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Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:53 pm
by rumpole
TonyWilliams wrote:
Volusiano wrote:It seems like Nissan has already known all along that its 80%/70% glide path in 5/10 years is a big drop off up front. So why did Nissan withhold that information from the customer at the point of purchase and let them assume incorrectly that the glide path is linear? Nissan never said anything about the glide path being non-linear with a big drop off up front until the cat was out of the bag and the premature losses in Phoenix started piling up.
They knew...it's precisely why that first capacity bar segment at the top is 15%. That's more than DOUBLE the remaining bars segments.

They just used a non-linear display to match the non-linear degradation, and like normal... didn't tell the consumer.

Can you review again how you measured that the top bar segment is 15% of the capacity?

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 7:57 pm
by 91040
Ran the car to a dead stop. An hour or so later it still would not shift into drive.
rumpole wrote: Knowing full well the Leaf battery is a completely different chemistry, has anyone run a Leaf to empty and let it sit for 20 or 30 minutes? Can you then get a another couple of miles?
The 15% number for the first capacity loss bar came from the service manual.

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 8:00 pm
by walterbays
evchels wrote:I did bounce the $5000 figure off him though, and was told it's too low even compared to their internal costs.
My Leaf costs me about 2 cents a mile in electricity to drive. Taking $5,000 as a lower bound of exchange price for a remanufactured battery and assuming best case degradation of 10 years, 12,000 miles per year, that's another 4 cents a mile for battery usage. If instead the exchange price is $10,000 and the car needs it after 5 years, then it's 16 cents a mile for battery usage. The total 18 cents a mile would be just a bit worse than a comparable conventional Toyota Camry at 30MPG and $5/gal.

Of course a Leaf with 120,000 miles on it and a new battery isn't like an ICE with 120,000 miles on it. Body and seat covers on both could be dinged up, but the Leaf wouldn't be looking at a valve job, ring job, transmission job, etc. So total depreciation could be considerably lower on the Leaf.

Anyway, thinking of the battery costs being 2X to 8X more than the electricity costs makes me think differently about saving electricity - as Nissan should have emphasized to buyers at the outset. I'm glad I use the timer to charge to 80% finishing at 5am so it doesn't sit overnight at high SOC. And if I need some more range during the day now I'm happy to charge another hour or two at peak electricity rates that are 4X my usual rates, rather than charge to 100% to avoid needing a daytime charge. Heck, I'd be happy to pay $30 or more for a quick charge now and then rather than leave my car sitting around near 100% charge, just in case I needed the range. (That is if any quick charge stations existed around here.)

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 10:06 pm
by thankyouOB
thanks for the math, Walter.
i am cool with the first example; the second -- costing more than a 30 mpg car at $5 a gallon -- gives me hives.

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:29 pm
by tbleakne
LEAFfan wrote:
evchels wrote:4) More information on the variables impacting degradation- e.g., how much freeway driving, fast charges, etc. (I actually really like the web app idea for this.)
I'm going to repeat what I posted because I would love to hear what Mr. Palmer will say about drivers that have babied their batteries (complete opposite of his 4 variables/conditions), driven LESS than 7500 miles in LESS than one year, and STILL have lost one or two capacity bars. Why can't he just be upfront and honest and admit that the major factor for battery pack degradation is high ambient heat over time?
What I disliked the most about Palmer's responses is his attempt to hide the over-riding importance of elevated temperature among the other variables. I hope, Chelsea, that you press him on this in your next session.

Even without the detailed data Nissan has, most of us on this forum are aware of the dramatic difference in loss rate statistics between Northern CA, Southern CA, and AZ. The Gid meter accurately predicts when you are about to lose a capacity bar. My Gid data, along with that of my friends in SoCal, suggests that many of us are going to be down 2 capacity bars by the end of next Summer. There must be at least 2K LEAFs in SoCal at least a year old, far more than AZ, so the number of disatisfied customers is going to rise dramatically. Two bars of loss is more than 20% of useful range if you use VLBW as your lower limit. That is the point where the car can no longer do many of the cross-town trips that I need to do. Losing that much in 2 1/2 years is much faster than Nissan led me to believe.

I am also very skeptical about the Glide Path. Nissan has emphasized that the highest loss is correlated with higher mileage, but cycle loss of Li batteries is generally linear and does not slow down like calendar loss.

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:50 pm
by TEG
One thing about the whole "Arizona area situation" is that they didn't halt sales when they started to see a trend of a problem.

They talk of the LEAF being a model with new technology, still being "proven", yet they can't halt sales when a "crisis" comes up?
They brought customer cars in for study... They bought some back... But meanwhile kept selling as if nothing could be wrong?

Doesn't the industry generally "take a pause" when they see signs that something could be wrong, even if they think it might still be customer over-reaction? With total Arizona sales being, what, 450?, it doesn't seem like such huge numbers that putting a sales hold for a while would be unthinkable. Are they committed to selling this model in those areas "no matter what?"

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:58 pm
by DaveEV
evchels wrote:4) More information on the variables impacting degradation- e.g., how much freeway driving, fast charges, etc. (I actually really like the web app idea for this.)
Here's an idea that could be used to estimate capacity loss based on driving behavior - simply build an app for your smart-phone which records your typical driving. This way you can run the app for a day - a week - a month - etc and just let it collect data on how you drive. Then plug this data into the simulator, combine with a handful of other parameters (climate, 80 vs 100% charging, when the charging is done, where you normally park, etc) and then provide a glide path. Use that information to show that you may or may not be able to make some of those drives without additional charging in the future.
klapauzius wrote:
drees wrote:Mark Perry stated exactly that a number of times - if you find capacity low at some point you'd be able to "refresh" your pack by replacing the weakest ones and get a good bump in capacity.
Has anyone done that yet? I would think the Arizona Leafs would be a great testbed for that hypothesis, as they represent a time-accelerated sample of what is going to happen to all Leaf batteries eventually.

Why was this not presented as an option for the Arizona cases? My guess is, because it is not working. That would have been such a nice solution for the conundrum, swap out a part for $600 and buy another year solace from concerned owners...
From what I can tell - the battery test used to show if there are any weak outliers did not find any in the cars that have been tested. In other words - capacity degradation across the pack is happening pretty evenly and there aren't any cells significantly below the the best cells. I certainly have to imagine that if Nissan found any weak cells when they took the cars to Case Grande, they would have had them replaced if doing so would have improved usable capacity of the pack.
LEAFfan wrote:I would love to hear what Mr. Palmer will say about drivers that have babied their batteries (complete opposite of his 4 variables/conditions), driven LESS than 7500 miles in LESS than one year, and STILL have lost one or two capacity bars.
It's clear from Tony's range test and Andy confirmed that the capacity gauge is pessimistic. Fixing the gauge has got to be a top priority since at a minimum it will reduce the perception of an issue for many owners.

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 12:04 am
by abasile
tbleakne wrote:I am also very skeptical about the Glide Path. Nissan has emphasized that the highest loss is correlated with higher mileage, but cycle loss of Li batteries is generally linear and does not slow down like calendar loss.
While the cycling losses themselves might be relatively small, the extra heat generated by higher mileage would certainly lead to greater calendar losses, which will hopefully slow. As Nissan's testing was accelerated, however, I doubt that even they know absolutely for sure.

Whatever the case, though, the bottom line is that the LEAF is not meeting customer expectations in hot climates, and Nissan is largely responsible for having created those expectations. In the long run, the LEAF absolutely needs to have either a more heat-tolerant battery chemistry or a TMS.

According to Green Car Reports, by the way, the upcoming Smart ED will have a liquid cooled 17.8 kWh battery pack, a range close to the LEAF's, and a total pre-incentive price of about $25K. That'll make it the least expensive production EV, proof that a TMS doesn't have to be extraordinarily expensive.

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 1:25 am
by Herm
We dont know if the Smart ED battery will be cooled to ambient air temps or lower using the AC. We just know it will be liquid cooled.

Re: Andy Palmer and Chelsea Sexton Discuss the Nissan LEAF

Posted: Sat Oct 06, 2012 5:18 am
by JRP3
walterbays wrote: I'm glad I use the timer to charge to 80% finishing at 5am so it doesn't sit overnight at high SOC.
Of course if you use the timer to charge to 100% and finish at 5am or just before you need it it wouldn't be sitting overnight at high SOC either.