Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

[RegGuheert]

I have "conditional respect" for Michio Kaku, depending on what he is talking about. He lost points with me here.

Here’s why this expert physicist thinks Toyota’s hydrogen fuel-cell car is ‘perfect’ (Geekwire)

I wonder if he has some ulterior motive, or "arrangement" with Toyota. Or maybe he really doesn't know better?

He sounds like a paid spokesperson.

This is my favorite:

A car with as few moving parts as possible. “In a hydrogen fuel cell car, the engine has no moving parts, whatsoever,” Kaku said.

Considering an engine is something that turns other forms of energy into mechanical motion, I would say this is a major drawback! On the other hand, it should greatly reduce traffic fatalities!

 

[AndyH]

I have "conditional respect" for Michio Kaku, depending on what he is talking about. He lost points with me here.

Here’s why this expert physicist thinks Toyota’s hydrogen fuel-cell car is ‘perfect’ (Geekwire)

I wonder if he has some ulterior motive, or "arrangement" with Toyota.

Do you really think Dr. Kaku needs Toyota's money? :shock:

Or maybe he really doesn't know better?

Or...maybe the problem isn't him, but us?

hint: Do a lifecycle analysis/embodied energy analysis of a FCEV and BEV with 300 miles of range...

 

[mbender]

Do you really think Dr. Kaku needs Toyota's money? :shock:

1. I highly doubt he needs the money, but since when has that stopped any celebrity from capitalizing on their name, face or work recognition?
2. Need is a relative, subjective term, no? If he has modest tastes, he shouldn't need money, but then again he might have his eye on a FCEV. ;-)
3. He may actually need the money! After all, personal finance is not theoretical physics.
(4.) Does anyone think that he did it for free? Or that he wasn't told or guided in what to say?

Or maybe he really doesn't know better?

Or...maybe the problem isn't him, but us?

hint: Do a lifecycle analysis/embodied energy analysis of a FCEV and BEV with 300 miles of range...

If he had mentioned anything close to this or along these lines, I'd give him a little more credence. But look at the reasons he gave and tell me that you* aren't a tad embarrassed. "Perfect"? "Fuel source"? "No moving parts"? Water, (engine), smog, friendly, price... nothing that makes it better than a BEV (unless one really likes drops of water, perhaps).

So I have to agree with the one-who-lets-go-of-trees ;-) in saying that he sounds like a paid spokesperson.


* Especially you, Andy. You'd be a much better advocate than this string theorist (who should stick with pedaling that fancy ).

 

[RegGuheert]

the one-who-lets-go-of-trees ;-)

The Reg like!

 

[mbender]

Musk on 'silly' fuel cells, again*.

Automotive News World Congress Press Conference (Bloomberg)

The whole Q&A session is excellent, but forward to the 10:00 mark for the question and 2:xx (abbreviated) answer on fuel cells. This give-and-take is much better than the one done on stage (with the slightly hostile and ignorant reporter) just before this "open Q&A".

In this case, on this topic (and maybe others, too), I put a lot more value in the words of a very successful young businessman with "only" a bachelors in physics over an academic éminence grise / physics professor!

* for cars. He asks, I suspect rhetorically, "Why would you do that?"

Edit: Bloomberg changed the url for the video of the press conference!

 

[GRA]

Just PR fluff, still (via ievs.com):

Toyota Delivers First Mirai (w/video)

http://insideevs.com/toyota-delivers-first-mirai/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[AndyH]

Or maybe he really doesn't know better?

Or...maybe the problem isn't him, but us?

hint: Do a lifecycle analysis/embodied energy analysis of a FCEV and BEV with 300 miles of range...

If he had mentioned anything close to this or along these lines, I'd give him a little more credence. But look at the reasons he gave and tell me that you* aren't a tad embarrassed. "Perfect"? "Fuel source"? "No moving parts"? Water, (engine), smog, friendly, price... nothing that makes it better than a BEV (unless one really likes drops of water, perhaps).

So I have to agree with the one-who-lets-go-of-trees ;-) in saying that he sounds like a paid spokesperson.


* Especially you, Andy. You'd be a much better advocate than this string theorist (who should stick with pedaling that fancy ).

Here's the number one problem I have with this view: It's built completely on dissecting and reading-into what's essentially a sound bite, rather than 'zooming out' to look at the data and analysis behind the comment. Please - read that again.

This has been the absolute LARGEST reason I stepped into this thread. Because it's not just the 'against' crowd that's complaining about a piece of bark while ignoring the forest. Taking a few minutes to understand the system changes everything.

I stand with my statement, Mike. I recommend starting with the big picture in an attempt to understand WHAT and WHY the Doc said what he said, rather than trying to attack him (or anyone else) personally.

Andy

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Report: Hyundai to cut price of fuel cell vehicle in Korea to compete with Toyota

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/01/20150119-hyundai.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

They're really expensive there, before subsidies - the equivalent of $139k, vs. the Mirai's $62k. The govt. chips in the equivalent of $55,700 for the Tucson, which still leaves a Korean buyer on the hook for $83,500. Japan's also well ahead with the deployment of H2 stations.

 

[Reddy]

Latest operating H2 station, now approved to sell by Kg. Only capable of making 60 Kg/day or about 3000 mi of driving distance. It looks like this will be a good test unit to determine costs, applicability, etc. Hopefully, it will use excess renewables (when ever we finally put too many solar electrons on the grid).

The Cal State L.A. (CSULA) Hydrogen Research and Fueling Facility has become the first hydrogen station in California to be certified to sell fuel to the public by the kilogram measure

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/01/20150121-csula.html

 

[TonyWilliams]

Latest operating H2 station, now approved to sell by Kg. Only capable of making 60 Kg/day or about 3000 mi of driving distance. It looks like this will be a good test unit to determine costs, applicability, etc. Hopefully, it will use excess renewables (when ever we finally put too many solar electrons on the grid).

The Cal State L.A. (CSULA) Hydrogen Research and Fueling Facility has become the first hydrogen station in California to be certified to sell fuel to the public by the kilogram measure

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/01/20150121-csula.html

I thought one gallon of gasoline was equivalent to one kg of H2.

3000 / 60 = 50 miles per kg

There must be an efficency factor over gasoline that isn't factored in the "equivalent" part.

I had a nice chat with a few of our state regulators concerning hydrogen. I will participate in a CEC meeting on the 28th of Jan.

 

[RegGuheert]

They're really expensive there, before subsidies - the equivalent of $139k, vs. the Mirai's $62k. The govt. chips in the equivalent of $55,700 for the Tucson, which still leaves a Korean buyer on the hook for $83,500.

Thanks for that, Guy!

Frankly, it would be much better for the Korean government to purchase two Nissan LEAFs outright. That would allow two citizens to drive instead of one, would save the out-of-pocket expense of $83,500, and would save the government the ~$15,000 they still need to spend on H2 infrastructure to put just one Tuscon FCV on the road.

If the LEAF doesn't meet the customer's needs, then a Tesla Model S would seem to be in order.

 

[AndyH]

They're really expensive there, before subsidies - the equivalent of $139k, vs. the Mirai's $62k. The govt. chips in the equivalent of $55,700 for the Tucson, which still leaves a Korean buyer on the hook for $83,500.

Thanks for that, Guy!

Frankly, it would be much better for the Korean government to purchase two Nissan LEAFs outright. That would allow two citizens to drive instead of one, would save the out-of-pocket expense of $83,500, and would save the government the ~$15,000 they still need to spend on H2 infrastructure to put just one Tuscon FCV on the road.

If the LEAF doesn't meet the customer's needs, then a Tesla Model S would seem to be in order.

Reg - have you ever BEEN to Korea?!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

That's funny even if we completely ignore that the government money is being used to provide AN ADDITIONAL ALTERNATIVE. Even Koreans understand the admonition to not put all one's eggs in one basket...

 

[GRA]

Latest operating H2 station, now approved to sell by Kg. Only capable of making 60 Kg/day or about 3000 mi of driving distance. It looks like this will be a good test unit to determine costs, applicability, etc. Hopefully, it will use excess renewables (when ever we finally put too many solar electrons on the grid).

The Cal State L.A. (CSULA) Hydrogen Research and Fueling Facility has become the first hydrogen station in California to be certified to sell fuel to the public by the kilogram measure

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/01/20150121-csula.html

I thought one gallon of gasoline was equivalent to one kg of H2.

3000 / 60 = 50 miles per kg

There must be an efficency factor over gasoline that isn't factored in the "equivalent" part.

I had a nice chat with a few of our state regulators concerning hydrogen. I will participate in a CEC meeting on the 28th of Jan.

I'm not sure where the "3000" miles comes from. I didn't see it in the article, or in the GCR article reporting the same thing, which is here: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096416_hydrogen-fuel-now-available-for-sale-in-california" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'd expect something over 60 miles/kg, given the real world performance of the Tucson prototype, which IIRR averaged something like 68 m/kg over the course of a day's driving, and the Mirai should do considerably better as it's not an aerodynamic brick like the Tucson. More details of the CSULA facility can be found here: http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/review14/tv024_blekhman_2014_o.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

This has been one of the holdups to full commercialization, while they developed and certified a dispenser that could meter to an acceptable standard of accuracy, and is part of the reason Hyundai and Toyota are including fuel for several years. It was reported as an issue they were working on in one of the govt. reports I linked upthread some time back, but I'm not going to search for it. Glad to see they were able to check that one off the list. The above link includes a photo of the dispenser showing 2.405 kg, and two test meters showing 1.101 and 1.405 (2.406), so assuming that's typical an accuracy of +- 0.001 kg seems to be more than adequate - see here for gas pump meter accuracy (and precision): http://www.quora.com/How-accurate-are-the-pumps-in-gas-stations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apparently 0.3% accuracy is required of gas pumps, i.e. 10 gallons could really be 9.97 to 10.03 gallons.

 

[RegGuheert]

Reg - have you ever BEEN to Korea?!

Several times. I hardly see any relevance in your question.

That's funny even if we completely ignore that the government money is being used to provide AN ADDITIONAL ALTERNATIVE. Even Koreans understand the admonition to not put all one's eggs in one basket...

Koreans also understand that paying $83,500 for a vehicle which can be had for about $25,000 is just plain foolish. I'm sure they also understand that they are paying the other $55,000 plus the subsidies for infrastructure through their taxes.

 

[Reddy]

I'm not sure where the "3000" miles comes from. I didn't see it in the article, or in the GCR article reporting the same thing, which is here: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096416_hydrogen-fuel-now-available-for-sale-in-california" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sorry, I just calculated that from the statements in the article (60 kg/day * 50 mi/kg). I don't know if either number is accurate, just included it because it seems like only a few vehicles will be able to fill per day (similar to a charging station).

 

[GRA]

I'm not sure where the "3000" miles comes from. I didn't see it in the article, or in the GCR article reporting the same thing, which is here: http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1096416_hydrogen-fuel-now-available-for-sale-in-california" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sorry, I just calculated that from the statements in the article (60 kg/day * 50 mi/kg). I don't know if either number is accurate, just included it because it seems like only a few vehicles will be able to fill per day (similar to a charging station).

No worries, I figured it might be something like that. I've now gone back and found the relevant government document which says the Borrego (developmental Tucson FCEV, I believe) averaged 60.7 MPGge during a 396 mile SF-LA drive back in 2008: http://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/pdfs/htac_may2012_hyundai.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

See page 36. The higher figure I'm remembering (actually 68.3 m/kg) was from the Toyota Highlander FCHV-ADV real-world test results: http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2014/03/f9/toyota_fchv-adv_range_verification.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Both of these links have been provided previously upthread, but it doesn't hurt to have them again. BTW, just to be clear, the CSULA facility is very much a dem/val site, being used largely to gather data and for teaching. Its storage/daily fueling capacity is not representative of the commercial fueling stations that are/will be deployed in California.

 

[GRA]

Via ABG:

Tokyo wants 6k fuel-cell cars from Toyota and Honda for 2020 Olympics

Japan aims to have greener cars on its roads in time for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, and the city government there is putting some serious money on the table to make sure that the transformation happens in time. The push could jump start sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCEVs) in the metropolis and would portray the Asian country as a leader in the cutting-edge tech.

The city is setting aside 45.2 billion yen ($385 million) to offer subsidies for people buying FCEVs and to build 35 hydrogen refueling stations to keep them going, according to Bloomberg. The local government is in talks with Toyota and Honda to have 6,000 fuel cell vehicles on the road in time for the games. These generally expensive factors are often considered some of the biggest hurdles for the alternative fuel to take hold.

Full article here: http://www.autoblog.com/2015/01/21/tokyo-fcevs-toyota-honda-japan-report/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GregH]

I'm getting alarmed questions about this from Fit EV "owners." Do you have a link to a source, Tony?

Can't say for sure.. but FWIW, Honda's experience with their first production EV (the EV+) is instructive.
After the leases were up, Honda offered to extend the leases month by month until the vehicle could not be maintained (due to exotic component shortages). GM on the other hand had a rigid 36 month lease on the gen1 cars, a 36 month lease on the gen2 cars and then a generous but rigid 24 month re-lease on the original gen1 cars. Beyond this (and perhaps a few left behind for museums or special study) all GM EV1s and Honda EV+s were ultimately crushed.

edit: anyone know what's become of the Honda Clarity FCV leases? I'm guessing they'll be treated the same way...

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

DOE to award $55.8M for advanced vehicle technologies; $35M for fuel cell and hydrogen

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/01/20150122-doe.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[Reddy]

....BTW, just to be clear, the CSULA facility is very much a dem/val site, being used largely to gather data and for teaching. Its storage/daily fueling capacity is not representative of the commercial fueling stations that are/will be deployed in California.

Agreed. A great place to collect data, similar to the INEL-Blink data set for EVs.