"Goodbye, Range Anxiety?" When does (battery) life end?

[edatoakrun]

The article/study below may be stating the obvious, but many still don't seem to understand that EOL for a BEV battery is not a fixed percentage of new (or manufacturers specified) capacity but a result of various factors in both the original (and subsequent, if resold) owner's requirements.

Quite a few LEAFs will soon be beyond the nine bar capacity warranty, but it's unlikely many of these LEAF owners will decide to replace their batteries. This is because buying a new battery (so far only available from Nissan, for ~$6,500 with exchange) will probably not increase the value of a LEAF as much as it costs until capacity falls well below 50% of new, however long that takes.

This is due in large part to the market peculiarities imposed by government subsidies.

The $7,500 federal tax credit (plus additional State and local payments) mean that few of us ever really paid for our battery packs in the first place...other taxpayers did.

And the continued contributions of others mean that if you are not satisfied with the present battery capacity and range of your LEAF (or any other BEV/PHEV) you can buy a new replacement BEV in another subsidized transaction, which of course, many on this forum have done, some two, three, or even more times.

So if you don't decide to keep your LEAF as a lower-than-new range vehicle, you can just sell it to someone who doesn't need as much range, which this study identifies as a huge market, as have many others.

Goodbye, Range Anxiety? Electric Vehicles May Be More Useful Than Previously Thought

Berkeley Lab study finds EV batteries have a longer useful life than current standards suggest.

In the first study of its kind, scientists at the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) quantitatively show that electric vehicles (EVs) will meet the daily travel needs of drivers longer than commonly assumed. Many drivers and much prior literature on the retirement of EV batteries have assumed that EV batteries will be retired after the battery has lost 20 percent of its energy storage or power delivery capability. This study shows that the daily travel needs of drivers continue to be met well beyond these levels of battery degradation.

Samveg Saxena, who leads a vehicle powertrain research program at Berkeley Lab, analyzed real-world driving patterns and found that batteries that have lost 20 percent of their originally rated energy storage capacity can still meet the daily travel needs of more than 85 percent of U.S. drivers. He and his research team also analyzed battery power fade and found that even after substantial loss in battery power capabilities performance requirements are still met...

With today’s EV batteries, “end of life” is commonly defined as when the storage capacity drops down to 70 to 80 percent of the original capacity. As capacity fades, the vehicle’s range decreases. The Berkeley Lab researchers decided to investigate the extent to which vehicles still meet the needs of drivers beyond this common battery retirement threshold.

To conduct the study, the researchers took nearly 160,000 actual driving itineraries from the National Household Travel Survey conducted by the Department of Transportation. These are 24-hour travel itineraries showing when a car was parked or driving, including both weekend and weekday usage by drivers across the United States.

The researchers then assumed all itineraries were driven using a vehicle with specifications similar to a Nissan Leaf, which has about 24 kilowatt-hours of energy storage capacity, similar to many other EVs on the market, and 400 kW of discharge power capability, which was based on battery cell-level measurement data for the chosen vehicle...

As the battery continues to degrade down to 50 percent of its original energy storage capacity, the research found that the daily travel needs of more than 80 percent of U.S. drivers can still be met, and at 30 percent capacity, 55 percent of drivers still have their daily needs met. “Even if a driver has a long, unexpected trip beyond the normal daily travel, an EV battery with substantial capacity fade can often still make the trip,”...

http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2015/03/30/goodbye-range-anxiety-electric-vehicles-may-be-more-useful-than-previously-thought/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Full study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378775315000841" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[desiv]

So if you don't decide to keep your LEAF as a lower-than-new range vehicle, you can just sell it to someone who doesn't need as much range, which this study identifies as a huge market, as have many others.

I've always thought that because of this, there is a "floor" on the price for used Leafs. (not sure what it is tho..)
At least in more urban areas...
I always figure, even with only a 30 mile range, for someone with high school kids, this would be a great little runabout.
Also, in the city I live in, there are 2 free L2's and DCQC (AVnet, which is unliimited for $20/month), so as a drive around just in the city, it would be great and probably more reliable (except for the limited range obviously) than a lot of the lower end used cars people have...

Wouldn't it be nice if a lot of the old "beater" cars were old EVs?
(My first car was an old hand-me-down Ford Pinto, so I would have MUCH preferred an old hand-me-down EV!! ;-) )

desiv

 

[Slow1]

Reality is that folks actually drive a lot less each day than most realize. Assumption here is starting each day fully charged - rather simple with EV but different than ICE vehicles.

It is good to recognize this fact - I found the "80% from original" line interesting though - if that indeed was considered EOL prior to the study, I wonder who decided this line? Clearly not Nissan on their capacity warranty for the Leaf eh?

 

[edatoakrun]

So if you don't decide to keep your LEAF as a lower-than-new range vehicle, you can just sell it to someone who doesn't need as much range, which this study identifies as a huge market, as have many others.

I've always thought that because of this, there is a "floor" on the price for used Leafs. (not sure what it is tho..)
At least in more urban areas...
I always figure, even with only a 30 mile range, for someone with high school kids, this would be a great little runabout...
desiv

Yes, the ceiling on used BEV/PHEV prices is currently set very low due to incentives on new BEV/PHEV sales, but we should see much higher average used prices, if not a hard floor (relative to ICEVs) show up eventually, as all these relatively-new BEVs age.

The operating cost advantage of a used BEV over a used ICEV increases as a proportion of purchase cost, with every year, and every dollar of depreciation.

A ~ten year old LEAF, with a ~ten year old OE battery, that still has more-than-sufficient range for an individual buyer (whatever that is) will probably save them a few thousand dollars a year, over the operating cost for an ICEV of comparable age.

It would be very likely that this LEAF would sell for a multiple of many years worth of the ICEV's operating costs, and so retain a much higher value than the ICEV.

 

[Slow1]

Yes, the ceiling on used BEV/PHEV prices is currently set very low due to incentives on new BEV/PHEV sales, but we should see much higher average used prices, if not a hard floor (relative to ICEVs) show up eventually, as all these relatively-new BEVs age.

The operating cost advantage of a used BEV over a used ICEV increases as a proportion of purchase cost, with every year, and every dollar of depreciation.

A ~ten year old LEAF, with a ~ten year old OE battery, that still has more-than-sufficient range for an individual buyer (whatever that is) will probably save them a few thousand dollars a year, over the operating cost for an ICEV of comparable age.

It would be very likely that this LEAF would sell for a multiple of many years worth of the ICEV's operating costs, and so retain a much higher value than the ICEV.

I agree with this - but also wonder how the availability of replacement batteries (and associated costs) will affect this. From a mechanical standpoint, as long as the battery is good the rest of the BEV should age very well I would think (meaning less maintenance required). However other parts of the car may wear no differently than the ICE - i.e. interior wear/tear and body rust/other appearance changes.

The other thing I wonder about is while the BEV may have fewer maintenance needs, what about costs? Any moving parts will eventually wear something down - so what will the cost of these types of repairs be? Seems we can fairly easily estimate ICE vehicles on the road now and predict these, but not enough information for BEVs as they have different 'wear points'. On this thought - just how long will the motor on the EV last? I've not read anything on the estimates here - how would it fail and would it be a 'rebuild' or something less?

I've long been one of those "drive a car until maintenance costs get excessive" and have close to 200K miles on my other vehicles now. I wonder if we care for the body and interior and have a replacement battery or otherwise meet our range needs, would we ever have to replace the Leaf due to "excessive" maintenance costs?

 

[2k1Toaster]

I am counting on this so that my current Leaf will become my kid's beater car when they start driving. Sure you can have a car, here is a 20 year old car with a range that is just enough to get you from home to school and back... Enjoy!

 

[edatoakrun]

I am counting on this so that my current Leaf will become my kid's beater car when they start driving... Enjoy!

I'm counting on using my 2011 LEAF to pick up the babes from their assisted-living-developments, to take them out for a hot date, starting with the early-bird-special...