Why is the LEAF pulling away from the Volt?

[GRA]

Leaf = 100% electric, Volt does not

Which is important only to the relatively small percentage of the population who are ideological purists. [Edit: Affordable*] PHEV sales are around triple [Edit: double affordable] BEV sales in the U.S. right now, and that ratio will likely remain (barring perks like single-occupant HOV-lane access restricted to BEVs only) until [Edit: affordable] BEVs have considerably more range than they do now.

*Affordable defined as MSRP below $40k.

 

[lorenfb]

Leaf = 100% electric, Volt does not

Which is important only to the relatively small percentage of the population who are ideological purists.

Not really, as many of us Leaf owners DON'T care to have to deal with an ICE's (Volt/Prius) typical services,
e.g. oil changes, spark plugs, & etc, AND buying gasoline & using it (ethanol related problems).

 

[evnow]

Which is important only to the relatively small percentage of the population who are ideological purists..

No - we are just practical. Just need one ICE in the garage, not two.

PHEV sales are around triple BEV sales in the U.S. right now,

BTW, does 22k vs 29k look like triple to you ?

 

[davidcary]

And a big difference between PHEV options vs BEV options.

Right now in my area, I can buy a Leaf or I can get a Volt or 2 mainstream Ford options. I think I can get a PIP.

So that makes 4 times the options for PHEV. Realistic, high volume etc. When I was shopping, I looked at 4 cars - the above except the PIP. I honestly had no idealism about going without gas. If I had gotten a Cmax, the Accord would be driven less and so less gas would be used for road trips. More gas in the day to day but close to a wash.

Sure I could probably get a Focus but the car seems destined to be an orphan. And I could get a Tesla but the price category is not the same. Similar for the i3 and availability is still pretty spotty.

 

[dm33]

Leaf = 100% electric, Volt does not

PHEV sales are around triple BEV sales in the U.S. right now, and that ratio will likely remain (barring perks like single-occupant HOV-lane access restricted to BEVs only) until BEVs have considerably more range than they do now.

Source? Stats I've seen on insideEVs make them fairly close in totals, certainly no where near triple. And that includes vehicles like the Toyote PiP with its 7 mile range which seems like a stretch to even call it a PHEV. If you include regular hybrids you can make the number much more skewed towards ICEs with some electric propulsion.

Based on numbers for 2014 in the US from http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, I totaled up the counts by PHEV vs. BEV as follows,
Totaled to 29476 for PHEV, 24987 for BEV.

NIssan LEAF 12736
Model S 7400
smartED 1092
Fiat 500e 1016
Ford Focus Electric 896
Spark EV 636
Toyota Rav4 EV 546
BMW i3 347 347
Honda Fit EV 221
Mistubishi i-MiEV 97
Mercedes B-class 0

PHEVs
Prius PiP 9300
Volt 8615
Fusion Energi 6235
C-Max Energi 3928
Porsche Panamera 481
Cadillac ELR 390
Honda Accord PHV 180

I have it in a spreadsheet, but haven't found a good way to format it in a post.

 

[evnow]

I have it in a spreadsheet, but haven't found a good way to format it in a post.

I post it every month (more or less) in sales threads.

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=17469" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

Leaf = 100% electric, Volt does not

PHEV sales are around triple BEV sales in the U.S. right now, and that ratio will likely remain (barring perks like single-occupant HOV-lane access restricted to BEVs only) until BEVs have considerably more range than they do now.

Source? Stats I've seen on insideEVs make them fairly close in totals, certainly no where near triple. And that includes vehicles like the Toyote PiP with its 7 mile range which seems like a stretch to even call it a PHEV. If you include regular hybrids you can make the number much more skewed towards ICEs with some electric propulsion.

Based on numbers for 2014 in the US from http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;, I totaled up the counts by PHEV vs. BEV as follows,
Totaled to 29476 for PHEV, 24987 for BEV.

NIssan LEAF 12736
Model S 7400
smartED 1092
Fiat 500e 1016
Ford Focus Electric 896
Spark EV 636
Toyota Rav4 EV 546
BMW i3 347 347
Honda Fit EV 221
Mistubishi i-MiEV 97
Mercedes B-class 0

PHEVs
Prius PiP 9300
Volt 8615
Fusion Energi 6235
C-Max Energi 3928
Porsche Panamera 481
Cadillac ELR 390
Honda Accord PHV 180

I have it in a spreadsheet, but haven't found a good way to format it in a post.

I don't count cars like the Tesla, ELR and Panamera, because they are in a totally different price category where value for money aren't priorities, so I should have written 'affordable PHEVs vs. BEVs', as I usually do. I consider 'affordable' to be $40k or less MSRP, so that also excludes the RAV4, i3 and eventually the B-class; YMMV.

I also include the PiP even though I agree it's a feeble PHEV; feeble is better than none, and at least some of them are getting plugged in rather than just being bought for the HOV stickers - I know we've had members here talking about buying LEAFs for commutes as short as _one mile_ one way, and plugging in my normal commute if I were to drive instead of cycle and had somewhere to plug it in, the PiP is about $4 cheaper a year than the LEAF using the calculator here:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=27&t=17507" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Anyway, PiP digression aside, taking all that into account the numbers for June per insideevs.com come out to a ratio of 1.89:1, or 6,303:3,341 rather than the 3:1 I stated in the post you referred to, so my bad; I'll correct that. Counting only those affordable cars available nationwide (LEAF, Smart, FFE, PiP, Volt, Energis), the ratio looks like this 6,275:2,821 or 2.22:1.

BTW, you included all the i3s as BEVs, but the articles I've seen indicate that the majority sold so far in the U.S. have been the REx.

Edit: It will be interesting to how much the latest small offset crash test ratings,

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=17499" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and the LEAF's Poor rating and resulting loss of 'Recommended' status by CR, as well as the passing grades by the Fords and Volt, will affect sales.

 

[pkulak]

Leaf = 100% electric, Volt does not

Which is important only to the relatively small percentage of the population who are ideological purists.

Not really, as many of us Leaf owners DON'T care to have to deal with an ICE's (Volt/Prius) typical services,
e.g. oil changes, spark plugs, & etc, AND buying gasoline & using it (ethanol related problems).

And we don't want a car with the battery crammed into the passenger compartment because the motors and engine are taking up every other inch of space.

 

[GRA]

Which is important only to the relatively small percentage of the population who are ideological purists.

Not really, as many of us Leaf owners DON'T care to have to deal with an ICE's (Volt/Prius) typical services,
e.g. oil changes, spark plugs, & etc, AND buying gasoline & using it (ethanol related problems).

And we don't want a car with the battery crammed into the passenger compartment because the motors and engine are taking up every other inch of space.

That is an issue for many, but not all. As we see more cars built on platforms like VW's MQB that can handle multiple different powertrains with little or no intrusion into the passenger and/or cargo compartments, that problem will fade away.

 

[evnow]

I don't count cars like the Tesla, ELR and Panamera, because they are in a totally different price category where value for money aren't priorities, so I should have written 'affordable PHEVs vs. BEVs', as I usually do. I consider 'affordable' to be $40k or less MSRP, so that also excludes the RAV4, i3 and eventually the B-class; YMMV.

It makes zero sense to exclude 50% of serious BEVs. I might as well exclude all PHEVs with trivial (defined as < 30 miles of EV range) - which brings us back to Volt vs Leaf.

The fact is PHEVs have underperformed and BEV has outperformed what CW thought would be the case. It will only get better (or worse if you are a PHEV fan) when 200 mile BEVs come on the scene.

 

[TomT]

I wonder if the recent IIHS small overlap crash test results, where the Leaf did poorly and the Volt did well, will have any real affect on future sales...

 

[greengate]

In 2012, the Volt outsold the LEAF handily (23,461 versus 9819). In 2013, Volt held a slim lead (23,094 versus 22,610). But this year, Volt is backsliding while LEAF is still gaining: (8615 versus 12736).

Is it simply that the Volt has real competitors in its space while LEAF does not (Tesla Model S excluded)? PiP seems to be eating Volt's lunch now and the Ford Energi product sales are ramping up nicely. Is PiP winning because of the very high gas mileage and high electricity prices in CA? Prii have more utility than the Volt? No offense, but I don't quite understand the appeal of the Ford products. Default plug-ins for Ford lovers?

I do expect LEAF sales to continue to ramp up assuming 2015 battery holds up well and a refresh is coming in the next year or two.

It just seems like Volt sales are waning and I am wondering what's behind it all. And what will it take for GM to recover some momentum in the plug-in arena?

Old technology in this fast moving world plus it's still gasoline and many want to deep 6 any petroleum driven forms of transportation..which includes me. It's like eating organic food. Once there, there is no turning back. What for and why?

 

[dhanson865]

I wonder if the recent IIHS small overlap crash test results, where the Leaf did poorly and the Volt did well, will have any real affect on future sales...

There are a lot of older cars still on the road. Most of the cars I've ever driven didn't even have air bags of any kind, one didn't even have seat belts.

I'd say the Leaf is safer or as safe as my current daily driver. I know it is safer than any car I've had in the past.

I've had cars totaled before that had airbags that didn't go off (because they didn't need to go off) and even though the car was totaled I and the other drivers had zero injuries.

Personally I'm not worried about the safety of modern cars (something made after 2004). I do have a 98 SL2 I'd like to get rid of and replace with something modern. I have to assume the car I'm replacing would far as poorly or worse than a Leaf.

 

[johnrhansen]

us Nissan leaf drivers don't have to worry too much about the front impact strength of the car. We are always going slow trying to stretch out the range of the car... especially when the battery degrades!

 

[mctom987]

us Nissan leaf drivers don't have to worry too much about the front impact strength of the car. We are always going slow trying to stretch out the range of the car... especially when the battery degrades!

My girlfriend gives me a hard time for doing this. This happened today, when I was going 37MPH. Posted limit was 35MPH…

I go ~60MPH on the freeway (65MPH limit on most freeways) when possible, and in traffic I generally have 10-20 car lengths in front of me in order to minimize the need for friction braking.

I did pretty much the same on my Accord, and I got like 34MPG in it. Driving safely and driving efficiently are usually the same thing.

 

[GRA]

I don't count cars like the Tesla, ELR and Panamera, because they are in a totally different price category where value for money aren't priorities, so I should have written 'affordable PHEVs vs. BEVs', as I usually do. I consider 'affordable' to be $40k or less MSRP, so that also excludes the RAV4, i3 and eventually the B-class; YMMV.

It makes zero sense to exclude 50% of serious BEVs. I might as well exclude all PHEVs with trivial (defined as < 30 miles of EV range) - which brings us back to Volt vs Leaf.

The fact is PHEVs have underperformed and BEV has outperformed what CW thought would be the case. It will only get better (or worse if you are a PHEV fan) when 200 mile BEVs come on the scene.

We differ on whether it makes sense to exclude cars that the majority of drivers will never be able to afford. As to excluding PHEVs with trivial range, it's only trivial if your commute/daily errand driving is beyond that range. Something like 49% of the U.S. population drives 20 miles or less on a normal day, and a fair percentage can even do the majority of their driving within the PiP's anemic AER, although it does take a feather foot and no freeway driving to do it. Add workplace charging and you double the AER, using only cheap L1.

It makes little economic sense _at this time_ to buy a battery much bigger than you need for your daily driving, when the excess range for road trips is far cheaper to get using an ICE. As I've said before, a Volt is essentially a Tesla Model 3 available 7 years earlier, and with the road trip infrastructure already in place. In many ways the Fusion Energi comes even closer to the Model 3 than that, as long as its AER is adequate for your routine needs and its cargo space is acceptable. As VW and others introduce PHEVs that don't have the volume limitations of the current conversions, I expect we'll see PHEVs take an even large share, until BEVs for $35k or less with considerably more range than they have now become available, and the infrastructure for road trips is far more robust than it is now.

 

[Nubo]

us Nissan leaf drivers don't have to worry too much about the front impact strength of the car. We are always going slow trying to stretch out the range of the car... especially when the battery degrades!

My girlfriend gives me a hard time for doing this. This happened today, when I was going 37MPH. Posted limit was 35MPH…

Above the speed limit is "going slow"?

 

[minispeed]

Well I wanted a volt for a while and it was my front runner, I had decided to wait for the 2nd gen and buy one but I just went with the leaf 2 weeks ago.

The volt is still just a commuter car, it's got 4 doors and 4 seats and can* take a family, but not very comfortably. I have a 2 year old, we are planning a second and maybe even a 3rd (although the lease will be up by then). The volt would have been great for my summer drive to work, 44miles, charge at level 1 for 8-10hrs should put me full and 44 miles back. So as long as I don't need heat and I drive slow I wouldn't burn any gas. In the winter I'd be burning gas every day though. If we had that when we went out with the family we would always take the prius. By the time I got home I'd have no battery and the prius is much cheaper to run on gas. On the days that I'm off my wife can take the leaf to work, no plug there. She does 60miles round trip so she'll do it all on electricity. In the volt she would burn about the same cost in gas (regular vs premium) as a prius plug in (we didn't go with the plug in because that 11miles on electricty would have never made up for the price diff and we would have had to wait over a month to order it). I'm counting on the leaf cutting our prius gas bill down since over the last year it was the prime family car on days off. My old car was a 2000 insight.

The reason I decided that the leaf was better than waiting to see what the next volt/prius had was the addition of a quick charger (2 actually) within 10miles from my work. If there's any issues with my plug at work and I need to get home I have an option. If I drive all the way to work and as soon as I get there the wife calls with an emergency and I have to leave I have an option.

 

[DanCar]

.. I just went with the leaf 2 weeks ago. ...

Let's see some pics Would be interesting to hear you lease or buy of leaf story.

 

[johnrhansen]

It sure seems that way doesn't it?

Above the speed limit is "going slow"?[/quote]