So after EVs take over, what's our next trick?

[edawg]

After purchasing a hybrid and much research on an EV as our next step to "change the world", I had a philosophical moment to share and get folks thoughts on the big picture we're involved in here...

Today, ICE cars are more than just transportation to work or lacrosse practice... They're a primary creator of jobs, wealth and power for the country... But they have increased in price to the point where a normal car is approaching 2 years average worker salary in many cases when you consider the full operating price of the vehicle (time value of money, insurance, taxes, etc.)... Add to this the financial industry that pays for assembly plants, supplier part inventory and wholesale and retail financing and we rely on the "gas economy" more than we care to admit. The fact that there are increasing numbers of car companies from all over the world selling into the US attests to the fact that other countries get the cash bonanza and annuity that cars create for automakers and are sucking capital from us in the form of ICE engines, fancy car stereos, etc....

So now, we're close to EV's really becoming mainstream and just like the days of the railroad barron's, a major power shift is going to happen when the winner of the EV race appears and the car and oil companies start to retrench and consolidate. Lower oil revenue means oil consolidation. Simpler EVs SHOULD equal lower overall cost of ownership and less oil refinery, port fees, tanker trucks, supplier parts, etc. How many car companies will there be when the overall profit is less on a cheaper product (a la the PC-laptop-tablet evolution of computers and shakeout of the PC tech producers)

The question is "What's our next trick"? How does the average American family change their financial situation as a result (better or worse)? What happens to the infrastructure in the US we no longer need in the ICE industry (my bet is on the utility companies winning where oil shrinks). And does American influence change when we no longer pay off most of the 3rd world with oil money to get our way? Yes, I know this is a lot to respond to, but I felt philosophical over my coffee on a Sunday morning...

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

We're nowhere near EVs going mainstream, but it's nice to think ahead. Way ahead.

In a nutshell, we'll adjust.

Sorry, not a very long or philosophical response, need more coffee.

 

[dm33]

After purchasing a hybrid and much research on an EV as our next step to "change the world", I had a philosophical moment to share and get folks thoughts on the big picture we're involved in here...

Today, ICE cars are more than just transportation to work or lacrosse practice... They're a primary creator of jobs, wealth and power for the country...

This makes it sound like without existing ICE cars no one will have a job.
This style of thinking puts the cart in front of the horse and resists things ever changing. Legacy industries can't be allowed to change or evolve because it will affect existing jobs. Its a job consumption side viewpoint that makes it sound like keeping the same job is a right that needs to be protected.

I'd rather think of the economy, job market and business in general as a dynamic place where who ever adjusts first and best does best.

If GM had gone under, the money used to try and keep it afloat could have financed more companies like Tesla. Encourage new innovation, new businesses rather than protecting old staid businesses that are reluctant to change.

As the world moves to EVs and the related industries change, its best to embrace and encourage that change rather than resist it and let someone else (China) forge ahead and pass us. New industries, jobs, opportunities can emerge. Policy can encourage innovation, local employment, but not by just protecting the status quo.

New industries might include, new EV manufacturers, battery production, production and deployment of charging infrastructure, research into new battery technologies, greater focus on green energy production such as solar, improvements in managing the power grid through use of batteries in car to reduce peak load, greater focus on smart car software such as self driving cars. Self driving cars have the potential to be a bigger change and have a great impact to society than simply moving to electric vs. ICE. This can extend to improvements in travel overall, improved trucking/rail possibly moving to EVs, road upgrades for charging or autonomous operation. Hyperloop or similar high speed rail alternatives, etc.

Overall this looks to be a huge area for innovation and change to society. Very exciting. Lots of potential. Will roll out over many years, but the big changes are starting now.

 

[DanCar]

Next tricks;
1. Take over by cloud computers so that we make better more efficient decisions.
For example: autonomous driving
2. Compression of time and space by building 3d cities.
Cities are very 2d now. Have standard bridges between buildings.
3. Better understanding of science.
Particle physics is a joke. Its all waves. Electron and proton are standing waves.

 

[adric22]

I have actually wondered about this to a certain extent. I know it will essentially be the end of "Jiffy Lube" and similar business. But make no mistake, there will still be plenty of work to go around in the auto industry. While general maintenance will be less, the cars will still age and need all kinds of repair work that any older, normal car might need. Only instead of issues with engines and transmissions, it will be issues with batteries and inverters. The collision repair and body shop work should remain about the same. And while some industries like gas stations will shrink up, others will flourish like charging infrastructure and battery refurbishing companies.

That brings up another issue I have been thinking about. There is actually going to be a critical mass that will wipe out ICE vehicles. I have said before that maybe that wouldn't happen because the decrease in demand for gasoline might cause the price to drop which would keep people using ICE longer. However, when it gets to the point that gas stations begin to struggle and the smaller local stations begin to go out of business, then getting gasoline will be more of a hassle and would require going further out of the way. That inconvenience may push more people to EVs.

 

[DoctorSaul]

I have actually wondered about this to a certain extent. I know it will essentially be the end of "Jiffy Lube" and similar business. But make no mistake, there will still be plenty of work to go around in the auto industry. While general maintenance will be less, the cars will still age and need all kinds of repair work that any older, normal car might need. Only instead of issues with engines and transmissions, it will be issues with batteries and inverters. The collision repair and body shop work should remain about the same. And while some industries like gas stations will shrink up, others will flourish like charging infrastructure and battery refurbishing companies.

That brings up another issue I have been thinking about. There is actually going to be a critical mass that will wipe out ICE vehicles. I have said before that maybe that wouldn't happen because the decrease in demand for gasoline might cause the price to drop which would keep people using ICE longer. However, when it gets to the point that gas stations begin to struggle and the smaller local stations begin to go out of business, then getting gasoline will be more of a hassle and would require going further out of the way. That inconvenience may push more people to EVs.

I kinda envision a chain of "jiffy Charge" shops. In my vision, shops would have space for a few dozen EVs and could do a quick charge in less than 10-15 minutes at nominal cost. This is different than a few charge stations at businesses or scattered around a city. I see "jiffy Charge" almost as common as the current oil change shops.

 

[cwerdna]

So now, we're close to EV's really becoming mainstream

We're nowhere near EVs going mainstream,

Yep. They are NOWHERE near mainstream.

Per http://www.hybridcars.com/october-2013-dashboard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, the plug-in electric take rate (includes PHEVs) in the US was only 0.85%. Hybrid take rate was only 2.79% that month and is typically in the ~3%. This is after the first hybrids went on sale in the US in December 1999 (the 1st gen Honda Insight).

Sounds like the OP has the same misinformed opinion/views as the guy at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=148471" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (who has vanished).

 

[UBUYGAS]

I'd like a space ship that goes 100 times the speed of light. Then I can travel the stars!

 

[smkettner]

I just want a LEAF that goes 100 mile range for five years 50,000 miles.

 

[Stoaty]

Probably we will need to focus on two things:

1) The peaking of conventional oil production and the fact that unconventional oil is very expensive, very polluting, and there isn't enough of it to help our energy situation over the longer run. Once we start running out of affordable oil (which is already in process) we are going to have a heck of a time running our civilization.

2) The massive disruptions from climate change (which we have just had a little taste of so far) will occupy us for the rest of the century. The need to decarbonize the worlds economy should be plenty to chew on.

 

[edawg]

New industries might include, new EV manufacturers, battery production, production and deployment of charging infrastructure, research into new battery technologies, greater focus on green energy production such as solar, improvements in managing the power grid through use of batteries in car to reduce peak load, greater focus on smart car software such as self driving cars. Self driving cars have the potential to be a bigger change and have a great impact to society than simply moving to electric vs. ICE. This can extend to improvements in travel overall, improved trucking/rail possibly moving to EVs, road upgrades for charging or autonomous operation. Hyperloop or similar high speed rail alternatives, etc.

Overall this looks to be a huge area for innovation and change to society. Very exciting. Lots of potential. Will roll out over many years, but the big changes are starting now.

dm33, I like your idea that commerce will shift "towards innovation" rather than "resist change" so we replace the ICE business models with more "sustainable energy" businesses... The self driving aspect is also interesting... That could blend Americans desire for "freedom" of driving alone in a car into a "high speed rail" or "intelligent transit" system that would work efficiently in large urban areas. The nugget to take away here is the change is here now even though it's early. The technologies are there for "anti-collsion", "GPS" and "robotics" so a few additions of existing technologies plus investment integrating them plus a little government "encouragement" and we could have smart roads after all...

cwerdna, I respect your right to disagree, but would only suggest you look further at the data. I was curious after your post and did a little google searching to get some big picture data... The adoption curve is accelerating. Add a combination of social will (after 2 wars), technology, a healthy does of government push with CAFE standards and tax incentives to help early adopters and it will continue as long as natural resources exist to support it. My household is a micro example of adoption while the Navigant link below shows a macro example where we globally double hybrid/EV adoption every 7 years. And if a battery technology or other propulsion breakthrough occurs (e.g., fuel cell, $30K Tesla family sedan etc.), the transformation will only be faster. Or to borrow some recent history in another technology we all use, how long did it take everyone to converge on MS-Windows at a time when IBM ruled the computer business with millions of units and most "experts" saying OS/2 would win? Or iPhone to unseat Blackberry?

Another poster had a good point that as the rate of EV/hybrid "increases", the ICE infrastructure reaches a crisis point where it's structurally unsustainable and forced to change with more or less capitalistic forces driving it. (A certain company called General Motors comes to mind). Of course, the OPEC states will counter this by "miraculously finding" enormous oil reserves and flooding the oil market with cheap product to try to retain control. That will be fun to watch them squirm and catch them lying (again)...

Here are the links:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2013/06/navi-ev-20130611.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/business/energy-environment/obama-unveils-tighter-fuel-efficiency-standards.html?_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What would be really interesting is if anyone has info on the growth rate of "sustainable" business as a % of GDP... That will keep me busy on google for a while to see a) how well documented it is for mass consumption and b) it's trend as a total % of the American economy vs. the Japanese or other countries who may be ahead of us in the change. But such digging sure beats the heck out of watching cable at least!

 

[cwerdna]

cwerdna, I respect your right to disagree, but would only suggest you look further at the data. I was curious after your post and did a little google searching to get some big picture data... The adoption curve is accelerating. Add a combination of social will (after 2 wars), technology, a healthy does of government push with CAFE standards and tax incentives
...
Or to borrow some recent history in another technology we all use, how long did it take everyone to converge on MS-Windows at a time when IBM ruled the computer business with millions of units and most "experts" saying OS/2 would win? Or iPhone to unseat Blackberry?
...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/business/energy-environment/obama-unveils-tighter-fuel-efficiency-standards.html?_r=0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, are you still asserting that "we're close to EV's really becoming mainstream" with somewhere less than .32% US take rate? Subtract out all the PHEVs (e.g. Volt, PiP, Ford Energis, etc.) out of the 10,191 total plug-ins sold and you'll see what I mean. Let's put it another way. 99.68% of light vehicles sold in the US last month were NOT EVs.

You can get an idea how puny EV sales are vs. industry leaders and the rest of the industry by looking at places like these:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2013/11/usa-auto-sales-brand-rankings-october-2013-ytd-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Back to those CAFE standards, do keep in mind that "54.5 mpg" for CAFE purposes == ~36 mpg combined on the window sticker. There are already numerous vehicles that get better than "54.5 mpg" for CAFE purposes (e.g. Gen 3 (2010+) Prius counts for over "70 mpg" for CAFE purposes).

As for Windows, well Windows 1.0 came out in 1985 (http://windows.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/history" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false. I had an IBM PC starting in 1983 and don't recall most/many "experts" claiming OS/2 would win. IBM sure was pushing it but that was about it.

The computer industry is very different than auto industry.

 

[LeftieBiker]

2) The massive disruptions from climate change (which we have just had a little taste of so far) will occupy us for the rest of the century. The need to decarbonize the worlds economy should be plenty to chew on.

Bingo. Except that I don't think civilization in its entirety will survive the next 100 - 150 years. I promote EVs for several reasons: because I hate exhaust fumes, because I may be wrong about civilization becoming fragmented or even ending, and because if we adopt simpler EV technology there will still be working vehicles as the infrastructure crashes. Your kids may hate you when they are middle-aged, but maybe they will be able to go to work in the trash mine on an ancient electric scooter...

 

[tps]

I hate exhaust fumes

One of the most important reasons I drive a LEAF! Unfortunately, seeing another EV on the road here in Philly is still rare, so I still have to breath everyone else's fumes. But this will change over time. (I'm an early adopter; I ordered my LEAF within a couple hours of when Nissan opened ordering in PA.)

 

[LeftieBiker]

I hate exhaust fumes

One of the most important reasons I drive a LEAF! Unfortunately, seeing another EV on the road here in Philly is still rare, so I still have to breath everyone else's fumes. But this will change over time. (I'm an early adopter; I ordered my LEAF within a couple hours of when Nissan opened ordering in PA.)

Nissan didn't make it any easier for us exhaust-haters when they locked out Recirculate mode in all vent combinations that include Defrost, either...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

We're nowhere near EVs going mainstream, but it's nice to think ahead. Way ahead.

In a nutshell, we'll adjust.

Sorry, not a very long or philosophical response, need more coffee.

so how long you think it will be then? cause i think its gonna happen faster than you think it will. but if we look at history which is not really good especially in this case but we have nothing else so it took how long for the Prius to take over CA? 6 years? if we look at the start as being the release of the gen 2 in Nov, 2003.

Now the Prius has a lot of detractors and having owned 3 of them, its not hard to understand. they do drive differently and there is a bit of a compromise but the upside is huge and there was no infrastructure to build.

EVs really have a lot more going for them then the Prius did. it is for many an easy way to justify/finance a solar install. cut the payback from 30 years to 12. very very attractive bargaining chip but solar isnt doable for a lot of people and there is still the money. if obama can change that tax thing to an instant rebate or allow it to rollover then that will boost sales. getting more cheaper options into the market will bring in a whole new group of customers (dont underestimate the effect the MiEV price cut will have on the market)

now i dont think EVs will take over the market in 6 years. still too much misinformation being bankrolled by big oil for that to happen but i think we will easily see a 50-100% increase in annual sales for at least the next 5 years

my EV sales prediction for 2014??? 180

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

How long until EVs mainstream?

When there's a cell that's cheap, energy dense, very slow to degrade , and very light, yielding 300 mile range cars in the $15k range (current $), AND gas >$10/gal, AND the car can recharge in 5 min., THAT, is the tipping point.

So, 2050?

Predicting which future we will experience is a fun game.

We are closer now than we were ten years ago.

Definitely before we have Mr. Fusion.

 

[jhm614]

How long until EVs mainstream?

When there's a cell that's cheap, energy dense, very slow to degrade , and very light, yielding 300 mile range cars in the $15k range (current $), AND gas >$10/gal, AND the car can recharge in 5 min., THAT, is the tipping point.

The energy density, weight (combining to yield the 300 mile range) and slow degradation curve seem like very reasonable requirements -- however, the $15K range, $10 gas and 5 minute rechange may not be needed. The average car now costs $30K, so almost by definition, you just need to hit this price with similar features. EV's already cost 2 to 3 times LESS to fuel than ICE -- that is already compelling to the average driver. The 5 minute recharge requirement will take some marketing to overcome but that's what Madison Avenue is for -- explaining the benefit of low cost, over night fueling in your own garage. We just need 300 mile battery with 10 year life. Assuming that battery technology increases at 8% per year and we are at a 73 mile range now, we should have semi-cost effective 300 mile batteries in 2032.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Are $30k cars mainstream? I'm behind the times.

Ooh, how about a flexible, thin film pv panel built into the roof that supplies 10kW?

You'd only need to charge if you lived in the PNW

Of course, with panels like that, every house or apt could produce all the power we need.

How far out is that?

 

[apvbguy]

Are $30k cars mainstream? I'm behind the times.

you've answered your own question, yes, $30k cars are fairly mainstream, there are many that can cost less and many that are pricier.