Time magazine declares Leaf a flop

[gatedad11]

it's hard to agree that the LEAF is a flop, at least not at this point. Nissan seems to have engineered and built a generally very good product. However, it is flawed and there may be some truth to the argument that it was released too soon. I don't own a LEAF, no EV at all, not even a hybrid. There will come a time in the not too distant future where I will be in the market for a new automobile, and I have been following the LEAF's development(as well as the Volt)). Both, incidentally, seem like great ideas and necessary ones at that. As so many people on this board have said, the biggest hindrance to middle class folks (like me) in buying a LEAF is cost. I factor into that cost the fact that the battery will degrade over 8-10 years, to the point that many people will want to trade their car in. Right now, I own 3 vehicles, the newest one being a 2003! People keep their cars longer than they did when I was growing up(I am 57 ). If the car needs a new battery pack after 6-8 years, at the cost of $38,500 this is an overly expensive car. Yes, there is the $7500 Federal Tax rebate(and another $3500 State of PA rebate on top for me). Problem for many of us is that we just can't swing that large initial up front cost, and then wait 6-8-10 months for a rebate. Lot's of people are just making ends meet and don't have the extra cash necessary to swing the deal. Also, if the car is getting realistically 70 miles or so, under ideal driving and weather conditions, then Nissan is expecting customers to pay premium for a car with limited capabilities. Even though, by all accounts, this is a fun car to drive that suits many families perfectly, it falls short for many others. If the cost were more reasonable, a lot of people could make do with the limitations. But $38,000(or even $27,000 assuming the tax rebates) is a large ticket price for a commuter car. I am hoping that the Smyrna plant opening will allow prices to drop, and that battery enhancements will up the mileage range. If those 2 happen(and they are big ifs) then Nissan has a real shot at success here. I certainly hope that it works out for them, as the US needs this.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

it's hard to agree that the LEAF is a flop, at least not at this point. Nissan seems to have engineered and built a generally very good product. However, it is flawed and there may be some truth to the argument that it was released too soon. I don't own a LEAF, no EV at all, not even a hybrid. There will come a time in the not too distant future where I will be in the market for a new automobile, and I have been following the LEAF's development(as well as the Volt)). Both, incidentally, seem like great ideas and necessary ones at that. As so many people on this board have said, the biggest hindrance to middle class folks (like me) in buying a LEAF is cost. I factor into that cost the fact that the battery will degrade over 8-10 years, to the point that many people will want to trade their car in. Right now, I own 3 vehicles, the newest one being a 2003! People keep their cars longer than they did when I was growing up(I am 57 ). If the car needs a new battery pack after 6-8 years, at the cost of $38,500 this is an overly expensive car. Yes, there is the $7500 Federal Tax rebate(and another $3500 State of PA rebate on top for me). Problem for many of us is that we just can't swing that large initial up front cost, and then wait 6-8-10 months for a rebate. Lot's of people are just making ends meet and don't have the extra cash necessary to swing the deal. Also, if the car is getting realistically 70 miles or so, under ideal driving and weather conditions, then Nissan is expecting customers to pay premium for a car with limited capabilities. Even though, by all accounts, this is a fun car to drive that suits many families perfectly, it falls short for many others. If the cost were more reasonable, a lot of people could make do with the limitations. But $38,000(or even $27,000 assuming the tax rebates) is a large ticket price for a commuter car. I am hoping that the Smyrna plant opening will allow prices to drop, and that battery enhancements will up the mileage range. If those 2 happen(and they are big ifs) then Nissan has a real shot at success here. I certainly hope that it works out for them, as the US needs this.

all valid but what is your alternative purchase if not a plug? its not hard to get a new gas car for less than 27,000 but what about the extra $1,000-2000 a year in fuel and maintenance?

if you are on a 5 year purchase plan you are now looking at cars in the $16,000-17,000 range and that is where it gets to be a challenge but that challenge can be met but the resulting list of available vehicles is...well, depressing

**edit** just a nugget to mull over. TCO is something that has been spun a hundred times here in all various ways and if

** not buying used
** not buying econo box
** does not have commute beyond EV range (after degradation)

then there is no car that is cheaper to own and operate.

and if that does not work, lease

 

[gatedad11]

First of all, I have loved your posts, and thanks for the comments. I agree that, in the long haul, as long as the car's batteries don't degrade too much, you can/will save on the operating costs. Problem is that even Nissan admits that the expected life span of the batteries is , I believe, at most 8 years. Nothing wrong with 8 years, but some people(me) expect to retain ownership beyond that. Frankly, it's the long term ownership that truly will effect the most savings on owning a LEAF. The cost per mile is so much less, that you "want", really want to extend that over many years. And that was my point, that to realize the most savings you'd probably need to keep the car beyond its 8 year battery mximum efficiency. Then again, maybe in 5 years the cost of replacement batteries will drop enough that it would make sense to swap out an older pack for larger, cheaper one. That changes things significantly. I am , of course, assuming 100 mile driving conditions is a given, in almost all kinds of weather and terrain. They are not there yet, but I believe that is only a matter of a few more years.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

that is reasonable and yes after nearly 20 months; EV tech is really still in its infancy so expect HUGE changes to continue.

Since the LEAF; we have introduced

faster L2 charging
Quick Charging
Ever larger battery packs
Better climate controls
half a dozen new models, etc

granted, not all Nissan but i do believe that the various EV manufacturers do feed off each other for ideas and inspiration.

besides the obvious reasons for health, environment, foreign oil, etc; i got the LEAF because i felt that my first battery pack replacement cost would not be based on the cost of the actual battery but the market pricing controled by the cost of the alternative which is gasoline.

This is the target price of battery manufacturers. i do believe that cost wise they will be much cheaper to build than getting oil but only a portion of that savings will be passed on to us.

but that also gives the manufacturer much more flexibility and we should start seeing a lot more towards battery leasing, upgrade options for existing EVs, etc.

the only sticking point to this and its a big one is the average American's perception of cost. it will be tough to convince someone that its much cheaper to get a loan to get a $5,000 battery pack replaced than it would be to pay $10,000 for gas during the same time period a week at a time.

 

[Deleted member 6912]

Against my better judgement I'll jump in here.

I have a 2002 Chevy Avalanche. 5.2L V8, 15-18mpg. 100K miles on the clock. Still in pretty good shape, but the ABS computer is out, it uses a quart of oil every 1500 miles and a quart of coolant every 2K. Outside and in are still in great shape, and it does a great job as a truck. It's just not good for my daily 6 mile r/t commute or running errands. Spending about $150/month in gas.

The Leaf was perfect for me. The truck is parked and used as a truck, drive it a little every now and then to keep everything moving.

I needed something now, but in my mind the auto world is in transition. EV is the wave of the future, but it is not mature. I don't want anything long term. So when my friend mentioned her Leaf lease I . got interested

Let's look at the economics of the Leaf. Saves $150/month in gas. With $7500 from the feds, and last month $1000 from Nissan, that amount is taken off the top in a lease. But lease residual value is based on a percentage (45% of the Leaf) of MSRP. That really narrowed the gap between purchase price and residual. The fact that Nissan was dealing, selling for well below invoice just made it sweeter. I was able to get an SL for just over $300/mo for 39 months.

After my 3 years I give them back a car that they think will be worth over $17,000 and I am free to buy new technology. And if inflation goes nuts and prices go through the roof, I'm locked in at a price in 3 years.

Even if the Leaf was an ICE driven car, I don't think $300/mo for that size car with that level of toys is unreasonable. And once I've explained the economics of it I've sold 3 others on it.

I don't think a Leaf is expensive.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

i shopped around a bit to see what other leases are going for and thought i had a Camry lease at $199 but found out that i did not qualify for it. (bought 3 Priuses from them and figured i would get "some" loyalty points but nooo...)

i did qualify for $229 plus tax so that about $250 a month. now its a nice car but no NAV. BT yes. but the LEAF even at $300 a month lease (no sales tax for EVs here!) i would save at least double that in gas. i average $65-120 a month in savings driving the LEAF over a Prius. the Camry will not do as well as that.

either way, it all comes down to the range and can you live with it? do you need more than 50 miles a day?

are they any public charging options now or planned?

if you live in very hot weather, are you aware of battery issues?

 

[GRA]

Against my better judgement I'll jump in here.

I have a 2002 Chevy Avalanche. 5.2L V8, 15-18mpg. 100K miles on the clock. Still in pretty good shape, but the ABS computer is out, it uses a quart of oil every 1500 miles and a quart of coolant every 2K. Outside and in are still in great shape, and it does a great job as a truck. It's just not good for my daily 6 mile r/t commute or running errands. Spending about $150/month in gas.

The Leaf was perfect for me. The truck is parked and used as a truck, drive it a little every now and then to keep everything moving.

I needed something now, but in my mind the auto world is in transition. EV is the wave of the future, but it is not mature. I don't want anything long term. So when my friend mentioned her Leaf lease I . got interested

Let's look at the economics of the Leaf. Saves $150/month in gas. With $7500 from the feds, and last month $1000 from Nissan, that amount is taken off the top in a lease. But lease residual value is based on a percentage (45% of the Leaf) of MSRP. That really narrowed the gap between purchase price and residual. The fact that Nissan was dealing, selling for well below invoice just made it sweeter. I was able to get an SL for just over $300/mo for 39 months.

After my 3 years I give them back a car that they think will be worth over $17,000 and I am free to buy new technology. And if inflation goes nuts and prices go through the roof, I'm locked in at a price in 3 years.

Even if the Leaf was an ICE driven car, I don't think $300/mo for that size car with that level of toys is unreasonable. And once I've explained the economics of it I've sold 3 others on it.

I don't think a Leaf is expensive.

I don't disagree with your comments, however, with a 6 mile round trip commute you could buy yourself a used bike for $100 (or a new one for $400-$1,000), spend another $50-$200 for a helmet, locks, lights etc. and maybe $50/yr for parts and maintenance, and save yourself something over $280/month every month you ride it, plus save on health care and car insurance. I'm just sayin'.

(riding a 30 year-old Peugeot for a 9 mile R/T commute and local errands beyond walking range for the past 12 years).

 

[RegGuheert]

First of all, I have loved your posts, and thanks for the comments. I agree that, in the long haul, as long as the car's batteries don't degrade too much, you can/will save on the operating costs. Problem is that even Nissan admits that the expected life span of the batteries is , I believe, at most 8 years. Nothing wrong with 8 years, but some people(me) expect to retain ownership beyond that. Frankly, it's the long term ownership that truly will effect the most savings on owning a LEAF. The cost per mile is so much less, that you "want", really want to extend that over many years. And that was my point, that to realize the most savings you'd probably need to keep the car beyond its 8 year battery mximum efficiency. Then again, maybe in 5 years the cost of replacement batteries will drop enough that it would make sense to swap out an older pack for larger, cheaper one. That changes things significantly. I am , of course, assuming 100 mile driving conditions is a given, in almost all kinds of weather and terrain. They are not there yet, but I believe that is only a matter of a few more years.

It sounds like your situation is close to ours. First of all, we live in VA. We don't drive very much, so in order for us to make the most of our LEAF purchase, we need the car to last for many years. Others on this forum like Dave put a lot of miles on their car each year so they tend to replace them after a few years. Leasing makes good sense in that situation. We also tend to view battery capacity degradation with a different eye. We are MUCH more sensitive to calendar degradation of the battery while some here may be more sensitive to degradation due to cycling. Some in hot climates are clearly being impacted by both effects.

Frankly, I'm concerned that we will not get over ten years out of the LEAF battery as I originally expected, even though we can probably be fine with 50% degradation. We're in for the long haul and so far the car has performed well, but we will see. Lately I've been trying to decide if average temperature or peak temperatures will dominated the degradation in our LEAF. In summertime it is often 20F hotter here than in Seattle, but I think our year-round average temperature is lower than Seattle's. Does that mean our batteries will last longer? It's too early to tell, IMO. But time will eventually tell...

In any case, welcome to the forum!

 

[unhookt]

As an owner I'm also pretty disappointed by how little has been done by Nissan to promote the vehicle in the United States. There was some early push and expected excitement, but Nissan isn't doing very much to make the Leaf visible from a marketing standpoint. It really feels under the radar right now, and I'm not seeing the same degree of interest in the car when I drive it around, etc. as I did when I first got the car a year ago.

I agree that the car is costly, but we considered the cost savings generated, as well, when we made our decision. My other car is a premium gas-guzzling luxury V8 sedan (no car payment), and I was spending more money in monthly gas (commuting and weekend driving) than I pay in the Leaf's lease and insurance costs combined. In effect, my net expenditures have dropped with the acquisition of this additional vehicle.

Now, if Nissan is expecting the average American Joe-consumer to be this cerebral in the purchase process, they've got a serious gap to bridge. We live in the society of keeping up with the Joneses, big box stores, etc. Nissan needs to start doing the math for buyers so they understand the value proposition (aside from the Eco-message) of the vehicle - in plain hot dogs and apple pie terms.

 

[Deleted member 1622]

Some very interesting comments here... I think the magazine article is the usual bogus anti-EV report based on one reporter's opinion and a sales number (why don't they ever contact actual Leaf drivers when they mention "range-anxiety?" I have yet to talk to a Leaf owner who has had the car more than two months and still experiences it.)
Anyway, the article did force me to think about something... what is the REAL benchmark for this car being a flop or not? It's hard to say, but I guess for a Leaf-promoter like me I would have to see two to three years straight of declining sales year-to-year. Unfortunately we may actually see the first year-to-year decline at the end of 2012. But I'm hopeful this can be turned around for all the reasons people have posted previously.

JG

 

[Deleted member 1622]

it's hard to agree that the LEAF is a flop, at least not at this point. Nissan seems to have engineered and built a generally very good product. However, it is flawed and there may be some truth to the argument that it was released too soon. I don't own a LEAF, no EV at all, not even a hybrid. There will come a time in the not too distant future where I will be in the market for a new automobile, and I have been following the LEAF's development(as well as the Volt)). Both, incidentally, seem like great ideas and necessary ones at that. As so many people on this board have said, the biggest hindrance to middle class folks (like me) in buying a LEAF is cost. I factor into that cost the fact that the battery will degrade over 8-10 years, to the point that many people will want to trade their car in. Right now, I own 3 vehicles, the newest one being a 2003! People keep their cars longer than they did when I was growing up(I am 57 ). If the car needs a new battery pack after 6-8 years, at the cost of $38,500 this is an overly expensive car. Yes, there is the $7500 Federal Tax rebate(and another $3500 State of PA rebate on top for me). Problem for many of us is that we just can't swing that large initial up front cost, and then wait 6-8-10 months for a rebate. Lot's of people are just making ends meet and don't have the extra cash necessary to swing the deal. Also, if the car is getting realistically 70 miles or so, under ideal driving and weather conditions, then Nissan is expecting customers to pay premium for a car with limited capabilities. Even though, by all accounts, this is a fun car to drive that suits many families perfectly, it falls short for many others. If the cost were more reasonable, a lot of people could make do with the limitations. But $38,000(or even $27,000 assuming the tax rebates) is a large ticket price for a commuter car. I am hoping that the Smyrna plant opening will allow prices to drop, and that battery enhancements will up the mileage range. If those 2 happen(and they are big ifs) then Nissan has a real shot at success here. I certainly hope that it works out for them, as the US needs this.

Gatedad -
I hope when you decide to buy a new car in the near future, you do go with the Leaf.
I also think you should reconsider saying this car has "limited capabilities." It's all about context. If you log your daily miles for a month, and you find that you never drive over 70 miles a day (or you do once for a long trip), then is the car really limited in your household? This car has anything but limited capabilities... it probably has the best handling and driving experience of any car I've owned.
As for the cost, yes, it's a burden to wait 10 months for a tax credit. But I am still a grad student and my wife is a high school teacher, so we make probably very little compared to most people on this forum. We made it work because we wanted it to. A small loan to cover the extra cost of 10 monthly payments while you wait for the government to send you money is very do-able, and worth it. Our auto loan cost after buying the highest premium service contract (9 years, I think) is $412 a month.
As for battery degradation, nobody will have the real data to know about that for a decade, so why worry about it now? I am fully confident this car will be running in 10 years... how far can I go in 10 years, who the heck knows, but I'm ready to take the risk.
Ultimately being an early adopter is a risk, but it's a risk well worth taking, so I hope you set your concerns aside and take the leap.

JG

 

[HoustonFlier]

It is a struggle for hearts and minds.

Considering that this is the same magazine that declared Hitler Man of the Year, I wouldn't worry that much about their opinion on the matter. Time will tell.

Well deserved, when you consider the qualifications for "Man of the Year"

Person of the Year (formerly Man of the Year) is an annual issue of the United States newsmagazine Time that features and profiles a person, group, idea or object that "for better or for worse, ...has done the most to influence the events of the year."

 

[EVDrive]

The Time writer came to a stupid opinion of the Leaf. 40,000 Leaf EV's sold worldwide is not a flop.

Happy with my Leaf after 20,500 miles.

 

[mirko]

That Prius was a flop too. When it first came out. I wonder if Time magazine had an article about that too. :lol:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius#Sales" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

+---------------------------------------------------------+
|       Annual Prius sales worldwide and by region        |
|                    (in thousands)                       |
+------+-------+-------+---------+-------+--------+-------+
| Year | World | Japan |  North  |  U.S. | Europe | Other |
|      |       |       | America |       |        |       |
+------+-------+-------+---------+-------+--------+-------+
| 1997 |   0.3 |   0.3 |         |       |        |       |
| 1998 |  17.7 |  17.7 |         |       |        |       |
| 1999 |  15.2 |  15.2 |         |       |        |       |
| 2000 |  19.0 |  12.5 |     5.8 |   5.6 |    0.7 |  0.01 |
| 2001 |  29.5 |  11.0 |    16.0 |  15.6 |    2.3 |   0.2 |
| 2002 |  28.1 |   6.7 |    20.3 |  20.1 |    0.8 |   0.2 |
| 2003 |  43.2 |  17.0 |    24.9 |  24.6 |    0.9 |   0.4 |
| 2004 | 125.7 |  59.8 |    55.9 |  54.0 |    8.1 |   1.9 |
| 2005 | 175.2 |  43.7 |   109.9 | 107.9 |   18.8 |   2.9 |
| 2006 | 185.6 |  48.6 |   109.0 | 107.0 |   22.8 |   5.3 |
| 2007 | 281.3 |  58.3 |   183.8 | 181.2 |   32.2 |   7.0 |
| 2008 | 285.7 |  73.1 |   163.3 | 158.6 |   41.5 |   7.7 |
| 2009 | 404.2 | 208.9 |   144.3 | 139.7 |   42.6 |   8.4 |
+------+-------+-------+---------+-------+--------+-------+

 

[garymelora]

As for the cost, yes, it's a burden to wait 10 months for a tax credit

.

Why would you wait for your credit? Just reduce the amount your employer takes out of your paycheck.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

As for the cost, yes, it's a burden to wait 10 months for a tax credit

.

Why would you wait for your credit? Just reduce the amount your employer takes out of your paycheck.

i write a check to the IRS every year. cant reduce it anymore than it already is. anyone who gets a refund over $1000 should have their heads examined unless they are like my SO who cant save a dime. that is the only way she gets any money together for any kind of major purchase. her average return is about $3,000

 

[gaswalla]

it's hard to agree that the LEAF is a flop, at least not at this point. Nissan seems to have engineered and built a generally very good product. However, it is flawed and there may be some truth to the argument that it was released too soon. I don't own a LEAF, no EV at all, not even a hybrid. There will come a time in the not too distant future where I will be in the market for a new automobile, and I have been following the LEAF's development(as well as the Volt)). Both, incidentally, seem like great ideas and necessary ones at that. As so many people on this board have said, the biggest hindrance to middle class folks (like me) in buying a LEAF is cost. I factor into that cost the fact that the battery will degrade over 8-10 years, to the point that many people will want to trade their car in. Right now, I own 3 vehicles, the newest one being a 2003! People keep their cars longer than they did when I was growing up(I am 57 ). If the car needs a new battery pack after 6-8 years, at the cost of $38,500 this is an overly expensive car. Yes, there is the $7500 Federal Tax rebate(and another $3500 State of PA rebate on top for me). Problem for many of us is that we just can't swing that large initial up front cost, and then wait 6-8-10 months for a rebate. Lot's of people are just making ends meet and don't have the extra cash necessary to swing the deal. Also, if the car is getting realistically 70 miles or so, under ideal driving and weather conditions, then Nissan is expecting customers to pay premium for a car with limited capabilities. Even though, by all accounts, this is a fun car to drive that suits many families perfectly, it falls short for many others. If the cost were more reasonable, a lot of people could make do with the limitations. But $38,000(or even $27,000 assuming the tax rebates) is a large ticket price for a commuter car. I am hoping that the Smyrna plant opening will allow prices to drop, and that battery enhancements will up the mileage range. If those 2 happen(and they are big ifs) then Nissan has a real shot at success here. I certainly hope that it works out for them, as the US needs this.

As for battery degradation, nobody will have the real data to know about that for a decade, so why worry about it now? I am fully confident this car will be running in 10 years... how far can I go in 10 years, who the heck knows, but I'm ready to take the risk.
Ultimately being an early adopter is a risk, but it's a risk well worth taking, so I hope you set your concerns aside and take the leap.

JG

Umm.. the data does exist for battery degradation.. and it's pretty much guaranteed that at at 10 years, you'll have less than 25 usable miles on a charge...I'll take a Prius, buy a gallon of gas, and go twice as far.

 

[WetEV]

Umm.. the data does exist for battery degradation.. and it's pretty much guaranteed that at at 10 years, you'll have less than 25 usable miles on a charge...

Source, please.

And even if true, that means I need to buy a battery if I need more than 25 usable miles per charge. What do you expect a battery will cost in 10 years??

 

[greenwayleaf]

Umm.. the data does exist for battery degradation.. and it's pretty much guaranteed that at at 10 years, you'll have less than 25 usable miles on a charge...

Source, please.

And even if true, that means I need to buy a battery if I need more than 25 usable miles per charge. What do you expect a battery will cost in 10 years??

And the funny thing about what "gaswalla" stated was the same FUD that was raised against Prius! Remember how the cost of replacing the battery was going to make that hybrid car pretty much dead on arrival? I suppose this sort of argument is par for the course for any technological change that perturbs the status quo!

 

[ztanos]

it's hard to agree that the LEAF is a flop, at least not at this point. Nissan seems to have engineered and built a generally very good product. However, it is flawed and there may be some truth to the argument that it was released too soon. I don't own a LEAF, no EV at all, not even a hybrid. There will come a time in the not too distant future where I will be in the market for a new automobile, and I have been following the LEAF's development(as well as the Volt)). Both, incidentally, seem like great ideas and necessary ones at that. As so many people on this board have said, the biggest hindrance to middle class folks (like me) in buying a LEAF is cost. I factor into that cost the fact that the battery will degrade over 8-10 years, to the point that many people will want to trade their car in. Right now, I own 3 vehicles, the newest one being a 2003! People keep their cars longer than they did when I was growing up(I am 57 ). If the car needs a new battery pack after 6-8 years, at the cost of $38,500 this is an overly expensive car. Yes, there is the $7500 Federal Tax rebate(and another $3500 State of PA rebate on top for me). Problem for many of us is that we just can't swing that large initial up front cost, and then wait 6-8-10 months for a rebate. Lot's of people are just making ends meet and don't have the extra cash necessary to swing the deal. Also, if the car is getting realistically 70 miles or so, under ideal driving and weather conditions, then Nissan is expecting customers to pay premium for a car with limited capabilities. Even though, by all accounts, this is a fun car to drive that suits many families perfectly, it falls short for many others. If the cost were more reasonable, a lot of people could make do with the limitations. But $38,000(or even $27,000 assuming the tax rebates) is a large ticket price for a commuter car. I am hoping that the Smyrna plant opening will allow prices to drop, and that battery enhancements will up the mileage range. If those 2 happen(and they are big ifs) then Nissan has a real shot at success here. I certainly hope that it works out for them, as the US needs this.

As for battery degradation, nobody will have the real data to know about that for a decade, so why worry about it now? I am fully confident this car will be running in 10 years... how far can I go in 10 years, who the heck knows, but I'm ready to take the risk.
Ultimately being an early adopter is a risk, but it's a risk well worth taking, so I hope you set your concerns aside and take the leap.

JG

Umm.. the data does exist for battery degradation.. and it's pretty much guaranteed that at at 10 years, you'll have less than 25 usable miles on a charge...I'll take a Prius, buy a gallon of gas, and go twice as far.

I didn't realize the LEAF had been out for 10 years yet.