Nissan and others have four years

[Desertstraw]

Tesla is not aiming for a massive volume, ever. Their long term goal is the electrification of the fleet, and figure out how to monetize that goal. While everyone is focused on making the lowest cost, cheapest EV, Tesla is involved in an end run, that will result in meeting their goals.

Once Tesla proves long distance travel is possible in an EV, it's likely they will license their drivetrain, pack and SuperCharger access to manufacturers who want in on supplying EVs, but are too late to the game, so they'll just license it from Tesla. GM, Ford, Toyota, all capable of massive mass manufacturing, If it costs them $1,000-$1,500 per copy to have a compatible long distance EV, that can use Teslas nationwide SuperChargers, Tesla becomes the defacto EV standard, Tesla will become an energy supplier (that makes more money giving away free electricity than building EVs), and the SuperCharger network will be vastly expanded. Tesla will making twice as much on licensing fees than building EVs. But you say, why would the majors just not build their own network? They are certainly welcome to, and could copy Tesla, but they'll probably just join them, because of the investment required to copy them

Randy Carlson laid this all out in March, in his "Seeking Alpha" article "SuperCharging Tesla"
Article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/1300141-supercharging-tesla?source=kizur" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Elon Musk:
"The overarching goal of Tesla is to help reduce carbon emissions and that means low cost and high volume. We will also serve as an example to the auto industry, proving that the technology really works and customers want to buy electric vehicles

"People will buy the car just because it's a great car. We want them to think it's excellent value for money and then, oh yeah, it happens to be electric."

Should I believe you or Elon Musk?

 

[Deleted member 8423]

But ultimately, 20 or 30 years down the line I think there will be plenty of chargepoint, blink, and eVgo stations around to take care of this.

20 or 30 years down the line, I hope there's not any sort of need for a public charging infrastructure. Then again, when I was a boy, I assumed we'd all have flying cars by this point. Technology has really let me down.

Seems unlikely that Blink/Chargepoint will be around in 10 years, let alone 20/30.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

And I, for one, would buy one in a heartbeat! I've always considered the 3 to be the sweet spot.

Musk has said that he intends his 3rd generation car to compete with a BMW 3-series.

Don't get me wrong - I will buy one too. But I will also buy a much cheaper 75 mile EV because I don't need both cars to lug around enough batteries for a 300 mile road trip.

 

[mitch672]

Elon Musk:
"The overarching goal of Tesla is to help reduce carbon emissions and that means low cost and high volume. We will also serve as an example to the auto industry, proving that the technology really works and customers want to buy electric vehicles

"People will buy the car just because it's a great car. We want them to think it's excellent value for money and then, oh yeah, it happens to be electric."

Should I believe you or Elon Musk?

Elon's idea of "high volume" is perhaps 250K to 500K per year. That is NOT Teslas end game, that's their "demonstration of viability" level, and when they are at that, that's when they'd hope to draw in the majors into their licensing model, monetizing the replacement of the ICE. You don't think Elon only wants to replace the ICE without finding a way to monetize it? He might have great goals, but he's a capitalist. Tesla plans to prove beyond any doubt that EVs can replace the ICE, have the SuperCharger network in place, and license their technology to manufacturers that can build MILLIONs of EVs, only then will Elons goal be realized.

As far as public charging? That's a total joke, no one has plans for 120KW DCFCs and is actually deploying them on a nationwide basis. By the time the rest of the industry figures out what's happening, Teslas nationwide 120KW SuperChargers allowing nationwide travel will be in place, they will then be in filling with city high power chargers, though that is far down the road, as with a 200-300 mile EV, it's primarily charged at home, so most will be able to make it to their first Supercharger on a road trip. The incity Superchargers will be to pull in the apartment dwellers who have no place to charge.

 

[TonyWilliams]

I didn't read all the posts, but both Tesla and Nissan in four years will be bumping up against the $7500 tax credit limit of 200,000 cars.

That will leave the door WIDE OPEN for folks to low ball their products that can still get the credit.

 

[apvbguy]

And I, for one, would buy one in a heartbeat! I've always considered the 3 to be the sweet spot.

Musk has said that he intends his 3rd generation car to compete with a BMW 3-series.

Don't get me wrong - I will buy one too. But I will also buy a much cheaper 75 mile EV because I don't need both cars to lug around enough batteries for a 300 mile road trip.

many of us are hoping that the technology will advance to the point that the size of the battery needed for a car to go 300 miles will shrink in both size and price

 

[adric22]

I didn't read all the posts, but both Tesla and Nissan in four years will be bumping up against the $7500 tax credit limit of 200,000 cars.

That will leave the door WIDE OPEN for folks to low ball their products that can still get the credit.

You know, I've thought about that. And it is really sad, too. The way the system works now, it is rewarding car manufacturers for taking their time. They'll sit around for a few years while Nissan and Tesla build the market and develop the technology. Then they can step in and compete unfairly. I think it would have been better if they had just given a certain amount of blanket credits to the entire industry. That would have changed the dynamics a little bit.

 

[jhm614]

I didn't read all the posts, but both Tesla and Nissan in four years will be bumping up against the $7500 tax credit limit of 200,000 cars.
That will leave the door WIDE OPEN for folks to low ball their products that can still get the credit.

That's one possibility -- but I think the Tesla's & Nissan's experience with building these products and the corresponding economy of scale will offset some of this. The phase out of the original Hybrid credit didn't affect the Prius -- Toyota had already figured out how to build a better hybrid (and also had also won the "mind share" battle by that point as well)

I think it would have been better if they had just given a certain amount of blanket credits to the entire industry. That would have changed the dynamics a little bit.

Wow! Now that is an interesting idea.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

many of us are hoping that the technology will advance to the point that the size of the battery needed for a car to go 300 miles will shrink in both size and price

True, and long term there is good reason for that hope. However, in four years? Maybe incremental changes, but I doubt there will be a technology which makes this whole debate moot. I expect that for the next decade or two, batteries will remain expensive enough to warrant building sub-100 mile cars (or maybe true 100-mile cars) in addition to 300-mile cars. If in 2017, the options are a $15k, 75-mile Leaf and a $30k 200-mile Tesla, I think there would be a market for both.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

... and find a chemistry that is less susceptible to heat...

More likely they will add a thermal management system (TMS). Haven't heard of a practical chemistry that isn't affected by heat.

No, Andy emphatically stated that no TMS will be used, but a different pack that can withstand heat and cold. I predict they will have this pack for the 2015 MY.

actually I was there and he said no "liquid cooled" TMS would be used. Nissan is actively investigating chilled air options. but if it means adding too much to the cost, that wont happen either.

the infiniti's goal is to come out at a much lower price point than most people are guessing. it is a very ambitious goal and if Nissan can pull it off, I will be elated because it will result in 24 kwh LEAF SL's selling in the mid 20's BEFORE fed tax credits and makes room for battery pack options of say 32 Kwh for right around $30k

 

[apvbguy]

True, and long term there is good reason for that hope. However, in four years? Maybe incremental changes, but I doubt there will be a technology which makes this whole debate moot. I expect that for the next decade or two, batteries will remain expensive enough to warrant building sub-100 mile cars (or maybe true 100-mile cars) in addition to 300-mile cars. If in 2017, the options are a $15k, 75-mile Leaf and a $30k 200-mile Tesla, I think there would be a market for both.

that's not really getting too far out onto a limb, considering that in the current marketplace there are plenty of buyers out there for both sub $20k cars and over $40k cars. I would be quite pleased to see the marketplace for EVs become "normal" like the current marketplace

 

[leafedbehind]

I didn't read all the posts, but both Tesla and Nissan in four years will be bumping up against the $7500 tax credit limit of 200,000 cars.

That will leave the door WIDE OPEN for folks to low ball their products that can still get the credit.

My guess is that this law will see some changes by the time they get there. Maybe the $7500 goes away completely for everyone, or at least it gets reduced substantially, to the point that incumbency and experience fully compensate for the unfair advantage of late-comers. But they other side of me says well, either way, we get more competition and lower prices, which will lift all EV boats.

 

[dgpcolorado]

I think it would have been better if they had just given a certain amount of blanket credits to the entire industry. That would have changed the dynamics a little bit.

Wow! Now that is an interesting idea.

I've also long wished the tax credit had been structured this way. But, as with the earlier hybrid tax credit, I understand that it would have been politically impossible. The domestic car companies want their piece of the pie when/if they produce the cars that qualify. In the case of hybrids they didn't want Toyota to get all the tax credits and in the case of the EV tax credit they didn't want Nissan and Mitsubishi to get most of it (I don't think that Tesla was taken seriously by the majors when the credit was enacted).

So, the credit is for a fixed number of cars from each manufacturer. That's life in the world of political give-and-take and lobbying.

 

[evnow]

I didn't read all the posts, but both Tesla and Nissan in four years will be bumping up against the $7500 tax credit limit of 200,000 cars.

That will leave the door WIDE OPEN for folks to low ball their products that can still get the credit.

If Nissan sells about 20 to 30k cars a year they will still have a lot of cars left.

Definitely Tesla wouldn't have sold 200k cars by 2016/17 with just S & X.