12/13 Through 1/5: Why No Deliveries?!?

[DaveinOlyWA]

Not among all who reserved, but doesn't that spreadsheet itself provide a fairly accurate answer for people ordering the car? As I look at the stats tonight the range of VINs reported there is 215, and 35 people have reported VINs. That's 30% of the whole earliest-order population right there. We have to assume that there are many lurkers who have never posted, many posters who haven't bothered putting their data in yet because they know they still have a long wait, and undoubted a few posters who prefer not to provide any personal information. I'd say that it is a safe bet that more than half the people in the US who have ordered, or who will order as soon as they can, are following this board.

well i was thinking at LEAST half of Leaf reservationists were here. all other online sites have either duplicate or very limited memberships. is there a place i dont know about?

i see John Duncan is the lucky OR owner. is he here?

 

[evnow]

well i was thinking at LEAST half of Leaf reservationists were here. all other online sites have either duplicate or very limited memberships. is there a place i dont know about?

i see John Duncan is the lucky OR owner. is he here?

Out of 20K reservaions we have only 1,200 members. So about 6%.

Ofcourse I expect more early reservation holders / people who have ordered to be here - may be upto 25%.

 

[garygid]

1200 of 20000 (12 of 200) would be only 6%, right?

I know, you were just testing us.

 

[evnow]

1200 of 20000 (12 of 200) would be only 6%, right?

I know, you were just testing us.

Early morning math is injudicious

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

well i think this site is normal in that usually unregistered members outnumber the registered members by probably 3 or 4 to 1.

this ratio drops as the site matures. i imagine as people actually take delivery and have questions, more will come on board.

Priuschat started the same way. now the "lurkers" are probably less than 30-40% or so but they have also been around much longer and have product.

i see a huge spike in membership when deliveries pick up

 

[garygid]

At 1275 members now, we are up from passing 1000 not long ago.

 

[evnow]

well i think this site is normal in that usually unregistered members outnumber the registered members by probably 3 or 4 to 1.

Let me check with Mike on that ...

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

well i think this site is normal in that usually unregistered members outnumber the registered members by probably 3 or 4 to 1.

Let me check with Mike on that ...

with unregistered people would unique IP addys cover that?

 

[garygid]

Maybe the Board Index page could report the number of members "logged in", and also the number of different "other-IPs" that were accessing the forum in the last 30-minute period?

 

[planet4ever]

As I look at the stats tonight the range of VINs reported there is 215, and 35 people have reported VINs. That's 30% of the whole earliest-order population right there.

Huh? Somebody's math isn't too good. And to think I used to be a math teacher and then a programmer. Actually, the error was in my typing. The range of VINs was really 115, so the 30% was correct.

 

[evnow]

well i think this site is normal in that usually unregistered members outnumber the registered members by probably 3 or 4 to 1.

Let me check with Mike on that ...

Mike says more than 10,000 unique users in the last month. So 8 times the registered users. Ofcourse not all would be reservation holders, though my guess is a vast majority of them are.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

ya, i know 2 co-workers that browse here frequently. mostly because they will say something to me that is a result of something i posted here.

i asked one why he does not register. he said he does not sign up for anything. something about getting spam. i offered to train on the use of the "delete" button but he declined. he is not on the Leaf list, but is thinking hard about it. he was one the guys who really thought i was crazy when i bought my 2004 Prius waaay back when. after the spikes in gas prices, he has pretty much done a complete 180 on his way of thinking

 

[hill]

well i was thinking at LEAST half of Leaf reservationists were here. all other online sites have either duplicate or very limited memberships. is there a place i dont know about?

i see John Duncan is the lucky OR owner. is he here?

Out of 20K reservaions we have only 1,200 members. So about 6%.

Ofcourse I expect more early reservation holders / people who have ordered to be here - may be upto 25%.

Agreed evnow . . . I don't know for certain . . . but I think the 6% appears skewed for another reason. Obviously the Lion's share of the 20,000 aren't accounted for on the spread sheet. But when you factor how many Leafs were delivered on 12/11 ... or 12/13 the spreadsheet is 100% accurate. The spreadsheet missed the OR delivery, and it missed the 1st AZ delivery ... thus the spreadsheet was at 0% accuracy for those hits. That's an accuracy average of 1/2 ... or 50% accurate. Ultimately, if any deliveries take place during 12/13 through 1/5 - the list will flesh out due to the simple fact more data creates greater accuracy. If any deliveries occure in the 12/13 - 1/5 window, we may see those Leafs going to rental agencies ... utility companies, etc. Those sorts won't be posting here. I haven't found any of them bragging about when THEIR deliveries are landing.

 

[ritikatootie]

I agree with Hill, whenever there is a discussion about the number of LEAF reservationists and orderers we rarely take into account the number of fleet vehicles that Nissan is selling. IIRC, Nissan has announced a few times that 60% of reserved LEAFs are for fleets. There was an article a few months ago in the SD Union Tribune that local fleet sales were about this size.

So, I think when we discuss the number of individuals who are purchasing LEAFs and the number of them who have joined this forum we would be more accurate in saying that the 1,200 members here represents about 16% of the 8,000 individual buyers. (the other 12,000 cars have been ordered for fleets)

 

[leaf2010]

My dashboard just changed from a feb-2010 delivery to mar-2010 (as of today). Has anyone else seen a shift in delivery date?

 

[mwalsh]

My dashboard just changed from a feb-2010 delivery to mar-2010 (as of today). Has anyone else seen a shift in delivery date?

Yes, those of us with January 6, 2011 are now showing January 11, 2011. For how long before it changes again....I don't know.

 

[hill]

The process of getting bumped really stinks ... and ESPECIALLY if bump backs are in large part due to fleet sale preferences? That REALLY stinks. Where is the rational in that? I remember when fleet sales of the Prius were hot & heavy during high gas prices:

Our local transit depot could NOT get any more from toyota, until PERSONAL demand units were met. It just seems to make better PR.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

2010 Prius fleet sales were suspended untill EVERYONE on the pre order list received theirs

 

[evnow]

IIRC, Nissan has announced a few times that 60% of reserved LEAFs are for fleets. There was an article a few months ago in the SD Union Tribune that local fleet sales were about this size.

Link ? I've not seen any references to this in the US - yes, there were some in Japan, which I think you are referring to.