Ghosn : Battery capacity to double within 4-5 years

[gudy]

Last Monday, I got invited to Ghosn's talk at Stanford, and during the Q&A sessions, he said that he was expecting battery capacity to double within 4-5 years. Seems like both a pretty bold statement, and a very exciting one.
He even mentioned that between R&D and actual product at scale, you have a few years, so I'm wondering what Nissan / NEC has in their labs right now...
He's still saying 10% electric car sales in 2020, which means a slower growth of ICE cars ( but still growing y/y), and a fairly big growth of EVs. He also believes that the future will likely have a much more important mix of various technologies ( ice, hybrid, ev, fuel cells, etc...) compared to today's predominantly ice market.

 

[GeekEV]

I assume his comment was referring to a doubling of capacity at the same price point? Or was it referring to form factor (battery size)? Or both? It doesn't seem unreasonable to me given the accelerating production rates...

 

[Nekota]

Did the talk at Stanford mention any information about the startup delays in Nissan battery plant plans? For example

http://www.dnj.com/article/20110617/NEWS01/110617017/Nissan-Leaf-battery-production-may-slightly-delayed?odyssey=nav|head

 

[Herm]

sounds to me like doubling the capacity with the same form factor.. in other words the Leaf 200 option. If we are so close to it, which battery chemistry will they start making a the Smyrna plant once they open up?.. Nissan has been talking about this new battery for a while now.

How much are you willing to pay for the Leaf 200 option? (EPA 146 miles)

 

[mwalsh]

Which is pretty much what we've been suggesting/hoping for here for some time. However, I still hold out hope that replacement packs will be insanely affordable, compared to today, by then too!

 

[Desertstraw]

See the thread that I started "Is the Leaf obsolescent?". There are already two known better batteries, BYD and DBM. Although I have just leased a Leaf, I expect to have vehicles available with a much better range at the end of my lease.

 

[Herm]

There are already two known better batteries, BYD and DBM. Although I have just leased a Leaf, I expect to have vehicles available with a much better range at the end of my lease.

Debatable.. how much range do you want to pay for?

 

[Herm]

Which is pretty much what we've been suggesting/hoping for here for some time. However, I still hold out hope that replacement packs will be insanely affordable, compared to today, by then too!

Probably insanely expensive for the next few years, but you could always sell your existing pack.. someone will want it when the BMS firmware is hacked.. good drop in for an existing BEV.

 

[evnow]

Last Monday, I got invited to Ghosn's talk at Stanford, and during the Q&A sessions, he said that he was expecting battery capacity to double within 4-5 years. Seems like both a pretty bold statement, and a very exciting one.
He even mentioned that between R&D and actual product at scale, you have a few years, so I'm wondering what Nissan / NEC has in their labs right now...

That is just according to EVNow's Law - doubling of battery energy density every 5 years :twisted:

Currently Nissan is working on NMC batteries. Panasonic is working on NiCoAl batteries. Both these are in advanced commercialization stage.

My expectation is that V2 Leaf will have about 150 miles of range - with reduced weight of batteries. This would help Nissan sell Leaf for about $25K without the tax credits.

ps : In the above table, note that Li Titanate batteries is what Toshiba is trying to commercialize. They have a better chance of doing that successfully than Alternano. You can charge these batteries in 5 minutes.

 

[evnow]

There are already two known better batteries, BYD and DBM.

LOL. BYD uses Iron Phosphate batteries. Search for controversy around BYD's source of technology - might be from A123. See the above chart for A123 - they are safe but have low density.

We don't know whether DBM batteries have better density - and how much they cost. Until they are more open about their batteries, put them in the "too good to be true" category.

 

[jhm614]

This is exciting!

Normally, when I read that "bright, shiny tech" will be available in "5 years", I'm immediately wary. A lot of neat things are alway 5 years away - (cheap solar, cold fusion, etc).

However, since Ghosn has already done the impossible -- the reasonably priced, highway capable electric car -- i'm inclined to believe him.

Now how much extra would I pay? That is a tough question. The Leaf Classic was right at the top of my budget, so I guess I would need some type of stripped-down version of the Leaf 150. I love all the extras but... no nav, XM, solar panel, backup camera, etc. if it keeps the price down. (And I guess I don't really love the solar panel)

 

[gudy]

He did say that lithium batteries would likely dominate for the next ten year. So this new battery would still be lithium based.

 

[evnow]

He did say that lithium batteries would likely dominate for the next ten year. So this new battery would still be lithium based.

Yes - all the batteries we are talking about are Lithium batteries. The basic difference is in the anode/cathode chemistry. The electrolyte is always Lithium based - Li is afterall the lightest metal in the universe.

 

[DrPowell]

Last Monday, I got invited to Ghosn's talk at Stanford, and during the Q&A sessions, he said that he was expecting battery capacity to double within 4-5 years. Seems like both a pretty bold statement, and a very exciting one.

That growth rate is consistent with a figure tossed out by LG Chem's CEO late last year.

Would like to recommend a book I've been enjoying lately, Bottled Lightning: Superbatteries, Electric Cars, and the new Lithium Economy, by Seth Fletcher.

 

[SparkyEV]

Would like to recommend a book I've been enjoying lately, Bottled Lightning: Superbatteries, Electric Cars, and the new Lithium Economy, by Seth Fletcher.

I'm reading it too. Very interesting history of the development of lithium-ion batteries.

 

[DrRocket]

This is exciting!

Normally, when I read that "bright, shiny tech" will be available in "5 years", I'm immediately wary. A lot of neat things are alway 5 years away - (cheap solar, cold fusion, etc).

However, since Ghosn has already done the impossible -- the reasonably priced, highway capable electric car -- i'm inclined to believe him.

Now how much extra would I pay? That is a tough question. The Leaf Classic was right at the top of my budget, so I guess I would need some type of stripped-down version of the Leaf 150. I love all the extras but... no nav, XM, solar panel, backup camera, etc. if it keeps the price down. (And I guess I don't really love the solar panel)

Once the Leaf is paid for you could then upgrade the battery pack since it would be cheaper than buying a new car.

 

[LEAFguy]

Once the Leaf is paid for you could then upgrade the battery pack since it would be cheaper than buying a new car.

My thoughts exactly. Ten year old cars need transmissions, timing belts or chains, etc - none of which are found in the LEAF. There is no reason that a well maintained EV cannot easily go 200,000 miles

 

[adric22]

Once the Leaf is paid for you could then upgrade the battery pack since it would be cheaper than buying a new car.

That is assuming the new battery is a drop in replacement for the old one. Toyota uses different battery packs in their hybrids. They have even changed the cells themselves from the first to the second generation. It is possible with some customization, to fit newer prius cells into a first-generation Prius and they do work. But it isn't something your local dealer is going to do for you.

I think the range on the current Leaf is fine for me and a lot of other people. Even when my leaf ages and gets to where its range is only 50 to 60 miles it will probably still be a viable second-car for the household, especially being that it will be paid for by then. However, I would love to see a 150 to 200 mile range on a Leaf because that would open the door to most of the naysayers who say the range is not good enough.

As for the 5 minute charging. I suppose that might be handy on occasion, but the good ole' J1772 isn't going away any time soon because nobody's home will have the wattage necessary to charge a vehicle that quickly.

As for cycle life, that makes me wonder what kind of battery Toyota will be using in their PHEV Prius. After all, with a 13 mile range they must realize that the battery will probably be cycled nearly every time the car is driven versus a Leaf where the battery would typically not go through a full cycle more than every few days.

 

[defiancecp]

It is an interesting shift in mentality. My other car is almost 9 yrs old (2003 WRX bought in late 2002) and has 110k miles on it, and repairs are approaching the prohibitive range. The transmission is starting to show signs of wear, and I'm getting small bubbles in the coolant as well as loss of coolant with no visible leak (which I believe means I'm probably going to need a head gasket replacement soon...). Not to mention that it seems to need a new clutch about every 36k miles, so that's now not too far off... I'll keep it up as long as the transmission will last, and depending on the cost I may even keep it going then, but the point is that's a lot of expense I've put into keeping that car going, and it's less than a decade.

 

[mwalsh]

Once the Leaf is paid for you could then upgrade the battery pack since it would be cheaper than buying a new car.

I wouldn't count on Nissan to have a battery pack upgrade, it's most likely to come from an OEM or secondary supplier. I pointedly asked Mark Perry what (if anything) they were thinking of in terms of replacement packs when I met him last November, and his response was: ".....we want to sell you a new car".