Official Tesla Model 3 thread

[edatoakrun]

.... I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort...

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

 

[EVDRIVER]

.... I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort...

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

This is all very true and there are also many people placing new reservations and will be as they ride in their friends cars. One person I know canceled theirs and then recently had regrets. Many reservations are also being passed on to other parties, yes there is a way to do this as well.
In all the numbers will adjust for many reasons both up and down.

 

[lorenfb]

.... I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort...

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

So true! As reality sets in, i.e. a deliverable $35K M3 and the validity of the reservations, which have been lacking up thread, some become less irrational.

 

[EVDRIVER]

.... I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort...

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

So true! As reality sets in, i.e. a deliverable $35K M3 and the validity of the reservations, which have been lacking up thread, some become less irrational.

But they will still outsell every EV on the market to date combined and they will have many new orders because of new interest.

 

[hyperionmark]

.... I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort...

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

I appreciate your input. Honest. And I agree with the sentiment in general. Much more productive to the conversation then posting random unsourced links.

 

[edatoakrun]

The company which conducted the (excellent) teardowns and analysis of the Chevy Bolt and BMW i-3 is has now taken apart a model 3.

At 5:23 a question of emergency safety is discussed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35GBuxw-ras

Autoline teases that it will be reporting more from the model teardown in new videos every day this week.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCoBaFUmLRgc_-d-rkBCFyfQ

...I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

I appreciate your input. Honest. And I agree with the sentiment in general. Much more productive to the conversation then posting random unsourced links.

If you are talking to me:

I have never intentionally posted an "unsourced" link, nor a "random" one.

What are you referring to?

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

.... I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort...

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

It's possible. I put my reservation before we knew all the deets. But the car is exactly what I expected it to be for $35k except for the EAP. I never expected that Tesla would demand a full $5k premium to have autopilot on a $35k car. I also never expected they would have the gall to sell it without power drivers' seats. Or XM radio (heck that isn't even an option in the premium version). But, the car overall looks nice, and it is perhaps quicker than I had hoped it would be.

My first impression of the phone sync to unlock the car was bad. I figured it would be a fiddle and not reliable or easy to use. At least so far that's exactly what many model 3 owners are saying. There is a growing chorus for Tesla to release a novel piece of technology known as the key fob.

 

[EVDRIVER]

.... I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort...

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

It's possible. I put my reservation before we knew all the deets. But the car is exactly what I expected it to be for $35k except for the EAP. I never expected that Tesla would demand a full $5k premium to have autopilot on a $35k car. I also never expected they would have the gall to sell it without power drivers' seats. Or XM radio (heck that isn't even an option in the premium version). But, the car overall looks nice, and it is perhaps quicker than I had hoped it would be.

My first impression of the phone sync to unlock the car was bad. I figured it would be a fiddle and not reliable or easy to use. At least so far that's exactly what many model 3 owners are saying. There is a growing chorus for Tesla to release a novel piece of technology known as the key fob.

Once they can deal with any issues on the bluetooth side then I would prefer that over one more thing to carry as I don't have any keys I take with me. Anyone wonder why the car has a phone activated app or most things controlled from a screen? There are very specific reasons these features were done this way. Present Nissan LEAFs and other EVs will never be able to activate these specific features for their intended use making this the first and only car in the world to have the potential for.............?

 

[lpickup]

It's possible. I put my reservation before we knew all the deets. But the car is exactly what I expected it to be for $35k except for the EAP. I never expected that Tesla would demand a full $5k premium to have autopilot on a $35k car. I also never expected they would have the gall to sell it without power drivers' seats. Or XM radio (heck that isn't even an option in the premium version). But, the car overall looks nice, and it is perhaps quicker than I had hoped it would be.

Interesting thoughts.

I too reserved pre-reveal. My thoughts on the plusses/minuses:

Exterior appearance: with the exception of the nose (at first), far better than I expected. I actually really dislike the S & X nose, and especially the old S. So even though it initially looked funny to me, I thought the Model 3 nose was an improvement and figured they'd tweak it quite a bit anyway. While they did somewhat, I think it's more my tastes that have come around. I really like the nose of the Model 3 now. And the rest of the car is far more beautiful than I thought.

Interior appearance: Not a fan of any kind of screen that sticks out like the M3's, so this is a negative for me. But definitely not a deal breaker. I'm not the kind of person that appreciates a completely "clean" appearance. I don't mind a few real knobs and dials. I don't need everything to be run through a GUI, and in fact think there is some risk to relying on a computer to control everything. OTOH, I do trust that Tesla has the ability to make bugs right and continuously improve the UI.

Battery options: I never intended to get the base battery. This is going to be the EV that gets me off gas completely, so I had always planned on opting for a larger battery. The long range battery stunned me with its range, but also its price. I really would have liked to see a mid-range option with around 275 miles of range for $5-6K extra. I think this would be sufficient to enable long distance travel. I am still planning on getting the LR battery, but it may come at the expense of going for the PUP package.

Wheels: The aero wheels are somewhat controversial, but I think it's fantastic. I can take the covers off most of the time and then slap them on for long distance trips. I think the aero wheels without the covers are plenty attractive.

Performance: Probably a bit better than I expected, but that doesn't really matter that much to me. Standard RWD performance is going to be plenty for me.

PUP package: A bit disappointed that everything is bundled into one package, but I understand why they are doing it that way. I'm thinking I can probably live without it, but would like to see what it looks like without the glass roof and see if the center armrest is affected by the non-PUP. Everything else I think I can live without.

Supercharging access (lack of free supercharging): I never interpreted Elon's words as meaning that Supercharging would be free for Model 3's. Yes, slightly disappointed that there is not a 400kWh credit, or free Supercharging outside of a designated "home" area, but honestly, for the amount of time I'm planning on using SCs, it will hardly matter. And frankly, I think having to pay will discourage use that could just as easily be done at home, so I'm all for Model 3s having to pay.

Phone as key: Big fail. I just don't trust Bluetooth (or my phone) and think it would be clunky if we ever get a second Tesla. Still, not a deal breaker. I am hoping they can improve the software, and I will probably just disable the unlock on walkup (and hopefully I can disable lock on walk away) functionality to return it more or less to what I am used to on my LEAF.

EAP and FSD cost: I will probably forego EAP as well due to cost, but I would consider it in the future. Was hoping for more like a $3K price point for EAP and far more for FSD. Again, it would be awesome for one week out of the year, but other than that I just don't see myself using it much (even though I fully support the advance of autonomous driving).

All in all I was hoping to spend about $42K to get a longer range battery, glass roof and potentially EAP if I bumped it up to $45K. As it stands now I'll have to spend $45K to get the color I want and leave behind the glass roof and EAP. A tad disappointed on that, but none of it a dealbreaker. The positives of the car still completely outweigh the negatives, and I will stand behind my statement that there is no other car that will meet my needs (to get off gas completely) for the foreseeable future (until at least 2020, and even then I'm not so sure) in this price range.

 

[lpickup]

Present Nissan LEAFs and other EVs will never be able to activate these specific features for their intended use making this the first and only car in the world to have the potential for.............?

for......car sharing? You don't necessarily NEED a car to be built with that in mind. Certainly ride sharing vehicles have been fitted with aftermarket equipment that controls access and what-not. And let's be honest: full self driving is years away. Designing a car for release in 2017 with the ability to control access to every last feature in the car (including those not critical to privacy/personal storage like the frunk and glove box) just because some day in the future you will have the ability to rent your car out doesn't make sense. If they had to, they could make one version of the car with more traditional controls (and sell that for the next several years) and then outfit one with more limited controls for the "Tesla Fleet" market. I realize that the point is that if they make the vehicles "fleet capable" today that anyone can decide in the future to add their vehicle to the fleet, but I also think that Tesla is probably wildly optimistic in how soon that is really going to be, and there are plenty of people who are not going to be interested in renting out their vehicle at any point in the future.

 

[EVDRIVER]

Present Nissan LEAFs and other EVs will never be able to activate these specific features for their intended use making this the first and only car in the world to have the potential for.............?

for......car sharing? You don't necessarily NEED a car to be built with that in mind. Certainly ride sharing vehicles have been fitted with aftermarket equipment that controls access and what-not. And let's be honest: full self driving is years away. Designing a car for release in 2017 with the ability to control access to every last feature in the car (including those not critical to privacy/personal storage like the frunk and glove box) just because some day in the future you will have the ability to rent your car out doesn't make sense. If they had to, they could make one version of the car with more traditional controls (and sell that for the next several years) and then outfit one with more limited controls for the "Tesla Fleet" market. I realize that the point is that if they make the vehicles "fleet capable" today that anyone can decide in the future to add their vehicle to the fleet, but I also think that Tesla is probably wildly optimistic in how soon that is really going to be, and there are plenty of people who are not going to be interested in renting out their vehicle at any point in the future.

It's not only access it's for full autonomous for hire, the app is merely part of the picture and the interior camera and screen will have a special GUI. It's a bold and brilliant move but can prove to be brilliant. Even cars with no AP can have full autonomous enables per trip for profit sharing.

 

[EatsShootsandLeafs]

Quite a few of those uninformed potential buyers who may have thought they were putting a deposit on a $35,000 Self-driving 300+ mile BEV with free supercharging will be facing the decision to settle for far less as their time to buy approaches.

I suspect a large percentage of these casual reservationists will decide the actual price of the model 3 closest to the imaginary one they put a deposit on, will not be priced competitively with their other options.

It's possible. I put my reservation before we knew all the deets. But the car is exactly what I expected it to be for $35k except for the EAP. I never expected that Tesla would demand a full $5k premium to have autopilot on a $35k car. I also never expected they would have the gall to sell it without power drivers' seats. Or XM radio (heck that isn't even an option in the premium version). But, the car overall looks nice, and it is perhaps quicker than I had hoped it would be.

My first impression of the phone sync to unlock the car was bad. I figured it would be a fiddle and not reliable or easy to use. At least so far that's exactly what many model 3 owners are saying. There is a growing chorus for Tesla to release a novel piece of technology known as the key fob.

Once they can deal with any issues on the bluetooth side then I would prefer that over one more thing to carry as I don't have any keys I take with me. Anyone wonder why the car has a phone activated app or most things controlled from a screen? There are very specific reasons these features were done this way. Present Nissan LEAFs and other EVs will never be able to activate these specific features for their intended use making this the first and only car in the world to have the potential for.............?

I firmly believe most things are controlled from the screen to save money on interior features. The S and X still have lots of buttons, and any features unlocked in the future could be unlocked even if the car had more buttons

 

[dgpcolorado]

I took heat for it from a tesla forum but I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort.

I know a woman with a ton of money and she buys clothes all the time and immediately returns them. She just enjoys the buying process but doesn't enjoy the actual follow-through. That's what refundable deposits do.

People who have the option to order and are deferring are not yet cancellations, but I'll be surprised if even half of the original reservationists actually end up buying it.

Your full federal plus state is a true incentive. My state credit is much smaller. You could get a LR PUP model 3 now for $37k or so, that's a killer price for it.

You might be right, although even 200k reservations that turn into cars would be a lot. I got my reservation to keep my options open, but greatly prefer the S to the 3 — might go with another CPO S with a bigger battery than my S60 that is fewer than 13k miles from the end of the warranty. I may give my 3 reservation to a friend.

Since I can't use the federal tax credit, the combination of Colorado and federal tax credits won't work for me. That's the breaks. It also means that I am in no hurry to make a decision about the 3; I'd rather that people who can use the federal tax credit get their cars first.

 

[cwerdna]

I may give my 3 reservation to a friend.

I didn't think Tesla changed their policy on it being non-transferable. See https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf. They could approve, but I'm not clear if they have ever done so.

 

[EVDRIVER]

/quote]I firmly believe most things are controlled from the screen to save money on interior features. The S and X still have lots of buttons, and any features unlocked in the future could be unlocked even if the car had more buttons [/quote]

It's not cost driven, if possible today they would eliminate the screen as well. The design goal on this car is to have no controls ultimately.

 

[EVDRIVER]

I may give my 3 reservation to a friend.

I didn't think Tesla changed their policy on it being non-transferable. See https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/pdfs/model_3_reservation_agreement.pdf. They could approve, but I'm not clear if they have ever done so.

As far as I know you can't do that but they may have exceptions, there are ways to do this though with a some hassle.

 

[hyperionmark]

I firmly believe there will always be at least one screen in any vehicle, at least until there are holograms/projections.

 

[gene]

I took heat for it from a tesla forum but I have been of the belief for a very long time that a massive percentage of reservations holders haven't and never were going to manifest into sales. Not because the car is bad or anything, but because putting down $1k refundable deposit represented no real effort..

I'll be surprised if even half of the original reservationists actually end up buying it.

Entirely reasonable assumption.

I'd probably go with about 60-70% of the original reservation holders end up buying it, but at that point we're somewhat splitting hairs. But since the number of original reservations were about 2X what everyone expected, a 50% uptake is actually not bad!

With the amount of data we have now, it really is hard to draw conclusions. Are we seeing deferrals because they are waiting for other options? Are we effectively seeing cancellations because the previous owner group put in their deposits "just because" and don't really need another Tesla at this time? Even once we start getting into the non-owner groups it will be tough to tell because you just don't know if they are waiting for some other option. But I do think that more recent reservation holders are probably a bit more serious about their reservations. And once the backlog does get down to something more manageable and there are more out there on the road the interest level will be sustaining.

But yes, I agree with your initial statement that the massive reservation list will not actually turn into that many sales.

I agree, many of the early reservists may not follow through. But, on the other hand, in the 3 weeks I have had my Model 3, at least ten people who took rides with me immediately made reservations. I don;t think Tesla has anything to worry about whether reservations are cancelled or not as once this car is seen around town and driven/riden by the general public, they will have orders up the kazoo! Once you ride in one. you'll get what I mean. Outside of other Tesla's this car is frickin' amazing.

 

[Nubo]

It's not cost driven, if possible today they would eliminate the screen as well. The design goal on this car is to have no controls ultimately.

Which in no way justifies poor human interface choices in cars that humans drive.

 

[EVDRIVER]

It's not cost driven, if possible today they would eliminate the screen as well. The design goal on this car is to have no controls ultimately.

Which in no way justifies poor human interface choices in cars that humans drive.

Like phones with no buttons, everyone said it would and could not happen. I think 99% of the complaints and issues with the 3 interface will soon be resolved. The best part is we get choices so to anyone that does not like it they can buy another car