Poll: How Important Is a Price for Replacement Battery Pack?

[thankyouOB]

thanks for the offer. I am not interested in "polling' in which I would invest considerable time to devise solid questions without being able to define who is taking the poll and the methodology of selecting those who answer.

of course a HT to stoaty who got so many to respond with comments, which were illuminating. In my view, that should make clear to Nissan that the replacement-cost answer is being closely watched and that many are not happy with the wait. some do see the wait as no biggee because they presume they will get an answer shortly and it will be before they need to take any action on the battery.

to elaborate on my first remark, we used to do "polls" at a very large interest group (think AMA or ADA or ABA) where I ran communications and send it out to the media. a self-selected group that received emails or were members, answered the polls. however, the results were all dictated by who decided to answer. We figured the angriest and most active were poll takers and they had a definite point of view.
very few of the media ever remarked on how the polled folks were selected but still published stories about the results. we included that data and the methodology in our results, in small type.

polling at MNL is an odd practice, given that any member can answer and no member is required to answer.
garbage in garbage out. it may be useful when asking about actual car usage, range, etc., but asking for views or opinions -- not so much. then you have the questions, which can be flawed, as we have seen.
then you have how it is interpreted, and I wrote a mock story showing the results the way i would like them to be seen.
Leaf owners upset at no battery price. Nissan failing that group.
of course, you can do your own version.

 

[Stoaty]

polling at MNL is an odd practice, given that any member can answer and no member is required to answer.
garbage in garbage out.

Agreed... but the same could be said for getting meaningful information from comments, since those who write comments are an even more select group. We have 100 responses, but don't have 100 people making comments.

 

[evnow]

polling at MNL is an odd practice, given that any member can answer and no member is required to answer.

Same thing can be said about elections in any democracy where voting is not required.

Welcome to the real world

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Polls Should Not Be Used For More Than Getting A Generao Sense Of The Thoughts Of People On A Subject. Taking The Comments With The Poll Results Should Have (And It Did IMO) Given Us That

 

[thankyouOB]

OK, let's see how important knowing the price of a replacement battery pack is to the MNL community. Comments are welcome also.

this is how the poll was presented when posted.
all i am saying is that this (my boldfacing) is not actually what we got.

 

[planet4ever]

Ninety-five percent of LEAF drivers (as well as a few LEAF fans) have told Nissan they are concerned or want to know what it will cost them to replace a battery pack on their car, according to a survey just released. just 5% of Leaf drivers and fans say they don't care about the issue.

I am among the 25% who are mildly interested, but that's because I am interested in nearly everything about the LEAF, even those things that don't affect me personally. But I really don't care about the "issue", because I have no interest in ever replacing the battery in my car. In the first place, I fully expect to turn it in at the end of my lease because there should be considerably better options on a new car by then. In the second place, even it I were to keep it, I consider 70% of the original capacity enough to satisfy my requirements, and I count on Nissan to keep it at least at that level for five years. And finally, in the extremely unlikely event that I kept the car longer than five years, I would get rid of it as soon as the battery was too far degraded for my needs.

Ray

 

[JPWhite]

based on the flawed content, it seems to be posted for affect and for some reason other than taking the pulse of MNL owners with regard to battery price, trade-in value and dealership pricing for installs.

Yes, my secret ulterior motive is to undermine the success of the Leaf. :twisted: I haven't done a thing for Leaf owners... with the possible exception of the Battery Aging Model (50 hours), Battery Capacity Loss section on the Wiki (over 50 hours), and the Leaf Battery App Manual (over 20 hours).

Slacker :lol:

 

[JPWhite]

The desire to know the price of a replacement pack has been voiced from before the first LEAF was delivered.

I went to a test drive event before LEAF was launched. Guess what folks asked? How much for a new pack? Folks who own LEAF want to know, those who don't may have an interest before deciding to buy or simply test drive.

Nissan can either
1. Tell us the replacement price
2. Announce a battery lease replacement program.

Silence is not an option IMHO.

 

[GRA]

The desire to know the price of a replacement pack has been voiced from before the first LEAF was delivered.

I went to a test drive event before LEAF was launched. Guess what folks asked? How much for a new pack? Folks who own LEAF want to know, those who don't may have an interest before deciding to buy or simply test drive.

Nissan can either
1. Tell us the replacement price
2. Announce a battery lease replacement program.

Silence is not an option IMHO.

I think all the BEV companies will have to go to battery lease eventually, given the lack of long-term durability info. And not for replacement at 70%, either. Given the short ranges currently attainable, 80% is the minimum that won't cramp too many people, and matches Smart's battery lease: 88% of U.S. Smart ED customers (53/60) opted for battery lease in May, the first month of availability for the 3rd Gen. Battery leasing also allows an easy upgrade option for installing a higher capacity/cheaper pack down the road, vastly improving the long-term viability of these cars. People want predictability, and battery leasing gives that at least until we have far better longevity info and/or batteries. We need to get it in a car with a wider market niche than a Smart, though.

 

[WetEV]

And not for replacement at 70%, either. Given the short ranges currently attainable, 80% is the minimum that won't cramp too many people, and matches Smart's battery lease: 88% of U.S. Smart ED customers (53/60) opted for battery lease in May, the first month of availability for the 3rd Gen.

A lower cost solution would be a replacement at 70%. You are throwing away roughly half of the useful life of the batteries by taking them out of service at 80%. For example, look at "Houston, TX" in the wiki, and notice that 3 years is 80.5%, and 6 years is 70%.

If that means that slighter larger batteries (~10%) are needed at a (~10%) higher initial cost, so be it. If that means that people accept shorter ranges (~10%), so be it.

My understanding of battery wear out is that capacity declines at a decreasing rate until at least a 70% loss. So a most economical end of life is something more than 70%. Costs more to replace quicker, as you pay for batteries more often.

This does assume constant battery technology, which isn't quite true. If you might expect the replacement battery to be much cheaper than the initial battery, it might make sense to start with a smaller battery pack and replace it with a larger, cheaper battery pack.

(Edited: Thanks to Stoaty for feedback.)

 

[Stoaty]

My understanding of battery wear out is that capacity declines at a decreasing rate until somewhat after 70% loss, then the rate of loss starts to accelerate.

News to me. Do you have a reference?

 

[RegGuheert]

This does assume constant battery technology, which isn't quite true.

This is the other big reason I am not interested in the price of a replacement pack. If my pack wears out during the warranty period, then it is on Nissan. If it wears out soon thereafter, then I doubt I would want the same technology, given the mild climate and usage our pack experiences. If it lasts a long time, then I doubt the current technology will even be an option by then.

 

[WetEV]

My understanding of battery wear out is that capacity declines at a decreasing rate until somewhat after 70% loss, then the rate of loss starts to accelerate.

News to me. Do you have a reference?

This wasn't key the point I was trying to make, and while I've heard this from a real battery engineer I once shared an office with, I'm not sure if it is true.

I'll edit the post to remove this statement.

 

[JPWhite]

If it lasts a long time, then I doubt the current technology will even be an option by then.

Car OEM's are required to make spare parts available for a period of time after a car is sold. Not sure how many years that is. If an upgrade to new chemistry isn't an option for our vehicles they maybe required to keep making the old tech to keep spares on the shelf.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Car OEM's are required to make spare parts available for a period of time after a car is sold. Not sure how many years that is. If an upgrade to new chemistry isn't an option for our vehicles they maybe required to keep making the old tech to keep spares on the shelf.

There was some discussion of this recently. The usual "car manufacturers have to make replacement parts available for ten years" seems to be something of a myth:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=13058&start=26" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Certain pollution control devices, such as catalytic converters, are required to be maintained for a number of years. Other than that, IS there really some sort of legal requirement that replacement parts be made available?

 

[thankyouOB]

news story on page four is updated to reflect that
3 out of 4 LEAF owners and fans want a battery price.

 

[evnow]

My understanding of battery wear out is that capacity declines at a decreasing rate until somewhat after 70% loss, then the rate of loss starts to accelerate.

News to me. Do you have a reference?

There was a blog run by someone (IIRC) from RMI - which talked about this. After a point the battery degradation accelerates - and a complete failure can happen at any point. He was intimately involved in battery research and I've no reason to doubt what he wrote. But unfortunately last time I tried to find that blog, I couldn't.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

My understanding of battery wear out is that capacity declines at a decreasing rate until somewhat after 70% loss, then the rate of loss starts to accelerate.

News to me. Do you have a reference?

There was a blog run by someone (IIRC) from RMI - which talked about this. After a point the battery degradation accelerates - and a complete failure can happen at any point. He was intimately involved in battery research and I've no reason to doubt what he wrote. But unfortunately last time I tried to find that blog, I couldn't.

I've heard the same thing, and seen plots, but there's no way I can find it now. It will be interesting to watch, though, because nobody knows for sure what the tens of thousands of Leafs' batteries will do over time. We will all learn along with Nissan. Given Nissan's history, and thanks to this forum, we will probably learn before Nissan does

 

[Stoaty]

There was a blog run by someone (IIRC) from RMI - which talked about this. After a point the battery degradation accelerates - and a complete failure can happen at any point. He was intimately involved in battery research and I've no reason to doubt what he wrote. But unfortunately last time I tried to find that blog, I couldn't.

Certainly possible, but one thing is against it--the statement that end of life battery packs will have a useful second life as battery backup for electric utilities.

 

[JPWhite]

There was a blog run by someone (IIRC) from RMI - which talked about this. After a point the battery degradation accelerates - and a complete failure can happen at any point. He was intimately involved in battery research and I've no reason to doubt what he wrote. But unfortunately last time I tried to find that blog, I couldn't.

Certainly possible, but one thing is against it--the statement that end of life battery packs will have a useful second life as battery backup for electric utilities.

I don't see both positions at odds with each other.

EOL for automotive applications is generally accepted at 70% original SOC.
True EOL (i.e. when the battery dies) maybe much less.

It seems very likely (having experienced laptop battery 'death' first hand) that at some critical point it simply gives up and falls off the SOC cliff.