Will 2014 be another Leaf refresh or a whole new model?

[dgpcolorado]

I predict a larger pack option will be announced within 6 months. Failing this Nissan Leaf sales will dry up. They need to attract the next tranche of customers who need the slightly extended range of 120 miles at 100% charge.

Are they willing to pay 50% more money ? May be Nissan wants to get them to buy Infiniti EV instead, anyway.

I think in the short/medium term, their needs are easier to meet with a BEVx than an EV with a much larger price.

I agree. And what ever happened to the idea that most people don't drive more than 40 miles per day? Why make an expensive car even more expensive to accommodate the minority of drivers who routinely exceed LEAF range? They have other options. Meanwhile there are millions of two car households that could use a LEAF as a primary commuter car with an ICE or hybrid as backup for the occasional longer trip.

As others have pointed out over and over and over: an EV doesn't have to be all things to all people to have utility for many. The problem, as I see it, is one of education to change the deeply-held mindset that every car should be able to make a thousand mile road trip or it isn't useful.

 

[evnow]

Why make an expensive car even more expensive to accommodate the minority of drivers who routinely exceed LEAF range? They have other options.

If more range was all that was needed, RAV4 EV should be selling like hot cakes.

There is a very limited market for a non-luxury branded compact car above $40k.

 

[dgpcolorado]

If more range was all that was needed, RAV4 EV should be selling like hot cakes.

There is a very limited market for a non-luxury branded compact car above $40k.

Exactly right!

 

[TomT]

One thing to keep in mind is that a larger battery pack means less charge/recharge cycles, everything else being equal, which means less degradation over time and mileage...
So, even if you rarely use or need all the capacity of a larger battery pack, it is still beneficial.

In my case, battery degradation has meant that many trips I used to be able to make on an 80% charge now require 100%...

But I agree, a non-luxury EV over 40K is a very hard sell!

 

[AP1]

...And what ever happened to the idea that most people don't drive more than 40 miles per day? Why make an expensive car even more expensive to accommodate the minority of drivers who routinely exceed LEAF range? They have other options. Meanwhile there are millions of two car households that could use a LEAF as a primary commuter car with an ICE or hybrid as backup for the occasional longer trip.

As others have pointed out over and over and over: an EV doesn't have to be all things to all people to have utility for many. The problem, as I see it, is one of education to change the deeply-held mindset that every car should be able to make a thousand mile road trip or it isn't useful.

+1

I expect to keep my present Leaf for many years to come, no matter what breakthroughs occur in the future. I have no need for greater range and it fits my needs perfectly NOW and I bet that it it does so for many million other drivers.

 

[ERG4ALL]

My two cents would be that Nissan will keep increasing the mileage. I can't imagine that they would have invested billions of dollars if all they hoped to capture was the 80 mile per charge market. Regarding cost, now that the cars and batteries are made in Tenn. the difference in Yen to Dollar allowed them to drop the price $6,000. As I've mentioned before Mr. Ghosn has indicated that there will be more price cuts in the future. Also, it seems that Tesla is seeing the majority of orders are coming for the largest range battery pack. It seems logical that if a car maker can strive to get the same mileage at half the price, they would have plenty of customers. And, finally I just got back from an Italian car show. The new Lamborghinis and Ferraris were priced between a quarter of a million and $350K. I am not comparing the LEAF to either of those, I'm just pointing out that there is a market out there for people with a lot of money. Thus, there may be some that would opt for a 250 mile LEAF over a Mercedes or BMW at $50,000.

 

[evnow]

My two cents would be that Nissan will keep increasing the mileage. I can't imagine that they would have invested billions of dollars if all they hoped to capture was the 80 mile per charge market.

No - they are going to sell the best car they can make for around $30k. They can't magically make a car that gives 50% more range for the same price.

The new Lamborghinis and Ferraris were priced between a quarter of a million and $350K. I am not comparing the LEAF to either of those, I'm just pointing out that there is a market out there for people with a lot of money. Thus, there may be some that would opt for a 250 mile LEAF over a Mercedes or BMW at $50,000.

First, there isn't enough space in Leaf to stuff in batteries that would allow it to go 250 miles (3x what it has now). Second, just because there may be a dozen or so folks who will buy a 250 mile Leaf for $50k, doesn't make it worthwhile for Nissan to invest in making one.

I expect Tesla to be the only game in town @250 miles for a few more years.

 

[IBELEAF]

Why make an expensive car even more expensive to accommodate the minority of drivers who routinely exceed LEAF range? They have other options.

If more range was all that was needed, RAV4 EV should be selling like hot cakes.

There is a very limited market for a non-luxury branded compact car above $40k.

What hot cakes? Rav4 is only available in one state in limited quantities and high lease price. If I could buy one I would, but Toyota isn't interested in this car.

 

[dgpcolorado]

What hot cakes? Rav4 is only available in one state in limited quantities and high lease price. If I could buy one I would, but Toyota isn't interested in this car.

That one state, California, is very large and has a significant number of people interested in EVs, as well as thousands of LEAF owners/lessees. But the limited numbers of Rav4EVs reportedly aren't selling well despite much greater range than the LEAF. Why? Because of the high price, even though Toyota is selling them at a large loss.

And that's the point: the market for very high-priced longer range EVs is limited. For EVs to be successful the price needs to drop to something close to that of a mainstream ICE car. Longer range at a luxury car price isn't going to do it, IMO. Even Tesla hopes to move downmarket to affordable EVs someday if they can keep afloat that long.

 

[TomT]

ALL cars are price point sensitive except for the very highest end of the market... Even more so for an EV since it is a niche product by definition of its range and refuel limitations...

And that's the point: the market for very high-priced longer range EVs is limited. For EVs to be successful the price needs to drop to something close to that of a mainstream ICE car. Longer range at a luxury car price isn't going to do it, IMO. Even Tesla hopes to move downmarket to affordable EVs someday if they can keep afloat that long.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Why make an expensive car even more expensive to accommodate the minority of drivers who routinely exceed LEAF range? They have other options.

If more range was all that was needed, RAV4 EV should be selling like hot cakes.

There is a very limited market for a non-luxury branded compact car above $40k.

What hot cakes? Rav4 is only available in one state in limited quantities and high lease price. If I could buy one I would, but Toyota isn't interested in

The Rav4 is available anywhere in the USA, and is already in many states, including the Seattle area that you're in. You have to buy it here in California to qualify Toyota to get enough Zero Emission Vehicles credit to sell hundreds of thousands of oil burning cars. Here's a deal currently offered (and its not a lease as you incorrectly state):


$50,845 should be $49,800 MSRP with $200 blizzard pearl and $845 destination charge
-$7,000 north California Toyota cash for their yummy 0% financing ($7500 in SoCal)
-$3,857 dealer discount (the biggest one I've heard so far!!!!)
$39,988 Woo Hoo!!!! Net sales price

-$7,500 federal tax credit (assumes you have at least $7500 fed taxes to pay)
-$2,500 state tax rebate (no qualifiers except must stay in California for 36 months)

$29,988 effective net price

Add about $500-$1000 to ship it to your door, plus tax, title and license.

 

[shikataganai]

The Rav4 is available anywhere in the USA, and is already in many states, including the Seattle area that you're in. You have to buy it here in California to qualify Toyota to get enough Zero Emission Vehicles credit to sell hundreds of thousands of oil burning cars. Here's a deal currently offered (and its not a lease as you incorrectly state):

$50,845 should be $49,800 MSRP with $200 blizzard pearl and $845 destination charge
-$7,000 north California Toyota cash for their yummy 0% financing ($7500 in SoCal)
-$3,857 dealer discount (the biggest one I've heard so far!!!!)
$39,988 Woo Hoo!!!! Net sales price

-$7,500 federal tax credit (assumes you have at least $7500 fed taxes to pay)
-$2,500 state tax rebate (no qualifiers except must stay in California for 36 months)

$29,988 effective net price

Add about $500-$1000 to ship it to your door, plus tax, title and license.

The California tax rebate doesn't apply to non-Californians. Shipping is more like $1200-1500. The one upside is that Washington State exempts AFVs including EVs and dedicated CNG vehicles from their state vehicle sales/use tax, and there's no WA state income tax (thus no credits from its nonexistent self). So figure more like $35k after all is said and done to get one on the road in Seattle.

The fly in the ointment is the potential multiple thousands of dollars to flatbed it to and from California dealers should it ever develop a problem, since Toyota will only service it there.

No thanks.

 

[TonyWilliams]

The California tax rebate doesn't apply to non-Californians... there's no WA state income tax (thus no credits from its nonexistent self).

I mentioned that it had to stay in the state of California for 36 months. This $2500 California rebate is not, as you seem to suggest, a California state income tax credit. You don't have to have ever paid a penny of California tax to get the rebate.

Yes, some states don't have sales tax at all. Obviously, somebody would have to understand all the particulars for their particular state as to taxes, rebates, etc. Posting that for every USA state is well beyond my intent when posting about what the price is to purchase in California and have it shipped to you.

Also, many states and jurisdictions have their own rebate schemes. I think West Virginia offers $7500, for instance. Even within California, there are additional rebates in the Central Valley.

Shipping is more like $1200-1500.

I guess the price is whatever you happen to pay. Obviously, to anybody shipping cars, your number is not the best deal, particularly for a short run from California to Washington state. You could also drive the car for a few hundred bucks in hotels and food. Electricity will be mostly free.

The Rav4 can do about 450 miles per day with optimum charge opportunities. Thats about 150 mile range at 60mph, therefore 2.5 hours max travel and 5 hours to charge at RV parks. More practically, 300 miles is possible in 15 hours, with a 9 hour overnight to recharge and do it again the next day.

Folsom (near Sacramento, where the dealer is mentioned up thread) to Seattle is 775 miles, or about 3 days and two nights travel. Throw in an extra day and night for grins. NOTE: you will pay California sales tax if you take delivery in California, so this drive-it-out method is only advisable in states with similar sales tax to California (neither Oregon, Washington, or Montana have sales tax on EVs).

The fly in the ointment is the potential multiple thousands of dollars to flatbed it to and from California dealers should it ever develop a problem, since Toyota will only service it there.

No thanks.

Well, that will be interesting. Toyota cannot prevent me from moving to Maine tomorrow, nor can they prevent me from taking my Rav4 with me. Now, when the motor blows up and I need a new one, there are federal laws to ensure that my warranty is upheld. Toyota has dealers in Maine.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that this is something I would take to arbitration long before I would volunteer to ship it both ways every 5000 miles for a warranty checkup. This is, admittedly, where folks are correct to pause before committing to this car out of state.

 

[JimSouCal]

...And what ever happened to the idea that most people don't drive more than 40 miles per day? Why make an expensive car even more expensive to accommodate the minority of drivers who routinely exceed LEAF range? They have other options. Meanwhile there are millions of two car households that could use a LEAF as a primary commuter car with an ICE or hybrid as backup for the occasional longer trip.

As others have pointed out over and over and over: an EV doesn't have to be all things to all people to have utility for many. The problem, as I see it, is one of education to change the deeply-held mindset that every car should be able to make a thousand mile road trip or it isn't useful.

+1

I expect to keep my present Leaf for many years to come, no matter what breakthroughs occur in the future. I have no need for greater range and it fits my needs perfectly NOW and I bet that it it does so for many million other drivers.

I will take that further--my LEAF will do meet most all of my driving needs with almost 50% battery degradation. That said, I might look for a battery refresh of greater capacity, the use of my LEAF for back up power for the house, and so on and so forth. I'd be buying gadget toys for it now, but they are simply not available.

I am part of a yet to be determined size market segment for upgrades to my LEAF.

 

[Geraldk]

The Rav4 is available anywhere in the USA, and is already in many states, including the Seattle area that you're in. You have to buy it here in California to qualify Toyota to get enough Zero Emission Vehicles credit to sell hundreds of thousands of oil burning cars. Here's a deal currently offered (and its not a lease as you incorrectly state):


$50,845 should be $49,800 MSRP with $200 blizzard pearl and $845 destination charge
-$7,000 north California Toyota cash for their yummy 0% financing ($7500 in SoCal)
-$3,857 dealer discount (the biggest one I've heard so far!!!!)
$39,988 Woo Hoo!!!! Net sales price

-$7,500 federal tax credit (assumes you have at least $7500 fed taxes to pay)
-$2,500 state tax rebate (no qualifiers except must stay in California for 36 months)

$29,988 effective net price

Add about $500-$1000 to ship it to your door, plus tax, title and license.

[/quote]

Toyota does not want to sell these. I had a check for 50,000 and they would not sell me one. Went with the leaf instead. I really liked the RAV, but I am very happy with the Leaf and was 40,000 cheaper!

 

[cwerdna]

Toyota does not want to sell these. I had a check for 50,000 and they would not sell me one. Went with the leaf instead. I really liked the RAV, but I am very happy with the Leaf and was 40,000 cheaper!

Huh? I can tell you Dianne over at Carson will sell you one. From her posts on Priuschat, she has a bunch on her lot.

Shipping is more like $1200-1500.

I guess the price is whatever you happen to pay. Obviously, to anybody shipping cars, your number is not the best deal, particularly for a short run from California to Washington state.

Agree. That sounds like not very good shipping price.

I asked for a quote from Plycar (they ship for Tesla and do it in an enclosed trailer) who shipped my former 350Z from the Bay Area to WA for quote to ship it back in mid-July 2011. The quote was for $1000. I'm sure you could probably find a cheaper shipper, esp. for a non-enclosed trailer.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Toyota does not want to sell these. I had a check for 50,000 and they would not sell me one. Went with the leaf instead. I really liked the RAV, but I am very happy with the Leaf and was 40,000 cheaper!

They absolutely do want to sell them. I will sell you mine for $50k right now, and then I will go buy a net $30k one tomorrow.

Unless you bought a wrecked LEAF, you didn't get if for $10k.

Your data doesn't pass the basic smell test. However, if you're talking about many months ago, when the car was just released, no, they weren't discounting much.

 

[turbo2ltr]

I heard from someone from Nissan that the 2014 was going to be a significant redesign..or at least address some of the shortcomings of the current chassis. But that was probably a year ago.

 

[ERG4ALL]

EVNow wrote

No - they are going to sell the best car they can make for around $30k. They can't magically make a car that gives 50% more range for the same price.

I couldn't agree more that Nissan will sell the best car they can make for around $30K. That doesn't preclude them from offering options that might drive the price to $50,000. Tesla is doing that exact same thing. The lowest offered model costs half what the top-of-the-line model costs.

Regarding space limitations, granted much larger than 100 miles per charge will require battery improvement because of space limitations, but I also believe that if Nissan thought that the battery technology had reached its limit it would think twice about the large expenditure to build the LEAF at all considering its niche market. GM made that mistake when they thought that they had achieved the ultimate in battery technology with NiCad (or was it nickel metal hydride?). In "The Revenge of the Electric Car" it quotes one Exec from GM as saying that stopping the program was a mistake. They had a 14 year jump on the competition and they gave it away. After reading many articles about the effort going into a better battery technology, I have confidence that enough improvements will be made that we could see a 250 mile LEAF, but then I am an optimists when it comes to this stuff.

 

[evnow]

I couldn't agree more that Nissan will sell the best car they can make for around $30K. That doesn't preclude them from offering options that might drive the price to $50,000. Tesla is doing that exact same thing. The lowest offered model costs half what the top-of-the-line model costs.

I didn't say the $30k target precludes $50k trim. As I said further down there is a miniscule market for a $50k compact car with larger range.

Regarding space limitations, granted much larger than 100 miles per charge will require battery improvement because of space limitations, but I also believe that if Nissan thought that the battery technology had reached its limit it would think twice about the large expenditure to build the LEAF at all considering its niche market.

Nobody thinks battery tech has reached its peak. Infact most of us think it is at the beginning. But we are only talking about MY14 - battery energy density doesn't improve at the pace of transistor density.