Why the LEAF Gen 2 and not the 220 miles Tesla Model 3?

[edatoakrun]

As I posted last August:

...Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.

If anyone is actually considering both BEVS, find your present post-incentive three-year lease costs for both vehicles, and post them on this thread.

 

[tattoogunman]

if I can get a new Leaf for $5000 or less than a Model 3 (that won't even be available to someone like me for probably another year or two), that money savings can negate a 70 mile loss.

For you, sure.
But the LEAF history says you will be buying another car in 5-8 years, and then the $5k savings will turn out to be one lousy deal.

I try to not be penny wise and pound foolish. YMMV
And perhaps in 3 years or so, a $10k, 40 kWh LEAF that does not have a magically disappearing battery may be available off-lease. I'd still hesitate if I lived in TX, but it could be a good buy for cooler parts of the country.

Very possibly, but most (not all obviously) people seem to rotate vehicles every 3-5 years anyway, so that issue could very well be moot for many people. You're also assuming that the Tesla (pick your model) will be any more reliable in the long term than the Leaf. Outside of the Leaf's known battery issues, I haven't really read of there being many other significant issues with them. Tesla's batteries seem to be good (I have heard of a few failures, but they are far and few between), but the rest of the car seems to have significant issues when you research all of the various problems people have with their S and X models when it comes to build quality, etc. You also have to factor in that Tesla is pretty protective of their parts and they also seem to cost more - you can't just go to your local dealer to get a replacement part.

Like others have said, the Tesla is marketed as a high end sedan similar to BMW, etc. and like those cars, expect basic repairs to be higher. Obviously only time will tell for sure on any of these cars. I'm also not convinced Tesla is going to succeed in the long term as a car company, that's just me

 

[DanCar]

As I posted last August:

...Back on-topic.

The Leaf is a five door, mid-sized, mid-priced car with much greater utility than the model 3.

The model three is designed to be, and will be promoted as, a premium sports sedan, a completely different market segment.

The total cost of ownership for a LEAF will likely be about half that of a model 3.

If you are considering both of these BEVs as your next car, you would seem to not know what you want in a vehicle, or how much you want to pay.

If anyone is actually considering both BEVS, find your present post-incentive three-year lease costs for both vehicles, and post them on this thread.

Your assuming that a vehicle purchase is a rational decision. For many it is an emotional decision.

 

[jlv]

I was watching an interview with some Nissan engineers and they said that they have millions of miles worth of drive data from the first gen Leaf and made the gen 2 accordingly. Another words, the increased range, while less than the Tesla, is still more than enough for the average person's day to day driving which was the goal. How many people do road tips across the country often enough that 150 miles is not enough range?

That sounds suspiciously like the same thinking that got to the "factor of three safety margin" for the O-ring in the Space Shuttle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_Space_Shuttle_program#Accidents, Re: Challenger disaster).

Yes, their data shows mostly short trips in first gen LEAF. Is that actually a surprise? That's what the car does best. That doesn't mean that's all people what the car to do.

FWIW, I've put 30,000 miles on my LEAF in just over 3/ 1/2 years, at the rate of about 25 miles/workday. I'm sure the data says that's all I drive. Meanwhile, in just about 9 months, I've put 15,000 miles on the S.

 

[dgpcolorado]

...The tax incentive should be considered for any cost calculation as well. If you don't currently have a reservation you will not get the full credit on the Model 3. You SHOULD be able to get the full credit on the 2019 Leaf with the 60 kWhr battery. Lower Sticker Price + Deeper Dealer/Manufacturer discounts + Larger tax credit = more than enough for a new battery or two.

That's all well and good if one qualifies for most or all of the federal tax credit — not everyone does (I don't, for example).


I find it hard to accept that buying a Tesla, even the lower-priced Model 3, is a cost-effective transportation choice. There are way less expensive alternatives for getting around. Assuming that one is willing to drive an ICEV. For those who want to go ICE-free — for whatever reason — and don't have reasonable public transportation or alternative (bicycle, walking) options, Tesla is the only reasonable option at present. If one can afford it.

Even a new LEAF 2 isn't really a cost-effective transportation choice, although it is cheaper than the Model 3. However, a used LEAF certainly can be, although it will need to be backed up with another longer range car, presumably an ICEV.

Driving a Tesla, especially as an "only car," is a lot of fun. But it sure isn't inexpensive. Nor was driving my first gen LEAF! I did it because I wanted to drive electric on sunpower and was willing to pay the huge cost.

 

[SageBrush]

"Very possibly, but most (not all obviously) people seem to rotate vehicles every 3-5 years anyway, so that issue could very well be moot for many people. "

I don't know about "most," and I certainly do not know which groups are included. Moreover, I'll presume you are a person and not "most" until told otherwise. One thing is for sure: LEAF depreciation does not follow the curve of most ICEV's, so the entire argument is specious.

 

[webb14leafs]

...The tax incentive should be considered for any cost calculation as well. If you don't currently have a reservation you will not get the full credit on the Model 3. You SHOULD be able to get the full credit on the 2019 Leaf with the 60 kWhr battery. Lower Sticker Price + Deeper Dealer/Manufacturer discounts + Larger tax credit = more than enough for a new battery or two.

That's all well and good if one qualifies for most or all of the federal tax credit — not everyone does (I don't, for example).


I find it hard to accept that buying a Tesla, even the lower-priced Model 3, is a cost-effective transportation choice. There are way less expensive alternatives for getting around. Assuming that one is willing to drive an ICEV. For those who want to go ICE-free — for whatever reason — and don't have reasonable public transportation or alternative (bicycle, walking) options, Tesla is the only reasonable option at present. If one can afford it.

Even a new LEAF 2 isn't really a cost-effective transportation choice, although it is cheaper than the Model 3. However, a used LEAF certainly can be, although it will need to be backed up with another longer range car, presumably an ICEV.

Driving a Tesla, especially as an "only car," is a lot of fun. But it sure isn't inexpensive. Nor was driving my first gen LEAF! I did it because I wanted to drive electric on sunpower and was willing to pay the huge cost.

The point of the thread is comparing the Leaf 2 to the Model 3. Not comparing EVs to riding a bicycle. Of course there are cheaper ways to travel. I bought a used Leaf and it's AWESOME for ME.

 

[SageBrush]

If you don't have a reservation now the Model 3, you probably decided 18 months ago you do not want this car now.

A LEAF can be a fine local car, even with it's battery wart. No LEAF can replace a general purpose ICEV that is expected to be able to travel 200+ miles per trip for a decade or two.

 

[SageBrush]

If you don't have a reservation now for the Model 3, you probably decided 18 months ago you do not want this car now.

A LEAF can be a fine local car, even with it's battery wart. No LEAF can replace a general purpose ICEV or a Tesla that is expected to be able to travel 200+ miles per trip for a decade or two.

 

[tattoogunman]

I was watching an interview with some Nissan engineers and they said that they have millions of miles worth of drive data from the first gen Leaf and made the gen 2 accordingly. Another words, the increased range, while less than the Tesla, is still more than enough for the average person's day to day driving which was the goal. How many people do road tips across the country often enough that 150 miles is not enough range?

That sounds suspiciously like the same thinking that got to the "factor of three safety margin" for the O-ring in the Space Shuttle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_Space_Shuttle_program#Accidents, Re: Challenger disaster).

Yes, their data shows mostly short trips in first gen LEAF. Is that actually a surprise? That's what the car does best. That doesn't mean that's all people what the car to do.

FWIW, I've put 30,000 miles on my LEAF in just over 3/ 1/2 years, at the rate of about 25 miles/workday. I'm sure the data says that's all I drive. Meanwhile, in just about 9 months, I've put 15,000 miles on the S.

Absolutely, but that data and your own stated driving habit of 25 miles for a workday is about what the "average" person drives in a given day (give or take). Therefore, 150 miles total range is more than enough for the average person. Sure, you want to drive from Seattle to Argentina, you're going to have a rough time of it, but that's going to be the case regardless.

 

[tattoogunman]

...The tax incentive should be considered for any cost calculation as well. If you don't currently have a reservation you will not get the full credit on the Model 3. You SHOULD be able to get the full credit on the 2019 Leaf with the 60 kWhr battery. Lower Sticker Price + Deeper Dealer/Manufacturer discounts + Larger tax credit = more than enough for a new battery or two.

That's all well and good if one qualifies for most or all of the federal tax credit — not everyone does (I don't, for example).


I find it hard to accept that buying a Tesla, even the lower-priced Model 3, is a cost-effective transportation choice. There are way less expensive alternatives for getting around. Assuming that one is willing to drive an ICEV. For those who want to go ICE-free — for whatever reason — and don't have reasonable public transportation or alternative (bicycle, walking) options, Tesla is the only reasonable option at present. If one can afford it.

Even a new LEAF 2 isn't really a cost-effective transportation choice, although it is cheaper than the Model 3. However, a used LEAF certainly can be, although it will need to be backed up with another longer range car, presumably an ICEV.

Driving a Tesla, especially as an "only car," is a lot of fun. But it sure isn't inexpensive. Nor was driving my first gen LEAF! I did it because I wanted to drive electric on sunpower and was willing to pay the huge cost.

I tend to agree with this and in my own personal opinion, I think people overstate their overall cost savings going EV. Take me, I drive a second hand Fiat 500 that I got for around ten grand used. I get 36-38mpg and I'm only averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of $400 a year in gas (I obviously do not drive much). I do my own work on my car and in the three years I've owned it, It's cost me less than $2000 to own, operate, fuel, and maintain. The few times I've tried getting an EV, my insurance quote alone was nearly $1000 more a year than what I'm paying now (that's in part to living in a high insurance cost area, bad credit, and a few no fault claims). I'd save a few bucks in gas and the one oil change I have to do a year, but that would be negated by my increased insurance cost. That insurance was also on a used Leaf and Volt, it would be higher than that if I got a new one. I'm not a representative sample of the average driver and I do understand that, so don't get me wrong. I do know people who are able to save significant amounts of money by not having to buy gas due to the amount of driving they do, but I don't fit into that camp. I'm still committed to making the switch in the future, but it's going to have to be under the right circumstances

 

[tattoogunman]

"Very possibly, but most (not all obviously) people seem to rotate vehicles every 3-5 years anyway, so that issue could very well be moot for many people. "

I don't know about "most," and I certainly do not know which groups are included. Moreover, I'll presume you are a person and not "most" until told otherwise. One thing is for sure: LEAF depreciation does not follow the curve of most ICEV's, so the entire argument is specious.

I was a bit off - every statistic that I can find shows that the current average length of vehicle ownership in the U.S. around six years for a new car and five years for a used. Still, I'm not off by that much. I'm definitely not "most" since I'm a poor bloke and cannot afford any of the current crop of new EVs, regardless of who makes them. I've tried getting into a used Leaf and Volt, but as I said in another post, the insurance increase I would face alone made the purchase prohibitive. I would also be paranoid about the Leaf's battery going out on me and I wouldn't be in a position to pay for a replacement I still want to go EV at some point, but it's going to be a few years down the road once when/if my situation improves.

 

[Oils4AsphaultOnly]

I was watching an interview with some Nissan engineers and they said that they have millions of miles worth of drive data from the first gen Leaf and made the gen 2 accordingly. Another words, the increased range, while less than the Tesla, is still more than enough for the average person's day to day driving which was the goal. How many people do road tips across the country often enough that 150 miles is not enough range?

That sounds suspiciously like the same thinking that got to the "factor of three safety margin" for the O-ring in the Space Shuttle (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criticism_of_the_Space_Shuttle_program#Accidents, Re: Challenger disaster).

Yes, their data shows mostly short trips in first gen LEAF. Is that actually a surprise? That's what the car does best. That doesn't mean that's all people what the car to do.

FWIW, I've put 30,000 miles on my LEAF in just over 3/ 1/2 years, at the rate of about 25 miles/workday. I'm sure the data says that's all I drive. Meanwhile, in just about 9 months, I've put 15,000 miles on the S.

Absolutely, but that data and your own stated driving habit of 25 miles for a workday is about what the "average" person drives in a given day (give or take). Therefore, 150 miles total range is more than enough for the average person. Sure, you want to drive from Seattle to Argentina, you're going to have a rough time of it, but that's going to be the case regardless.

I think you're missing jlv's point. The leaf statistic is simply confirmation bias, since he/she used it only for what it was capable of, and NOT what he actually needed from a car.

With the 30kwh leaf's degradation being so bad in warm weather, now you have to factor in location into your purchase decision as well. Yes your average commute might be under 40 miles per day, and the leaf will do that job just fine, even if its batteries degrade too quickly. But would you trust it on a weekend trip to visit a friend just 100 miles away (after just 2 years of degradation)?

I used to think that it would do the job just fine (used to have a 2013), but after suffering 10% degradation after just 1 year!, I'm not so sure anymore. I honestly can NOT recommend the 40kwh leaf until we know more about their battery warranty and degradation in warm regions. I've been telling people to either splurge on a model 3, or get a used leaf [for] commuting and keep their gas car for the occasional trips.

 

[SageBrush]

I used to think that it would do the job just fine (used to have a 2013), but after suffering 10% degradation after just 1 year!, I'm not so sure anymore. I honestly can NOT recommend the 40kwh leaf until we know more about their battery warranty and degradation in warm regions. I've been telling people to either splurge on a model 3, or get a used leaf [for] commuting and keep their gas car for the occasional trips.

Exactly

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

With evolving tech, it would be quite normal to change cars on a much shorter cycle. I know people who changed Teslas after 3 years... I barely make what they lost on those transactions...

Someone said the main difference is the range and that is highly subjective since the main difference to me is price. Sure I want 500 mile range like everyone else but not going to eat top ramen for the next 15 years because of it.

So lets do a reality check; No one in their right mind can possibly think the LEAF will be $5,000 less. I say triple that and I wont be right either but I WILL BE much closer. There will be no 220 mile T3's that qualify for the full tax break. So even if we started with an even slate; T3 basic (non black) against SV with tech; The LEAF starts out $3750 cheaper. Now we get evaluate our negotiation skills. Tesla? ZERO... so much for thinking you are donald trump! (maybe not such a bad aspiration to fail ...)

LEAF; well, we all get the $1000 so stop there? LOL! I am member of discount club provided thru my employer and using 2017 LEAF SV as a guide, I should get about $3400 discounted so that is $8100. So think that you can do better? Probably. As we all know, some areas will just be dumping them at cut rate prices and we will ladle state incentives on top of that. In my case, tax waiver but will only be on the "down payment" and financed part of the lease. So using the published Nissan lease guidelines with the uhhhh... $11250 residual or so, The tax benefit covers the other $25000 so that is another 2300 off.

But the real benefit is Nissan's ridiculous lease terms. Not sure about that pack? Well, don't blame you. We all know it will degrade but will it degrade 2011ish or 2015ish? That is the question. A 3 year lease should be more than enough time to find out.


But the T3 comes with SC access and that cannot be overstated. I know a few will say "ain't got but 2 and they waaaaay over there" and that is me! But I also see that nearly a dozen coming to my region by the end of this year including 5 either opened or under construction. So that is huge.

Oh, I forgot to mention NCTC which will be available thru mid 2019 and that 2 years of free charging is well, there for the taking. I use it.... a bit here and there. Assuming EVgo online is complete (not sure I would bet money on that) and a $19.95 a month subscription with 20 cents a minute, I blew thru $1227 of electrons from them.

They were one of the 5 networks I used last year.

 

[SageBrush]

...The tax incentive should be considered for any cost calculation as well. If you don't currently have a reservation you will not get the full credit on the Model 3. You SHOULD be able to get the full credit on the 2019 Leaf with the 60 kWhr battery. Lower Sticker Price + Deeper Dealer/Manufacturer discounts + Larger tax credit = more than enough for a new battery or two.

That's all well and good if one qualifies for most or all of the federal tax credit — not everyone does (I don't, for example).


I find it hard to accept that buying a Tesla, even the lower-priced Model 3, is a cost-effective transportation choice. There are way less expensive alternatives for getting around. Assuming that one is willing to drive an ICEV. For those who want to go ICE-free — for whatever reason — and don't have reasonable public transportation or alternative (bicycle, walking) options, Tesla is the only reasonable option at present. If one can afford it.

Even a new LEAF 2 isn't really a cost-effective transportation choice, although it is cheaper than the Model 3. However, a used LEAF certainly can be, although it will need to be backed up with another longer range car, presumably an ICEV.

Driving a Tesla, especially as an "only car," is a lot of fun. But it sure isn't inexpensive. Nor was driving my first gen LEAF! I did it because I wanted to drive electric on sunpower and was willing to pay the huge cost.

I tend to agree with this and in my own personal opinion, I think people overstate their overall cost savings going EV. Take me, I drive a second hand Fiat 500 that I got for around ten grand used. I get 36-38mpg and I'm only averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of $400 a year in gas (I obviously do not drive much). I do my own work on my car and in the three years I've owned it, It's cost me less than $2000 to own, operate, fuel, and maintain. The few times I've tried getting an EV, my insurance quote alone was nearly $1000 more a year than what I'm paying now (that's in part to living in a high insurance cost area, bad credit, and a few no fault claims). I'd save a few bucks in gas and the one oil change I have to do a year, but that would be negated by my increased insurance cost. That insurance was also on a used Leaf and Volt, it would be higher than that if I got a new one. I'm not a representative sample of the average driver and I do understand that, so don't get me wrong. I do know people who are able to save significant amounts of money by not having to buy gas due to the amount of driving they do, but I don't fit into that camp. I'm still committed to making the switch in the future, but it's going to have to be under the right circumstances

Are you getting quotes for the same policy provisions on the EV ?
FWIW, I have not noticed any difference in cost between my LEAF and the ICEV's I have insured except the expected differences related to car size. Our LEAF costs $15 a month for a 1M liability policy and UI, but without comp or collision.

As I mentioned earlier, I personally would avoid the LEAF if I lived in hot Texas, but in my cool Colorado climate I think it will work out to be an inexpensive second car that is only used only for local chores. An EV as a full-fledged ICE replacement is a different cost bracket, perhaps on par with average cost ICEV but almost certainly more expensive than the best value ICEV. E.g., my current general purpose car is Prius Prime that cost me $17k after federal and state tax credits and gets 100 MPG + the minimal cost of PV electricity. That is about $8k more than the Model 3 will cost me, and it will carry a substantial risk of lasting considerably less time than the Prius Prime and/or having more expensive repairs. Since my annual petrol bill is about $250, the Model 3 is certainly more expensive.

Not expensive per se, just more than the best value alternative.
Pro tip: EVs are a better cost case when combined with inexpensive DIY PV.

 

[keydiver]

There will be no 220 mile T3's that qualify for the full tax break.

Sorry, but I'm going to have to disagree with that, or at least caution you against spreading such baseless rumors/opinions. My Model 3 configurator says "Early 2018" for a Standard Range Model 3. At the SOONEST, Tesla will sell the 200,000th car in the 1st quarter of 2018, which means that every Model 3 shipped until 6/30/2018 will qualify for the full tax credit. I think "Early 2018" means before 07/01/2018, and yes, I do hold out hope that Telsa's Model 3 production is ramping up quickly now. Only Tesla knows how close they are to the 200,000th car sold, everything else is speculation. If production doesn't ramp up so quickly, or Tesla decides to hold back shipping near the end of the 1st quarter, the 200,000th car won't ship until after 03/31/18, which would extend things another 3 months.
Back on topic: For me there is no choice. In south Florida, the Leaf is a total dud. Even their "improved chemistry" Lizard battery is taking a beating, whereas my Model S battery has only lost 0.4% in 26,000 miles and 2+ years. With Nissan's track record in warmer climates, I can't believe how readily people advocate that anyone buy one, without knowing their location and usage. To be truly practical and sustainable, I don't believe an EV should be disposable after 5 years, but that's exactly what they are when their resell value is less than the cost of a new battery.

 

[tattoogunman]

That's all well and good if one qualifies for most or all of the federal tax credit — not everyone does (I don't, for example).


I find it hard to accept that buying a Tesla, even the lower-priced Model 3, is a cost-effective transportation choice. There are way less expensive alternatives for getting around. Assuming that one is willing to drive an ICEV. For those who want to go ICE-free — for whatever reason — and don't have reasonable public transportation or alternative (bicycle, walking) options, Tesla is the only reasonable option at present. If one can afford it.

Even a new LEAF 2 isn't really a cost-effective transportation choice, although it is cheaper than the Model 3. However, a used LEAF certainly can be, although it will need to be backed up with another longer range car, presumably an ICEV.

Driving a Tesla, especially as an "only car," is a lot of fun. But it sure isn't inexpensive. Nor was driving my first gen LEAF! I did it because I wanted to drive electric on sunpower and was willing to pay the huge cost.

I tend to agree with this and in my own personal opinion, I think people overstate their overall cost savings going EV. Take me, I drive a second hand Fiat 500 that I got for around ten grand used. I get 36-38mpg and I'm only averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of $400 a year in gas (I obviously do not drive much). I do my own work on my car and in the three years I've owned it, It's cost me less than $2000 to own, operate, fuel, and maintain. The few times I've tried getting an EV, my insurance quote alone was nearly $1000 more a year than what I'm paying now (that's in part to living in a high insurance cost area, bad credit, and a few no fault claims). I'd save a few bucks in gas and the one oil change I have to do a year, but that would be negated by my increased insurance cost. That insurance was also on a used Leaf and Volt, it would be higher than that if I got a new one. I'm not a representative sample of the average driver and I do understand that, so don't get me wrong. I do know people who are able to save significant amounts of money by not having to buy gas due to the amount of driving they do, but I don't fit into that camp. I'm still committed to making the switch in the future, but it's going to have to be under the right circumstances

Are you getting quotes for the same policy provisions on the EV ?
FWIW, I have not noticed any difference in cost between my LEAF and the ICEV's I have insured except the expected differences related to car size. Our LEAF costs $15 a month for a 1M liability policy and UI, but without comp or collision.

As I mentioned earlier, I personally would avoid the LEAF if I lived in hot Texas, but in my cool Colorado climate I think it will work out to be an inexpensive second car that is only used only for local chores. An EV as a full-fledged ICE replacement is a different cost bracket, perhaps on par with average cost ICEV but almost certainly more expensive than the best value ICEV. E.g., my current general purpose car is Prius Prime that cost me $17k after federal and state tax credits and gets 100 MPG + the minimal cost of PV electricity. That is about $8k more than the Model 3 will cost me, and it will carry a substantial risk of lasting considerably less time than the Prius Prime and/or having more expensive repairs. Since my annual petrol bill is about $250, the Model 3 is certainly more expensive.

Not expensive per se, just more than the best value alternative.
Pro tip: EVs are a better cost case when combined with inexpensive DIY PV.

That was from three different insurance companies and I stopped after three since they were consistent. I live in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area which has a higher than average insurance cost because of how stupid people drive out here and the fact that this area is usually in the top 10 accident prone areas in various yearly studies. If I were to move out of this area to other cities in Texas, it would drop anywhere from $300 - $500 overnight. I can't move right now, so it's moot and when I do move, it's going to be out of this state altogether

But like you, my current ICEV is so cheap to operate that it's hard for me to justify the switch except for the fact that I simply want to. If I'm ever back in a situation where I'm driving 15K to 20K miles a year again, that would obviously make the switch easier to justify. I do agree with the Texas climate not being suited for the first gen Leaf, but other cars seem to be holding up well (Volt, etc.). Frankly, I'm not in a financial situation to switch right now anyway, so this is all speculative when and if I'm ever able to afford the switch

 

[tattoogunman]

There will be no 220 mile T3's that qualify for the full tax break.

Sorry, but I'm going to have to disagree with that, or at least caution you against spreading such baseless rumors/opinions. My Model 3 configurator says "Early 2018" for a Standard Range Model 3. At the SOONEST, Tesla will sell the 200,000th car in the 1st quarter of 2018, which means that every Model 3 shipped until 6/30/2018 will qualify for the full tax credit. I think "Early 2018" means before 07/01/2018, and yes, I do hold out hope that Telsa's Model 3 production is ramping up quickly now. Only Tesla knows how close they are to the 200,000th car sold, everything else is speculation. If production doesn't ramp up so quickly, or Tesla decides to hold back shipping near the end of the 1st quarter, the 200,000th car won't ship until after 03/31/18, which would extend things another 3 months.
Back on topic: For me there is no choice. In south Florida, the Leaf is a total dud. Even their "improved chemistry" Lizard battery is taking a beating, whereas my Model S battery has only lost 0.4% in 26,000 miles and 2+ years. With Nissan's track record in warmer climates, I can't believe how readily people advocate that anyone buy one, without knowing their location and usage. To be truly practical and sustainable, I don't believe an EV should be disposable after 5 years, but that's exactly what they are when their resell value is less than the cost of a new battery.

So here's the question though and I'm not trying to be a jerk here - would you buy the Model 3 if the tax credit wasn't still available? From what I've seen, read, and from the people I've talked to in person, none of the Model 3s being delivered anytime soon are the base models. One guy I was talking to is paying close to $62K for his and when you're in that range, is the tax credit (assuming you're entitled to it) really a deal maker or breaker? I can't even afford to buy a $7500 car right now, let alone what any of the current stock of EVs sell for, so understand I say/ask this as a poor bloke

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

There will be no 220 mile T3's that qualify for the full tax break.

Sorry, but I'm going to have to disagree with that, or at least caution you against spreading such baseless rumors/opinions. My Model 3 configurator says "Early 2018" for a Standard Range Model 3. At the SOONEST, Tesla will sell the 200,000th car in the 1st quarter of 2018, which means that every Model 3 shipped until 6/30/2018 will qualify for the full tax credit. I think "Early 2018" means before 07/01/2018, and yes, I do hold out hope that Telsa's Model 3 production is ramping up quickly now. Only Tesla knows how close they are to the 200,000th car sold, everything else is speculation. If production doesn't ramp up so quickly, or Tesla decides to hold back shipping near the end of the 1st quarter, the 200,000th car won't ship until after 03/31/18, which would extend things another 3 months.
Back on topic: For me there is no choice. In south Florida, the Leaf is a total dud. Even their "improved chemistry" Lizard battery is taking a beating, whereas my Model S battery has only lost 0.4% in 26,000 miles and 2+ years. With Nissan's track record in warmer climates, I can't believe how readily people advocate that anyone buy one, without knowing their location and usage. To be truly practical and sustainable, I don't believe an EV should be disposable after 5 years, but that's exactly what they are when their resell value is less than the cost of a new battery.

with Q4 sales announced, its a conceivable notion that Musk might come thru with his promise to deliver as many T3's will full credit as possible. What looked like a sure bet to hit 200K before April 1 a few months ago is no longer a certainty by any measure.

Is this just ANOTHER example of Musk giving us what we need instead of what we want?