Official Tesla Model S thread

[cwerdna]

At the current rate Tesla market cap will exceed Apple in about three months.

I'm shorting TSLA bigtime. IMHO, I'll make enough profit within a year to get a free Model S. The bubble is about to bust.

Brave man indeed.

I used to short stocks long ago. I ended up losing more $ than I made. Crazy unexpected stuff would happen and the stock would jump no apparent reason, while I was short. I couldn't take the pain anymore and got out at a big loss. In retrospect, if I'd held out for a few weeks or months longer, I'd have profited. The stocks in question that come to mind were RMBS and MSTR, long ago.

This all before I learned about options. Now, if I want to short, I can make bearish bets but limiting my risk and the w/a lot less capital put at risk.

 

[KevinSharpe]

Looking only at miles when it's clear that for most calendar life is a bigger issue is comparing apples and oranges. I bet you don't find any 3-4 yo LEAFs with 40k miles with significantly less than 10% loss in capacity...

Agreed... I hope that OVMS will allow us to expose this data in a consistent way for all EV's... my Roadster is 33 months old so it's hard to tell what the variables are that give me more degradation than some other Roadsters.

 

[mkjayakumar]

This 4750 figure for Q1 is more of a testament to their production capacity than sales.

 

[Zythryn]

At the current rate Tesla market cap will exceed Apple in about three months.

I'm shorting TSLA bigtime. IMHO, I'll make enough profit within a year to get a free Model S. The bubble is about to bust.

Forgive me, I don't know much about short selling and options.
Aren't they a much shorter term than a year?
If you don't mind me asking, what level did you buy at, $40, $35, etc?

Small stocks like this are very volatile, so I wouldn't be surprised you will make money on it. I know a number of people making money loaning their long positions so that people like you can short the stock.
Best of luck to you, hope you don't get ground up like lots of the other shorts have.

 

[Zythryn]

This 4750 figure for Q1 is more of a testament to their production capacity than sales.

While true, they seem to be getting their delivery process down. They had 250-300 undelivered but completed cars at the end of 4th quarter. So it would be possible they reached 5000 deliveries. It would also be possible they were not able to deliver all they could produce, so maybe they are only at 4250 deliveries. We shall know more at the quarterly meeting, should be interesting.

 

[TonyWilliams]

nothin' wrong with a little cheer leading Mr. Debbie Downer, this is the Tesla thread after all! no one has a crystal ball and i think we are all capable of rolling with the punches if the tide turns. Even if it's short lived, it's a hell of a ride! :lol:

The DeLorean only sold about 8,000 in 3 model years (but only two years of production) and Edsel sold 84,000.

I think Train is right, we're DOOOOOOooooooomed !!!!

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

I think Train is right, we're DOOOOOOooooooomed !!!!

Tesla is, after all, the #1 killer of domestic cats.

Model S has truly created a first in the world of EVs, namely a great looking car. 90% of car buyers (I pulled that stat out my butt) if they look at the Leaf at all, see it as a curiosity but would never consider one because of its appearance. The Model S has become the must-have toy for a growing number of people.

As much as I believe in what they're doing, I'm afraid to buy the stock. I'd be even more afraid to short it.

 

[Zythryn]

Right now I think it is undergoing a short squeeze.
If it drops back to the mid 30s I may buy some more. I really am considering loaning what I have so I can start making money off the people that are shorting it

 

[N952JL]

I think Train is right, we're DOOOOOOooooooomed !!!!

Tesla is, after all, the #1 killer of domestic cats.

Model S has truly created a first in the world of EVs, namely a great looking car. 90% of car buyers (I pulled that stat out my butt) if they look at the Leaf at all, see it as a curiosity but would never consider one because of its appearance. The Model S has become the must-have toy for a growing number of people.

As much as I believe in what they're doing, I'm afraid to buy the stock. I'd be even more afraid to short it.

OK I give up. What does "short ing" it mean?

 

[Perdita]

I think Train is right, we're DOOOOOOooooooomed !!!!

Tesla is, after all, the #1 killer of domestic cats.

Model S has truly created a first in the world of EVs, namely a great looking car. 90% of car buyers (I pulled that stat out my butt) if they look at the Leaf at all, see it as a curiosity but would never consider one because of its appearance. The Model S has become the must-have toy for a growing number of people.

As much as I believe in what they're doing, I'm afraid to buy the stock. I'd be even more afraid to short it.

OK I give up. What does "short ing" it mean?

Short selling: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Short_selling" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Wikipedia is your friend....

 

[Train]

...
Tesla fanboys, it's gonna be a hard fall. Look, I'm just sayin'. Reel in the emotion because it will be a whole lot easier to take when sales of Model S' at this time next year are in the dumper.

I know Elon is your hero and you wish you could buy an action figure of him but the stock and sales figures are artificially high. We've been down this EV road before...

nothin' wrong with a little cheer leading Mr. Debbie Downer, this is the Tesla thread after all! no one has a crystal ball and i think we are all capable of rolling with the punches if the tide turns. Even if it's short lived, it's a hell of a ride! :lol:

Indeed.

 

[cwerdna]

Forgive me, I don't know much about short selling and options.
Aren't they a much shorter term than a year?

Depends on the stock and what options are available.

In looking at Thinkorswim (desktop client), for TSLA, I see April 2013 options (expired today), May 2013, June 2013, Sep 2013, Jan 2014 and Jan 2015. More options come out over time (it's complicated).

See

and

. The latter has prices for June 2013 expiration. They should expire on June 21, 2013. Monthly options expire on the 3rd Friday of a month.

Some securities have weekly options, quarterlies and even minis. See

.


The numbers in ( ) are the # of days until expiration. The 13, 14 and 15 refer to 2013, 2014, 2015. The minis (these are really new) have a multiplier of 10 instead of the usual 100.

The numbers after the month on the weeklys refer to the week #, not the day. So APR4 13 actually refers April 26, 2013 expiration as weeklys expire on Fridays. That's why it has a (7) as it expires 7 days from now.

The term isn't necessarily that important, but you want to time the expirations right w/when you expect the move to be.

There are a bunch of possible bearing bets such as buying a put, buying a put spread, selling naked calls (bad idea, IMHO), etc.

OK I give up. What does "short ing" it mean?

If the Wikipedia entry is too much, shorting is the opposite of buying a stock and hoping the price will go up (going long) Example: buy at $100, hope it goes up to $x amount, you sell at the (hopefully) higher amount. Your max gain is potentially infinite, your max loss is the price you paid for the stock (* # of shares).

When you short, you borrow shares and sell them, hoping the price will go down. (e.g. sell at $45, hope it goes down to whatever, best case is $0, buy back stock at hopefully lower price to close out your position). In his case, your max loss is unlimited but max gain is if stock goes $0.

So, to use TSLA as an example, let's say you shorted TSLA today by selling short 100 shares and you did that at the closing price (was $47.83). You'd receive $4783 credit in your account and would be charged interest. If TSLA gets in trouble and becomes $1/share, you can then close it out by paying $100 --> $4683 profit. If instead TSLA hits $200/share and you can't take the pain anymore, you can close it out by paying $20,000, which is a massive loss. If TSLA hits $1000/share and keeps heading higher and you can't take the pain, now it'll cost you $100K to close it out, and so on.

Back to options, I'm having trouble finding a CNBC Options Action video where they always cover stocks vs. options but http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000160921" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; has an example of buying a put spread on TWX but the trade went bad. They did compare the loss if you did that play vs. shorting 100 shares of TWX.

edit: Found one. Skip to ~6:15 of http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000159246" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. The reason why they say 55 cents earlier and $55 later is because of the multiplier (http://whatstrading.com/2009/05/21/options-101-the-multiplier/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false. If you buy/sell 1 contract, you need to multiply the price you see by 100.

The max profit here is $145 and max loss is $55 (the cost of the trade). As they point out, if you shorted the stock instead, your risk is potentially unlimited.

 

[Zythryn]

Many thanks!
I understand much better now

 

[cwerdna]

BTW, to expand on an example of a bearish (not necessarily the best) options play on TSLA. I'll pick the June 2013 options (since I have a screenshot of that). Those expire June 21, 2013.

I could buy a June 2013 38 strike put. It'll probably cost me $165 ($1.65 * 100) + commissions ($1.25/contract for me), so it's really $166.25 for me. $1.65 is somewhere between the bid and ask price.

When you buy puts/calls (you are long options), there is time decay (negative theta). Also, I noticed that the implied volatility (IV) is elevated right now (the % values on the right side e.g. 62.40%), probably because TSLA's going to announce earnings soon (looks like 5/9/13 after market close). On many stocks, IV rises as you near earnings announcements and collapses after the announcement. It looks like TSLA did that before. That also influences option pricing and the collapse hurts those who are long options (own calls or puts).

Option prices will go up/down depending on the underlying stock price, IV, time decay (theta) and some other factors. Using Thinkorswim's theoretical price calculator:
- on 4/26/13: if TSLA stock and IV remains unchanged, that $165 put will be worth $142, due to time decay.
- on 4/26/13: if TSLA stock goes $10 down (from today), and IV is unchanged, that $165 put will be worth $436!
- on 4/26/13: if TSLA stock goes $10 up (from today), and IV is unchanged, that $165 put will be worth $77.
- on 5/10/13 (day after earnings): if TSLA is unchanged but I reduce IV by 15%, that $165 put will be worth only $48 (lots of time decay and hurt by IV collapse). If IV were unchanged, that $165 put would be worth $99.
- on 5/10/13: if TSLA fell by $10 (from today) and IV went down by 15%, that $165 put would be worth $303.
- on 6/21/13 (expiration of this option): if TSLA remains unchanged (from today). The $165 put will be worth $0. It'll expire worthless and you'd have a total loss of your $165.
- on 6/21/13 (expiration of this option): if TSLA is down $15 (from today) and IV went down by 15%. The $165 put will be worth $517!

You don't have to wait until expiration. You can always sell beforehand. I picked these numbers mostly out of the air but ~15% IV collapse after earnings looks about right, from me quickly eyeballing data before and after the previous earnings call. You won't be able to easily calculate the values yourself. It's using a theoretical price calculator.

An owner of a put has the right but not the obligation to sell a stock at a certain price, the strike price. So, if you have the right to sell TSLA at $38 on 6/21/13 and TSLA is at $47.83 that day, that's not worth anything. Who would do that? You'd want to sell for $47.83.

But, if TSLA was $32.83 on 6/21/13 ($47.83 - $15), you bet you want to be able to sell at $38, which is why the put still has value and a pretty significant one.

 

[timhebb]

I know Elon is your hero and you wish you could buy an action figure of him....

You've been reading my mind, Mr. Wreck. Anyone know where I can find one?

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

The batteries may not catch on fire but stock sure has. Shorts getting run over by a Train?

 

[TonyWilliams]

The batteries may not catch on fire but stock sure has. Shorts getting run over by a Train?

Come on, you know he will just say that "any day now" it will all come crashing down.

 

[LTLFTcomposite]

Come on, you know he will just say that "any day now" it will all come crashing down.

Well he has plenty of coal trolls singing backup for him on FB.

Of course it could tank after it gets through murdering a bunch of shorts. The stock getting ahead of itself may not be the best thing for Tesla, when it corrects there will be lots of negative press, and all the "I told you so's".

 

[GeekEV]

Of course it could tank after it gets through murdering a bunch of shorts. The stock getting ahead of itself may not be the best thing for Tesla, when it corrects there will be lots of negative press, and all the "I told you so's".

Agreed. I'd rather see slow and steady growth rather than a bubble...

 

[TomT]

Interesting article on battery technology patents filed by Tesla. An intriguing concept.

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1083705_will-future-tesla-electric-cars-use-metal-air-batteries" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;