When will LEAF sales reach 200,000?

[RegGuheert]

oh wait. I guess it does not really clarify what YTD 2014 means. at the bottom, it states page last updated may 23rd so it would have missed all the excitement...

I think it is clear. The 10,640 number is in a column with the following heading:

Sales for Quarter Ending 3-31-2014

So the total number must be through 3-31-2014. In any case, it is clear what period the 10,640 number covers. But what are they counting? Perhaps the IRS is counting the total number of LEAFS *produced* and *imported*?

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

oh wait. I guess it does not really clarify what YTD 2014 means. at the bottom, it states page last updated may 23rd so it would have missed all the excitement...

I think it is clear. The 10,640 number is in a column with the following heading:

Sales for Quarter Ending 3-31-2014

So the total number must be through 3-31-2014. In any case, it is clear what period the 10,640 number covers. But what are they counting? Perhaps the IRS is counting the total number of LEAFS *produced* and *imported*?

they must be adding fleet sales

 

[forummm]

I don't think any of the replies are quite right. According to Inside EVs, the Leaf sales have been:
2010-11: 9,674
2012: 9,819
2013: 22,610
Sum (2010-2013): 42,103

IRS (2010-2013): 55,718

Inside EVs 2014 Jan-Mar: 1252+1425+2507=5184
IRS 2014 Jan-Mar: 10,064

They can't be CARB credits--why would the federal IRS care about California CARB credits? Fleet sales should be included in the IRS and Inside EVs numbers.

 

[forummm]

But what are they counting? Perhaps the IRS is counting the total number of LEAFS *produced* and *imported*?

IRS site says "Sales"

"IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales"

 

[forummm]

The IRS numbers say that in 2013 alone, 48,512 Leafs were sold.

The IRS tally matters since they determine whether the 200,000 vehicles have been sold, and therefore whether the tax credits have started to expire.

 

[edatoakrun]

The IRS may be reporting the number of taxpayers claiming the tax credit, which significantly exceed Nissan's sales reports.

 

[forummm]

The IRS may be reporting the number of taxpayers claiming the tax credit, which significantly exceed Nissan's sales reports.

People can't be claiming tax credits for 2014 yet. But interesting idea.

 

[forummm]

More context from the IRS

http://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Plug-In-Electric-Vehicle-Credit-(IRC-30-and-IRC-30D" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false
http://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB/ar09.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[evnow]

The IRS may be reporting the number of taxpayers claiming the tax credit, which significantly exceed Nissan's sales reports.

Interesting - if that is the case - there is a very large fraud that is going on.

 

[edatoakrun]

The IRS may be reporting the number of taxpayers claiming the tax credit, which significantly exceed Nissan's sales reports.

People can't be claiming tax credits for 2014 yet. But interesting idea.

Well, the IRS could be compiling "sales" in the quarter when the credits (including prior years) are claimed.

But that would still not explain why zero LEAF sales are reported by the IRS prior to last quarter of 2012.

Nor why no reports of "sales" by manufactures other than Ford, Mercedes, and Nissan are even listed.

 

[forummm]

The IRS may be reporting the number of taxpayers claiming the tax credit, which significantly exceed Nissan's sales reports.

Interesting - if that is the case - there is a very large fraud that is going on.

I can't imagine that this is the case. On Form 8936 you have to put the VIN for the vehicle you're claiming the credit for. All the IRS has to do is ask Nissan for a list of names and VINs sold that year and match them up with the forms. Nissan has a vested interest in making sure the number of vehicles assessed towards the 200k is accurate (or at least not more than the real number).

 

[evnow]

The number of qualified vehicles sold by the reporting entity to consumers or retail dealers during the calendar quarter.

Difference is because of sale to "retailers" ?

 

[edatoakrun]

Renault-Nissan BEV sales total has reached 200k, with impressive global market share. Looks like LEAF will hit 150k very soon:

Renault-Nissan EVs have driven 4 billion kilometers and enjoy 58% of zero-emission global market share...

PARIS/YOKOHAMA (Nov. 26, 2014)—The Renault-Nissan Alliance has sold its 200,000th electric vehicle and has a leading 58% market share for zero-emission cars...

Together, Renault and Nissan EVs have driven approximately 4 billion zero-emission kilometers – enough to circle the earth 100,000 times. Renault-Nissan’s EVs represent 200 million liters of fuel saved – enough to fill about 80 Olympic-sized swimming pools. Alliance EVs also represent 450 million kg of CO2 that has not been emitted while driving.

The Alliance sold its 200,000th EV in early November, about four years after the launch of the Nissan LEAF, the world’s first mass-market electric vehicle. Nissan LEAF remains the best-selling electric vehicle in history.

From January through the first week of November of this year, the Alliance has sold about 66,500 units—an increase of about 20% from the same period last year. The Alliance sells about two out of three electric vehicles worldwide, including Twizy, Renault’s two-seater urban commuter vehicle and the Nissan e-NV200 van on sale in Europe and Japan...


Yokohama, Japan-based Nissan has sold a cumulative 148,700 units worldwide since December 2010, when Nissan LEAF went on sale. Nissan LEAF has collected industry honors including the 2011 World Car of the Year, European Car of the Year 2011 and Car of the Year Japan 2011-2012.The electric vehicle has the highest global customer satisfaction rate for any Nissan vehicle ever.

The top markets for Nissan LEAF are the United States with about 67,000 sales since its launch, Japan with about 46,500 units and Europe with about 31,000 units.

In the United States, LEAF is on track to be the top electric vehicle in 2014, outselling all other electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Sales so far this year are up 35%, and Nissan LEAF has enjoyed 21 consecutive record sales months and has already shattered its own yearly U.S. sales record with two months to go. In addition to LEAF, Nissan also sells the e-NV200 van, which went on sale in Europe in June and in Japan in October...

http://www.media.renault.com/global/en-gb/alliance/Media/PressRelease.aspx?mediaid=63469&nodeid=-1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As of today, I think it is unlikely the LEAF can overcome the current $2-$3-a-gallon gas headwind, to meet the 200 k sales projection I made in my OP below:

After hitting six-figure LEAF sales on 1/?/14 (anyone have the exact date?) time to guess how soon till that number is doubled.

Having been a little over-optimistic on the 100k sales thread:

http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=4&t=13514&start=20" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm going with a relatively conservative guess of June 21, 2015.

 

[edatoakrun]

Over 165,000 sales, as of 3/12/15:

...The Nissan LEAF is the world's best-selling all-electric vehicle amassing over 165,000 sales since its launch in 2010 and a 25% share of the EV market in Europe. To date, Nissan LEAF owners have covered more than one billion all-electric kilometres...

http://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/EU/en-gb/Media/Media.aspx?mediaid=130792" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[edatoakrun]

Worldwide sales reported as of 4/25, for the LEAF and also for #'s 2 through 10:

Pl Model Sales
1 Nissan Leaf 171.836
2 Chevrolet Volt (1) 88.105
3 Toyota Prius Plug-In 71.351
4 Tesla Model S 66.069
5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 59.552
6 Mitsubishi I-Miev (2) 31.501
7 Renault Zoe 22.755
8 BMW i3 22.655
9 BYD Qin 21.208
10 Chery QQ3 EV 20.318

http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[RegGuheert]

According to this YouTube video, worldwide LEAF sales are nearly 200,000:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRCgHmQ3mV4[/youtube]

At 0:26: "Et près de 200,000 dan le monde".

 

[dhanson865]

According to this YouTube video, worldwide LEAF sales are nearly 200,000:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRCgHmQ3mV4

At 0:26: "Et près de 200,000 dans le monde".

can't see the video in Firefox if you use the youtube code. Shows fine in Firefox if you just use a bare URL.

 

[RegGuheert]

can't see the video in Firefox if you use the youtube code. Shows fine in Firefox if you just use a bare URL.

I use Firefox and it shows up fine in both my post and in your reply to my post.

 

[tkdbrusco]

I know that this post relates to total sales, but I think the biggest question is when they hit 200K in US sales. Since the tax credits will be hugely significant to future sales, it will be an interesting shake up when we start seeing manufacturer's hitting this number and tax credits start rolling off.

 

[evnow]

With only 85k sold in the US - it is going to be a while before we get to 200k in the US. Not before Leaf 2.