DaveinOlyWA said:
for anyone in the Northwest; many places use coal to meet peak time demands. in my area, about 30% of our power comes from coal but coal is only used for about 7 hours a day. but that 7 hours a day uses more than 60% of the daily power demand
I'm not from the Northwest and I realize the situation may be different there because of regional factors (like availability of reliable hydro), but are you sure you have this right? I would like to believe this is the way it works, but my understanding is that coal and nuclear power plants do not spin up and down easily (quickly) so they are not used to satisfy peak energy use, but rather provide the base. Whereas oil, and especially natural gas plants are able to cycle up and down very easily so it's those plants that come (and go) online to manage peak situations. I don't have an exact reference handy, but I read this in an issue of IEEE Spectrum magazine about a year ago (I think the theme of the issue was making the grid smarter). Like I said, I would love it if this were true, but I don't think we can say it's the typical case.
DaveinOlyWA said:
now, most of the people i talk to cannot afford to get a Leaf like me and why?? because they are celebrating a household gas bill that is under $300 thinking they are getting because its not $500 a month like it was in June.
Unfortunately I agree with the apparent tendency toward short term memory of the general populace. We seem to be more sensitive to CHANGES in gas prices and not the prices themselves. A couple of years back the price of gas quickly shot up to $4 (or more) a gallon and everyone was outraged. We got the prices back down to under $3 (who knows at what political capital cost) and everyone was happy and out buying their humongous SUVs to drive around the suburbs. Lately the cost SLOWLY climbed to about $3.75 here before falling back down to about $3.25 where it is now. I don't think the slow climb to $3.75 was felt by most people, and now that it's actually FELL, even though it's still above $3, I think people are feeling really good about the price of gas (even though they shouldn't be).
Having said that, for many people I don't think overall transportation cost savings are going to be enough to recoup the investment in a LEAF. Let's face it, it is expensive and it will take MANY miles of driving to break even. Not to say they won't, but if you ask the average family in this economy to put a huge sum of money down now so they can save money in 4-5 years, that's a big ask (it's probably a lot easier in states that offer generous incentives--mine offers none).
For me, the economics are part of the equation, but there are other factors as well:
1) Economical - total cost of ownership reduction due to cheaper fuel costs and simpler drivetrain resulting in fewer maintenance costs
2) Environmental - I do believe that a coal powered BEV is cleaner than a gas vehicle, and probably even a hybrid, considering the full well to wheels life cycle
3) Efficiency - I just don't like using more energy than I need to, even if gasoline is a more practical and convenient fuel (at this time), it's still inefficient and wasteful
4) Wise use of resources - Oil (and coal and natural gas and all other fossil fuels) are a limited resource. Eventually they will run out. And already they are getting harder and harder to get at (just look at the BP oil spill and the effect of hydro-fracking among other examples). By the way, EVs are certainly not immune to this either: in addition to some components of the batteries, the traction motors make use of rare earth magnets that use elements in dwindling supply--fortunately there is work being done in this to reduce or eliminate the need for these materials.
5) Political - I honestly believe that a lot of the issues in the world, and the mideast in particular, at least partly stem from the developed world's addiction to oil and the fact that we export a LOT of money there that winds up in the hands of a relatively few people. Sure there are other problems as well, but trying to keep that region "happy" so the oil doesn't stop flowing doesn't help finding real solutions to those problems.
6) Stability - the straw that broke the camel's back for me was the realization that gas prices are basically at the whim of a market that is out of its mind and is only very weakly related to the actual cost of production or the scarcity of the fuel. There are so many middlemen in the process, each of which is making a ton of money, and this causes the daily fluctuations in gas prices. I for one do not want to be subject to this kind of instability. I do fear that as more money is to be made in electricity that the problem will ultimately shift there (witness Enron and the California power crisis), but for now, get me the hell away from fuel commodities traders!
7) Technological - I work in the technology field, although I'm not usually an early adopter because the cost usually doesn't seem worth it to me, I do desire high tech things, and the LEAF's got plenty! You could look at this argument like this: yes, the car is expensive but you're going to get a lot of bling for that money that may make it worth the extra expense--don't forget this reason, it certainly drives people to want to buy new cell phones every 2 years.
8) Convenience - I admit I didn't think about this when I first ordered the LEAF--it's only developed by reading the experiences of people on this forum, but it sure will be nice to not have to make special trips to the gas station. You can't beat filling up at home and leaving with a full "tank" every morning!
9) Flexibility - Even though today plugged in EVs may be burning coal, that scenario is rapidly changing. Solar panel costs and efficiency are approaching the competitive point (at which time solar will probably explode), huge amounts of wind turbines are coming online, and there is a lot of work in nuclear that will allow FAR more complete "burning" of nuclear fuel (currently only 2% of the uranium in current reactors is burned before it becomes nuclear waste) and do so in a much safer way such that the core won't melt down if the plant loses power, instead the reaction will simply cease if power is not constantly supplied. So in the next 5 years I do expect the grid's makeup to definitely shift from being fossil fuel heavy to sustainable heavy. And guess what, the LEAF will shift right along with it. Gas vehicles on the other hand will still be burning fossil fuels.
10) Beginning of life cycle vs. end of life cycle - For all the technological merits of the ICE over the past 100 years, we are definitely reaching the point of diminishing returns. If you look at some of my other posts on efficiency ratings in terms of MPG rather than GPM, you'll see what I mean. It's getting harder and harder to ring out extra MPG out of engines because the consumption of fuel is already very low. It takes a jump from 50MPG to 100MPG to realize the same benefit in consumption as going from 10MPG to 11MPG. Just like computer microprocessors that for years could count on faster clock speeds to provide extra value each new generation, ultimately ran into a wall and now the benefit is gained from other innovations like multi-core CPUs. The same thing is happening to the ICE. It's pretty much nearing the point where we're going to wring just about everything we can out of that gallon of gas and it's still not good enough! That's why we're seeing an explosion in hybrids now because that's the only path to higher MPG. But why stop there? BEVs on the other hand are pretty much at the beginning of their technological life cycle (despite the fact that the naysayers like to point out that electric cars have been around for 100 years--yeah, but nobody seriously worked on them for 80 of those years!) There is a TON of brainpower being devoted to improving battery technology and there is a lot of room for improvement there. So we're starting from a point that's already better than what gas vehicles are TRYING to achieve, with a relatively immature technology that's got plenty of room for improvement. I'm very confident that in 8 years or 100,000 miles when my LEAF's battery warranty runs out that even if I have to replace the battery pack the next day, that the batteries available at that time will be far cheaper and hold a far larger charge than today. In fact, I'll probably WANT to upgrade by then!
And that's just my list! I'm sure others have other reasons as well. Any one of those things by itself would probably not be enough to sway me to buy a LEAF on its own, but certainly 2 or 3 would. The combination of all of them make it a no brainer!
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