 3 to 5 miles per hour (4.8 to 8.0 km/h). It generally takes from 14 to 24 days for a batch to get from Houston, Texas to the New York harbor, with 18.5 days the average time.

Now I can see why they are hoarding gasoline - if it were fixed Saturday 9/24 - its would not be until October 12 / 13 before gasoline arrives in New York assuming its going the whole way.

8 airports are service directly from this pipeline per their website?
1. Atlanta,
2. Nashville,
3. Charlotte,
4. Greensboro,
5. Raleigh-Durham,
6. Dulles,
7. Baltimore-Washington International,
8. Newark

Could be more than Gas lines at your local gas station - less seafood, delayed Amazon shipments ??? Amazing just two pipline companies supplying almost 100% of the South Eastern and Northeast US. Sounds like a National security risk bigger than the miliraty action to keep the Strait of Hormuz open!!

The airports you list would presumably be getting Jet A/A-1 rather than gasoline through the pipeline, and I imagine that would need to be kept separate. They apparently have two pipelines; the leak is in Line 1, and they're sending as much as possible through Line 2, which appears to be normally used for distillate (including jet, diesel, heating oil etc.). Pipelines were considered much better from a security risk standpoint in war (cheaper too) than the other method of moving the stuff, by sea, as was demonstrated during the second "Happy time" of the U-boats in 1942, operating off the east coast and in the Gulf of Mexico and sinking numerous tankers - See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Happy_Time
and in particular the "Chronology of attacks off the North American coast" for the high % of tankers among the victims.

 

[rexki]

My guess is you are correct and this means that Jet fuel is not flowing on line 2 and has been taken over with automobile gasoline. Lets hope they have some great bypass valves and ways to change the configuration but likely will still get hit with the speed in the pipeline and have many days between any product shifts since they are mixing 2 pipes to make one end to end pipe.

 

[GRA]

My guess is you are correct and this means that Jet fuel is not flowing on line 2 and has been taken over with automobile gasoline. Lets hope they have some great bypass valves and ways to change the configuration but likely will still get hit with the speed in the pipeline and have many days between any product shifts since they are mixing 2 pipes to make one end to end pipe.

Seems like they're going to build a temporary bypass around the leak on Line 1, which I'd think could be completed fairly quickly, assuming the leak's in a single section or two of pipe.

 

[rexki]

From what I understand the area is Quarantined off and they have not been able to dig or evaluate because of the risk of open explosions due to open "ponding" of the 114,000 BTU stuff. There is a no fly zone as well due to vapor ingestion into an aircraft engine??

A 3,095-foot pipe with an inside diameter of 36 inches has a volume of 163,650 gallons. If the distance between the pump interval is 25 miles, then there would be 6,642,498 maximum leak if shut down the second the leak was detected.

There are 325,853 gallons in a acre foot, This would then represent 20.38 acres of gasoline 1 foot deep. If the average 18 wheel fuel tanker holds 10,000 gallons this would take 664 trucks to carry the leak offsite. If each truck took 1 hour to cycle the site the and you had 4 trucks going simultaneously this would take 7 24 hour days to get the leak moved offsite.

 

[TimLee]

But they stated 250,000 gallons leaked.

You seem to be assuming the entire length of the pipeline emptied.
That surely isn't the case.

The downstream pumping station would isolate .
Probably the upstream too.
Only empty pipe that has to be filled is near the two mile bypass.

No long delay once the bypass is installed.

 

[RegGuheert]

Reg, the fact that you know lots of people with gensets is neither here nor there; I know lots of people who live off the grid using RE (including the people operating the couple of hundred systems I sold), but both groups make up a tiny fraction of the population, especially in urban areas. If the grid goes down, most of them aren't going to be able to work regardless of if they can charge at home, because there's no power for lights, climate control, computers and printers, or all the other essential functions at most businesses. Out here in earthquake country, we all know the next one's going to happen at some point, but the % of people who've taken even the most basic precautions (water, food, flashlights, battery/PV-powered radios etc.) is small. The % who've done more than that is miniscule.

You seem to be missing the major paradigm shift which is occurring as we speak: Centralized electricity generation is giving way to decentralized electricity generation. This is occurring because the cost of centralized production and distribution of electricity is increasing while the cost of decentralized production and distribution of electricity is decreasing. In some places such as Hawaii and parts of Australia, decentralized generation WITH STORAGE has already dropped below the price of grid electricity. Decentralized power has significant advantages over the legacy approach invented by Nikola Tesla. Among the many benefits are the elimination of single- or even multi-point failures, the many benefits of massive amounts of redundancy and electricity production without the commensurate consumption of fuel and emission of pollution.

Electric vehicles are an important part of this transition. If net vehicle metering becomes a reality, then they will become a viable storage option for people throughout the world (regardless of whether they own a home or not).

OP is experiencing for the first time the real benefits of having an EV available for those times when the centralized systems fail. In the future, many will have this capability coupled with significant on-site electricity generation and storage capabilities (some BEV, some stationary). Truly, there is no reason why someone with a 100 kWh BEV and PV panels will have to even experience a loss of electricity or fuel for their vehicle.

I understand that this flies in the face of your vision of utopia in which everyone moves into the city and lives in multiperson dwellings with centralized everything. As you say, that "is neither here nor there".

I'm sure this will not be a transition which occurs without a fight, as centralists realize that there is real power in centralized control of fuel and electricity. They will fight to support centralized solutions such as H2 to try to maintain control. In the end, they will fail since there are too many benefits provided by making this transition.

 

[rexki]

But they stated 250,000 gallons leaked.

You seem to be assuming the entire length of the pipeline emptied.
That surely isn't the case.

The downstream pumping station would isolate .
Probably the upstream too.
Only empty pipe that has to be filled is near the two mile bypass.

No long delay once the bypass is installed.

I hope your right Tim - The initial leak estimate started at 42,000 gallons the it went to 252,000 gallons - now they are saying it could be 8,000 barrels @42 gallons/barrel = 336,000 gallons.

It appears the temporary bypass may be in place claiming 2.5 miles of pipe. The pictures of the pipe being held up with railroad timber squares and wedges does not look very safe to me but I am not an engineer. Lets hope its just a 10 million dollar fix for 2-3 weeks. At 1$/barrel transportation cost it will only take them 10 million barrels to recoup this bypass cost or 22 days.

If the leak was isolated at 2 miles or less between control valves and it appears there is some product left in the pipe then this could be the valid logic of only 336,000 gallons leaked. The 3,095 foot 36" pipe 163,650 gallons - Ask.com answer I found could have been from a pipeline guy who knew the typical distance between control valves? 2 control valves distances would be 327,300 gallons. I am not a pipeline guy.

I never stated or assumed the whole pipeline emptied. It appears you can run batches of separate product down a pipeline simultaneously due to the pump station intervals and ability to offload the product at key exit points. Some pump intervals appear at 40-80 mile segments. Control valves have failed in previous NTSB reported Colonial accidents - SCADA or human controller failure.

25 miles already discussed is monumental but it appears things (future accidents) could get worse than that!

It appears the "Control Valves" are the real catastrophic event deterrent. June 26, 1996 in Fork Shoals SC , Colonial leaked 957,600 gallons of fuel and it made it to the Ready River and cost 20-30 million in cleanup. Today dollars 100 million. I found 7 historic NTSB "leak" events including this one attributable to Colonials super large 36" pipeline to the normal 16-24 inch pipelines.

 

[rexki]

Good news of progress - Just released from Colonial here - https://helena.colonialresponse.com/category/news-updates/

Posted on September 20, 2016 by chrismcgee
SHELBY COUNTY, Ala. – Colonial Pipeline issued the following update this morning regarding its response to a product release in Shelby Co., Ala., as well as ongoing efforts to install a bypass segment on Line 1 which is expected to allow for the safe and expeditious restoration of system-wide service.

Construction, fabrication and positioning of the bypass segment around the leak site is complete. Colonial is in the process of executing a hydrostatic test of the segment, which is approximately 500 feet in length, to ensure its structural integrity.

Upon successful completion of the hydrostatic test, Colonial Pipeline will begin the process of tying the bypass segment into the main line (Line 1) and preparing for a safe restart of that line. Based on operational progress made to date and the anticipated schedule of work ahead, Colonial Pipeline now projects a Line 1 restart of tomorrow, Wednesday, September 21.

When Line 1 restarts, it will take several days for the fuel delivery supply chain to return to normal. As such, some markets served by Colonial Pipeline may experience, or continue to experience, intermittent service interruptions. Colonial continues to move as much gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as possible and will continue to do so until markets return to normal.

 

[rexki]

The math of the pipeline spills is staggering in the time frame the leaks start and the time the leak is noticed /detected by an innocent by-standard 4 out 5 times and then final shutdown of the pipe when the pressure goes to standard local atmospheric pressure and stops leaking.

Here's the math I came up with and again I am not a pipeline guy or engineer.

If the bypass on line 1 is 500 feet (as Colonial claims in the press release) to navigate over line 2, then parallel and then cross back over - let say the Line 1 damage is 400 feet long or shorter since there must be some control valves in this "Suspect Segment".

1. If the fuel distillate product was traveling the most conservative of 3 miles per hour at the time of the incident then that means 4.4 feet of pipeline fluid per second. (5,280 feet * 3 mph / 3600 seconds per hour).

2. This represents 232 gallons in this 4.4 feet segment per second. (3,095 feet @ 163,650 gallons, 4.4 feet is 0.001421648 of this 3,095 feet . multiplied by 163,650 gallons comes to 232)

3. If the latest Colonial estimate of the spill being 8,000 barrels @42/b comes to 327,300 gallons, it would take 1,444 seconds to dump out if the pipe was fully severed and exit pressure allowed full flow - not very likely but worst case scenario.

4. 1,444 seconds comes to 24 plus minutes.

Lets say the leak occurred at 10% full flow rate then this means it leaked 4 hours before shutdown. Remember detection was a miner worker on foot and smelled the leak. Historical 7 major NTSB leaks I could find, 6 of the 7 occurred since 199, means an average major leak every 4 years for Colonial. Assuming average cost per leak at $20 million, this represents 42 days of revenue on one pipeline or 2.8% of gross revenue over the 4 year interval.

If they were to add an automated leak detector (if they exist?) every mile at a cost of $5,000 each that would come to (5,500 miles time 5,000) $27,500,000 - about the same price this spill will cost them?

What would be the cost of ground water contamination occurring to a 1 million population? BILLLIONS!!

Here is the Google maps link to the area they are working on - https://www.google.com/maps/place/Helena,+AL/@33.2342086,-86.9197687,774m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x88892098222119fd:0x713fbf2966c67788!8m2!3d33.296224!4d-86.8436004

Between the pipeline and the summer gasoline grade lake there is what appears to be an active oil well - coincidence?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I've always thought any significant disruption in gasoline supply would do more to change the public mindset regarding EVs than anything. The old saw "Why would I want a car that takes hours to charge and only goes 60 miles I can pull in anywhere, fill up in two minutes and go 400 miles" doesn't play when you're sitting in line for three hours.

 

[rexki]

Another great article (dated 10/20/1998) found from one of the national labs - Brookhaven in NY - http://www.ecd.bnl.gov/pubs/BNL65970.pdf

Transport versus Spill Magnitudes and Frequency of Leaks

Each day the Colonial Pipeline system of 5,349 miles (about 2.7% of the nationwide pipeline lengths) delivers about 80 million gallons of fuels. At peak, the main trunkline from Houston to New York Harbor transports about 2.5 million GPH of liquid fuels through a 4-foot diameter pipeline at about 4.8 mph (~115 miles per day). Their total annual product shipments constitute about 17% of nationwide pipeline deliveries, about twice that of the next largest transporter.

In the 29-year period from 1968 to 1997, a total of 194 spills were reported to the Federal Office of Pipeline Safety (OPS) for an average of 6.7 per year or 1 every year per 800 miles. As a percentage of Colonial’s annual delivery, however, total annual leaked product is significantly less
than 0.001%. The problem is that the magnitude of annual delivery is huge!

In a recent 5-year period (1991-1995), the 64 recorded Colonial spills were equivalent to 12.8 per year or 1 every year per 400 miles. Thus, the number of incidents, although small on a per-mile basis, appears to be escalating. In that last reported 5-year period, the cost to Colonial in
environmental damages was $22.5 million, not including the value of lost product and downtime.

Finally, in November 1997, Colonial agreed to pay $4 million in damages for a single spill on March 28, 1993. Although more than 91% of the product was recovered, Colonial had to bear those costs plus the legal expenses during the more than 4-year settlement study.

Thus, the environmental and consequential financial incentive is in place to promote the evaluation of new, promising, leak detection and pinpointing processes.

 

[GRA]

Reg, the fact that you know lots of people with gensets is neither here nor there; I know lots of people who live off the grid using RE (including the people operating the couple of hundred systems I sold), but both groups make up a tiny fraction of the population, especially in urban areas. If the grid goes down, most of them aren't going to be able to work regardless of if they can charge at home, because there's no power for lights, climate control, computers and printers, or all the other essential functions at most businesses. Out here in earthquake country, we all know the next one's going to happen at some point, but the % of people who've taken even the most basic precautions (water, food, flashlights, battery/PV-powered radios etc.) is small. The % who've done more than that is miniscule.

You seem to be missing the major paradigm shift which is occurring as we speak: Centralized electricity generation is giving way to decentralized electricity generation. <snip>

Missed it? Hell, I was in on the very early stages of it, Reg, but it's going to take a very long time to come about. Here's one forecast: 12% will have distributed electricity generation in the U.S. by 2035. http://www.off-grid.net/12-population-will-go-off-grid-accenture/

I understand that this flies in the face of your vision of utopia in which everyone moves into the city and lives in multiperson dwellings with centralized everything. As you say, that "is neither here nor there".

And once again, I point out that it's not my vision of utopia, it's what is happening in urban areas around the world, mostly by choice. If someone wants to live in a McMansion in a low-density, low-efficiency exurb, fine by me, but they should bear the full energy and environmental costs of their decision (as should everyone of theirs).

I'm sure this will not be a transition which occurs without a fight, as centralists realize that there is real power in centralized control of fuel and electricity. They will fight to support centralized solutions such as H2 to try to maintain control. In the end, they will fail since there are too many benefits provided by making this transition.

Benefits and disadvantages, as with all decisions, and people will choose which are most important to them. I expect that most people will choose the same as before option, but with gradual expansion of distributed power as PV on rooftops becomes mandatory, and micro-grids become more common, fuel cells for stationary home/business CHP usage expands, etc.

 

[RegGuheert]

I'm sure this will not be a transition which occurs without a fight, as centralists realize that there is real power in centralized control of fuel and electricity. They will fight to support centralized solutions such as H2 to try to maintain control. In the end, they will fail since there are too many benefits provided by making this transition.

Benefits and disadvantages, as with all decisions, and people will choose which are most important to them.

[/quote]My point here is that the utilities are ALREADY starting to fight this transition. That will intensify over time. Right now, they can fight by eliminating net metering, as happened in Nevada. But the availability of affordable, efficient storage batteries puts an absolute cap on what utilities can charge, just as solar with net metering has done.

 

[GRA]

I'm sure this will not be a transition which occurs without a fight, as centralists realize that there is real power in centralized control of fuel and electricity. They will fight to support centralized solutions such as H2 to try to maintain control. In the end, they will fail since there are too many benefits provided by making this transition.

Benefits and disadvantages, as with all decisions, and people will choose which are most important to them.

My point here is that the utilities are ALREADY starting to fight this transition. That will intensify over time. Right now, they can fight by eliminating net metering, as happened in Nevada. But the availability of affordable, efficient storage batteries puts an absolute cap on what utilities can charge, just as solar with net metering has done.

Yes, storage costs will be the determining factor. The moment that utlilities boost the price of service charges for PV/wind etc. grid-intertie owners above the cost of storage, people will go off-grid in increasing numbers. But for decades they will still represent a small % of the total population.

 

[RegGuheert]

Yes, storage costs will be the determining factor. The moment that utlilities boost the price of service charges for PV/wind etc. grid-intertie owners above the cost of storage, people will go off-grid in increasing numbers. But for decades they will still represent a small % of the total population.

In Hawaii, it will be a significant portion of the population rather quickly. PV has grown so quickly that storage has now become mandatory to make it work. Still, it is cheaper than grid power.

 

[GRA]

Yes, storage costs will be the determining factor. The moment that utlilities boost the price of service charges for PV/wind etc. grid-intertie owners above the cost of storage, people will go off-grid in increasing numbers. But for decades they will still represent a small % of the total population.

In Hawaii, it will be a significant portion of the population rather quickly. PV has grown so quickly that storage has now become mandatory to make it work. Still, it is cheaper than grid power.

Sure, with sky-high (for the U.S.) utility prices and good wind and PV resources.

 

[jkline]

You'll be glad you have an EV when Iran puts the squeeze on the Straight of Hormuz.