Hydrogen and FCEVs discussion thread

Couple of GCR articles on concept cars at LA:

Volkswagen Golf SportWagen HyMotion: Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Concept At LA Auto Show

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http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095612_volkswagen-golf-sportwagen-hymotion-hydrogen-fuel-cell-concept-at-la-auto-show" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Volkswagen Passat HyMotion Hydrogen Fuel-Cell Vehicle Prototype: Brief Drive

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http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1095647_volkswagen-passat-hymotion-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicle-prototype-brief-drive" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Personally, while designing a dedicated BEV/FCEV or other AFV undoubtedly gets you the last few % of efficiency, I suspect VW's approach of designing an architecture that can accept a wide variety of power trains without significantly encroaching on passenger or cargo space will be more commercially viable. I'm really impressed with how easily they've been able to put widely disparate power plants into the MQB chassis.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

They spend all that time and money to build stations and hope people buy the cars? That's a pretty high stakes gamble.

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With taxpayer money funding most of the H2 vehicle refueling market, it's not much of a gamble for auto makers.

TonyWilliams said:

DNAinaGoodWay said:

They spend all that time and money to build stations and hope people buy the cars? That's a pretty high stakes gamble.

Click to expand...

With taxpayer money funding most of the H2 vehicle refueling market, it's not much of a gamble for auto makers.

Click to expand...

In CA? I haven't seen that here yet, but it won't surprise me. It's taking a long time to put up publicaly funded QC here. I can't see them getting H2 stations going any faster. OEMs and private H2 will have to take the risk if they want to jump start a market.

What level of installation density would it take to start up a viable H2 market?

How far would an average FCEV driver be willing to travel to refuel? Considering distance and possible urban traffic congestion, maybe a station could serve a 30-40 mile radius? Maybe less? 10-20 miles? Free fuel would offset some of the inconvenience.

The tether to refueling opportunities would be much stronger than with BEVs, trip planning will be much more important.

Makes starting up a BEV market look easy.

It would be interesting if Hydro-Quebec used their excess generation (that they can't sell south, blocked by the Northern Pass stoppage) to flood Canada with QC, as well as produce clean H2, delivered by FCEV trucks.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

TonyWilliams said:

DNAinaGoodWay said:

They spend all that time and money to build stations and hope people buy the cars? That's a pretty high stakes gamble.

Click to expand...

With taxpayer money funding most of the H2 vehicle refueling market, it's not much of a gamble for auto makers.

Click to expand...

In CA? I haven't seen that here yet, but it won't surprise me. It's taking a long time to put up publicaly funded QC here. I can't see them getting H2 stations going any faster. OEMs and private H2 will have to take the risk if they want to jump start a market.

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We will get 68 to 100 hydrogen stations here in California over the next 5 years or so.

The auto makers made hydrogen cars exempt from sales outside of California, so that they can meet ALL their ZEV mandates with hydrogen cars sold only in California.

That's the single biggest incentive to drop EV's for companies like Toyota.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

What level of installation density would it take to start up a viable H2 market?

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If by "viable" you mean "able to pay its own way", then I suspect we need to look to fleets to find places where H2 has any possibility to be viable. Fleets benefit by having the refueling at "home" in the same way as we BEV owners do. But even with home refueling, the $15,000 (or likely much more for high-mileage fleet vehicles) of extra infrastructure costs for each passenger-vehicle-sized automobile when renewable energy is used to produce the H2 will mean that even fleets will need to use H2 derived from fossil fuels in order to have a chance to be economically viable.

For now, FCVs are the domain of the following groups:
- Governments doing research
- Governments deploying without an eye toward economic viability
- Corporate fleet owners who operate indoor fleets which are not well served by BEVs
- Corporate fleet owners testing FCVs in their outdoor fleets for experimentation and/or "green-washing" their images

So, for the next 5 years anyway, Toyota and any other OEM jumping in, will be able to meet all ZEV mandates by fleet sales in CA? Will the 68-100 publicly funded CA stations be situated to serve those fleets, but also open to the public? Still seems short term and limited. With governments and corporations looking for the best bang for the buck, a more affordable 150-200 mile BEV should be able to out compete FCV. Same with the general public. Whatever amount of money they spend on this experiment, BEVs will still have the advantage. Assuming those affordable, longer range BEVs arrive.

By "viable" I was thinking more of a scenario where there is enough H2 infrastructure in place such that someone shopping for a new car would consider a FCV alongside a BEV or an ICE. 100 stations in a state the size of CA wont be enough to make that happen on a large scale. It would still be limited to fleets and people with just the right situation. The LEAF only works for me because my situation is perfect for it. But we still keep an ICE for long range travel. If and when a FCV is available to me, it's not going to be an option if refueling is scarce and inconvenient, even if it's affordable. I might as well keep the ICE. Even a BEV would make more sense for long trips as fuel is at least available everywhere.
But just for everyday, local use, I wouldn't want to drive more than 15-20 miles to refuel, even if the H2 was free.

So, how many H2 stations would it take? Way more than anyone is willing to pay for? If and when affordable 150-200 mile range BEVs get here, I don't see how H2 has a chance beyond a limited fleet market.

DNAinaGoodWay said:

So, for the next 5 years anyway, Toyota and any other OEM jumping in, will be able to meet all ZEV mandates by fleet sales in CA?

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No. The government of CA is subsidizing both the refueling stations and the FCV cars to make it accessible to everyday people. The needs of fleets are a different animal, although I suspect they will get their own subsidies.

AndyH said:

FOURTH ATTEMPT: Can anyone at all show me documentation that even a single dollar of CA's alt-fuel support to H2 resulted in ANY loss of BEV support? Can ANYONE show us ANYTHING that supports Zythryn's boondoggle fear? Thanks in advance.

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How soon will we have that electric highway completed along I5?

How soon will there be more state run H2 stations than L3? Or are we there already?

As is said.... proof is in the pudding. So where is it?

RegGuheert said:

DNAinaGoodWay said:

So, for the next 5 years anyway, Toyota and any other OEM jumping in, will be able to meet all ZEV mandates by fleet sales in CA?

Click to expand...

No. The government of CA is subsidizing both the refueling stations and the FCV cars to make it accessible to everyday people. The needs of fleets are a different animal, although I suspect they will get their own subsidies.

Click to expand...

But, fleet sales will count toward the ZEV quota? Is the CA fleet market alone enough to be in compliance? With only 100 stations, and such a high MSRP, public sales will be limited.

Of the 100 CA stations, will they be concentrated in high population density areas? Is there a map of proposed locations yet?

smkettner said:

How soon will we have that electric highway completed along I5?

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Hah, good point. Though I'd prefer QC along 101 between Los Angeles and the Bay Area and 99 rather than I5 - though I5 from the Bay Area to Oregon makes sense. There are huge gaps between northern and southern California with non-Tesla QC infrastructure. San Luis Obispo, for example, is not too far from either the Bay Area or Los Angeles (<200 miles - on the very edge of what's practical with a LEAF, could be done with less than 3 QCs, but next gen EVs could easily do this with a single QC), but it's not possible without slow L2 charging and even L2 charging is sparse!

FYI guys and gals... Maybe my crystal ball isn't as far off as some might like to hope... I'm truly sorry this thread exists but understand as I'm in a similar boat.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=12&t=18593

DNAinaGoodWay said:

RegGuheert said:

DNAinaGoodWay said:

So, for the next 5 years anyway, Toyota and any other OEM jumping in, will be able to meet all ZEV mandates by fleet sales in CA?

Click to expand...

No. The government of CA is subsidizing both the refueling stations and the FCV cars to make it accessible to everyday people. The needs of fleets are a different animal, although I suspect they will get their own subsidies.

Click to expand...

But, fleet sales will count toward the ZEV quota? Is the CA fleet market alone enough to be in compliance? With only 100 stations, and such a high MSRP, public sales will be limited.

Of the 100 CA stations, will they be concentrated in high population density areas? Is there a map of proposed locations yet?

Click to expand...

Of course there is, and it and all the details of the proposed rollout have been described repeatedly upthread, with links. Assuming you've missed them all, this one will get you started, and has links to more detailed info: http://www.fuelcellpartnership.org/carsandbuses/caroadmap" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

drees said:

smkettner said:

How soon will we have that electric highway completed along I5?

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Hah, good point. Though I'd prefer QC along 101 between Los Angeles and the Bay Area and 99 rather than I5 - though I5 from the Bay Area to Oregon makes sense. There are huge gaps between northern and southern California with non-Tesla QC infrastructure. San Luis Obispo, for example, is not too far from either the Bay Area or Los Angeles (<200 miles - on the very edge of what's practical with a LEAF, could be done with less than 3 QCs, but next gen EVs could easily do this with a single QC), but it's not possible without slow L2 charging and even L2 charging is sparse!

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At this point, with sub-100 mile freeway ranges I see little reason to spend money on completing I-5 (or even 101) as an electric highway in California. What makes reasonable sense in Oregon, which is only 285 miles from Ashland to Portland along I-5, with msot of the state's population spread along the Willamette Valley, makes far less sense in California, where it's 797 miles from Ashland to San Diego and much of that is in the sparsely populated Central Valley. Until there are affordable BEVs with at least two hours of range at freeway speeds, it makes far more sense to concentrate on building regional QC networks, because most people aren't going to be willing to waste the time en route to do more than a single QC; they'll take a more practical vehicle instead. Putting QCs between Sacramento and Lake Tahoe would be far more valuable now than putting two or three between Vacaville and Redding.

GRA said:

DNAinaGoodWay said:

But, fleet sales will count toward the ZEV quota? Is the CA fleet market alone enough to be in compliance? With only 100 stations, and such a high MSRP, public sales will be limited.

Of the 100 CA stations, will they be concentrated in high population density areas? Is there a map of proposed locations yet?

Click to expand...

Of course there is, and it and all the details of the proposed rollout have been described repeatedly upthread, with links. Assuming you've missed them all, this one will get you started, and has links to more detailed info: http://www.fuelcellpartnership.org/carsandbuses/caroadmap" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Good, thanks. Haven't taken the time to read through the entire thread, although what I've sampled is certainly passionate. So, 100 stations by 2021 in CA? It's a beginning. If costs come down sufficiently, the 2030's - 2040's could be a good growth period for FCVs. I might live long enough to see some of that, but more likely I'll have to content myself with next gen BEVs here. I can't see the H2 network being extensive enough in my area, in my remaining lifetime.

GRA said:

http://www.fuelcellpartnership.org/carsandbuses/caroadmap

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This shows growth of about ten stations per year. Doesn't seem like much. A common comparison in this thread is to the early days of ICE and how gas pumps and filling stations took time to expand. I haven't found a good source yet, but I suspect that those early gas pumps were much less expensive compared to H2 stations and so proliferation occured at a much faster rate. Probably less regulation in those days as well. So, reinforces my feeling that I won't be seeing a usable H2 infrastructure anytime soon.

You can still buy them, only $1000 or two for some of them.

Here's an old paper from 1957, but interesting:

http://faculty.quinnipiac.edu/charm/CHARM%20proceedings/CHARM%20article%20archive%20pdf%20format/Volume%206%201993/455%20beckman%20jones.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

DNAinaGoodWay said:

GRA said:

http://www.fuelcellpartnership.org/carsandbuses/caroadmap

Click to expand...

This shows growth of about ten stations per year. Doesn't seem like much. A common comparison in this thread is to the early days of ICE and how gas pumps and filling stations took time to expand. I haven't found a good source yet, but I suspect that those early gas pumps were much less expensive compared to H2 stations and so proliferation occured at a much faster rate. Probably less regulation in those days as well. So, reinforces my feeling that I won't be seeing a usable H2 infrastructure anytime soon.

Click to expand...

Information on fuel station prices is in the thread already. One of our members is actively involved in CNG fuel stations as well - and it's about the same expense to build a new gasoline, CNG, and H2 fueling station today.

Don't even try to compare an 1890s fuel station to H2 today....