cpreston wrote:... Do we really think that the Leaf versions of many of these things (e.g. Electric Motor, Reducer instead of Transmission, etc) are never going to need replacing either?
And, of course, at some point we're going to need to replace our batteries, right? The ones they have no idea what they're going to charge us for?
Yeah there definitely might be some irrational exuberance here at MNL. However, my neighbor has a lot of forklifts with 10+ year old engines at his work, different type of motor & work cycle, but I still think you're gonna have to drive for an awful long time before you need to replace the drive components in a LEAF.
The battery is definitely a more of an unknown and higher risk. The question is two fold: (1) will we need to replace it in 10yrs, 7yrs, or 3yrs? and (2) will demand continue to grow so that companies will invest in the technology? If acceptance of EVs accelerates the way we'd all like, battery costs should come down and performance will improve, so replacement could be an upgrade cheaper than buying a new car. However, if people continue to think EVs are not going to work for them (thanx to never ending FUD) combined with the US government giving up on EVs (which looks more & more likely every day given current rhetoric), we could be left in the cold. That would be a tragedy and yet another example of American shortsightedness, but given our government's inability to so much as provide a hint of a coherent Energy Policy in the last 15yrs, it is looking much more probable than EV success to me.
I'm anticipating that my battery will last b/c I am operating within 30-80% most of the time. But I hedged my bets by going with a lease so that I could either upgrade in 3yrs without a white elephant on my hands or, if works the way I hope it will, keep the car for only a little bit more than as if I bought it.