Will 2014 be another Leaf refresh or a whole new model?

[pgrokkos]

Just checking in to see if anyone has seen any information on 2014 yet.

I'm likely pulling the trigger on a 2013 soon, but was disappointed that the range numbers didn't show a bit of a bigger jump. 100 miles has always been a trigger in my mind.

My guess is that another incremental change in 2014 wouldn't get us there, but a new model issuance would probably do it. But I'm not really willing to wait until 2015 (my guess is that if not a new model in 2014, then you would definitely see one in 2015). Given that I'm going to lease, perhaps even with a 2 year lease, I'm fine with that. But if there was some strong sentiment that a 2014 would be all new, then I'd consider holding off.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

First, to make sure you're aware, the 2013 Leaf's range is rated at 84 miles with a 100% charge. The EPA changed their sticker to show an average of 80% and 100% charge modes. 84 is a much more meaningful number since it is potential range if/when you need it, rather than an average of selectable settings.

That said, to answer your question, I highly doubt that the 2014 will be a whole new model Leaf. I fully expect that going from 2013-2014 will be like going from 2011-2012. In other words, maybe a few new options, but really the same car. I'm personally betting on 2016 for the new Leaf (based on battery progress), although I'm hoping for 2015, since that's when my lease is up.

 

[Drivesolo]

Most Japanese manufactures run an existing chassis for 5 years. Chances are that a 2nd gen Leaf (ZE1?) won't be available until late 2015 or later. I'd think that to incorporate a larger/different configuration battery the chassis would need to be revised significantly. This might be more of an effort for an EV in comparison to ICE vehicle where a whole new chassis can be released into production and the previous chassis's engine is used for it. Nissan will most likely not to do a complete chassis design w/o extending the range in a significant way which would mean a larger batt.

 

[Stanton]

Most Japanese manufactures run an existing chassis for 5 years. Chances are that a 2nd gen Leaf (ZE1?) won't be available until late 2015 or later. I'd think that to incorporate a larger/different configuration battery the chassis would need to be revised significantly. This might be more of an effort for an EV in comparison to ICE vehicle where a whole new chassis can be released into production and the previous chassis's engine is used for it. Nissan will most likely not to do a complete chassis design w/o extending the range in a significant way which would mean a larger batt.

Are you forgetting the possibility of a higher capacity battery chemistry/technology? Nissan put a lot of effort into establishing a "standard EV platform", and for that I reason I think it's possible the Leaf (or subsequent versions of it) will never have a larger battery cage/pack (whatever you want to call it). That sets certain size/weight parameters for which future battery modules can be (retro) fitted into the platform. In other words, the capacity/range may go up, but not because of a bigger (physical) battery pack.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

Most Japanese manufactures run an existing chassis for 5 years. Chances are that a 2nd gen Leaf (ZE1?) won't be available until late 2015 or later. I'd think that to incorporate a larger/different configuration battery the chassis would need to be revised significantly. This might be more of an effort for an EV in comparison to ICE vehicle where a whole new chassis can be released into production and the previous chassis's engine is used for it. Nissan will most likely not to do a complete chassis design w/o extending the range in a significant way which would mean a larger batt.

Are you forgetting the possibility of a higher capacity battery chemistry/technology? Nissan put a lot of effort into establishing a "standard EV platform", and for that I reason I think it's possible the Leaf (or subsequent versions of it) will never have a larger battery cage/pack (whatever you want to call it). That sets certain size/weight parameters for which future battery modules can be (retro) fitted into the platform. In other words, the capacity/range may go up, but not because of a bigger (physical) battery pack.

Good point. Interestingly, the 2013 Leaf has smaller battery modules housed in the same size envelope. If that trend were to continue, eventually you could even fit more of the modules within said envelope. Add that to a better chemistry, and it could be a significant gain.

 

[Nubo]

Given the U.S. mindset that considers "real" range to be highway cruise (with the speed limit viewed as minimum speed), might a significant aerodynamic makeover give the biggest "bang for the buck" for range improvement? Could the LEAF reasonably be restyled to get EPA 100? What kind of Cd would that take, compared to present model?

 

[Drivesolo]

Are you forgetting the possibility of a higher capacity battery chemistry/technology? Nissan put a lot of effort into establishing a "standard EV platform", and for that I reason I think it's possible the Leaf (or subsequent versions of it) will never have a larger battery cage/pack (whatever you want to call it). That sets certain size/weight parameters for which future battery modules can be (retro) fitted into the platform. In other words, the capacity/range may go up, but not because of a bigger (physical) battery pack.

The OP was inquiring about news on a possible 2nd gen Leaf w/ 100 mile range that would be available by 2014. Yes, new battery chemistry will eventually replace the LiFePO4, but that will take even longer than waiting for a new chassis ~2015 w/ a larger batt. Nissan's battery plants are dedicated to process of producing the current cells used in the Leaf and the near future vehicles that will share the same platform.

 

[KJD]

What is going to be in the 2014 model year is pure speculation at this point.

The 5 year model cycle is fine for a normal gas car, a lot of the car companies seem to follow that rule. The EV market is changing so rapidly, Nissan may need to shorten that to stay viable. Just look at how many cars with plugs we have now compared to end of 2010 when the first LEAF came out.

We do know that range is the biggest complaint on the existing LEAF. We also know that Nissan is constantly working on the next gen of batteries, so it would not surprise me at all to see a next gen LEAF before current gen is 5 years old.

 

[TonyWilliams]

Nissan will not likely increase the range much over 100 miles on the LEAF, but instead will use a smaller / lighter / more efficient / cheaper battery to offset the loss of the $7500 tax credit in the coming years, so that the LEAF can still be sold for substantially the same price.

Nissan is actively exploring optional bigger batteries for the trunk area to extend range at optional extra cost.

 

[ERG4ALL]

My hope is that because Nissan moved the on-board charger from behind the rear seat to under the hood that we may see some battery options like the Tesla. It would seem possible that extra batteries could now be put behind the rear seat for say a 25% range improvement. That could put the real EPA range at right about 100 miles and would not require any change in battery chemistry. Also, because the batteries are now made in Tenn. and because Carlos Ghosn has stated that the $6,000 price drop will not be the last, this may be feasible and affordable.

 

[EdmondLeaf]

2014 Nissan Leaf facelift

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAF81rvbv7c

 

[evnow]

It is an interesting topic.

First thing I'd think about is Infiniti EV. Will that have multiple battery packs of different sizes ? Will it have the new NMC battery ? Nissan might decide to get the newest larger battery in Infiniti, rather than Leaf.

So, I think what is likely to happen is a MY14 Leaf with not much change. That MY14 might even come much earlier, like all other models, in the fall of thsi year. Then comes, Inifiniti EV with say 2 battery packs - 24 & 48 kwh, in Dec 2013. Leaf gets those battery packs with MY15 in fall of 2014.

I'd laso look for a BEVx Leaf and some plugin hybrids (Altima, Juke, Murano ?) from Nissan in MY15. No major manufacturer will leave a big segment of the plugin market uncovered.

 

[KJD]

Nissan is actively exploring optional bigger batteries for the trunk area to extend range at optional extra cost.

This would help Nissan expand the market appeal of the LEAF for sure.

I think that Tesla really did a great thing here that Nissan should copy. Offer the battery pack in 3 different sizes and let the customer decide how much range they are willing to pay for.

Last I heard the largest battery option was by far the biggest seller for Tesla. I am sure it is also the most profitable for the company.

 

[TomT]

Having just commenced manufacturing at the new plants, my guess is that you will not see any significant changes until the 2015 model year when there will be a serious refresh, not just cosmetic changes as in the 2013... Even then, I question whether or not there will actually be any significant battery or TMS changes to the Leaf... Frankly, I no longer have the confidence in Nissan that I did earlier on...

 

[Hartleaf]

I predict a larger pack option will be announced within 6 months. Failing this Nissan Leaf sales will dry up. They need to attract the next tranche of customers who need the slightly extended range of 120 miles at 100% charge. This may now be possible as they have dropped 170lbs in weight and freed space towards the rear of the pack and reduced the size of the individual cells and added a 6kw 32amp charger. So everything appears to be in place. I will upgrade my 2011 leaf to the next electric car only when I see a 120 mile range.

 

[TomT]

120 REAL WORLD miles would not be a slight range extension, it would be at least a 50% bigger pack. And to that you have to factor in the range DECREASE caused by the increased weight of the larger pack...

I predict a larger pack option will be announced within 6 months. Failing this Nissan Leaf sales will dry up. They need to attract the next tranche of customers who need the slightly extended range of 120 miles at 100% charge. This may now be possible as they have dropped 170lbs in weight and freed space towards the rear of the pack and reduced the size of the individual cells and added a 6kw 32amp charger. So everything appears to be in place. I will upgrade my 2011 leaf to the next electric car only when I see a 120 mile range.

 

[dgpcolorado]

Given the U.S. mindset that considers "real" range to be highway cruise (with the speed limit viewed as minimum speed), might a significant aerodynamic makeover give the biggest "bang for the buck" for range improvement? Could the LEAF reasonably be restyled to get EPA 100? What kind of Cd would that take, compared to present model?

Interesting question. If the current LEAF gets 84 miles at 62 mph (100 kph) in mild temperatures (with a new battery) what would it take to get 100 miles with the same drive train? I believe that the Cd of the 2011/2012 LEAF is 0.29 (and the 2013 Cd is reportedly 0.28). The drag equation is:

R = ½pCAv²

R = drag
p = density of fluid
C = coefficient of drag
A = cross sectional area in direction of motion, aka "projected area"
v = velocity

so Cd is proportional to drag. Increasing range from 84 miles to 100 miles would take a lowering of the Cd from 0.29 to 0.24 if all else was equal, so far as I can tell. Reducing the cross sectional area would help also, so it doesn't all have to be Cd. (That's one of the reasons why a much smaller car like the Honda Fit can get a better range with a smaller battery pack than the LEAF.)

 

[surfingslovak]

Yes, new battery chemistry will eventually replace the LiFePO4, but that will take even longer than waiting for a new chassis ~2015 w/ a larger batt.

I'm not sure if this was a conscious mistake or a typo, but the LEAF is presently using LiMnO4 or LMO for short. Although they might be considering phosphate-based chemistries, it would be more logical if they moved to NMC next. There were some press reports on that too, but I'm not sure how much faith to put into those.

 

[evnow]

I predict a larger pack option will be announced within 6 months. Failing this Nissan Leaf sales will dry up. They need to attract the next tranche of customers who need the slightly extended range of 120 miles at 100% charge.

Are they willing to pay 50% more money ? May be Nissan wants to get them to buy Infiniti EV instead, anyway.

I think in the short/medium term, their needs are easier to meet with a BEVx than an EV with a much larger price.

 

[scottf200]

I predict a larger pack option will be announced within 6 months. Failing this Nissan Leaf sales will dry up. They need to attract the next tranche of customers who need the slightly extended range of 120 miles at 100% charge. This may now be possible as they have dropped 170lbs in weight and freed space towards the rear of the pack and reduced the size of the individual cells and added a 6kw 32amp charger. So everything appears to be in place. I will upgrade my 2011 leaf to the next electric car only when I see a 120 mile range.

It seems like everyone is jumping on the PHEV bandwagon so I think you are right that they better get a bit over that 100 true mile mark or they may be in trouble. Seems like a lot of folks (real world need or not) are more comfortable with the PHEV. 100+ true BEV miles may make them comfortable to your point. (not me but Tesla ranges would make me comfortable).

See this being the latest PHEV from today:
Volkswagen To Produce Plug-In Hybrid Golf In 2014
http://insideevs.com/volkswagen-to-produce-plug-in-hybrid-golf-in-2014/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Here is EVNows list/table of PHEVs (not including recent announcements):
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6715" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Ford is realizing that their BEV even with TMS and other things is not selling.
Ford Doesn’t Expect Focus Electric Sales to Increase by Much in 2013
http://insideevs.com/ford-doesnt-expect-focus-electric-sales-to-increase-by-much-in-2013/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;