COVID-19 aka 2019 (and 2020) Novel Coronavirus

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The race by local governments to one up each other is proceeding. Friday, the lowest limit I saw on group size in the Bay Area was 100+, then San Mateo chimed in with 50+, and someone else raised them with 35+ - I figured it would be 25+. I'm sure somebody will come up with that, then 10+ and 5+ before eventually arriving at the only 100% sure way to prevent person-to-person transmission, which is banning all groups of 2+.

Along that line, the library I'm typing this in will, along with all this county's other branch libraries, close at 5 p.m. today until further notice. If my local (city rather than county) library decides to follow suit, I'll be off-line until this nonsense is over. All this for a total of 7 cases (last I saw, none fatal) out of a county population of over 1.6 million.

Oh, and the Governor just "called" for all bars, night clubs, brewpubs etc. to close, but not restaurants which are apparently considered "essential", at least for now, but for the latter to reduce occupancy by 1/2.
In California, the new orders are "guidelines" that “we have the capacity to enforce if necessary," Newsom said.
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My local brewpub IS a restaurant, so I'm not sure just which side of the line that falls on.

I guess I'll have to go buy myself 72 rolls of toilet paper now (for a respiratory disease)? :? If nothing else, I can wet them down and put them in the freezer, so I can throw them at the zombies when they arrive. :roll:
 
Hopefully you will eventually realize that some things can only be averted before they occur, as they are devastating if allowed to happen unchecked. See: Italy (and that's WITH attempts to avert it.)
 
I'm well aware of that, it's the meaningless attempts to look like people are doing something that irk me. If the likelihood of person-to-person transmission is really serious, and the infection and fatality rates are really high (I still haven't seen any fatality data for the various age demographics broken down for people with and, like me, without the underlying conditions known to be a major contributory factor to the fatality rate), then the only effective method is to ban all groups of 2+, no dicking around. At least the 'social distance' spacing, coughing into your arm and hand washing have some scientific validity.

Meanwhile, we have the spectacle of travelers returning from overseas packed tightly in airport terminals, waiting for hours to be tested. Yeah, that'll lower the risk of person-to-person transmission.

As expected, I see my city library has now closed until at least April 13th.
 
Social distancing and personal containment measures like not coughing into the air, combined with lower occupancy rates, will lower transition rates inside buildings. Haven't I read something about the perfect being the enemy of the good, somewhere...?
 
LeftieBiker said:
Social distancing and personal containment measures like not coughing into the air, combined with lower occupancy rates, will lower transition rates inside buildings. Haven't I read something about the perfect being the enemy of the good, somewhere...?
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Sure, and I support all of those measures because they have a scientific basis and work. I don't support picking numbers out of the air which are unrelated to the size of the enclosed area, i.e. the space/person, or which ignore the differing risks for different groups.
 
They will come up with percentages eventually, but the problem with percentages is that the venue has to have a rated capacity, and not all do. Numbers work better in those cases.
 
GRA said:
and the infection and fatality rates are really high (I still haven't seen any fatality data for the various age demographics broken down for people with and, like me, without the underlying conditions known to be a major contributory factor to the fatality rate), then the only effective method is to ban all groups of 2+, no dicking around. At least the 'social distance' spacing, coughing into your arm and hand washing have some scientific validity.
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Safe is group of size of 1. Anything above that is a risk.
Risk is relative. How much risk is too much? Hard to say, isn't it? Too many unknowns. How lucky do you feel? You pick an answer and defend it.

The data from China has been posted here. Warning: it is contaminated by the triage effect: old and sick people just didn't get treatment in Wuhan as every bed was filled, people in the hallways waiting for a bed, people waiting in the lobby to get tested so they could get into the hallways, and people waiting outside in the rain. Many died without admission. Those admitted were younger and healthier than average.

Raw reported death rate in Wuhan was about 3.4%. Actual might have been twice as high. Seems to be near 1% everywhere else. Italy might end up higher. Triage effect.

Triage:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

Raw information:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Pretty pictures at:
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lamvo/coronavirus-death-rates-age-charts-us-china

There are hints that smoking is a strong risk factor, but China didn't keep complete records of that as far as I can tell. WHO says needs urgent study.

Do you smoke? If so, quit now.
 
GRA said:
Sure, and I support all of those measures because they have a scientific basis and work. I don't support picking numbers out of the air which are unrelated to the size of the enclosed area, i.e. the space/person, or which ignore the differing risks for different groups.
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Exact and supported numbers to control spread don't exist. Perhaps a 2 meter spacing, based on other similar virus diseases. There is no 'best practice' yet.

The 'best' is the enemy of 'good enough'.

Find good enough numbers. Lead, follow or stay out of the way.
 
Coronavirus: Italy records 368 new COVID-19 deaths - largest number in a day
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-spain-death-toll-doubles-in-a-day-as-288-victims-now-confirmed-11957987 -- this came out on Sunday.

Life at the epicenter of N.J.’s coronavirus outbreak
Holy Name CEO Maron, with 11 current cases and six patients in the ICU, says state may not realize how serious this: ‘There is absolute reason to be extremely cautious, to be very concerned’
https://www.roi-nj.com/2020/03/14/opinion/life-at-the-epicenter-of-n-j-s-coronavirus-outbreak/
“I’ve seen a bunch of headlines. Some people are out there saying: ‘They’re overplaying this. It’s not that contagious. It’s a little bit like the flu.’ It’s not.

“What we’ve seen in the patients who ultimately are positive is that things can turn very rapidly. We had a patient that we were thinking about releasing — he seemingly was recovering — and then, two days later, he was put in the ICU. The flu isn’t like that. People need to know this.”
...
“One of my employees, who is a beloved guy here, got it in the community and came in,” he said. “We had him in our ER in isolation. We were monitoring him, and the decision was: ‘He seems to be doing a little bit better. We think we’re going to discharge him home under self-isolation and monitor him from there.’ But we wanted to wait another hour or two because we were just seeing a little indication that something’s not right.

“In that two hours, he decompensated so fast. He is one of the ones in the ICU on a ventilator. He’s fighting for his life. It goes that quick.

“That’s what people aren’t seeing. The flu doesn’t do that to you. These people are going from being moderately OK to being on a vent. And the next thing that happens is they start to decompensate, and then you get into organ failure.”
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Police were trying to clear out Bourbon Street in NOLA yesterday evening. Hate to cite BFN, but it's accurate: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/claudiakoerner/new-orleans-police-bourbon-street-coronavirus-bars
 
My step-daughters law firm is closed and the employees are all on self-isolation at home. The IT guy (it's always the IT guys fault!) came back from a 3 week vacation to Spain (how does an IT guy get three weeks off??? I can barely get away for a week without them bitching about me being gone!), was fine for a few days and then started showing symptoms. Sure enough, he has COVID-19!

I'm getting my office ready for the inevitable government mandated shutdown. I reckon we're maybe 7-9 days away from it, maybe even less. We stress tested the VPN with what I expect to be the number of users who would need it an any given time and it did better than I thought it would. I think I would rather us shut down before anyone got sick - I already told my boss that I would be uncomfortable dealing with people who were already sick, and it would be my responsibility to make sure they could get their IT gear home and successfully setup.

Meanwhile, the stock market is still in the sh*tter, and I really do think the Dow with a bottom of around 15-16,000 is a real possibility now. From searching the Internet, it would appear that the range expected is somewhere between 15,000 and 17,000. I don't see anyone talking about it being any less than that or any higher either. I think I'm ready to jump back in when it gets there.

Oh, and I had to go to Walmart for something this morning, so I thought I would check out the food aisles. I was genuinely surprised to see how bad it was following a weekend of carnage. Who are these people who feel they need 3-5 times what they would normally buy??? At the most extreme, I can see maybe double what you would normally need, but anything more is just ridiculous. However, the volume of people shopping this morning was about what I would have wanted it to be.
 
mwalsh said:
Oh, and I had to go to Walmart for something this morning, so I thought I would check out the food aisles. I was genuinely surprised to see how bad it was following a weekend of carnage. Who are these people who feel they need 3-5 times what they would normally buy??? At the most extreme, I can see maybe double what you would normally need, but anything more is just ridiculous. However, the volume of people shopping this morning was about what I would have wanted it to be.
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I went to the local grocery store because we needed milk. On Friday, before the worst of the rush.
What I can't figure out is the lettuce was cleaned out.
No TP left. Sad, but not very harmful, as TP lasts a long time. No table napkins, a few rolls of paper towels... No potatoes. Plenty of broccoli.
I can almost see getting beans, rice, pasta, canned foods, frozen vegetables and frozen meals. As long as it is stuff you will eat. Might come in handy after a windstorm and power outage, or an earthquake.

But lettuce??? WTF, over.
 
Bay Area authorities place strictest order in country: ‘Shelter in place,’ only essential businesses open in 6 counties
https://www.sfchronicle.com/local-politics/article/Bay-Area-must-shelter-in-place-Only-15135014.php

Seven Bay Area Jurisdictions Order Residents to Stay Home
https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/news/Pages/press-release-03-16-20.aspx

https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/home.aspx
IMPORTANT UPDATE
Order of the health officer of the County of Santa Clara directing all individuals living in the county to shelter at their place of residence except that they may leave to provide or receive certain essential services or engage in certain essential activities and work for essential businesses and governmental services; exempting individuals experiencing homelessness from the shelter in place order but urging them to find shelter and government agencies to provide it; directing all businesses and governmental agencies to cease non-essential operations at physical locations in the county; prohibiting all non essential gatherings of any number of individuals; and ordering cessation of all non-essential travel. View the full directive.
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Directive at https://www.sccgov.org/sites/phd/DiseaseInformation/novel-coronavirus/Pages/order-health-officer-031620.aspx.

I believe all the other counties mentioned above gave essentially the same order.
 
WetEV said:
But lettuce??? WTF, over.
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Saw a picture from Whole Foods where the onions and garlic was cleaned out. It was captioned "It's Coronavirus not F*ing vampires!" LOL!

We are currently trying to get our grand-daughter out of Berkeley and as far south as possible before the NorCal lock down at midnight. Her mom and brother are driving up half-way to meet her because she's already dog tired from a week of trying to finish out papers for school and pack up her living space. Having to bail tonight and drive all the way home was absolutely the last thing she needed.
 
The produce thing is easy: people want to eat some fresh vegetables and salad before they have to (?) fear the produce carrying virus in droplets from field workers and other shoppers. (This obviously only applies to areas where the virus isn't yet widespread.) If the government wants to ease these spot shortages, they have to nail down and publicize the survival times of the virus on various surfaces and foods. The last figure I saw was " Two hours to three days." Do we need quarantine boxes for fresh produce...? How effective is washing it with mild soap or just chlorinated water? This is what happens when we try to reason with very little information.
 
I've started feeling very cold, as in pre-feverish, and I may have a mild sore throat. I have my mini-split set to 76F now, and I'm just comfortable, except for my always-cold feet. If this is Covid, it's likely from grocery shopping a few days ago. My housemate was coughing at bedtime, saying it's allergies. As my Mom used to say: "It's a great life - if you don't weaken." I'm taking steps to self-isolate, and to disinfect where I touch things outside my room, in case she isn't also infected.
 
LeftieBiker said:
I've started feeling very cold, as in pre-feverish, and I may have a mild sore throat. I have my mini-split set to 76F now, and I'm just comfortable, except for my always-cold feet. If this is Covid, it's likely from grocery shopping a few days ago. My housemate was coughing at bedtime, saying it's allergies. As my Mom used to say: "It's a great life - if you don't weaken." I'm taking steps to self-isolate, and to disinfect where I touch things outside my room, in case she isn't also infected.
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I'm not a doctor, but this is my person view.

Symptoms without a fever - likely allergies
Symptoms with a fever - something else. Possibly COVID-19 if you've had the seasonal flu shot. Though the flu shot was only about 50% effective this year, so you could still only have a cold or flu.

If you don't have a thermometer in the house, now more than any other time is the time to have one.
 
We went grocery shopping at 7AM this morning. They had plenty of everything (except eggs, as those were on sale) as they'd restocked overnight. It was good to be there early as there was nearly no one around.
 

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