Nissan: We Can Match Bolt

I concur that getting a lower cost BEV is critical to getting mass adoption. And I agree Nissan should do both - beat the Bolt to maintain their tech leadership position and provide an affordable option for those who don't need the range. If they do both well, they should re-establish themselves as the volume leader too.

Sounds like you got an awesome deal on your Leaf. That should be one benefit of longer range BEVs coming out. The shorter range ones will get discounted and more people will be able to get into them and realize how wonderfully economical they are. I seriously thought about the Smart ED because after incentives, it was a very inexpensive car. But I'm glad I went with the Leaf as we have gotten much more use out of it since there are 3 of us the family.

The next few years hold lots of potential.

smkettner said:

DarthPuppy said:

Range anxiety is a big factor in why BEVs haven't sold more.

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Not anxiety so much as many of us need more ACTUAL range.

When you need to go 50 miles and the GOM is down to 10 there is no anxiety except that you cannot go at all.

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True that is also part of it. I apologize for leaving that part out of the sentence. I'm in that bucket myself. When I bought the Leaf as my commuter car, I had a much shorter commute than I do now. So the Leaf no longer is my commuter car. I want to replace my commuter ICEV with a BEV, but need 150+ mile range for that too work. So I'm very excited about the Bolt and Leaf 2 announcements that they will have 200+ mile range soon. I think I can get my ICEV to last until they are available.

If not, then I would have to settle for one of the PHEV as best option. I would probably go with an i3 or a C350e if I were to replace one now. Or if the infrastructure builds out fast enough, I might be tempted by a Mirai. But as noted in another thread, they probably won't get that done before BEVs hit the market that meet my needs. And with home solar panels, I have a vested interest in BEVs. :mrgreen:

DarthPuppy said:

Sounds like you got an awesome deal on your Leaf. That should be one benefit of longer range BEVs coming out. The shorter range ones will get discounted and more people will be able to get into them and realize how wonderfully economical they are. I seriously thought about the Smart ED because after incentives, it was a very inexpensive car. But I'm glad I went with the Leaf as we have gotten much more use out of it since there are 3 of us the family.

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Just a confluence of factors... end of the year, $5000 NMAC cash back, $2 gas, 2016 about to come out with more range. I bet you could get a 2015 S cheaper than that now if you could still find one on a lot.

I find it odd, the silence from Nissan. Chevy is making sure the Bolt is in the news and drumming up interest in the car. Tesla just showed their model 3 & generating enough hype that over 130,000 people ponied up a grand to reserve their spot. Brilliant move as that gives them a nice chunk of change for operating capital and disinclines buyers from considering the Bolt or Gen 2 Leaf when they do come out.

Lots of others are talking about more range and Nissan is............ not saying much.

If they are trying to keep it under wraps to avoid losing sales of their current model, too late as people know it is already coming at some point and the Bolt and Tesla are already stealing people's attention. Nissan and Chevy just lost a substantial chunk of 130,000 BEV buyers.

As far as range goes, sure our 2015 covers our needs the majority of the times except for when:
We have a power outage and I can't charge at home or close to home. With a 200 mile range she could do up to 4 round trip commutes before we'd have to find a functioning charger. We lose power enough that we have a generator.
One of us forgets to plug the car in overnight. With longer range my wife can still do her commute to Seattle and back even if we space out
We have a slightly longer trip but we don't want to drive the gas-hog pickup.
The combination of cold temperatures, bad Seattle traffic, & loss of battery range could push even a single commute out of my wife's comfort zone. Our 2011 with the inefficient heater was particularly bad for this at the end of its lease.
Unforeseen trips my wife has to make after work on her way home can also add to the problem.

The car has worked well enough for us that we are putting about 17,000 miles per year on the car but one of the above has happened enough that we would be in the market for a 200 mile car. Then I could comfortably charge to 80% instead of the 100% we do every time due to the above. And we'd have a greater margin for the car still being useful after even 20% battery degradation.

What I see for us is buying a used 2013 or later Leaf with the better heater when our lease is up in October as they are getting dirt cheap. Drive that until the 200 mile BEVs come out and then I can then run the older Leaf into the ground as a commuter (mine is only 16 miles) and as an errand runner and keep some of the miles off the new BEV.

Here you go. A 2015 S with Quick Charge option. It was never totaled and it has 35 miles on it. It's eligible for up to $7,500 tax credit. Final cost $12,500 plus tax if you have enough taxable income to generate at least $7,500 in tax.
http://www.wayzatanissan.com/used/Nissan/2015-Nissan-Leaf-f2f3e5450a0e0a1704ec476aa06dea68.htm

Well maybe, hopefully Nissan is being smart.

Instead of just making an announcement about something coming they'll announce the Leaf 2 when it's ready and shipping to dealers.

Or they realized how much they lost on Leaf 1 and stopped all development, especially with the tax credits expiration looming.

Valdemar said:

Or they realized how much they lost on Leaf 1 and stopped all development, especially with the tax credits expiration looming.

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oh yeah, like that is enough to satisfy future CAFE/Fed fleet requirements. Well if it was that much of a bomb, thinking credits "built up" might not last very long

Valdemar said:

Or they realized how much they lost on Leaf 1 and stopped all development, especially with the tax credits expiration looming.

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I wouldn't say stopped, I do believe slow as can be.

30 kWh packs in 2016
60 kWh packs in 2019 when they are outclassed by higher capacity packs from Tesla and Chevy (watch the bolt get pack upgrades to try and keep up with tesla)

So you'll have a hierarchy of pack capacity

Tesla = tier 1
Chevy = tier 2
Nissan = tier 3

Others like Kia might bounce from tier 3 to 2 and back to 3 as they outclass the Leaf with upgrades for the Soul EV but don't quite keep up with Chevy who doesn't quite keep up with Tesla.

Nissan is no Tesla and it is not like Leaf 2 will magically sell like hotcakes even if they double the range. I'm sure someone at Nissan has already realized that, so they may just sell Leaf 1 for many more years with some minor changes here and there competing at the price point, they might even be able to squeeze 40kWh pack in it. They will sell just as many (or few) to satisfy CAFE requirements. It seems as a much safer plan than invest in a new model and fail (again).

dhanson865 said:

Tesla = tier 1
Chevy = tier 2
Nissan = tier 3

Others like Kia might bounce from tier 3 to 2 and back to 3 as they outclass the Leaf with upgrades for the Soul EV but don't quite keep up with Chevy who doesn't quite keep up with Tesla.

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Oh yes - why would someone like Ghosn care about his legacy, right ?!

dhanson865 said:

Valdemar said:

Or they realized how much they lost on Leaf 1 and stopped all development, especially with the tax credits expiration looming.

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I wouldn't say stopped, I do believe slow as can be.

30 kWh packs in 2016
60 kWh packs in 2019 when they are outclassed by higher capacity packs from Tesla and Chevy (watch the bolt get pack upgrades to try and keep up with tesla)

So you'll have a hierarchy of pack capacity

Tesla = tier 1
Chevy = tier 2
Nissan = tier 3

Others like Kia might bounce from tier 3 to 2 and back to 3 as they outclass the Leaf with upgrades for the Soul EV but don't quite keep up with Chevy who doesn't quite keep up with Tesla.

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Although anything can happen I would bet against the bolt getting any form of significant upgrade. That car just can't compete with Tesla on any front other than it has more cargo space and it's an EV that goes about as far for the same cost.

If there's going to be a pack upgrade from Chevy I'd expect to see it in a new mid size sedan and/or CUV. The bolt screams compact B segment to me. The Model 3 is clearly a segment class up on it even if it still has the interior volume to put it in the compact class.

Although I can't quote it now I do remember reading that the Nissan concept with the 60 kWh battery from a few months ago had a pack with a physical size very close to that of the current leaf so we should see 60kWh available on launch. Nissan is the only one of these companies that currently sells a car in the same class that the second gen leaf should slot into (spark ev being a sub compact vs the compact bolt). They have the most to lose in current sales by giving a lot of lead time on the next gen car. I totally understand if they have decided to keep the car hidden till less than a year before launch.

Tesla did an amazing job keeping the model 3 details hidden. Maybe Nissan has learned something from them. I'm hoping they have a higher performance sportier Leaf 2 in the works. 60kwh is a given.
Style and performance is not guaranteed.

I'm guessing late this year we might see some leaks or a reveal. Hopefully.

Meanwhile I have a reservation for a model 3 !

And I'm enjoying the performance in my i3.

Go ev! Go Tesla , go Nissan.

kmp647 said:

Tesla did an amazing job keeping the model 3 details hidden. Maybe Nissan has learned something from them. I'm hoping they have a higher performance sportier Leaf 2 in the works. 60kwh is a given.
Style and performance is not guaranteed.

I'm guessing late this year we might see some leaks or a reveal. Hopefully.

Meanwhile I have a reservation for a model 3 !

And I'm enjoying the performance in my i3.

Go ev! Go Tesla , go Nissan.

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I think a big part of that is that they aren't a traditional automaker and doing things in a predictable way. I did see one spy shot cell phone pics of a camo car that looks a lot like what the 3 looks like now.

All the traditional automakers have sites set up that everyone knows about and photographers stalk to get spy shot photos and then they sell them to all the sites.

I saw this a while back when I did a google search
http://jalopnik.com/is-this-our-first-glimpse-of-the-tesla-model-3-1682666246

I didn't see it picked up by one single media outlet.

The traditional auto makers also have a much greater ability to shove a drive train into another body as they have plenty to choose from. I think it's almost certain that Leaf 2 drivetrains have done a lot of miles under a leaf 1 body already with no one being the wiser.

I cant see Nissan putting in a 60 kw battery in to a leaf. The cost of the battery (2x the current 30 kw) does not justify a mere increase in convenience and range for the customer. Why pay for a large battery if you only use 1/3 of its capacity every day. I have a 24 kw battery, and it works for me, and I use its FULL CAPACITY THAT I PAID FOR. I wouldn't mind the 30 kw battery, but I think more than that for a local commuter car is overkill. Would anyone pay an extra 7-10K to get a 60 kw battery just so you don't have to charge the car every night??

I'm sure just like in '16, next gen Leaf will have 2 battery sizes at least. The largest will be 60 kwh and competitive with Bolt.

Leaf is not just a commuter car, it is the local travel car for most owners.

kmp647 said:

Tesla did an amazing job keeping the model 3 details hidden.

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There were no spy pictures or leaked details of Leaf either before 2010 reaveal.

I'll happily pay a premium for a 60 kWh car, even though I average 35 miles a day. I want that excess capacity. Not all of my driving needs can be planned in advance and there are times when I have to be somewhere fast without stopping to charge.

powersurge said:

Would anyone pay an extra 7-10K to get a 60 kw battery just so you don't have to charge the car every night??

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Sure, plenty of people would pay a premium for rarely used range. For me, it could mean getting rid of an extra ICE car for longer trips. For most people, it has nothing to do with charging every night, but instead having the option to use the car on longer trips or running crosstown errands all day. In fact a 60kwh would also make a great car for a business, or metro area salesperson . And, with the cost of batteries coming down, the premium may not be so high.