2016 Leaf Only - Pls Post Lease or Purchase deals.

[mihird]

Almost struck a deal today.

Hayward Nissan (Bay area - California)

2016 Leaf SV (without premium package)
$2500 drive off (-$2500 CA rebate)
$345/month (incl. tax)
15k miles/year
48 month lease

$385/month for premium package.

Only issue I ran into at the end of negotiations was closing out my existing 2013 Lease.
Dealer suggested I deal directly NMAC on the closure & they did not want to deal with it.

I will try & wind up the old lease tomorrow & might sign on the above 2016 deal by Wed.

 

[dm33]

Almost struck a deal today.

Hayward Nissan (Bay area - California)

2016 Leaf SV (without premium package)
$2500 drive off (-$2500 CA rebate)
$345/month (incl. tax)
15k miles/year
48 month lease

$385/month for premium package.

Only issue I ran into at the end of negotiations was closing out my existing 2013 Lease.
Dealer suggested I deal directly NMAC on the closure & they did not want to deal with it.

I will try & wind up the old lease tomorrow & might sign on the above 2016 deal by Wed.

I'm not normally big into leasing. As far as I can tell, thats over $19,000 in lease payments over 4 years. At the end of which you have nothing. In fact its closer to $20,000 when including the $400 disposition fee and any excess wear they decide to charge. For that much you could buy lots of car, even a base LEAF.

I wouldn't do more than a 3 year lease. That means anything goes wrong with the car in the last year and your on the hook for repairs. The bumper to bumper warranty would have expired. And you'll have to buy at least one set of tires

 

[LeftieBiker]

As far as I can tell, thats over $19,000 in lease payments over 4 years. At the end of which you have nothing.

You have paid for the option to then buy the car for about $12k, which I think will actually be below market value, for once.

 

[mihird]

Guys, I am in...

Nissan of Burlingame (Bay Area - California) wrote me a deal, which I think was fair - wouldn't call it a steal, but in line with what my previous 2013 Lease was ($345/month 15K miles/year)..I signed up. Picking up the car tomorrow.

2016 Leaf SV (without premium package)
$2500 drive off (-$2500 CA rebate) - $0 drive off
$375/month (35 payments) (9.5% sales tax included) (total payments of $13,125 over 3 years)
36 month lease (total lease miles 52,500)
17,500 miles/year (yes, extra 2,500 miles/year included & I could use them) cost of extra miles was 10c/mile if you pre-pay this way. Vs. 15c/mile if you choose to pay later.
Lastly, residual at end of lease term is $11,300, which I think is quite low (it was $16,000 on my 2013 lease) - bringing the total cost to own the vehicle including lease payments to about $23,000 + sales tax, if I choose to keep it after end of lease term.

I think, the bigger incentives from Nissan on the longer range 2016 SV and SL models will not show up until memorial day weekend, as someone pointed out.

--

48 month lease was fine to me, but I would certainly prefer a 36 over the 48 month period. It is hard to say, how well the 2016s will hold value compared to the 2011-2015s & the 48 month lease certainly had a much lower residual. It seems to me, the 2016s will fare better compared to the older 2011-2015s, and if Nissan ever announces a retrofit of the new battery to the 2011-2015s, it will boost all of their resale values. I really hope, they do..

 

[ALF]

Given that the 2016 SV/SL is sort of a 'stopgap' car until the next generation car, it would seem to me to be only sensible to lease it. Nissan must be smart enough though, to understand that the bottom is going to fall out of the 2016 SV/SL resale price once the nextgen comes out. That seems to be built into the high lease prices I'm seeing now.

 

[evnow]

I think, the bigger incentives from Nissan on the longer range 2016 SV and SL models will not show up until memorial day weekend, as someone pointed out.

I hope something shows up in Jan/Feb. Nissan's fiscal year runs from April to March. So, they would want to hit some numbers before April.

 

[tkdbrusco]

Given that the 2016 SV/SL is sort of a 'stopgap' car until the next generation car, it would seem to me to be only sensible to lease it. Nissan must be smart enough though, to understand that the bottom is going to fall out of the 2016 SV/SL resale price once the nextgen comes out. That seems to be built into the high lease prices I'm seeing now.

I would state the opposite. Locking yourself into a 3 year lease means that you can't buy a new 200+ mile EV until Dec. 2018. By then you will likely find that the $7500 federal rebate has started to decrease for Tesla, Nissan, and Chevy. I think the best EV deals right now are the 2015 models that they are giving away! Just got a client $14K out the door on a 2015 S with QC package. Even if she can only sell that for $8K in 3-4 years, that's still a better deal than most leases out there, and if she needs to strike early on a purchase, she can sell whenever and do so.

www.theevconsultant.com

 

[mihird]

I would state the opposite. Locking yourself into a 3 year lease means that you can't buy a new 200+ mile EV until Dec. 2018. By then you will likely find that the $7500 federal rebate has started to decrease for Tesla, Nissan, and Chevy. I think the best EV deals right now are the 2015 models that they are giving away! Just got a client $14K out the door on a 2015 S with QC package. Even if she can only sell that for $8K in 3-4 years, that's still a better deal than most leases out there, and if she needs to strike early on a purchase, she can sell whenever and do so.

http://www.theevconsultant.com

You could sell out of just about any lease, if you desire to purchase a future 200 mile EV in the next 1-2 years. If a 200 mile EV costs $35K or under in the next 2 years, 84 mile EVs will depreciate tremendously...then of course, there is the question of whether 84 mile range suits you currently, and for a lot of people out there shopping EVs it doesn't. 100+ mile range makes it suitable to a larger audience.

The 2016 Leaf SV and higher is the longest range EV you can buy at the moment in the sub $35K EV market. The Toyota RAV 4 EV with 103 miles of range was leasing at $499/costing $50K just about a year or so ago..

 

[tkdbrusco]

I would state the opposite. Locking yourself into a 3 year lease means that you can't buy a new 200+ mile EV until Dec. 2018. By then you will likely find that the $7500 federal rebate has started to decrease for Tesla, Nissan, and Chevy. I think the best EV deals right now are the 2015 models that they are giving away! Just got a client $14K out the door on a 2015 S with QC package. Even if she can only sell that for $8K in 3-4 years, that's still a better deal than most leases out there, and if she needs to strike early on a purchase, she can sell whenever and do so.

http://www.theevconsultant.com

You could sell out of just about any lease, if you desire to purchase a future 200 mile EV in the next 1-2 years. If a 200 mile EV costs $35K or under in the next 2 years, 84 mile EVs will depreciate tremendously...then of course, there is the question of whether 84 mile range suits you currently, and for a lot of people out there shopping EVs it doesn't. 100+ mile range makes it suitable to a larger audience.

The 2016 Leaf SV and higher is the longest range EV you can buy at the moment in the sub $35K EV market. The Toyota RAV 4 EV with 103 miles of range was leasing at $499/costing $50K just about a year or so ago..

I agree that the 2016 SV is the best low range EV that you can buy right now, but no dealer is negotiating on them, and the lease rates are pretty high at the moment compared to a lot of other cars out there like the 500e or the Spark. So if its my money, any EV purchase or lease at this point has to be made under the pretense that I'll be moving out of this car and into a 200+ range car in about 2-4 years time. This decision is even more complicated by the fact that the $7500 tax credit will start rolling off. However, if I'm a buyer that does have the income to take advantage of that credit, I'm in a slightly different scenario and perhaps I don't care as much. If I'm leasing an car with no intention of purchase, I consider a new 2016 SV, but if purchasing one means that I'm going to pay a $10K premium over a 2015 S, then I'm sorry, but I just pass, or I buy a 2016 Volt instead, because that car will keep much more of its value in the future. I think the 2016 SV is a great car, and the 30kwh pack is a big lifestyle improvement, but if I were to consider getting one, I'd wait until about a year from now, when the Bolt has arrived, Tesla is taking deposits on the Model 3, and Nissan is about to release the Gen2 Leaf, then I walk into a dealership and buy one at a price similar to what they are selling the 2015 models for right now.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

$242/mo isn't a bad deal. The thing that scares me about leasing a 2016 (or any EV) right now, is that I'm locked in for 3 years and can't escape to buy a Gen2, Bolt, or Model 3 in two years. I think I'll hold tight and see if they start blowing up the 2016 models in a year or so when all the new 200+ mi EVs are announced. If I can get a 2016 SV at some of the prices they are offering on the current 2015 blow out models, I'll be all over that.

LOL!! OMG!! you cant get the first ones!! oh no, what are you going to do!!

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Made the following deal at Nissan Burlingname - Bay Area
...
36 months - 15K miles
...

Is that 15k miles per year or total over 36 months? I presume it is the former but with the recent VW eGolf leases with 7,500 annual miles anything is possible.

??

 

[tkdbrusco]

$242/mo isn't a bad deal. The thing that scares me about leasing a 2016 (or any EV) right now, is that I'm locked in for 3 years and can't escape to buy a Gen2, Bolt, or Model 3 in two years. I think I'll hold tight and see if they start blowing up the 2016 models in a year or so when all the new 200+ mi EVs are announced. If I can get a 2016 SV at some of the prices they are offering on the current 2015 blow out models, I'll be all over that.

LOL!! OMG!! you cant get the first ones!! oh no, what are you going to do!!

It's not really that funny. Being able to buy some of the first several months of production on the 200+ mi newer EVs is not because I have to get one of the first ones OMG LOL! It is because if you look at production numbers for Nissan, Chevy, and Tesla, only the first 6-12 months of production will be able to get the full $7500 federal tax credit. If you look at current production numbers, all three of these manufacturers will likely hit 200,000 cars produced in the US by the end of the first year of production. I don't need to be the first to own one, I just want to make sure that I'm maximizing my financial incentives.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Phasing out of the tax credit is certainly a major looming issue for all of us, and I only see a few possible outcomes.

Model 3 should go first, as soon as orders open, the initial reservations may be enough volume to cover it. Then Chevy with the Bolt, and Nissan later, unless they speed up release of Leaf 2.

As it phases out, other OEMs would gain advantage, and incentive to compete.

Will that pressure lead to price cuts from T, C, & N?

Will the tax credits be extended?

 

[mihird]

Phasing out of the tax credit is going to impact all 3 Nissan, Chevy and Tesla..

The Volt has sold as many units as the Leaf (off by about a 1000 so far), at that rate, the Bolt won't see much of tax credits. Tesla is accelerating in sales leaving the Leaf and Volt behind in monthly sales nos. This means, they will reach the 200,000 milestone sooner than anticipated.

I have a hunch, the Feds will change the rules of the game and extend the tax credit further out...or something, since we are still far far behind the Fed anticipated EV adoption rate. Otherwise, I do not see any of the Gen 2 Leaf, Model 3 or Bolt can get the tax credit on much of its sales.

If the tax credit phases out in mid-late 2017 for all, that is all the more reason, the 2016 30Kwh battery models will retain value.

If Tesla, LG Chem or Nissan somehow figure out $100/KWh production cost for batteries by then, it will be another story.

What I am hoping for is to see the Feds, the manufacturers and the technology all 3 somehow work together to make the $30K 200 mile EV happen in 2017.

 

[Flyct]

I think the main reason why used Leafs are selling at so low prices is because of the tax credits. I bought a new 2015 over a used one only because of the $18,500 discount off MSRP ($5k dealer discount, $6k rebate and $7.5k tax credit).

Once tax credits are gone I can see sales of new Leafs falling and values of 2 yr old used Leafs rising above the current street price of $10k-$13k.

 

[dm33]

I think the main reason why used Leafs are selling at so low prices is because of the tax credits. I bought a new 2015 over a used one only because of the $18,500 discount off MSRP ($5k dealer discount, $6k rebate and $7.5k tax credit).

Once tax credits are gone I can see sales of new Leafs falling and values of 2 yr old used Leafs rising above the current street price of $10k-$13k.

I'm sure the batteries wearing out within 3 years has nothing to do with low resale value... Everyone expects to spend $5500 to fix a car with 60,000 miles.

 

[LeftieBiker]

I'm sure the batteries wearing out within 3 years has nothing to do with low resale value... Everyone expects to spend $5500 to fix a car with 60,000 miles.

That doesn't seem to apply to the 2013+ Leafs, or even to the gen 1 Leafs driven in cool climates. I think the previous poster is largely right, and that especially with 'Lizard Pack' equipped cars, used prices will shoot up when the tax credit ends.

 

[tkdbrusco]

I think you'll see a lot of Lobbying going on by Tesla, Nissan, and Chevy once the tax credits start expiring. They were the ones who were the trailblazers and let the revolution. They also definitely needed the tax credits to offset the early added expense of the Li-Ion batteries. I don't think its right to let them take a big hit when the competition can just swoop in sometime in 2018 and take advantage of greater tax credits than them. I would hope that you would see the government revise the credits in the next couple years to either extend them for all, or come up with a new methodology of applying them that doesn't leave Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan out to dry. Although the prior poster got on my case about it, I don't think being one of the first people to reserve a model 3 is that bad of a move from a financial perspective, given this tax credit situation. I do however think that the announcement of the Model 3 is going to take a serious bite out of the Model S sales for Tesla. You're gonna be hard pressed to get someone to pay $75K for a Model S 70D when they can just wait a year or so and get a Model 3 for $40K less. Sure it won't be as fancy of a car, and likely not as quick, but I doubt that it will be too far off the mark, or at least not $40K off.

As far as Leaf 13-16 resale values go, I think that you will see a small rise in those one the tax credits go away, especially if Nissan starts selling 30KWH packs at $5500 or so to all 11-16 owners. However, I doubt there will be that much of a bump. I think that given the reliability of EVs, and the eventual decline in replacement battery costs, the floor for a used Leaf is somewhere around $8K. I think this will happen once they have Leaf Gen2 available and they've cleared out most of their inventory on the 2016 models a year or so from now. One thing that I'm considering instead of buying a Model 3, Bolt, or Leaf 2, is to see what kind of prices they start selling the 2016 SV/SL at around this time next year? Once we know everything about the Model 3, the Bolt is hitting dealerships, and the Leaf 2 is a few months away, I think you'll see Nissan really wanting to move their 2016 models. You may be able to get a really ridiculous purchase price on them, and for us CA people, you may still be able to get the $2500 state rebate as well (assuming it doesn't run out of funds by then). So much to consider....

 

[jhm614]

I think you'll see a lot of Lobbying going on by Tesla, Nissan, and Chevy once the tax credits start expiring. They were the ones who were the trailblazers and let the revolution. They also definitely needed the tax credits to offset the early added expense of the Li-Ion batteries. I don't think its right to let them take a big hit when the competition can just swoop in sometime in 2018 and take advantage of greater tax credits than them. I would hope that you would see the government revise the credits in the next couple years to either extend them for all, or come up with a new methodology of applying them that doesn't leave Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan out to dry.

Another option would begin phasing out the tax credits for all manufacturers after set number of manufacturers (say... 3) reach the 200k limit.

 

[mihird]

Another option would begin phasing out the tax credits for all manufacturers after set number of manufacturers (say... 3) reach the 200k limit.

Frankly, I think, more than likely the Feds will extend tax credits. They just did it on solar...tax credits which were to end at end of 2016, extended by 5 years to 2021 (with a slightly different phase out formulation). Likewise, clean air vehicles might see a siimilar extension. PHEVs might see a ding in tax credits - that is one route the Feds could take...just as they are doing with the HOV lane access. More restrictive for PHEVs compared to BEVs..

EV adoption rate, cost and technology still appears 3-5 years away from being 100% ready to replace the ICE...

A Nissan Versa or Chevy Spark ICE costs half of the $35K price tag that all the manufacturers are trying to chase for the budget 200 mile EV in 2017-2018 timeframe.

It won't be until 2022-2023, that the EVs really start to compete with ICEs at this rate...

If a battery breakthrough occurs mid way, that is another story...

HFCEVs are almost twice the cost of an EV at the moment, and they have a much bigger infrastructure issue to tackle compared to BEVs, so they too won't be a breakthrough in the next 3-5 years.