Talk me into/out of this?

[padan28]

We currently own two gas cars, one larger car (23 mpg) w/135k and smaller (30 mpg) w/60k. The larger vehicle is 12 years old now and starting to have some "old gas car" problems, but overall has been fairly reliable. It is starting to rust in a few spots so might be looking pretty ratty in a few years...Thinking of ditching it now (if we decide we can live without a big car) for a used Leaf as it seems prices have recently fallen of a cliff, but a bit nervous about making the leap to the EV world. Hoping someone can either allay my fears or slap some sense in to me as the case may be...

My wife commutes 100 miles round trip to the west (3x/week) and I commute between 30 (4x/week) and 50 (1x/week) miles round trip to the east.

I have a high probability of being able to charge at work (there are two chargers on site, and from what I've seen they seem to be available most of the time), but I don't think my wife would from what I can see on plugshare, so I'm thinking she would have to continue to burn gas while I take the EV.

So if you replace my ~8500/year commuting miles at an average of ~25 mpg and replace it with electricity, it looks like I save about $680/year @ $2/gal, then add in about 8500m / 3.5 m/kwh = ~2500kwh @ $0.10 = $250 of electricity = $430 year fuel savings. Add in another ~$250/year savings from no oil changes, air filters, spark plugs, belts, transmission fluid, prolonged brakes, etc, I'm looking at annual reduction of $680 in vehicle expenses. Maybe a little more if I charge at work regularly, or if gas goes up. Sounds like battery degradation is really the only maintenance issue, is that the general consensus?

A used 2013 Leaf with quick charge option is looking like $13,000 after tax, title, etc. If I decide on a 220v charger installation at home, that's another $500 or so (right?). I can probably make about $3500 on my older car, so we are looking at about $10k net cost to get into the EV game.

I live in the northeast, so regularly below freezing in winter, occasionally down to 0F. Summer's usually 75-85, occasionally 95+. I would need this to do the commute year round, but can work from home during blizzards or ice storms...and an occasional vehicular failure wouldn't cost me my job. I'm also a little concerned about my house's location at the top of a 1.5 mile hard-pack gravel road (a little bumpy but not "off roading") with 700 ft elevation gain. In total the trip home is about 1000ft elevation gain. But it seems if I can charge at work even a worst case scenario of 25 miles home in frigid temps should be doable, would you agree? Even on a 3 year old battery (assuming normal battery degradation)?

The other complication is that we may be moving in the next 2-3 years to a yet-unknown location, possibly out of Leaf range unless I get very lucky with Quick Charger locations...so might have to sell or ship the car at that point.

While I'm all for the environmental benefits of going EV and would certainly gain some peace of mind by doing so, being the frugal-minded person that I am I can only really justify a purchase of this magnitude if it makes financial sense.

So:
1) Does my commute look ok for a 2013 leaf in the northeast?
2)Do you think I'll wind up near the breakeven point long term or is this a bad money move?
Anything else I missed?

Thanks!!!

 

[LeftieBiker]

I am fairly sure that you would have problems in the coldest weather, unless you can charge at work for sure at those times. My 2013 had a frigid weather range of about 55 miles when brand new. Now it probably has a 50 mile range, at most, in the worst cold. That is with the heat set to 70F and the fan set to 2. My car has the heatpump heater but it doesn't add heat at 0F, so the range should be the same at that temp as an S. However, in mild Winter weather, the S guzzles electrons when heated, while the SV/SL Leafs from 2013 on do not. I suggest you replace the big car with a used gen III (2010-2014) Prius. IF you can find a used Prius PHEV that would give you 8-15 miles of EV driving in nice weather.

 

[Famiconx]

I know you guys so much, that I have to answer this question.

 

[tkdbrusco]

In order to really do either of your commutes in winter with the current EVs on the market, you may have issues. This will especially be the case in a used 2013. You can only expect roughly 50-60 miles of range max on the 13-15 leafs in the very cold weather, and these ranges will only drop over time as the battery degrades. The newer 2016 SV or SL will do your round trips fine but not your wife's. I like to tell people to not rely on at work or trip based chargers on a regular basis unless they are at a large employer with a lot of accessible chargers. Base your range needs on what you would need to do the full round trip on your own without charging, cause in the few instances that you don't have access to chargers, it would be a pain in the butt.

Here's what I'd do if I were you...

(1) Go buy a Chevy Volt. With about 55 miles of range (less in winter) it will do your commute no problem even if you can't use the work chargers, and would do a little over half of your wife's commute. No worries about charging network and you'd still benefit from the decreased cost of electricity over fuel.
(2) Continue to drive your ICE cars and get either a Chevy Bolt (later this year or early next) or a Tesla Model 3 (later next year or early 2018). Both of these cars will do both of your commutes with ease. If you go this route though, you should go put a deposit on a Bolt, or plan on waiting in line on 3/31 at your local Tesla store to get on the list ASAP for the model 3. The federal credits will be running out by then so you'll want to be one of the first people to get a car.
(3) Hold tight until later this year and see how the Tesla Model 3 announcement and upcoming Chevy Bolt effect 2016 Leaf prices. I have a feeling that Nissan is going to be hard pressed to sell 2016 SV or SL model so you may get a killer deal if you factor in the $7500 tax credit. Around November of last year you could buy a 2015 SV for $26K out the door at a dealer, factor in the federal credit and a state rebate (if you have one) and you've got a pretty affordable car. The 2016 SV/SL as you know has a 30kwh battery and increased range that will give you some comfort in the winter.

Either way I don't think you rush out to buy a used Leaf. I'd wait it out for a few months at least and see how new models shake things up. Odds are the prices won't shoot up anytime soon, if anything they'll drop more, so there's no rush.

 

[LeftieBiker]

It really comes down to finances. If you want a car in the same price range as a used Leaf, then a used Prius will give you 45-50MPG average, for less money, with no degradation worries and lots of cargo space. If you can afford a Bolt or Model 3, those are the EVs to look at. If you test drive a Volt and like it, there should be some good lease deals on the 2016 soon, and good deals on used Gen I Volts.

 

[user 10599]

It could work for your commute, but not your wife's. And for yours, you would be pushing it as noted above. And when you factor in degradation over time, a used Leaf is not likely the best choice. Doable if you are determined, but not ideal.

And your upcoming move is something to consider. I got my 2013 which worked great for my commute, at the time. I didn't know that I would be changing jobs a year later and have a commute that was too long for the Leaf. Now it is my wife's car as it works well for her. Unless you are confident that your move will reduce your commute or her commute to be within easy range of the used Leaf after factoring in degradation, you would be best off going with a different option.

 

[Evoforce]

If you are sure about the availability and reliability of free charging at work, and you buy a car with a good battery, it does work for you. That would make your miles up to but less than 25 miles each way. The car can easily do that. Now as far as moving, that is a complete unknown unless you know where you are moving to, and can research the area for your needs.

 

[DNAinaGoodWay]

Leasing new may be a better option. You'd get a new battery, the federal credit off the top, and several northeast states now offer rebates. Deals are very good on the remaining 2015's, you wouldn't worry about re-sale value, and it would carry you over until the next gen cars arrive.

You're going to have to replace the big old ICE with something, but buying a used Leaf ($13k? sounds high) with an uncertain upcoming move sounds riskier as it's value in a couple years will be pretty low.

Check out your work stations every day, you really need to know how available and reliable they are.

 

[LeftieBiker]

You're going to have to replace the big old ICE with something, but buying a used Leaf ($13k? sounds high) with an uncertain upcoming move sounds riskier as it's value in a couple years will be pretty low.

That's what makes the Gen III Prius a logical choice. Used ones usually run under $10k, there are no charging issues, and they are very reliable well over 100k miles, while being cheap to operate. All they lack is driving fun. Women especially love them. ;-)

 

[padan28]

Thanks all, I think you've talked me down...for now haha.

I was starting to get a bit of an unhealthy obsession, so I think I can at least go to sleep without dreaming of these damn Leaves for awhile and refreshing auto trader twice a day.

But I just strolled past my employer's EV charging stations and they are looking so lonely...practically begging me to bring them a Leaf to keep them company...

So, I am proposing an amended personal EV strategy:

1) Do nothing until the fall. Monitor 2013 Leaf prices.
2) If prices come down a bit and I can get a good deal, maybe pull the trigger in November-ish timeframe.
3) Keep both ICE cars for the winter. Experiment by trying to not use both gas cars at the same time throughout the winter.
4a) If we can make it through a northeast winter with out ever using both ICE cars at once or cutting it too close on the EV range, experiment has succeeded. Sell the older ICE car.
4b) If prices don't come down and/or no good deals can be found, admit defeat, and continue guzzling gas for a few years until I can afford a used 30kwh Leaf or Bolt/Model3/Leaf 2.
4c) If we cannot make it through the winter without using both ICE cars at once or excessive EV range anxiety is experienced, experiment has failed. Sell Leaf in 2017, see 4b for further instruction.

I'm also worried the Leaf may be hard to sell in my area, so might have have to take that into account if I am on the fence about this "experiment" haha. We'll see what happens...

Other suggestions are welcome. I know a Volt or Prius may be a safer shorter term solution, but they just don't quite get me as excited as pure EVs...I really do believe EVs are the future, and want not only to ditch burning gas, but all the ICE maintenance issues that go with it...and I think the time is getting close that it will be a no-brainer.

 

[tkdbrusco]

That seems like a more cool headed approach. I feel like I got really excited in August 2014 with mine and sort of rushed to buy one. I got a good deal but not as good as I could have if today, but that was also in the days of $4.50 gasoline.

Is there a reason you're opposed to buying new? If you qualify for the $7500 tax credit, and especially if your state offers an additional rebate, new may be a much better option. I have a strong suspicion that come Fall you'll see Nissan wanted to get rid of 2016 SV/SL models and if you can get one at a post rebate/credit price of about $16K, I'd go for it. Odds are that the Tesla Model 3 or the Bolt won't see much by the way of discounts, so in those cases the best you'll probably do post rebates is $28K or so.

 

[padan28]

Is there a reason you're opposed to buying new? If you qualify for the $7500 tax credit, and especially if your state offers an additional rebate, new may be a much better option.

Not necessarily opposed to buying new, but it seems the 2011-2013 have depreciated quite steeply, even after rebates. My state (PA) states:

"$2,000 rebates for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) (battery 10 kWh or over) and Battery Electric Vehicle (EV) (battery over 10 kWh) to the first 250 qualified applicants."

So it sounds unlikely that I get additional state incentives if they only give 250 (per year? ever?). But I will keep my eye on the new 30kwh Leafs as well...if they can be had around $16k I think that would be worth the premium over used, so I'll see what deals can be had in the fall.