So, if I understand it right, when the Leaf hits 200,000 units sold, the $7500 federal credit starts rolling off and over time phases out. My question is, when will this likely happen and is it model specific or manufacturer specific? Will a Gen2 leaf start fresh? If not, what if they call it a different model name? What if it is branded under Infiniti instead? I'd hate to see Nissan lose a ton of sales on a Gen2 model simply because they were the first one to the EV party, but if in 2-3 years when I'm turning in my 15' and I can't get the full credit, I may be inclined to buy from another manufacturer.
When Nissan hits 200,000 Leafs sold... tax credit?...
- Thread starter tkdbrusco
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mbender
Well-known member
I believe it is manufacturer-based, not by model. As for Nissan, it's anyone's (educated) guess on when 200,000 will be reached. Current US LEAF sales are probably just shy of 70,000, so with modest growth in sales (say 30k/40k/50k in the coming years), I'd guess mid-to-late 2017.
Of course, there's also always the chance that the credit will be extended, which would push it out further. I'm in the same boat with my 2015, but depending on this, the condition of its battery and other factors, I may just buy it at the end of the lease.
Of course, there's also always the chance that the credit will be extended, which would push it out further. I'm in the same boat with my 2015, but depending on this, the condition of its battery and other factors, I may just buy it at the end of the lease.
Yeah I feel like this will really hurt Nissan in the long run if it isn't extended. It would almost be in their best interest to brand new EVs under the Infiniti name, or even create a new company that is all EV only models, if they could do that. By 2017 there will be quite a few EVs being produced and almost every other manufacturer will be able to take advantage of this credit through its expiration in 2019. If Nissan loses it and everyone else still has it, they will be in a tough position, especially after leading the charge for so many years. Tesla will have plenty left over since they sell in such smaller numbers right now.
tkdbrusco said:
Either of those cases would be considered the same manufacturer.
The idea is to help offset the higher prices due to low quantity.
As economy of scale ramps up and lowers price, the rebates aren't needed anymore.
Both the Leaf and Volt have already lowered their prices.
I am sure over the next 2-3 years they will continue to do so.
tkdbrusco said:
Tesla will run out about 6 months after Nissan does, which will be about 6 months after Model 3 is introduced. Yeah, for those 6 months LEAF sales will suck.
CA has introduced an income cap for their EV rebate, but has yet to determine the exact income number. WA looks to follow suit. So that will exclude most Model S and Model X buyers.
Nissan, Tesla, and supporters should lobby to either extend the Fed credit or kill it.
Does not seem right that the companies spearheading BEVs should be forced to compete at a disadvantage vs the laggards like FCA.
DeeAgeaux said:
Completely agree. Nissan is going to be in a tough position, especially after leader the way. Which is why I'll be running out and buying either a Tesla Model 3 or a Leaf Gen 2 just before the $7500 credits start to expire. What you refer to with the California income cap, only pertains to the $2500 CA rebate that is currently offered. Since so many people are taking advantage of the $2500 credit in CA, they are anticipating that it will run out of money sooner and our whacky liberal government here in CA thinks that anyone who makes over a certain amount of money shouldn't qualify for it, because naturally those who work for a living are evil and should give their money to other people instead. Not sure where I would fall on the income cap, but it doesn't matter. I just got my $2500 check last week! Suckers! I doubt it will still be around when I buy my next EV. CA lawmakers cannot legislate federal taxation, so the $7500 tax credit can only be changed or modified by congress and not on a state by state basis. I wouldn't put it past them though to change it.
Obviously, CA state government can only alter the California $2500 EV rebate not the Federal $7500 tax credit.
For purposes of qualifying for Medium Income Housing in Los Angeles Co, the cutoff for a single person without dependents is $60k. Obviously, as you add persons to the household the number goes up. About 2% of Model S buyers make less than $60k, probably people that have paid off their mortgage. My guess is the cap for CA State rebate will be right around that number.
For purposes of qualifying for Medium Income Housing in Los Angeles Co, the cutoff for a single person without dependents is $60k. Obviously, as you add persons to the household the number goes up. About 2% of Model S buyers make less than $60k, probably people that have paid off their mortgage. My guess is the cap for CA State rebate will be right around that number.
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
so when do we think Nissan will hit 200,000? I think it will be long before my current lease runs out in Dec 2016 I am afraid. Nissan will sell about 30,000 this year, guessing 50,000 next year then the BIG question is how much in 2016?
This is the year I expect LEAF II to come out and I also predict if the model is realeased early enough in the year, it will also be the first time Nissan goes over 100,000 in EV sales which means I would miss the credit although I would not hesitate to carry two LEAFs for a few months if it became that close.
But keep in mind that a LEAF with double the range for the the current price or even a little less even without the tax credit would not be that much more expensive value wise. it is this expected technology increase that is behind the tax credit to begin with.
This is the year I expect LEAF II to come out and I also predict if the model is realeased early enough in the year, it will also be the first time Nissan goes over 100,000 in EV sales which means I would miss the credit although I would not hesitate to carry two LEAFs for a few months if it became that close.
But keep in mind that a LEAF with double the range for the the current price or even a little less even without the tax credit would not be that much more expensive value wise. it is this expected technology increase that is behind the tax credit to begin with.
TomT
Well-known member
When they hit the limit, I believe that Nissan will have no choice but to reduce the price of the vehicle by a commensurate amount if they wish to remain competitive...
And if gas prices remain low (or drop even further, which is likely) selling 50,000 in 2015 might be a bit of a stretch...
And if gas prices remain low (or drop even further, which is likely) selling 50,000 in 2015 might be a bit of a stretch...
DaveinOlyWA said:
DaveinOlyWA
Well-known member
gas prices will not remain low because the expense of getting it continues to rise. right now they are simply dealing with smaller margins but oil companies have never had much patience in that area so guessing the usual manipulations will be in full swing by late Spring if other forces have not pushed prices up by then.
last 3 fillups
11/7 $2.769
11/20 $2.859
12/7 $2.649
with this amount of "consistency" is truly is just a matter of time and I am guessing it won't be long
last 3 fillups
11/7 $2.769
11/20 $2.859
12/7 $2.649
with this amount of "consistency" is truly is just a matter of time and I am guessing it won't be long
TomT
Well-known member
Not if OPEC decides otherwise, and they clearly have of late... I suspect that we'll see low gas prices through the 2016 election at least...
DaveinOlyWA said:
We have a ways to go....
While this page sales "produces" :http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml:
The credit begins to phase out for vehicles at the beginning of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer produces 200,000 eligible plug-in electric vehicles (i.e., plug-in hybrids and EVs) as counted from January 1, 2010. IRS will announce when a manufacturer exceeds this production figure and will announce the subsequent phase out schedule (Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales).
The reporting requirement is for "sold for use in the United States": http://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB/ar09.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).
As of June 30 2014, the total reported by the manufacturer and posted by the IRS was 72,294.
At a rate of 3,676 Leafs per month (12 month average from 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014) qualified sales would reach 200,954 in May of 2017. That means the full credit would be good until Sept 2017, half credit until March 2018, and 25% credit until Sept 2018.
To not get the full credit in end of 2016, average month sales would have to increase 45% to 5,322.
Given the trends with gas prices, that's not going to be easy.
While this page sales "produces" :http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/taxevb.shtml:
The credit begins to phase out for vehicles at the beginning of the second calendar quarter after the manufacturer produces 200,000 eligible plug-in electric vehicles (i.e., plug-in hybrids and EVs) as counted from January 1, 2010. IRS will announce when a manufacturer exceeds this production figure and will announce the subsequent phase out schedule (Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales).
The reporting requirement is for "sold for use in the United States": http://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB/ar09.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”).
As of June 30 2014, the total reported by the manufacturer and posted by the IRS was 72,294.
At a rate of 3,676 Leafs per month (12 month average from 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014) qualified sales would reach 200,954 in May of 2017. That means the full credit would be good until Sept 2017, half credit until March 2018, and 25% credit until Sept 2018.
To not get the full credit in end of 2016, average month sales would have to increase 45% to 5,322.
Given the trends with gas prices, that's not going to be easy.
