smkettner said:
I would like to see the price of hydrogen if it was to cover the full operating cost and provide a 10% return on the initial cost.
I agree it would probably be lower cost to give 50% or more direct rebate on any EV.
that depends
alot on which day in the week has the most expensive capacity requirements.
lets say Friday requires 200kg H2 per 24hr day, but 160kg H2 for peak capacity. (and 180kg H2 for 1hour capacity)
suppose a friendly H2 station has
peak capacity 25kg
1 hour capacity 160kg
24 hour capacity 200kg
on Friday it is 6x under capacity. Or put another way, a H2 station must have 6x the name plate capacity if it is to provide acceptable service.
this is really expensive with 700bar h2, why did a normal service station have 6 browsers when 1 browser could handle the 24hour capacity requirements. Initial rollout should be ok, H2 cars are so scarce, that they stay below the 1/6 of station requirements, but at that rate, the stations will never make money.
other days are easier, but H2 wait failure once a week is not acceptable when the competitors can top up to 200+miles at home overnight.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-07/california-considers-change-to-fuel-rules-as-tesla-cries-foul
once Tesla, Nissan and Chevy start selling 200mile EVs in CARB states, the price of ZEV credits will fall so far that it remain so much cheaper to buy a credit from Tesla/ Nissan/GM than it is for a car manufacturer to subsidize its H2 fool cell rollout.
Thus starts a death spiral, as H2 vehicles disappear from manufacturers roll out forecast, the station make even more loss.
Combined with extra H2 stations courtesy of VW diesel scandal settlement. and the H2 stations make even greater loss, thus the cycle self perpetuates.
I don't think this is a acceptable for CARB, they must restrict the transfer/value of BEV ZEVs if H2 is not implode by 12 months after Tesla model 3 rollout.
