with lease rates on ev's down to 199 a month, do you think in 3 years you still would have been better buying? I was reading that the spark ev is 199 a month and 1000 down, since i live in a hot climate and the leaf isnt liquid cooled, i decided against buying a leaf, but I did the math on the spark ev. after 3 years you would be in the hole 8200.00. You can buy the spark for 19k after the 7500. In 3 years, you would have to get less than 10,800.00 for leasing to have been better then buying. Isnt it almost impossible for a ev that saves 1500 a year in gas to not sell for at least 15k in 3 years? I would think buying is a slam dunk over leasing. Where am I wrong.........For those that bought a Leaf in 2011, how has the math added up for you.
Math behind leasing vs buying
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klapauzius
Well-known member
Well, I did not compare to the lease prices at the time.
If buying was a wise choice will critically depend on the availability of a replacement battery in ~ 5 years (and its price of course).
Annual savings on gas for me are ~ $1400 (compared to e.g. a 30 mpg ICE).
If buying was a wise choice will critically depend on the availability of a replacement battery in ~ 5 years (and its price of course).
Annual savings on gas for me are ~ $1400 (compared to e.g. a 30 mpg ICE).
apvbguy
Well-known member
In a world where the technology is stagnant your thinkimgevboy said:
might be on target but in this quickly evolving sector of the auto industry a lot can change in 3 years and your bargain in 2013 could be an obsolete hunk of lithium and metals in 2016
I couldn't afford to buy a Leaf - I'm just renting it for two years because I want to drive an EV. We got lucky on our Prius lease, because the lease payments, plus down payment, plus end of lease purchase price, add up to no more than we would have paid if we'd bought it new, at 0% interest. They were *really* trying to move Priuses in 2010! Generally, I think leases are good only for driving cars you can't afford to buy, or for new technology as mentioned.
what about all the talk that battery technology doesnt progress as fast as computer technology. can we really see a battery that goes 200 miles on a charge for 19k after the 7500 in 3 years? all the ev's now are around 80 miles a charge for 19k to 24k after incentive. if so, buyers are going to take a serious beating when they sell in 2016.
GRA
Well-known member
Few people expect 200 miles for 19k in three years, but 100-150 EPA miles for $20-$30k after incentive is certainly possible and even likely, assuming the average 6-8%/year improvement in battery specific energy/energy density and/or price per kWh since Dec. 2010. After all, the EPA credits the LEAF now with 84 miles (100% charge), so getting to 100 miles would only require a 19% improvement in specific energy (for the same gross weight), or an extra 4-5 kWh usable for about the same price or a bit more. And that would increase the year-round and long-term utility a great deal for many people, making an interim lease now a good option.evboy said:
Almost no one needs a normal daily EPA range beyond about 150-200 miles, which can be considered to provide a dependable real world range of 2/3rds that in any conditions when new, or 45-50% when the battery is at its EoL (.67 x .7 = .469). It remains to be seen if Tesla can manage to build a car profitably by 2017 that will go 200 EPA miles for 1/2-4/7 of what they are currently charging for an S-60, but some decrease in price is inevitable.
WMTribe90
Active member
I purchased 2013 Leaf S with charge package for roughly $30,000 using a Friends and Family discount ($1,000). State and Federal tax credits should total at least $12,000. That brings the starting price to $18,000. If I save $1,200/yr on gas and maintenance for the 8 years of anticipated battery life, I basically bought and drove a new car for 8 years for around $8,500. I plan to drive the car for 10 years and the anticipated battery degradation should allow me to before I even have to consider battery replacement. That assumes gas prices does continue to rise, which they almost certainly will. After 8-10 years, an affordable battery replacement would be gravy. Regardless of where the technology goes, the car isn't obsolete as long as its meeting your needs. That's why I went with buying over leasing.
Leasing makes sense too for a lot of reasons brought up on this board, but I think buying is appropriate for those planning on long-term use in suitable climates. Especially if there are state tax credits to be had on top of Federal.
Leasing makes sense too for a lot of reasons brought up on this board, but I think buying is appropriate for those planning on long-term use in suitable climates. Especially if there are state tax credits to be had on top of Federal.
Boomer23
Well-known member
evboy said:
Taking a snapshot in time right now for a 2011 LEAF SL purchased or leased around April of 2011, leasing vs purchase is basically a push.
Excluding license fees, state rebates, etc, which vary state to state, but including sales tax.
Purchase:
$34,500 sales price
$2,910 sales tax
-$7,500 Fed rebate
-$17,000 trade-in price
__________
$12,910 out of pocket cost if sold today
Lease: (3yr 12K miles/yr, $1,000 at delivery includes only first payment, DMV fees, lease inception fee rolled into mo pmnt, therefore, DMV fees excluded from calculation since excluded from purchase calc)
Lease pmnts total 26 X $415/mo = $10,790
Payoff to get out of lease early = $2.300 @ ($19,300 remaining lease amount less $17,000 trade in value)
Lease end fee $395 (if due, may not be due if a dealer buys out your lease)
____________
$13,485 total lease costs if leased car bought back by dealer today
Extend things out an additional year and your guess is as good as mine. Lease payments would add up to about $5K more after 12 more months. For the purchase comparison, will a used 2011 LEAF with 35,000 miles and 10 battery bars be worth only $12,000 in July of 2104? I think it may well be. So if this is true, the decision is still a push. Except that the customer who leased gets to walk away from the car, while the purchaser has to sell it to someone. Plus by leasing, you don't have to come up with close to $40K up front and then file a tax return and hope you get the full $7,500 off your taxes.
CayenneSJLEAFy
Active member
I initially leased our 2011 LEAF and bought out the lease 3 months later. Quite a few people did this in the SF Bay Area, so they can get the $7500 back right away (comes out as a discount from the dealer). It became apparent within the first month of ownership that our LEAF can be used as our primary car. Trusting Nissan at the time, knowing that the battery and LEAF factory will be built in Smyrna (thinking more volume would decrease battery pack replacement cost), and not having heard about the heat-related battery degradation yet, we bought out the lease early.
Of course now the lease rates have really dropped since 2011--so leasing is very attractive. And we've heard about heat-based battery degradation for over a year now. We've babied the battery as much as we can from the beginning, parking in the shade, no FC when it's above 70 degrees, cooling the garage or parking overnight to keep the battery cool.
Aside from the battery degradation (we lost our 1st bar at 35K miles) we truly love our LEAF. Nearly 23 months of ownership, and we've put 36K miles on the car. Figured that calendar life degradation is likely a variable, thought what the hell--let's use the car at any opportunity we can. Our van, which used to get 15K miles/year, has been driven less than 4K during the past 8 months.
But given the low, attractive lease rates today, and what I know now about the car, I probably would have leased today versus buying the car. Looking at the choices available, I probably would still lease a '13 LEAF. With a lease, I wouldn't have had to worry about temperature so much--I wouldn't have to worry about keeping the car in the hot garage, or how often I can DCFC the car, or what happens when the battery needs replacement. All those headaches would be gone. Although, as someone mentioned earlier, I would have "lease anxiety," as I wouldn't be able to drive as much as I am right now.
Of course now the lease rates have really dropped since 2011--so leasing is very attractive. And we've heard about heat-based battery degradation for over a year now. We've babied the battery as much as we can from the beginning, parking in the shade, no FC when it's above 70 degrees, cooling the garage or parking overnight to keep the battery cool.
Aside from the battery degradation (we lost our 1st bar at 35K miles) we truly love our LEAF. Nearly 23 months of ownership, and we've put 36K miles on the car. Figured that calendar life degradation is likely a variable, thought what the hell--let's use the car at any opportunity we can. Our van, which used to get 15K miles/year, has been driven less than 4K during the past 8 months.
But given the low, attractive lease rates today, and what I know now about the car, I probably would have leased today versus buying the car. Looking at the choices available, I probably would still lease a '13 LEAF. With a lease, I wouldn't have had to worry about temperature so much--I wouldn't have to worry about keeping the car in the hot garage, or how often I can DCFC the car, or what happens when the battery needs replacement. All those headaches would be gone. Although, as someone mentioned earlier, I would have "lease anxiety," as I wouldn't be able to drive as much as I am right now.
i recently had to choose between leasing a new 2013 SL...or buying a used 2011 SL...I chose to buy the 2011. We bought it for the same time length the lease would have been. 39 months, Payments were about the same with 0 down.
I bought mostly because we want 1 car payment. Leasing means that once the lease is complete, I have to either Buy that car, or turn it in and Lease a different car. Leasing forces me to continue to have a car payment (a leas or buy), even after my 39 month lease is over.
Mainly, we want to replace my wifes car in a few years, her car is paid off. So, being able to Buy the 2011, lets us have a car payment for the Leaf for a few years, pay it off, then get my wife a new car - and still only have 1 car payment. Then - pay hers off in a few years, then get ride of the Leaf (which will be paid off)+ plus we would have gotten a **** load of use out of the Leaf by then (even if the I only get 40 miles of range by then <--Fingers crossed!)
I bought mostly because we want 1 car payment. Leasing means that once the lease is complete, I have to either Buy that car, or turn it in and Lease a different car. Leasing forces me to continue to have a car payment (a leas or buy), even after my 39 month lease is over.
Mainly, we want to replace my wifes car in a few years, her car is paid off. So, being able to Buy the 2011, lets us have a car payment for the Leaf for a few years, pay it off, then get my wife a new car - and still only have 1 car payment. Then - pay hers off in a few years, then get ride of the Leaf (which will be paid off)+ plus we would have gotten a **** load of use out of the Leaf by then (even if the I only get 40 miles of range by then <--Fingers crossed!)
cwerdna
Well-known member
Where does "all that talk" come from? Can you cite any reputable publications or sites?evboy said:
It sounds more like wishful thinking amongst those who don't know. It sure doesn't seem like battery technology is progressing anywhere even close to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
There's been a bunch of what appears to be GM/Envia FUD. See http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=9874&p=224784&hilit=envia+fud#p224784" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.
Oh yeah... when people like to cite ranges from inflated test cycles, that confuses things even more... If you believe the exec I cited at http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?p=304180#p304180" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; (you can watch the video yourself), the '13 Leaf has 124 mile range... :roll: (Sure, it's achievable, but only at low speeds.)
