Steal Your Battery program: Any news? Hello Nissan?

[tcherniaev]

Well, they did not specify if it's going to be by spring in the North hemisphere or in the South hemisphere. So they technically have until September.

 

[Nubo]

Feb 29.

 

[thankyouOB]

andy?
can you give us a hint?
please!!!!

 

[thankyouOB]

does the advisory group have anything to add on battery replacement, costs, promised "help" from Nissan?

 

[ERG4ALL]

I'm trying to think what Nissan is up against. The Tenn. battery plant is up and functioning but with excess capacity I'm sure. However, now Nissan needs to consider what its costs will be at various levels of volume for the plant. Add to that if Nissan is planning to bring out several varieties of hybrid cars, that also impacts the volume. On top of that many of the additional uses will be from car models that are not yet on the market so there is no track record of how fast they will be accepted by the public. Finally, if there are enhancements to the battery technology or even a whole new battery technology, that will have to be factored in relation to volumes and the potential impact that will have on sales. As Andy said, they want to make sure that the prices they do come out with will be stable and not vacillate all over the map over the near future.

 

[walterbays]

I'm trying to think what Nissan is up against. ...As Andy said, they want to make sure that the prices they do come out with will be stable and not vacillate all over the map over the near future.

Yes, I've realized all along that Nissan has a lot of uncertainty in its costs, and I don't envy them the job of setting a price. However it would be very beneficial to Leaf sales, not to mention to current Leaf owners, if Nissan would shoulder a major portion of that uncertainty instead of leaving it all on the owners.

They could say something like: we guarantee a price ceiling on exchange for a remanufactured battery of original or better specifications to all current owners and all who buy by the end of the year. The price in 2014 will be no more than $XXX (24 kWh); the price in 2015 will be no more than $YYY/kWh (may be different capacity options); the price in 2016 will be no more than $ZZZ/kWh.

I expect my battery replacement cost to be 2-3 times my electricity cost, which is still significantly lower than cost of a gas car. With a better idea of total life cycle cost customers should be more willing to buy a Leaf. If volumes are high then Nissan's per unit battery costs will be low and they should be able to easily meet or beat their price guarantees. If volumes remain low so that Nissan loses money on every battery exchange at the guaranteed price, then at least they aren't losing that money on very many units.

 

[Volusiano]

They could say something like: we guarantee a price ceiling on exchange for a remanufactured battery of original or better specifications to all current owners and all who buy by the end of the year. The price in 2014 will be no more than $XXX (24 kWh); the price in 2015 will be no more than $YYY/kWh (may be different capacity options); the price in 2016 will be no more than $ZZZ/kWh.

Exactly! Or do what Tesla does. Give owners an option to pay now at a heavy discount for a battery replacement years down the line when the existing battery is supposed to be end of its life.

Nissan shouldn't play dumb (like Andy Palmer did) about not realizing that a battery replacement strategy is on customers' minds. At least not anymore now in light of a cry for battery replacement pricing. Just get on with it, make the best guess on what it will cost 5 or 10 years from now, offer a tier'ed pricing plan and let customer opt to pay a low price for them now if they want to buy into it. This'd be a great way to promote customer loyalty as well as increase sales, because people know they can keep using their LEAF forever if a battery replacement program is available.

 

[thankyouOB]

the last two posts explain why ANDY needs to fess up soon, or at least give us a more precise date than SPRING.

 

[thankyouOB]

andy?

 

[cwerdna]

They could say something like: we guarantee a price ceiling on exchange for a remanufactured battery of original or better specifications to all current owners and all who buy by the end of the year. The price in 2014 will be no more than $XXX (24 kWh); the price in 2015 will be no more than $YYY/kWh (may be different capacity options); the price in 2016 will be no more than $ZZZ/kWh.

Exactly! Or do what Tesla does. Give owners an option to pay now at a heavy discount for a battery replacement years down the line when the existing battery is supposed to be end of its life.

Nissan shouldn't play dumb (like Andy Palmer did) about not realizing that a battery replacement strategy is on customers' minds. At least not anymore now in light of a cry for battery replacement pricing. Just get on with it, make the best guess on what it will cost 5 or 10 years from now, offer a tier'ed pricing plan and let customer opt to pay a low price for them now if they want to buy into it. This'd be a great way to promote customer loyalty as well as increase sales, because people know they can keep using their LEAF forever if a battery replacement program is available.

Yeah, the proposal by walterbays is a good one or what Tesla does.

As for Nissan "playing dumb", from my POV, I'm guessing that they figured if the battery needed replacement due to an accident, the car would be so badly damaged by that point that no customer would want to pay for the repairs, let alone a replacement pack. Perhaps Nissan thought they didn't need to come up w/a price so soon as they didn't think they'd hit degradation issues so quickly or degradation to a point that buyers would want to need/want to pay for a replacement.

As for the bolded part, I don't think they'd want to do that. They're in the business of selling cars. If people can keep their Leafs forever, that runs counter to that goal.

I think the words were spring or in spring, not by spring. So, they really have until June 20th...

 

[walterbays]

As for the bolded part, I don't think they'd want to do that. They're in the business of selling cars. If people can keep their Leafs forever, that runs counter to that goal.

I think they could still give people incentives to buy new. E.g., say in 2015 you had something like these choices:

For $8k, you can trade in your old battery for a reconditioned one and have a 24 kWh battery just as good as new in your 2011 car with 76 mile range, or

For $13k, you can trade in your old battery for a reconditioned 32 kWh battery in your 2011 car with a true 100 mile range, or

For $18k, you can trade in your old car for a brand new 2015 model Leaf with 76 mile range, all the latest features, bright and shiny, and that new car smell, or

For $22k, you can trade in your old car with degraded range for a brand new 2015 model Leaf with true 100 mile range, etc.

 

[mwalsh]

I think everyone realizes that Nissan is in the business of selling cars, but Nissan also needs to realize that some of their customers are going to want to stick with their original vehicles. Either because they're collectors (or have some other kind of significant emotional attachment) or because they don't believe in cars as disposable commodities. It would not cost Nissan much to satisfy these customers. For the record, I fit into both categories.

 

[edatoakrun]

As to battery pack prices, there is some news from Renault about the ~22 kWh Zoe pack price, in the relatively arcane article on how the buy-the-car/lease-the-battery-pack will be treated under UK tax policy, below.

If I got the VAT (20%?) and exchange rates right, looks like the ZOE pack is currently priced at ~$9,000.

I've seen conflicting reports on other cost factors for the ZOE battery pack , such as who manufactures it, and whether it has active TMS, and I couldn't find the answers in a quick search.

Anyone?

...Under the rules, which come into force in 2015, a company car driver choosing a Renault ZOE would pay 5 per cent BIK tax on the full list price of the car before the government’s ‘plug-in car’ grant is deducted (if the grant is still available, it is due to expire in 2015 anyway).

On top of that the driver would also pay BIK on the value of the battery – understood to be currently £7,392 inc VAT for a ZOE battery. But the car user also has to lease the battery separately, a combination of factors which CAP believes many would-be business customers will view as prohibitively expensive...

http://www.thegreencarwebsite.co.uk/blog/index.php/2013/04/05/cap-warns-renault-against-battery-lease-for-evs/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[thankyouOB]

nissan apparently has a choice here, as noted above.
in the end, it will be a question of whether they want to force some of us OUT OF the EV market.

Nissan can price the battery replacement so folks who need to go 50-70 miles a day are forced to sell after 3 or 4 years, or they can make it possible to replace the battery at a reasonable price and keep the car.
i hope they dont decide that they want us all to buy new EVs every 3-4 years. That likely will move me away from Nissan EVs and be death for their product.
I see NO reason to buy car that often and never have done so.
i buy what i consider to be at the top of my price range and treat it well, so it lasts.
i do not want to be perpetually indebted to the auto or finance industry for a vehicle.

 

[JPWhite]

nissan apparently has a choice here, as noted above.
in the end, it will be a question of whether they want to force some of us OUT OF the EV market.

Nissan can price the battery replacement so folks who need to go 50-70 miles a day are forced to sell after 3 or 4 years, or they can make it possible to replace the battery at a reasonable price and keep the car.
i hope they don't decide that they want us all to buy new EVs every 3-4 years. That likely will move me away from Nissan EVs and be death for their product.
I see NO reason to buy car that often and never have done so.
i buy what i consider to be at the top of my price range and treat it well, so it lasts.
i do not want to be perpetually indebted to the auto or finance industry for a vehicle.

Agreed with your points. Can Nisan sell the battery pack and installation at cost and meet the above criteria? They can afford a loss leader for a short while but not forever. If their 'gen 2 ' battery does not degrade as fast then they could chose to subsidize replacement of the Gen1 pack to ensure the next gen battery and vehicle sells well and they keep their reputation as an innovative car maker. They will do what protects their bottom line, Goshn will play the long game, whatever he perceives that as.

If the gen 2 pack doesn't gain them that much, those if us in warmer climates and high mileage requirements may indeed be faced with costly maintenance every 5 years or so, or dump the car and switch to a emissions warranted PHEV.

 

[thankyouOB]

i would like to think that Nissan's goal is to make us happy as consumers, even if we only shop with them once a decade.
that would create more sales through new customers and a broader market; they are not going to get me to buy something that is useless after 3 or 4 years. it is NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, ever.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

nissan apparently has a choice here, as noted above.
in the end, it will be a question of whether they want to force some of us OUT OF the EV market.

Nissan can price the battery replacement so folks who need to go 50-70 miles a day are forced to sell after 3 or 4 years, or they can make it possible to replace the battery at a reasonable price and keep the car.
i hope they dont decide that they want us all to buy new EVs every 3-4 years. That likely will move me away from Nissan EVs and be death for their product.
I see NO reason to buy car that often and never have done so.
i buy what i consider to be at the top of my price range and treat it well, so it lasts.
i do not want to be perpetually indebted to the auto or finance industry for a vehicle.

Agreed.

One of the perpetual points of the naysayers is that an EV will require an expensive new battery every 5 years. I hope that Nissan doesn't prove them right.

Showing that they stand behind their product, and will support its continued use for 15-20 years, will only HELP Nissan sell more EVs.

 

[thankyouOB]

hey Chelsea,
what do you think?
does Nissan want to keep the car-keeper crowd or make an EV a disposable product lie a 2k apple laptop?

 

[gascant]

nissan apparently has a choice here, as noted above.
in the end, it will be a question of whether they want to force some of us OUT OF the EV market.

Nissan can price the battery replacement so folks who need to go 50-70 miles a day are forced to sell after 3 or 4 years, or they can make it possible to replace the battery at a reasonable price and keep the car.
i hope they dont decide that they want us all to buy new EVs every 3-4 years. That likely will move me away from Nissan EVs and be death for their product.
I see NO reason to buy car that often and never have done so.
i buy what i consider to be at the top of my price range and treat it well, so it lasts.
i do not want to be perpetually indebted to the auto or finance industry for a vehicle.

Ghosn's attitude is that the LEAF and their other EV's (save, perhaps the NV2000) are mass market cars. As such, they have to design them to last 10 years, even if it means battery replacement. I see a lot of 8-10 year old Nissans when I take my wife's Altima Hybrid in for service at the dealer. So, if that's any guide, the LEAF shouldn't be any different.

If you ask anyone who's fully entrenched in sustainability, they will all say that keeping an existing car going has a much smaller carbon footprint than buying a new one. I was very happy that I was able to sell my Prius to a family that is now using it as their primary work horse vehicle, replacing a Ford Expedition (which they keep only for vacations).

 

[dhanson865]

I'm seeing used Leafs on Autotrader for about $16,000 with 10 or 11 bars and $18,000 with 12 bars (all with what I'd consider low mileage). I'm seeing post from OrientExpress that suggest that the projected used price will drop several thousand dollars sometime this year (I'm guessing as soon as it gets hot and the demands for buybacks start up again).

Depending on Nissan's response (about battery replacement pricing) there will either be supported early adopters repeating their story with some caution for hot climates or there will be widespread stories about not enough support for early adopters and sales will dwindle again as more Nissan customers move to Tesla, Toyota, Ford, etcetera.

Myself I'd like a 2013 leaf but if Nissan doesn't support their customers I'll probably end up going with an older car. One of two options

Option A 2011 leafs coming off buyback and or being sold by original owners drop low enough in value that I pick one up anyway (say $12,000 for a 2011 with 12 bars that hasn't been driven in a "hot" state).

Option B I give up on the Leaf entirely and grab a second Prius.

I'll be saving up some cash so I can jump if the right opportunity presents itself but for all the people involved other than myself we should hope that Nissan doesn't let the Leaf name lose value.

How cheap does the retail value of your leased leaf have to be before you lose all faith in Nissan and jump to a car from another company at the end of your lease?

How many owners will decide that the battery warranty isn't enough after this summer or next?

A low replacement battery cost stems that tide, A high battery replacement cost becomes fuel for attack adds and pundits. The FUD will fly freely given a little fuel.