Spreadsheet : VINs, Delivery Dates, Order Dates etc

[MikeyD]

There aren't 20,000 orders. There are 20,000 reservations. There isn't anything to indicate that there are even 8000 orders yet. The 8000 is extrapolated from the 40% conversion rate of reservation to order that has occurred so far, for the X number of reservation holders who have been given a chance to order. That is to say, if all 20,000 reservation holders were given a chance to order, the estimate is 8,000 of them might actually order. But nobody knows what "X" is.

Think about how many of the folks on this forum and in the spreadsheet have recently received delivery date information (even people that have ordered as late as November) - even if this forum has far less penetration than we have been speculating (meaning there are lots of orders we know nothing about), to me the fact that so many people we _do_ know about are seeing dashboard activity says the actual number of orders that have been placed is not massive. Which fits with the reality I see around me - lots of people are very interested in our car, conceptually...to go from there to deciding to buy one is a major, major decision. There is much work to be done yet.


Edit: don't get me wrong - I'd LOVE to see thousands of Leafs on the road within a few months. In fact I'm agonizing for that dream to come true as soon as possible. I'm just trying to be realistic, and counting on the underlying assumption that Nissan is in it for the long haul.

I should have been a bit more clear, I know there are 20,000 Reserves, but only 8,00 who have placed an Order. My questions basically was, with the amount of information we have at this point (the fact that so many people are seeing DB activity) is it 'okay; to speculate that by Summer us in the "Forgotten 36" will have a chance to place a Reservation? Of course, that is a matter of opinion and a lot of going off of the little information we know. Like you said though, it would appear a lot *smaller* number of people are actually placing orders, which gives me (A Nebraskan and a fellow "Forgotten 36"er) some hope that I might get to reserve around the time Tier 1 people Reserved last year.

Got to keep up the hope! haha Thanks for the reply man.

 

[wsbca]

Question about this article, they are saying that the 8,000 or so orders will 100% have their Leafs' by Summer 2011 end. Now, what about the other 12,000?

There aren't 20,000 orders. There are 20,000 reservations. There isn't anything to indicate that there are even 8000 orders yet. The 8000 is extrapolated from the 40% conversion rate of reservation to order that has occurred so far, for the X number of reservation holders who have been given a chance to order. That is to say, if all 20,000 reservation holders were given a chance to order, the estimate is 8,000 of them might actually order. But nobody knows what "X" is.

Do you know this information (40% conversion rate) to be true or are you speculating? I was thinking along the same lines but there wasn't enough detail in the article to come to any conclusion.

No, I do not know whether the 40% conversion rate is true, it's simply what I've read (in the article a few posts up, among other places). My main point is that, regardless of the conversion rate, nobody has actually said how many orders have been placed. The article above says:

So far, about 40 percent of those with reservations have carried through and bought a car, which would imply a sales rate of 8,000 cars.

Note the words "so far" and "rate". There is no assertion that all 20,000 reservation holders have been given that opportunity to order (which is what it would take, according to Nissan, to generate 8000 orders)....in fact I think we are pretty sure that is not true, right? I mean, it seems highly unlikely that we have 50% of deliveries in our spreadsheet but only 4% (300/8000) of (hypothetical) placed orders. If you forced me to choose between whether there are 1000 placed orders or 8000, I think I'd have to pick 1000 (a fabricated proposition, I know).

 

[kutzsche]

Why is it that reservation date - order date and delivery date are not in line? I reserved my car on April 20 at around 2:37pm. I was allowed to order in early November, now finally got an April delivery estimate. A friend of mine reserved about 20 min earlier, but was allowed to reserve already in August and received his Leaf a few weeks ago.
I called Nissan and asked them how this can be, but they just gave me some bs answer.
In the spreadsheet I see there are people that reserved a day later (April 21) but they got to reserve the car well ahead of me (September or October). I don't mind waiting, but I do mind not getting the CA rebate.

Has anyone figured out why Nissan seems to be processing out of order (despite their claim to do otherwise). Not that my friend is in the same area, so it can't just be explained by different roll out dates for different areas.

 

[wsbca]

Why is it that reservation date - order date and delivery date are not in line? I reserved my car on April 20 at around 2:37pm. I was allowed to order in early November, now finally got an April delivery estimate. A friend of mine reserved about 20 min earlier, but was allowed to reserve already in August and received his Leaf a few weeks ago.

Do you have the same dealer? (note sure if that matters, but I would not rule it out as a factor)

Do you have the same EV Project status? And if so, was that true throughout (for example did both of you get pre-approved based on the questionnaire, or did he get pre-approved and you had to wait for an on-site eval...)

 

[JPC2822]

kutzsche- although some still believe that Nissan is doing LEAF ordering and delivery in order IT IS NOT TRUE! To you and any other people trying to make "sense" of LEAF orders and deliveries- DO NOT DO IT- you will drive yourself insane!
I tried before and I almost did go mad! Must use "Serenity prayer" for Nissan LEAF matters!

 

[evnow]

In the spreadsheet I see there are people that reserved a day later (April 21) but they got to reserve the car well ahead of me (September or October). I don't mind waiting, but I do mind not getting the CA rebate.

I don't think these are correct. Some of them have used the date they got a reservation confirmation, rather than actual reservation date. But I'm surprised to see a Nov order date for your reservation time.

 

[kutzsche]

I've got got onto the reservation wait list the same way he did - through an online questionaire. The main difference is that after the reservation, he got his chance to order much earlier. I called Nissan at the time and they said basically "they don't know and I just need to wait". I really don't get it. It has nothing to do with what dealer I chose, since the chance to order it was months after his.

I also just recently got an April delivery date. It appears almost everyone has gotten an April delivery date and obviously that can't be true. Most likely Nissan will move than again, they just want to keep us engaged, otherwise people might cancel their order out of frustration.

 

[evnow]

I've got got onto the reservation wait list the same way he did - through an online questionaire. The main difference is that after the reservation, he got his chance to order much earlier.

Didn't you say he reserved earlier than you did ? That can make a lot of difference. There were thousands of reservations within the first hour.

 

[turbo2ltr]

Another 19 april/may delivery dates today, 5 of which were new entries.

 

[gascant]

I agree, you shouldn't try to make sense from Nissan's system. A good friend placed his reservation a full hour after me, yet got his RAQ a full 3 weeks before me and now has a March '11 delivery. He's not on the forum, though. I might go with him to pick his up as I'm very happy for him.

 

[garygid]

Your friend Reserved 20 minutes before you, so that put you perhaps 3000 Reservations later in the Queue than his position.

So, he got to RAQ and Order in Aug, and you much later, something like 3000 "places" later.

Makes perfect sense to me.

 

[hill]

Wow, count me stumped. Just last night I read the last month's worth of postings in this very thread, and went to bed thinking I wouldn't see my car before June. Imagine my surprise when I awoke to an email announcing my car would be delivered sometime in April!! . . . . . . . . . . . . . snip

Hub boy . . . . this is not going to go well. Think about it. August 31 ... Sep 1 & 2 orders no where to be seen (much less an actual delivery date/VIN notification) ... and now the October orders ... all the way on into the next YEAR, are supposed to be getting delivered the same month as those of us who got in as early as possible? Either there's a HUGE crock being put forth, or ....... it'll be like a constipated person who just downed 2 quarts of Barium enema.
STAND BACK ! !

:lol:

.

 

[walterbays]

There aren't 20,000 orders. There are 20,000 reservations. There isn't anything to indicate that there are even 8000 orders yet. The 8000 is extrapolated from the 40% conversion rate of reservation to order that has occurred so far, for the X number of reservation holders who have been given a chance to order. That is to say, if all 20,000 reservation holders were given a chance to order, the estimate is 8,000 of them might actually order. But nobody knows what "X" is.

Nobody but Nissan knows what X is. But the spreadsheet now shows them handling reservations through about mid July 2010. I don't know that they have indeed offered RAQ to everyone who reserved before mid July, but let's assume that's the case. Based on earlier reports of reservation count, I figure they've made it through about 16,000 reservations with 4,000 still waiting to RAQ. If 40% of those who they have offered a chance to order have done so, that's 4,800 orders. Also note that those numbers include people outside the rollout states who didn't order because they weren't allowed to do so.

 

[wsbca]

note that those numbers include people outside the rollout states who didn't order because they weren't allowed to do so.

I think that's the key, and it's a big part of why I don't think there are that many orders in place.

 

[LeafinThePark]

note that those numbers include people outside the rollout states who didn't order because they weren't allowed to do so.

I think that's the key, and it's a big part of why I don' think there are that many orders in place.

Agreed. That is why I wonder what the 40% number really is. 40% of reservations converted to orders so far or 40% of reservations that were allow to have ordered?

Does anyone know the distribution of reservations? i.e. how many in the initial roll-out states vs. second wave states vs. everywhere else. A breakdown by state would be very interesting.

 

[wsbca]

Does anyone know the distribution of reservations? i.e. how many in the initial roll-out states vs. second wave states vs. everywhere else. A breakdown by state would be very interesting.

No doubt there are nuances due to relative urban density and maybe some subtle socio-political influences, but I'd be pretty surprised if the distribution of the initial batch of reservations wasn't for the most part fairly closely aligned with the relative populations of each state. Alternatively, I'd suggest that a pretty sound predictive tool, if it was available, would be the relative number of Priuses registered in each state.

 

[charlie1300]

Just some observations:
1. I seriously doubt that who ever set up the online reservation system at Nissan even remotely thought that customers would be trying to calculate reservation/order/delivery by days , let alone hours. It's not that fined-tuned.
2. Consider that Nissan might be giving preference to CA customers to increase sales while the CA rebate still has money left in the allocation. They did this for Japanese customers whose rebate was expiring 3/31/2011.
3. There are a lot of factors that Nissan has to deal with in the roll-out - dealer readiness, shipping issues, commitments to the Ev project, etc, that are beyond the individual reservation/order date sequence.
4. This is a regional roll-out - that means Nissan will be pushing additional product out to the initial region while they start up in the next regions. Consider the possibility that there are sub-regions (e.g. CA before AZ) within each region that affect the sequencing.

"reading the tea Leafs" of the sequencing from individual reservations/orders dates looks like a hopeless and frustrating activity. Your Leaf will get there when it gets there. Have a beer and relax.

 

[planet4ever]

2. Consider that Nissan might be giving preference to CA customers to increase sales while the CA rebate still has money left in the allocation. They did this for Japanese customers whose rebate was expiring 3/31/2011.

No, totally different story. In Japan they could increase their sales by delivering early, and the Japanese government would have to pony up additional money to make that happen. In California it's not a date limit but a dollar limit, and the way it is now structured the LEAF has very little competition for the money. Pouring extra cars into CA early won't make any significant difference in how many cars Nissan sells there.

Ray

 

[DaveEV]

2. Consider that Nissan might be giving preference to CA customers to increase sales while the CA rebate still has money left in the allocation. They did this for Japanese customers whose rebate was expiring 3/31/2011.

No, totally different story. In Japan they could increase their sales by delivering early, and the Japanese government would have to pony up additional money to make that happen. In California it's not a date limit but a dollar limit, and the way it is now structured the LEAF has very little competition for the money. Pouring extra cars into CA early won't make any significant difference in how many cars Nissan sells there.

Now that they've split passenger vehicles from trucks, yes. Good thing they did, since trucks qualify for up to $20k in rebate money - we saw the funds drain quickly with just a few purchases...

 

[BlueSL]

I'd suggest that a pretty sound predictive tool, if it was available, would be the relative number of Priuses registered in each state.

This is an excellent suggestion. I am willing to bet that such a yardstick would prove pretty darn accurate at the end of the day.