Tempted to buy instead of lease because of current promotion

Here is what I'm looking at:

2015 Nissan SV
Pearl White Paint
Premium Package
Splash Guards
Cargo Cover
($35,405 MSRP, $33,362 Invoice)


I've negotiated this down to $32,300 including destination so I can get it for $1,062 under invoice.

Additionally my income is enough to qualify for the entire $7,500 federal rebate. I live in Ohio so there are no state sponsored rebates.

Nissan is offering 0% for 72mo + $3,500 off with NMAC financing which I'll qualify for. I verified with the dealer that I can apply both these promotions to the price I've negotiated.

With the current promotions plus the discount I've negotiated is this a somewhat safe proposition? I intend to keep the car somewhere in the 3 to 5 year range and I am a pretty consistent 12k/year driver. I would be a reasonable candidate for the 36mo lease, but I've honestly never leased a car before and I feel like I'll come out behind on the deal somehow.

Am I crazy? Is lease the only way to go with these cars? My biggest concern is another EV hitting the market with a 200 mile range and obliterating the resale value of my leaf right around the time I want to upgrade.

Any opinions?

So $21k for a new Leaf.

If you keep it for 5 years, 60,000 miles and sell it for $10k at the end you are paying an average of $0.05 a mile for the car and another $0.04 a mile for electricity. Toss in another $0.02 a mile for tires and maintenance for a total of $0.11 a mile. It is hard to beat that (a used 2012 or 2013 Leaf might save you a few thousand).

The better question is not resale value, but whether you will be really bummed if in 2 years they come out with a longer range Leaf and you will be kicking yourself that you have a wait a few years for a new shiny toy. There is no guarantee that incentives will still be there for you then as well.

Personally I buy my cars with the intention of driving them into the ground, and I am mystified why someone would buy a car with the intention of selling it in a mere 3-5 years. :roll:

Moof said:

... you will be kicking yourself that you have a wait a few years for a new shiny toy. ...

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In 2013 according to Andy Palmer you only have to wait a little bit. http://www.plugincars.com/nissan-andy-palmer-infiniti-ev-was-delayed-wait-new-tech-127753.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“There are some interesting advances in electric technology we hadn’t anticipated when we showed the LE, which, by delaying a little bit, we can incorporate into the car,” said Palmer.

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DanCar said:

Moof said:

... you will be kicking yourself that you have a wait a few years for a new shiny toy. ...

Click to expand...

In 2013 according to Andy Palmer you only have to wait a little bit. http://www.plugincars.com/nissan-andy-palmer-infiniti-ev-was-delayed-wait-new-tech-127753.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“There are some interesting advances in electric technology we hadn’t anticipated when we showed the LE, which, by delaying a little bit, we can incorporate into the car,” said Palmer.

Click to expand...

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And.....where is Andy Palmer now???

If the battery proves to hold up and you can get by on 50 mile range without too much trouble I could see keeping LEAF a bit longer and owning it.
You take a risk and save money if it pans out. But I don't see current LEAF as being the classic keep the car 10+ years and save money vehicle.
I would tend to lease it. Be sure they use your negotiated price before incentives for the capital cost. Probably not a huge deal either way.

I think it still depends on where you live, despite the "lizard" battery pack the car should now have. If you're in a cool climate it makes some sense. If you live where it gets hot a lot, why be an unpaid (or worse, paying) beta tester for the new battery?

the technology is improving at a rapid pace, buying locks you into today's technology while leasing provides a defined cost and exit point to allow to move out of a deal easier

Several posters here have made good arguments for leasing. Another argument is that if you have good investments you're better off not tying up all that money in a car - any car.

On the other hand, a lot of the early adopter LEAFers are rightly gun-shy after their experience with rapid battery degradation with the 2011 and 2012 LEAFs under extreme heat conditions. Naturally if that is what you expect to happen with a 2015 LEAF a lease is a better choice. However, experience to date with 2013 and later LEAFs suggests that the current batteries are much better - no guarantees of course, but to date we haven't had reports of people losing multiple battery capacity bars on the 2013s and very few reports of even one bar dropping. By comparison, after 1 1/2 years of the 2011 LEAF we had a plethora of reports of battery capacity loss, so much so that members of this forum did an extensive study on 2011 battery loss that can be found on the wiki.

Do expect that the battery will degrade, and do take into account the range penalty in extreme cold weather. Since you aren't looking at the S trim level you will have the heat pump, not the energy-intensive resistance heater, but still factor in 30% or more loss in range on days of 0 degrees F. If the LEAF still provides the range you expect to need over the next 5 years then I'd say go for it.

Yes, we may get a longer range affordable EV in the near future, but the date keeps getting pushed out. A couple years ago the rumor was for the 2015 model year. Some have heard 2016 ... but the latest rumors are a 2017 model year LEAF released in calendar 2016. There are no guarantees this will happen - the alleged Telsa model 3 (affordable EV with longer range) has had the date pushed out so many times no one knows if it will ever arrive at all - and Tesla has a history of extensive delays in product release. All other competitive EVs that have come out in the last year have range similar to the LEAF (and most of them are available only in California and a few other coastal states).

There are also disadvantages to leasing. You can end up paying high fees when you turn the car in due to excess wear. You are limited regarding any additions or modifications you want to make to the car. And if your situation changes and you need to sell you'll find that it is very hard to get anyone to take over the lease and buying mid-lease can be very expensive.

For me the math worked out better to buy than lease. I actually bought 2. We have light driving needs and intend to keep the cars 'forever'. If the pack degrades to the point where we need a new one we'll see what's on the market at that time and make a decision. New batteries will be cheaper and longer range. New cars might have new features. Even if we junk the old cars, we'll still have saved so much vs ICE it won't matter. Once the tax credits have expired, I expect used Leafs to hold their value pretty well compared to what you paid for it after tax credits. Since buyers of the new Leafs (and other EVs) won't have tax credits available, the used market will stop being depressed by the amount of the tax credits. Nissan, Ford, Tesla, Chevy, and Toyota are on pace to hit 200,000 manufactured in the next several years, which triggers the phased expiration of the credits. My guess is that in 5 years the credits are gone. Probably credits in many states too.

^^^ Good points by cgaydos.

I too am worried about depreciation resulting from newer technology, but ultimately I decided to go ahead and buy because... (a) I'm going to drive less than 12k/yr resulting in slightly higher resale, (b) I expect the tax breaks to phase out (especially here in GA) protecting the resale value somewhat, (c) I want the freedom to make modifications, (d) I won't mind if the range decreases a little over time, and (e) the 0% & $3500 from NMAC was too good to pass up.

I've got my fingers crossed on the resale value, but even if it's lower than projected, I still got a REALLY nice car that doesn't need a drop of oil or gas for a fantastic price. I completely agree with all the arguments for leasing though.

I am a Costco member and I used their website to save another $2000.00

http://www.costcoauto.com/enterzipcode.aspx?gotourl=%2fdefault.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

alreadyBenBrott said:

I live in Ohio so there are no state sponsored rebates.

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Lasareath said:

I am a Costco member and I used their website to save another $2000.00

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:shock: :shock:

your dealer must really be soaking folks...

I got $500 off...

the expectation of newer cars being so much better has already been factored into the lease rate in the form of a very low residual value at the end of the lease. From what I've been told, Nissan is very skilled at getting that residual value dead on. All you really save by leasing is not having to pay sales tax and interest on that residual amount. your financing is no interest, how about sales tax? Washington exempts that on EVs. Factoring all of that in, I bought mine too.

mikesus said:

your dealer must really be soaking folks...

I got $500 off...

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Who's dealer, the OP's? What do you mean by soaking? $500 off MSRP or invoice? Important details.

Lasareath said:

I am a Costco member and I used their website to save another $2000.00

http://www.costcoauto.com/enterzipcode.aspx?gotourl=%2fdefault.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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I have a Costco membership too but I was only quoted $600 under invoice and I would have had to purchase from a dealer located a 2.5hr drive away outside of the Leaf's range.

I shopped the $600 under invoice around my city and I was able to get an offer $1062 under invoice to bring my business to their dealership instead. Are you sure costco in your city was offering $2000 under invoice or was it $2000 off MSRP?

FYI the costco promo also includes 3years of free maintenance but that has almost $0 value on the Nissan Leaf as there is hardly a maintenance schedule.

alreadyBenBrott said:

Lasareath said:

I am a Costco member and I used their website to save another $2000.00

http://www.costcoauto.com/enterzipcode.aspx?gotourl=%2fdefault.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Click to expand...

I have a Costco membership too but I was only quoted $600 under invoice and I would have had to purchase from a dealer located a 2.5hr drive away outside of the Leaf's range.

I shopped the $600 under invoice around my city and I was able to get an offer $1062 under invoice to bring my business to their dealership instead. Are you sure costco in your city was offering $2000 under invoice or was it $2000 off MSRP?

FYI the costco promo also includes 3years of free maintenance but that has almost $0 value on the Nissan Leaf as there is hardly a maintenance schedule.

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Where in Ohio are you trying to get your Leaf? The dealer I worked with near Akron was selling roughly $2500 under sticker, which is pulling some from their hold-back. The price discount + Fed tax credit was approximately $10K under sticker. Pricing was a little ambiguous because this is a Lease but net was ~$24K on a ~34K sticker. Again, there were no State incentives in Ohio. I sensed they were more interested in discounting if they didn't have to work a trade with another dealer outside the immediate area. Fairly obvious that moving a Leaf between major cities is relatively time consuming and expensive for a dealer.

I paid $1500 below invoice for a 15 S w/QC. Then added a $700 dealer fee onto that. A bunch of dealers in ATL were around that price (3 within $100, 7 within a few hundred).

heathATL said:

mikesus said:

your dealer must really be soaking folks...

I got $500 off...

Click to expand...

Who's dealer, the OP's? What do you mean by soaking? $500 off MSRP or invoice? Important details.

Click to expand...

If they have enough room to give $2k off for costco, the price was too high to begin with... The $500 was after my best deal so we were no where near invoice...

alreadyBenBrott said:

Here is what I'm looking at:

Am I crazy? Is lease the only way to go with these cars? My biggest concern is another EV hitting the market with a 200 mile range and obliterating the resale value of my leaf right around the time I want to upgrade.

Any opinions?

Click to expand...

I think this is a great idea. But I may be biased because you explained exactly my situation 6 months ago. And now I'm a happy owner of a 2014 SL. I dont like (personal) leasing, as I really dont like the idea of limiting miles or having to return in a specific condition. I like the flexibility to sell it in 1 year or 10 years and am willing to pay extra for that.

I dont see any magical new battery technology coming ou tin the next 5 years. So even if a 200mile range electric car came out, it would be more expensive than today's leaf. But yeah, always a risk for a (still) early adapter.

my 2 c