As I hadn't done a long (>= 1.5 hour) evening commute PEV count since May, did one last night, from 5:12-7:02. Here's the totals:
Volt 18
LEAF 16
PiP 15
Fusion Energi 14
C-Max Energi 7
Model S 7
i3 4 (2 were REx, 2 undetermined [wrong side, no stickers]. i3 REx/non-REx IDs have been running at least 3:1 in favor of REx)
Focus El. 2
500e 2
Smart ED, E-Golf, Spark EV, Fit EV, ELR (v. rare), Rav4 all 1 each.
Total 91 of 15 different models, incl. 57 PHEV; 32 BEV incl. 7 long range BEV, 1 medium range BEV and 24 short range BEV; and 2 either BEV or PHEV.
Here's what it was almost a year ago (10/23/14, 5:05-6:37):
LEAF 16
PiP 16
Volt 14
Fusion Energi 3
Focus El. 2
C-Max Energi, Model S, Soul EV, 500e, Smart ED, RAV4 all 1 each.
Total 57 of 11 different models, including 34 PHEV; 23 BEV incl. 1 long range, 1 med. range and 21 short range.
Some basic analysis shows the (known) PHEV/BEV ratio was 1.78/1:00 last night, versus 1.48:1.00 last October. If we lump the long range BEVs (Model S) in with the PHEVs, the ratios become 64:25 or 2.56:1.00 last night versus 35:22 or 1.59:1:00 last October. Note that the number of Model S seen last October 23rd was less than I'd normally expect: 2-4 would have been more typical.
While it would be a mistake to draw any conclusions based solely upon two data sets, the shift towards PHEVs/long range BEVs and away from short range BEVs matches what I've been seeing for at least the past 1.5 years. I hypothesize that many early adopters who experimented with short range BEVs found them too limiting for their needs, and have either gone back to ICEs/HEVs or shifted to PHEVs. That's probably combined with more PHEV models being available (but then more BEV models are also available).
It's also possible/likely that the ratio of PHEV/BEV may be skewed towards PHEVs by the location where I do my counts, as it's an arterial that acts as a feeder for a freeway that's heavily used by 'mega-commuters' (1-way commute of >= 50 miles AND 90 minutes), of which the Bay Area has the largest % of any metro area in the country, 2.5% IIRR.
One trend that I've been noticing informally locally as well as in ievs' monthly PEV scorecard, but can now confirm with data, is that Fords constituted the largest number of PEVs seen (23) from any one manufacturer, including the largest number of PHEVs (21). I'd expected there to be a considerable market for relatively inexpensive PHEVs with ca. 20 mile AERs and normal looks, and this appears to show that's the case, especially for the Fusion Energi. I expect that Ford PEVs would sell even better if they weren't conversions that lost a significant amount of cargo area to batteries.
That being said, while I don't keep a count of ICE/HEV versions, my rough guesstimate is that the ratio of local Fusions powered by ICE/HEV/PHEV is around 5:3:1. The Fusion appears to be the most popular mid-size domestic car in the Bay Area, a region where domestic _cars_ have had little market share for decades. The Chrysler 200 also seems to be reasonably popular, but both are dwarfed by the number of Camrys/Accords/Prius/Altimas/Kia and Hyundais etc.
