How much will a 2011 Leaf be worth in 2017?

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Deleted member 1622

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Jan 14, 2011
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142
Hello -
How much will a 2011 Leaf SL I own now be worth in 2017?
It's not a theoretical question, it actually matters a lot in a decision I have to make. Should I sell my poor, tired 2011 Leaf now (under 80% capacity, about 50 miles highway) and lease a 2016 Leaf for two years while I wait for my next bought car, which will be a Gen2 or a Tesla, whichever comes to market first). Or should I just stand pat and deal with the limited range, and wait for cars and batteries that have more than 100 actual miles range?
My wife is convinced that the extra cost of a lease over 2 years (about $4,000 making some assumptions about what we could get for the Leaf in 2017) is not worth it. But I've heard that the 2016 Leafs may have 125 real miles due to some battery upgrades, which makes it tempting.
So the question is, will the 2011 Leaf have ANY value beyond scrap and battery recycling in 2017? The current Blue Book is $6092 Trade in and $7679 to a private party for a Very Good condition 40K miles model. Will there be a steep decline in the next two years (as if a 30K loss in less than 5 years isn't enough of a decline, ugh), or is this drop in value going to flatten out?
Fact-based opinions would be much appreciated.

Best,
Josh
 
Well, the damage is already done, I don't think there is much to lose left with your current car except the time spent on managing the reduced range. If that is a concern just lease an S, with your kind of annual mileage you will probably come out almost even after 2-3 years when the new gen should be available. I'm keeping my '11, but I drive at least twice as many miles so it appears to be a less expensive option than lease even if I have to send the car to scrapyard in 3 years time, but I hope it will still be worth $2,000, give or take. If you have children who will be ready to drive in 2-3 years that's another consideration to keep it.
 
Maybe Tesla will help you retrofit it with its batteries once the Gigafactory is up and running. :D
Then of course there is that stupid 3.3 charger. Just can't win this one no matter how you try...
 
I really want to have this problem when the charger is underpowered for the battery size in my Leaf, but chances are it will never happen.
 
Depends on the price of scrap metal.

haha, sorry, that was just my Tom impression since he hasn't made it in here yet.
 
My 2 cents, I think the price will flatten out at $3-4000 for a good condition car with average millage. Most of the early cars will be snapped up by people that see the value in it however there will not be enough of those buyers so supply and demand will keep the prices low.

The $3-4000 used car buyer where that is all they can afford will still be put off by the limited range and fear of the unknown probably even more so than new car buyers are now. This will limit the market for used leafs to people that could afford a new car but are looking for a great deal. You may find that those smarter buyers will see the value in spending $500-$1000 more for a leaf but that'll only happen if there isn't a huge surplus.
 
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