Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

[epirali]

Wow you better hurry and tell the Europeans, they didn't get the memo:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150924-h2me.html

Here's the title of the article linked by epirali:

"$70M H2ME project launches in Europe to deploy 325 fuel cell vehicles and 29 refueling stations"

That comes to $215,000 per vehicle fielded. That kinda says it all.

That's only if you are assuming that there will be no cars that go with those. Which is rather a silly assumption, no?

http://www.bmw.com/com/en/insights/technology/efficient_dynamics/phase_2/clean_energy/bmw_hydrogen_7.html

http://www.pcworld.com/article/3021256/car-tech/audi-lexus-show-hydrogen-car-concepts-in-detroit.html

I know you are trying to make a point, but why do it with purposefully ignoring that major car makers (specially German ones) are all developing hydrogen cars? I mean you argue hydrogen cars are worthless partly because there is no infrastructure, but if they build an infrastructure then it is useless without cars?

 

[lorenfb]

It took about 15 years for microprocessors to show in many people's homes in the form of computers.
Actually, I would define that as rapid, considering the magnitude of the change.
You apparently don't, considering modern EVs have only been around a bit shy of 6 years.

You obviously don't have much insight into how the semiconductor industry was transformed in the
late '70s and early '80s. Microprocessors/microcontrollers were used in many more products before
the home PC market evolved, and that only became a viable market because of the internet. Who at
home before the internet saw the value of the PC, i.e. who at home needed to do spreadsheets,
generate databases, do graphic arts, or write letters with word processors. Even today, most home
PCs are used for internet access and email, and of course blogging on forums.

Most are totally unaware of the pervasiveness of the microprocessor/microcontroller in all aspects
of our lives and how it significantly facilitated many growth industries. So, all the EV market needs
is a transformable technology breakthough. The present EV technology is still very similar to that
of 20 years ago with the exception of better battery technology. All the other EV technology,
e.g. electronics, benefited from the evolution of ICEV technology. No one EV manufacturer has any
key technology that any other EV manufacturer lacks access to.

Now back on topic. So without any significant BEV technology breakthrough, to discount the FCEV
in the future as likely in disrupting the ICEV as the BEV is somewhat naive at this point in time.

 

[sparky]

I know you are trying to make a point, but why do it with purposefully ignoring that major car makers (specially German ones) are all developing hydrogen cars? I mean you argue hydrogen cars are worthless partly because there is no infrastructure, but if they build an infrastructure then it is useless without cars?

I'm still searching for a hydrogen car that is better than an ICE. If I want cost&fuel efficiency, I'm better off with a Toyota/Honda. If I want performance I'm better off with Audi/BMW/Porsche. It seems H2 cars are worthless regardless of infrastructure because they fulfill no societal needs and invoke no broad consumer desire. Even my LEAF, in 2011, was pretty damn compelling especially when fueled by my rooftop.

 

[lorenfb]

I'm still searching for a hydrogen car that is better than an ICE. If I want cost&fuel efficiency, I'm better off with a Toyota/Honda. If I want performance I'm better off with Audi/BMW/Porsche. It seems H2 cars are worthless regardless of infrastructure because they fulfill no societal needs and invoke no broad consumer desire. Even my LEAF, in 2011, was pretty damn compelling especially when fueled by my rooftop.

Hardly a valid argument given the state of development of the FCEV! No one is arguing that present day
FCEVs are as or more acceptable than present day BEVs.

 

[sparky]

I'm still searching for a hydrogen car that is better than an ICE. If I want cost&fuel efficiency, I'm better off with a Toyota/Honda. If I want performance I'm better off with Audi/BMW/Porsche. It seems H2 cars are worthless regardless of infrastructure because they fulfill no societal needs and invoke no broad consumer desire. Even my LEAF, in 2011, was pretty damn compelling especially when fueled by my rooftop.

Hardly a valid argument given the state of development of the FCEV! No one is arguing that present day
FCEVs are as or more acceptable than present day BEVs.

But that's just it. How many more years will it take to be a valid argument? They're not on a trajectory to overtake ICE, BEV, or PHEV; none of which are static technology.
The numbers from some of the market research don't look to me like FCVs are a sustainable business.
"Automotive fuel cell market (Fuel Cell Vehicle market) size to exceed 14,765 units by 2023" https://www.gminsights.com/pressrelease/automotive-fuel-cell-market

 

[lorenfb]

The numbers from some of the market research don't look to me like FCVs are a sustainable business.
"Automotive fuel cell market (Fuel Cell Vehicle market) size to exceed 14,765 units by 2023"

Just think of the management consulting fee you can make when you finally convince the automotive
industry management to abort their R&D on FCEVs. The analysis is so simple and straightforward,
even an entering Harvard MBA in a 1st year Strategic Marketing class would arrive at the same conclusion
based on the presented data. How can automotive managements not interpret the data as you have?
Ah, the FCEV R&D management is "highly influenced" by the oil companies.

 

[rcm4453]

Ah, the FCEV R&D management is "highly influenced" by the oil companies.

That and ZEV credits. What other motive would there be for the auto makers to go down the FCEV path? FCEVs are the same business model as ICEVs, do you really think oil companies don't have a hand in this FCEV push?

 

[lorenfb]

The debate some of us (including me) get involved in, go no where fast, e.g. guns, religion, CO2, etc.
So let us defer to Guy to provide the usual data on FCEVs that he has been providing.

 

[sparky]

Just think of the management consulting fee you can make when you finally convince the automotive
industry management to abort their R&D on FCEVs. The analysis is so simple and straightforward,
even an entering Harvard MBA in a 1st year Strategic Marketing class would arrive at the same conclusion
based on the presented data. How can automotive managements not interpret the data as you have?
Ah, the FCEV R&D management is "highly influenced" by the oil companies.

Once I scraped off the snark from your post I could see you might not comprehend that my point is not that I know more about Strategic Marketing than Toyota. Rather, as a member of the sought after consumer group marketers refer to as "early adopters", I see nothing in the light duty FCV future-offerings that might compel me to sit in one much less drive/lease/own one.
IMO that's a problem for an FCV future vs ICE future whether one believes research that FCV light-duty vehicle sales in 2020 to be 14k or 1 million. Of the two, the former seems more credible based on 2015-2016 FCV consumer uptake. Maybe in 2017 GRA will frack-up some "usual data" to diminish this concern.
So, by 2020, how many FCV light-duty vehicles do you think consumers will lease/purchase in the U.S. and how many are necessary for FCVs to be viable?
Given the full measure of support from CARB, Toyota, Daimler, Ford and GM, I'd say anything less than 500k U.S. FCV sales by that point is failure.

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

Air Products licenses patented hydrogen fueling protocol to Air Liquide; J2601

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/06/20160602-j2601.html

Mostly the usual PR fluff, but does contain a little info:

Air Products, a leader in hydrogen fueling and infrastructure worldwide, has signed an agreement to provide a technology license allowing Air Liquide Advanced Technologies US LLC to practice the patented Air Products technology incorporated in the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) J2601 hydrogen fueling protocol. (Earlier post.) Air Products makes such hydrogen fueling technology licenses available for use around the world under fair, reasonable, and non-discriminatory (FRAND) terms. . . .

Use of the company’s fueling technology is increasing and is already used in conducting approximately 1,000,000 hydrogen fills per year. The company has been involved in more than 200 hydrogen fueling projects in the United States and 20 countries worldwide. Cars, trucks, vans, buses, scooters, forklifts, locomotives, planes, cell towers, material handling equipment, and even submarines have been fueled with Air Products’ technologies. . . .

Via GCR:

Japan wants Fukushima to be major hydrogen production center

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104253_japan-wants-fukushima-to-be-major-hydrogen-production-center

. . . Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes Fukushima [prefecture] can produce significant quantities of hydrogen for use in Tokyo during the 2020 Olympics, according to Bloomberg. Abe announced that goal while visiting the prefecture in March, and the national government subsequently enacted a program to promote clean energy in Fukushima. The program will rely heavily on public-private partnerships to develop new energy infrastructure, and will also investigate greater use of wind power in the area. . . .

 

[RegGuheert]

Via GCR:

Japan wants Fukushima to be major hydrogen production center

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104253_japan-wants-fukushima-to-be-major-hydrogen-production-center

. . . Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes Fukushima [prefecture] can produce significant quantities of hydrogen for use in Tokyo during the 2020 Olympics, according to Bloomberg. Abe announced that goal while visiting the prefecture in March, and the national government subsequently enacted a program to promote clean energy in Fukushima. The program will rely heavily on public-private partnerships to develop new energy infrastructure, and will also investigate greater use of wind power in the area. . . .

Perhaps they should consider using a nuclear power plant to produce their hydrogen!

 

[WetEV]

Perhaps they should consider using a nuclear power plant to produce their hydrogen!

That was the original hydrogen plan.

https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/5800

 

[GRA]

Via GCR:

Japan wants Fukushima to be major hydrogen production center

http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1104253_japan-wants-fukushima-to-be-major-hydrogen-production-center

. . . Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes Fukushima [prefecture] can produce significant quantities of hydrogen for use in Tokyo during the 2020 Olympics, according to Bloomberg. Abe announced that goal while visiting the prefecture in March, and the national government subsequently enacted a program to promote clean energy in Fukushima. The program will rely heavily on public-private partnerships to develop new energy infrastructure, and will also investigate greater use of wind power in the area. . . .

Perhaps they should consider using a nuclear power plant to produce their hydrogen!

An excellent use for them, off-peak. I expect China's got plans in that direction, given their continuing investment in Gen 3 (see

First Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear power plant completes cold hydro test at Sanmen 1

: http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/05/20160527-ap1000.html) and future Gen 4 nukes, although those later designs may be suitable for higher ramp rates than current ones, making them more flexible and less full power or off.

Abe's been trying to get the nukes back online, naturally against considerable public resistance. But it's either them or imported oil and gas for a long time, at least until something like the first link here is commercialized: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=21627&p=462322#p462322

and I have my doubts that Japan's got enough spare arable land to make it work there (assuming it can even be made to work anywhere).

 

[RegGuheert]

But it's either them or imported oil and gas for a long time, at least until something like the first link here is commercialized: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=21627&p=462322#p462322

and I have my doubts that Japan's got enough spare arable land to make it work there (assuming it can even be made to work anywhere).

I agree that they do not. They should use a significantly-more-efficient approach in terms of sunlight-to-miles-driven such as PV and BEVs which would allow them to use rooftops for energy collection and continue to use their arable land for food production.

 

[GRA]

But it's either them or imported oil and gas for a long time, at least until something like the first link here is commercialized: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=21627&p=462322#p462322

and I have my doubts that Japan's got enough spare arable land to make it work there (assuming it can even be made to work anywhere).

I agree that they do not. They should use a significantly-more-efficient approach in terms of sunlight-to-miles-driven such as PV and BEVs which would allow them to use rooftops for energy collection and continue to use their arable land for food production.

Japan's obviously been into PV in a big way for decades, but they run into the charging infrastructure issue for cars, especially in cities, and rooftop space issues - Japanese cities aren't primarily made up of detached single family homes. Although much of the rest of the country is, the proportion of detached single family homes has been decreasing for decades, and crossed under 60% as early as 1988. As for the cities:

A survey conducted by the Management and Coordination Agency in 1983 found that there were 34.75 million occupied dwellings in Japan, of which 46.1% were built of timber, 31.3% of fireproof timber, and 22.6% of ferroconcrete or other nontimber materials. The same survey found that detached housing accounted for 64.3% off all housing in Japan, with the ratio falling in urban areas. In the 23 wards of Tokyo, for instance, multi-unit structures such as apartment houses accounted for 62.5% of all housing in those wards.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Housing_in_Japan#Housing_statistics

On the positive side, many urban car-owning Japanese park in designated spaces in shared lots, and providing charging infrastructure is such lots/garages is a lot cheaper than providing it for on-street parking (which is banned overnight in any case). And in cities, at least, you can't even register a car without showing proof that you have a parking place for it: http://www.reinventingparking.org/2014/06/japans-proof-of-parking-rule-has.html

 

[RegGuheert]

The amount of PV I have seen in Japan during visits has been quite underwhelming. Kinda like here...[/quote="GRA"]...but they run into the charging infrastructure issue for cars, especially in cities, and rooftop space issues - Japanese cities aren't primarily made up of detached single family homes.

No matter. The fact is that there is a massive amount of already-developed space in Japan which would be an outstanding location for photovoltaics. Some examples include rooftops, on the south faces of buildings (tilted to give some elevation), over parking lots, over train tracks (which would conveniently place it at the load), over roadways, etc.

No, there is very little limiting much wider application of PV within Japan. Electricity costs have gone up so much there that PV should be very affordable. The issue with PV is that the payments need to be made up front. As such, steady implementation is generally the best approach. If daytime BEV charging facilities are implemented along with "BEV net metering", Japan could meet a massive amount of their energy needs using PV and BEVs. If they insist on using inefficient solutions, they will fail miserably to make any transition.

 

[Nubo]

Agreed. The utility of highly-compressed Hydrogen is marginal for an automobile and I don't see the technological challenges becoming significantly easier. Battery technology is also marginal for some automobile use-cases but battery technology will continue to improve. H2 has good use for stationary storage, but for automobiles it's a solution whose time will have passed before the requisite infrastructure can be developed.

Wow you better hurry and tell the Europeans, they didn't get the memo:

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2015/09/20150924-h2me.html

[/quote]

Hmmm. 29 stations scattered across Europe seems about as weak-sauce as the US efforts. BEVs will be rolling off production assembly lines by the millions while researchers are still dabbling with H2.

 

[GRA]

The amount of PV I have seen in Japan during visits has been quite underwhelming. Kinda like here...[/quote="GRA"]...but they run into the charging infrastructure issue for cars, especially in cities, and rooftop space issues - Japanese cities aren't primarily made up of detached single family homes.

No matter. The fact is that there is a massive amount of already-developed space in Japan which would be an outstanding location for photovoltaics. Some examples include rooftops, on the south faces of buildings (tilted to give some elevation), over parking lots, over train tracks (which would conveniently place it at the load), over roadways, etc.

No, there is very little limiting much wider application of PV within Japan. Electricity costs have gone up so much there that PV should be very affordable. The issue with PV is that the payments need to be made up front. As such, steady implementation is generally the best approach. If daytime BEV charging facilities are implemented along with "BEV net metering", Japan could meet a massive amount of their energy needs using PV and BEVs. If they insist on using inefficient solutions, they will fail miserably to make any transition.

Reg, Japan has had feed-in tariffs for PV for years, reducing as the cost comes down. Their government has chosen the all-of-the-above apporach, backing BEVs and charging infrastructure (how do you think all those CHAdeMOs got installed?) and FCEVs/H2, as well as PV, wind etc. I think backing as many approaches as have a reasonable chance of succeeding makes sense until at least one of them can provide ICE comparable performance at a comparable price, and you don't, but it's not up to either of us.

 

[GRA]

Via GCC:

S. Korea president promotes fuel cell vehicle cooperation with France

http://www.greencarcongress.com/2016/06/20160605-park.html

On a trip to Europe, South Korean President Park Geun-hye said Seoul and Paris can stay ahead in the hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle market if Air Liquide S.A.—the world’s largest supplier of industrial gases—and South Korea’s Hyundai Motor Co. join forces. . . .

Hyundai has signed a cooperation deal with Air Liquide SA. . . .

 

[RegGuheert]

I think backing as many approaches as have a reasonable chance of succeeding makes sense until at least one of them can provide ICE comparable performance at a comparable price, and you don't, but it's not up to either of us.

BEVs already exceed the capabilities of ICEVs at a lower cost. This is true for the significant applications called commuting and local transport. In Japan, there is little need for long-range travel in cars since they have outstanding public transport.

H2 FCVs are nowhere near the price of ICEVs. They will not be adopted in Japan since they are in any energy crunch. Anything which wastes so much energy cannot be chosen, regardless of any political will which is put forth.