Chevrolet Bolt & Bolt EUV

[DaveinOlyWA]

Ghosn has stated that the Leaf 2.0 will beat the Bolt to market. I wonder if he knew that Chevy was planning for it to arrive this soon. If so, the Leaf 2.0 will come sooner than I had expected.

I expect Leaf to come before 2017 April - most probably 2016 end. Bolt will probably come in early to mid 2017. Model 3 in late 2017 or in 2018/19 - depending on how much slippage there will be.

Here is the interesting question - how much is 50 miles worth ?

Leaf 2 - 150 miles - $30k
Bolt - 200 miles - $38k
Model 3 - 200 miles = $40k

Will Leaf 2 actually have a 200 mile option (if so, at what extra cost) ?

lets do a poll; I say National Drive Electric week 2016

when I first heard about the Bolt, I figured a half dozen publicity deliveries Dec 2016 with a configured rollout nationwide taking nearly a year with first areas getting significant volumes Q1 2017. LEAF II should be rolling 10,000+ units by then

 

[mbender]

I expect Leaf to come before 2017 April - most probably 2016 end. Bolt will probably come in early to mid 2017. Model 3 in late 2017 or in 2018/19 - depending on how much slippage there will be.

Here is the interesting question - how much is 50 miles worth ?

Leaf 2 - 150 miles - $30k
Bolt - 200 miles - $38k
Model 3 - 200 miles = $40k

1.) Model 3 target is $35k before incentives. Musk reiterated this as recently as the Detroit Auto Show.
2.) They are focused on zero "slippage" for the Model 3 launch date. Musk said they are well aware that they have been overly optimistic in the past regarding timelines, but they are serious on (I think) 2017 for Model 3. He even said they'd drop "wish list" (my words) features in order to hit the deadline.

If both of the above pan out, then I suspect that many would pay $5k more for the Tesla's 200 over LEAF 2's 150. Especially if it still qualified for the $7500 federal credit (and soon to possibly become a $10,000 instant rebate). A barebones Tesla for under $25,000? Sign me up!

 

[lorenfb]

Musk said they are well aware that they have been overly optimistic in the past regarding timelines, but they are serious on (I think) 2017 for Model 3.

Really? And all future Musk "guidance" will be met, as he's serious now, right?
Have you read anything he said in his Q4 presentation?

 

[NeilBlanchard]

Nissan said 400km - which is ~250 miles.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Nissan said 400km - which is ~250 miles.

Yes. But the fact that they used kilometers instead of miles implies that they are not using the EPA scale to measure that range.

The 2015 Leaf goes 228km on the Japanese JC08 standard. So 400km is 175% the range if they are using that scale.

The 2015 Leaf goes 202km on the European NEDC standard. So 400km is 198% the range.

Even if we take the better of the two, it's about double the range. Double 84 miles is 168 miles.

 

[eloder]

Musk said they are well aware that they have been overly optimistic in the past regarding timelines, but they are serious on (I think) 2017 for Model 3.

Really? And all future Musk "guidance" will be met, as he's serious now, right?
Have you read anything he said in his Q4 presentation?

Nissan said that Leafs could go 100 miles on a full charge in regular driving.

Chevy initially made some very, very ridiculous claims about the Volt's extended range mileage and efficiency.

I'd trust Musk over the other guys. Chevy has put no serious effort into any pure EV so far. The Spark would be a wonderful competitor to many EVs on the market right now, but it's being strictly restricted as a compliance car. Nissan will likely put out a solid longer-range vehicle (150 miles for a non-Tesla company is much more viable in the next 2-3 years) for a reasonable price, but it'll probably still be running with air-cooled batteries and won't hit the value (price+range+longevity) that Tesla will have in its Model 3.

Tesla is also going to be the only car company out there that will be able to handle true massive EV demand. Nissan is the only other company out there with comparable battery purchasing power. LG Chem likely will not be able to handle demand given that Chevy is not the only one using their products.

Telsa's baseline Model S also runs something along the lines of a 25% profit margin per vehicle produced, from a lot of estimates. I wouldn't be surprised if Model 3's are sold at a level just to break even, in order to help get the Gigafactory economies of scale up and running.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

The Spark would be a wonderful competitor to many EVs on the market right now, but it's being strictly restricted as a compliance car.

Just to play Devil's Advocate here, I think that the way they rolled out the Spark EV actually makes a lot of sense, IF they planned to roll out the Bolt nationwide from the beginning. Think about it. GM gets some invaluable real-world experience with designing and building an EV. They sell in CARB states, so they maximize their credits in the near term. They also minimize the number of dealers they need to train up on the car, thus minimizing risk. They can then take all of that experience and roll it into the Bolt and sell it nationwide.

It's a conservative way to roll out a new product, but look at what BMW did. First BMW introduced the e-mini for lease only. They made a small number of them, and built on that knowledge to create the Active-E, again a limited edition lease-only product. They then built again on that experience, and created the i3, essentially their 3rd-generation EV. The whole process took over 10 years when you consider the time spent designing/building the e-mini prior to its announcement.

 

[eloder]

The Spark would be a wonderful competitor to many EVs on the market right now, but it's being strictly restricted as a compliance car.

Just to play Devil's Advocate here, I think that the way they rolled out the Spark EV actually makes a lot of sense, IF they planned to roll out the Bolt nationwide from the beginning. Think about it. GM gets some invaluable real-world experience with designing and building an EV. They sell in CARB states, so they maximize their credits in the near term. They also minimize the number of dealers they need to train up on the car, thus minimizing risk. They can then take all of that experience and roll it into the Bolt and sell it nationwide.

It's a conservative way to roll out a new product, but look at what BMW did. First BMW introduced the e-mini for lease only. They made a small number of them, and built on that knowledge to create the Active-E, again a limited edition lease-only product. They then built again on that experience, and created the i3, essentially their 3rd-generation EV. The whole process took over 10 years when you consider the time spent designing/building the e-mini prior to its announcement.

True enough, but the Spark strategy makes less sense given how many places already service/sell a Volt. I can't imagine (from my armchair mechanic position here) going from a Volt to a Spark would be that difficult for a technician to learn, similar to a tech learning how to work on multiple ICE models. Volts still have a mighty powerful battery and an electric powertrain.

 

[minispeed]

Chevy has put no serious effort into any pure EV so far.

I'd say that an in house built electric motor that is capable of 400 lb/ft (detuned since it was too much for the spark) is obviously designed to be something they can use in scale across the line up, ie trucks and full size sedans. That shows a serious effort. The volt also shows a serious effort, for a long time they said that 38 miles was enough and they increased it to 50 shows they are interested in evolving towards pure EV and exploring the full potential of the battery. Also the switch from the spark EVs first battery to the same cells in the volt shows a commitment to applying what was learned in the volt to a pure EV. If they were only in EV half way and never wanted to go any further then they probably would have kept the volt at 38 miles, shrunk the battery and saved some cost.

As said before by others I see a lot of similarities to the Spark and BMW e-mini/active e.

Also consider that the spark EV is available to fleets in Canada. None of the other cars that have no debate about being anything but a compliance car are available in Canada and the automakers receive no government incentives at all to sell or offer EVs. Fleet sales are very valuable to auto makers when they are testing out vehicles.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Nissan said 400km - which is ~250 miles.

does not apply here. to get that, you have to drive the speed limit which is why i STILL get over 90 miles on my 14 month old LEAF after 19,000 miles

 

[evnow]

Nissan said 400km - which is ~250 miles.

Those are using very mild Japanese/EU cycles.

I think the best guess we have now is - double the range. This is what Ghosn said on TV. We have also seen reports of a 48 kWh Leaf doing rounds. This also ties in with the survey they sent out a few months back.

 

[mbender]

Musk said they are well aware that they have been overly optimistic in the past regarding timelines, but they are serious on (I think) 2017 for Model 3.

Really? And all future Musk "guidance" will be met, as he's serious now, right?
Have you read anything he said in his Q4 presentation?

We shall see now, won't we? I'd wager someone in person that Model 3s will be on sale and on the road three years from now, yes. And yeah I heard about his valuation estimate (qualified by, "If all goes as planned,", or something to that effect), but I didn't say anything about all future statements.

There really is a lot of Musk/Tesla animosity out there though, for reasons I don't fully understand. Unfortunately, I think a lot of it is political/partisan, when electrification of transportation (Tesla's core mission), really should have bi-partisan appeal and support.

 

[evnow]

We shall see now, won't we? I'd wager someone in person that Model 3s will be on sale and on the road three years from now, yes. And yeah I heard about his valuation estimate (qualified by, "If all goes as planned,", or something to that effect), but I didn't say anything about all future statements.

There really is a lot of Musk/Tesla animosity out there though, for reasons I don't fully understand. Unfortunately, I think a lot of it is political/partisan, when electrification of transportation (Tesla's core mission), really should have bi-partisan appeal and support.

There is another good reason to be skeptical about Musk's timelines - apart from the usual X history. He is trying to be optimistic - this is the way to push his employees to deliver faster. Doesn't mean it will happen - but if he says it will take 5 years, it could take even longer.

Back to Bolt - I want to hear more details. Like what size is the battery. We'll know how optimistic is that 200 mile estimate.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Le't hope they don't make it look like a Camary like the new Volt.

 

[evnow]

Le't hope they don't make it look like a Camary like the new Volt.

It is going to look exactly like the next gen Chevy Sonic - just like Volt looked like Cruze.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Le't hope they don't make it look like a Camary like the new Volt.

It is going to look exactly like the next gen Chevy Sonic - just like Volt looked like Cruze.

there is no official view of the Bolt. they are all conceptions at this point.

 

[evnow]

there is no official view of the Bolt. they are all conceptions at this point.

Detroit insiders suggest the exterior is "finished" and looks production ready. Interior will change.

Remember GM has been talking about this for years ...

 

[TomT]

Actually, I like the looks of the new Volt!

Le't hope they don't make it look like a Camary like the new Volt.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Actually, I like the looks of the new Volt!

Le't hope they don't make it look like a Camary like the new Volt.

Me too. Of course, I also like the look of the Sonic more than the Bolt concept.

 

[LKK]

I'm just happy to see more mainstream EVs coming to fruition. I don't care if it's the Bolt, New Leaf, Tesla X, or any other vehicle from any other manufacturer, it's great to see the revolution progressing.