Will Leaf Prices Come Down by 2021?

[Honva]

All manufacturers have plans to lower battery price. However, it does not mean EV prices will come down. It only means they could start making money selling EVs. It is always the market demand that drive price. If sales numbers are down, they will have factory rebate kick in. When government stops handing out rebate incentives for EV, manufacturers will also lower prices a bit to keep the cars moving.

 

[arnis]

Leaf prices will not come down. It is how car manufacturers work.
But Nissan will likely add one more EV to their lineup. And then another. And then another.
And same with other manufacturers. Model S price will not drop. Model X price will not drop.
Model 3 price will not drop ($35k). BMW i3 price will not drop. Ioniq EV prices will not drop.
But there will be more choice.
For example, years ago, cheapest BMW you could get was 3-series. There was demand for cheaper
vehicles, and here we have. 1-series.
In case of Nissan, there might be Nissan Versa EV with 30kWh battery and 60kW motor for $25k in 2021.
Nissan Leaf is not the cheapest Nissan. Actually, tech-wise, it's their higher end vehicle.
Premium vehicle from non-premium manufacturer :lol: . Leaf in 2021 will still be high tech.

 

[powersurge]

All manufacturers have the same plan. I heard it first from VW.
2011 Leafs are selling for $5K, so prices are always coming down.

This is not true... Leafs are very overpriced right now... People are trying to cash in on the cars before the battery crashes. A game of musical chairs...

 

[powersurge]

My take is that EV's are on the same point of the cost/performance cars that PC's were in the 80's and 90's. Back then, PC prices were fairly constant but the performance was improving at a dramatic rate and anything more than a few years old was not very useful, since the software requirements were also increasing and trying to run new software on an old PC was painful or impossible.

My 2017 will still have all the utility I need (gets me around town for near $0 costs). So even if a 2021 Leaf has a 300 mile range and can charge at 100A or whatever, my car will still suit my needs. I don't expect used EV prices to drop as fast as used PC prices used to since they will keep more of their usefulness over time compared to a 1.0 mega-pixel camera or a 286-based PC.

The biggest opposing argument I can see is if someone needs more range or faster charging. If an EV is used as an around town car, that isn't a issue, at least for me or others in smaller metro areas. As long as there is a demand for short range, cheap cars that should support Leaf prices in the future.

Of course, if a miracle occurs and you can buy a 100kWh Leaf equivalent with unlimited battery life for $20k, that would change everything.

i agree with you completely.... EVs will not drop in price because except for the motor and battery, the rest of the car is just like any other car, and then those costs will only go up. A useful car TODAY will have value Tomorrow. And hopefully replacement batteries over the years will get cheaper and more powerful, extending the useful life of today's EVs..

 

[ewoodrick]

There are a number of factors that creep into this statement. First, in the US, remember that with tax rebate, the cost is only ABOUT $23K - $30K. The first question is what will happen as the rebates start disappearing. In Georgia, as or rebate disappeared, sales plummeted. There weren't any on the lots, partly because the leases that were available beforehand cost consumers around $2k. >$179 leases with a $5K state rebate is a pretty awesome deal.

So, can Nissan afford for the cost to increase that much after the fed rebate disappears? I dare say that they have already baked the solution into their plan and that you will see some decreases in the prices as the subsidies phase out.

Now, on the other side, the 2018 Leaf has been introduced at effectively the same price as previous models. I now have double the range as my 2015 and I've got the Pro-Pilot to boot. The top-end 2018 is going to cost me less than $30k.

But most importantly, 2021? Why that long to ask? There's expected to be a lot of changes in things by then and you will be comparing apples to oranges.