RegGuheert wrote:From Wards Auto's report from CES a year ago:At $100/kWh, 60-kWh batteries are very comparable in cost with the powertrain in an ICE. Further cost reductions below that point will be just gravy, but will not be required for rapid adoption.John McElroy of Wards Auto wrote:Let’s start with the EV batteries. Back in 2010 the Department of Energy set a cost goal of $125 per kilowatt hour for an EV battery pack by 2022, because that would make electric-propulsion systems equal to the cost of an internal-combustion engine. In addition to individual cells, the battery pack also includes the supporting structure, cooling mechanisms, and battery management systems.
At the time no one saw a clear path of how to get to that cost. But at CES, several EV experts told me the DOE’s number is turning out to be a very conservative goal. They assured me those costs will be under $100 before 2020, and not long after that they will go down to about $80 per kilowatt hour.
That's a completely different story than fuel cells, which no one has yet learned how to mass produce.
Yes, fuel cell mass production will be the key to their costs making the next major step down, which is exactly where the companies which are producing FCEVs are devoting much of their R&D - Toyota certainly is. Other R&D areas are reducing or eliminating Pt and increasing both power density and longevity. So far, every succeeding generation of FCEVs deployed has seen these last three areas improve by 50% or more (about 100% for power density) compared to the immediately preceding generation. Those curves will start to flatten soon, if they haven't already.