Will ANY 2011/2012 LEAFs still have 80% capacity at 5 years?

[dhanson865]

At ~ 30 seconds, Andy Palmer mentions

Nothing he said is accurate or applies, as proven by the dozens of cars that have lost 4 bars and got a free battery.

Please stop posting misinformation.

 

[Valdemar]

Is this legally possible without court order to find out all registered Leaf owners in the US? If someone could do it and gather sufficiently enough statistics on the lost bars at 5y mark would it be possible to go after Nissan using this data?

 

[edatoakrun]

At ~ 30 seconds, Andy Palmer mentions

Nothing he said is accurate or applies...

I think the minute of the interview from ~4:20 to ~5:20 applies directly to those of you who have anxiety over the SOH "gauge" (the capacity bar display).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1tfX7fRWPI
Of more interest to me, is how accurate was what Palmer states between ~three and ~four minutes about capacity loss of Phoenix LEAFs, specifically that the norm would be for LEAF packs retaining ~76% of their delivered capacity after ~five years and ~37,500 miles

This could only be known if Phoenix LEAF owners who drove ~ this many miles kept their OE packs for five years, and also accurately estimated the remaining capacity at that time.

Not likely to happen, since Nissan's solution to the early degradation problem, whether real or imagined, was to simply replace LEAF batteries after they lost four capacity bars.

quote="dhanson865"
...dozens of cars that have lost 4 bars (have received) ...a free battery.

In fact, the total number of packs replaced by Nissan will probably eventually be in the hundreds, not dozens.

But out of hundreds of thousands of LEAF sales, this cost will essentially be chump change for Nissan.

Well played, Nissan!

 

[hill]

With LEAF VIN ###000659 (south OC), I have avoided the update that seemed to preserve GOM bars going away. What's weird is that Andy says degradation is nonlinear. Our first bar bar disappeared at 40,000 miles. The second bar went away just last week at just 51,000 miles. That means andy is correct. The degradation is nonlinear. The curve seems to be going in the opposite direction, where degradation is actually speeding up.

 

[Valdemar]

With LEAF VIN ###000659 (south OC), I have avoided the update that seemed to preserve GOM bars going away. What's weird is that Andy says degradation is nonlinear. Our first bar bar disappeared at 40,000 miles. The second bar went away just last week at just 51,000 miles. That means andy is correct. The degradation is nonlinear. The curve seems to be going in the opposite direction, where degradation is actually speeding up.

Don't forget that the 1st bar is twice is "thick" as the others. My 3rd bar went faster than the 2nd, so I tend to agree with the theory that we are not going to see the degradation slowing down, and may actually see it happening faster, likely due to deeper cycling of the pack.

 

[TLeaf]

I'll be able to answer this question for sure in 5 more months, but my 2011 (made in 2010) is certainly looking like it could hit the 80%/5 year threshold. I'm looking at roughly 84% on the battery right now with roughly half of our summer over with.

Admittedly, this is for a Pacific Northwest LEAF with under 40K on the odo (what can I say; I put over 8K on the Vectrix)...

 

[nosuchthing]

So, to answer the thread's rhetorical question: Hopefully NOT.
(You all shall receive new batteries - maybe the 2016 30kW ones).

 

[GetOffYourGas]

So, to answer the thread's rhetorical question: Hopefully NOT.
(You all shall receive new batteries - maybe the 2016 30kW ones).

What are you smoking? There is no way that I'm going to buy a new battery in the next two years, even if it does have 30kWh - that is just not enough of a jump to be worth it. And if you are saying Nissan will buy one for me, well, you're even crazier still!

 

[edatoakrun]

...no way that I'm going to buy a new battery in the next two years, even if it does have 30kWh...

I might buy one in ~two years, IF:

Nissan makes the "30 kWh" pack backward compatible for 2011-15 LEAFs. That's still not a sure thing, IMO.

Nissan makes the "30 kWh" pack price attractive, ~ the same price per kWh (or less) than previously announced for the "24 kWh" packs.

Nissan allows me to retain my OE "24 kWh" pack (for use in my home) by paying ~ the previously announced $1,000 core charge, rather than requiring I trade it in.

="GetOffYourGas"...that is just not enough of a jump to be worth it...

As of now, I estimate that my OE pack lets me use, on average, ~18 kWh of capacity, from "100%" charge to turtle, when warm.

In ~two more years, after ~55k miles and ~74 months from delivery, I expect my OE pack's available capacity will probably be down to between 16.5 and 17 kWh, from "100%" charge to turtle, when warm.

Assuming the "30 kWh" pack really has ~30 kWh static capacity, and if it allows ~the same ~90% average of static capacity to be accessible as in the 2011-12 packs, then ~27 kWh will be available when warm.

So I should get ~70% increase in my available pack capacity, by buying the new pack.

That increase in average available capacity would result in very significant range increases for my 2011.

Of course, I might be able to get a better deal, by waiting for a few more years, when the "30 kWh" packs start showing up in junkyards.

 

[Valdemar]

Of course, I might be able to get a better deal, by waiting for a few more years, when the "30 kWh" packs start showing up in junkyards.

Not until you solve the battery pairing problem first.

 

[Valdemar]

Of course, I might be able to get a better deal, by waiting for a few more years, when the "30 kWh" packs start showing up in junkyards.

Not until you solve the battery pairing problem

 

[desiv]

Not until you solve the battery pairing problem

Couldn't he open both packs and swap out the individual battery modules? Or is there an ID chip/module in there and he could just swap that?
(Or are there ID chips in each battery module?)

Yes, that's MUCH MUCH more work than just swapping the whole pack, but there's already a set of youtube vids showing how to open a pack and remove everything.

desiv

 

[Valdemar]

Not until you solve the battery pairing problem

Couldn't he open both packs and swap out the individual battery modules? Or is there an ID chip/module in there and he could just swap that?
(Or are there ID chips in each battery module?)

Yes, that's MUCH MUCH more work than just swapping the whole pack, but there's already a set of youtube vids showing how to open a pack and remove everything.

desiv

24kWh<->24kWh probably yes for the 2011/12 MY, MY 2011/12 vs. 2013+ maybe; 24kWh<->30kWh probably not.

There may be an easier route if dealers can get the key card from Nissan based on the pack serial #, it'll cost you some $$ additional for the card and pairing but definitely cleaner than pack surgery.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Yeah, the numbers tell one story, but what that means in real life will be very different depending on one's driving patterns. For me, I rarely use more than 10kWh in a day. The number of trips I take in a year that 27kWh would allow but 12kWh would not probably number in the single digits. I will probably never replace my pack, short of a catastrophic failure. Much more likely, I will upgrade to a Leaf 2/Bolt/Model III long before I would consider a new 30kWh battery.

In truth, I will probably try to keep my 2012 Leaf for about 10 years. It would be nice to have ~65% capacity as predicted by the aging model, but not strictly necessary.

 

[forummm]

We have owned our LEAF for about two years now, but it is a demo with 2.5 years gone from the warranty.

Why do you think your warranty started before you bought it? Was it sold to you as "new" or "used"?

 

[sparky]

With LEAF VIN ###000659 (south OC), I have avoided the update that seemed to preserve GOM bars going away. What's weird is that Andy says degradation is nonlinear. Our first bar bar disappeared at 40,000 miles. The second bar went away just last week at just 51,000 miles. That means andy is correct. The degradation is nonlinear. The curve seems to be going in the opposite direction, where degradation is actually speeding up.

Mine too! I'm sitting at about 82%, 1-bar down. I'm in a hotter part of SoCal than you I suspect. Could possibly make 5 years (Jan'16). Decreased range has just started to have an impact on my wife's weekend driving. Funny thing is, she loves the car so much she doesn't want a new "anything". And it's really just the loss of those 15 miles or so that's been an issue. This LEAF has been zero trouble. I may have to pony up $6k for a replacement pack since that will be the "cheapest" option. #HappyWifeHappyLife

 

[carphen]

Well I'm the exception that proves the rule.. right on 70% (46.31Ah) mid 2015 for a 2011 Leaf. Starting to have to use more and more of capacity, so not expecting the rot to ease up.

 

[Rat]

I'm at four years now with my 2011 and still have the full 12 bars, but I only have 19,000 miles on the car and live in a moderate climate. I think the range may be down a tad, but I'm not sure because I always take the ICE car for anything over 50 miles.

 

[TomT]

It is ALL about climate! Location, location, location! Usage and mileage is very much secondary.

 

[hill]

It is ALL about climate! Location, location, location! Usage and mileage is very much secondary.

we just got back from the central CA valley. it was 100+ degrees near the supercharger station we stopped close to. I was in awe, listening to the refrigerating fans/coolant running hard core, to insure the Tesla packs stayed nice & cozy/comfortable while charging. I was feeling very "active cooling envious"

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