What's Holding Back Electric Car Sales?

[mbender]

/small/

Pet/grammar-police peeve: the question should be, "Which car would sell better?".

Shouldn't that be "Which of the cars would sell better?". 'Better' calls for a plural for there to be a 'better' thing? I'll have to chew on whether there was an actual error in the first attempt.

'Better' calls for two and only two alternatives; 'best', three or more.
I think that in the original question, 'car' can be understood to mean 'of the following (two) cars'. Unless one is really nit-picky! LOL

Now, where were we? (observations on 'syntax' always derail the flow of semantics)

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I'll play. The 150 mile car will sell best, because in reality it's a 70-80 mile car year round for up to a decade, while the 84 mile car is only a 30-40 mile year-round car for maybe half that. If you want 84 mile cars to outsell 150 mile cars here in the U.S., they'd better sell for well under $15k. Case in point, the iMiEV, which sells now for $13k after Fed and CA. rebates (but only has a 62 mile EPA range). If Mitsubishi can't sell it in large numbers at $13k, what chance does a car with another 22 miles of nominal range have when selling for $7k more (I'm assuming you mean $20k after subsidies, or without them)? Peace of mind is critical to the average person when spending that kind of cash, and 84 miles ( a real world, no worries for years 40 miles or less with a very limited used market) doesn't provide that.

you expect a serious answer when you are using the MiEV as an example?

and i mean
MSRP = $20,000...

Considering what a roughly comparable base model gas Chevy Spark sells for and its sales totals, sure I expect a serious answer: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/08/chevrolet-spark-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.chevrolet.com/spark-fuel-efficient-car/build-your-own.html?x-zipcode=94540" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan or any BEV company would love to have those sales figures for their BEV, and that's for a car that's a sub-compact penalty box. But it can be your sole car for well under $20k and mostly under $15k, and still be working, capable of providing almost the same capability when new, and thus be useful for something besides being a boat anchor a decade from now. Can anyone make such a statement now and be certain that it'll be true, about any BEV other than a Tesla?

Ok, the thread is why are EVs not running away from the pack. I told you why. Its price.

in my scenario, I am not taking about an MiEV or a Spark (compliance car! REALLY???)

I am talking about a LEAF. Cut the price of the S trim $8,000 and put out an SV with a 48 KWH battery at its current price and see which model sells more.

it is that simple. so bringing up stats on more expensive inferior options is playing no part here.

 

[donald]

I am talking about a LEAF. Cut the price of the S trim $8,000 and put out an SV with a 48 KWH battery at its current price and see which model sells more.

The are already making a loss on Leaf. How much more loss do you think they should be making. Maybe they could just give them away, and that way they'd be quite popular then.

The corollary, then, to answer "What's holding back EV sales" is that they are not yet financially viable for the mass/lower end of the market.

 

[KJD]

There are only 2 things that are holding back Electric car sales.
1) Poor Range.
2) Lousy Charge Network.
Solve either one of these issues and sales will take off in a hurry.

 

[mbender]

There are only 2 things that are holding back Electric car sales.
1) Poor Range.
2) Lousy Charge Network.
Solve either one of these issues and sales will take off in a hurry.

Both (or all of the above) issues are being solved as we speak/write, aren't they? We here are naturally just a bit impatient, but I think sales are doing quite well, even if a bit "stealthily". Yes, they could be better, and there are bumps in the road (as it were), but I think that in the "big picture", the cat is out of the bag for good this time and rapid growth in the coming years is nearly inevitable. And this coming from someone not generally known as an optimist!

 

[GetOffYourGas]

You're the Pet Police? ;-) Anyway, few people ask me how much my Leaf cost. Everyone asks me what the range is, and they usually dismiss it once they know. I have to say it's range, followed by price, followed by range, then convenience of plugging in, then range.

I would say that today's range would work for a large number of new cars. People just don't realize it. They think they need more than they do (especially for multiple car households). As for price, TCO has been discussed in this thread already. If the 5-year TCO is lower than even an econobox (therefore much better than an actually comparable car), that means that price is not really the problem.

Both of the above can be improved by better consumer education.

And yes, of course, there are many cases where people DO need more range. There are also cases where the purchaser cannot afford the higher upfront cost, even if the alternative costs more over the long term (e.g. if you have poor credit). But I think those factors are secondary to education in today's market.

 

[GRA]

you expect a serious answer when you are using the MiEV as an example?

and i mean
MSRP = $20,000...

Considering what a roughly comparable base model gas Chevy Spark sells for and its sales totals, sure I expect a serious answer: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/08/chevrolet-spark-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.chevrolet.com/spark-fuel-efficient-car/build-your-own.html?x-zipcode=94540" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan or any BEV company would love to have those sales figures for their BEV, and that's for a car that's a sub-compact penalty box. But it can be your sole car for well under $20k and mostly under $15k, and still be working, capable of providing almost the same capability when new, and thus be useful for something besides being a boat anchor a decade from now. Can anyone make such a statement now and be certain that it'll be true, about any BEV other than a Tesla?

Ok, the thread is why are EVs not running away from the pack. I told you why. Its price.

in my scenario, I am not taking about an MiEV or a Spark (compliance car! REALLY???)

I am talking about a LEAF. Cut the price of the S trim $8,000 and put out an SV with a 48 KWH battery at its current price and see which model sells more.

it is that simple. so bringing up stats on more expensive inferior options is playing no part here.

We agree halfway, the problem is price for range, or to be more accurate, value for money. BTW, why compare an S with the current battery with an SV with double the battery; let's compare LEAF's of both trims with the same or double the battery.

If BEVs sold for $10k, many more people could fit in an 84 mile commuter/local errand runner into their budget; if they sold for $5k, lots of people could, but that's not likely. But, since you object to my using an iMiEV (which isn't a compliance car) and comparing it to a gas Spark (ditto), let's compare sales of the LEAF to a Nissan Versa, a compact penalty box. The Versa Note (hatch) has a base MSRP of $14,180 (the Versa Sedan starts at $11,990), but the top SL starts at $18,750 before options. The Versa's (all models, not just the Note) worst month of U.S. sales this year was January, when only 8,524 were sold; it's best month was March, when 15,799 were sold:

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-versa-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't think anyone would claim that the Versa is a particularly good cheap ICE (the reviews I've read say the the opposite), or that it's a nicer car to drive than a LEAF of the same trim level. Here's the always entertaining Dan Neil's opinion:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304906704579111362445386596" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So, despite the price of the LEAF (a somewhat bigger car, and much nicer to drive) after subsidies being within a few thousand of the Note, the Versa still outsells it by 3 to 5 times. Why? Value for money; the Versa can do anything that the average person expects a car to do without thinking, and the LEAF (and all other BEVs ) can't, not even the Model S with the current SC infrastructure.

 

[ydnas7]

let's compare sales of the LEAF to a Nissan Versa, a compact penalty box. The Versa Note (hatch) has a base MSRP of $14,180 (the Versa Sedan starts at $11,990), but the top SL starts at $18,750 before options. The Versa's (all models, not just the Note) worst month of U.S. sales this year was January, when only 8,524 were sold; it's best month was March, when 15,799 were sold:

Nissan LEAF is Sentra equivalent, which is better than Versa. In other markets look for the Nissan Pulsar (ie Sentra Hatch) http://www.nissan.co.uk/GB/en/vehicle/city-cars/pulsar.html#nsmn-vehicules-list" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
compares to Note
http://www.nissan.co.uk/GB/en/vehicle/city-cars/note.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[GRA]

let's compare sales of the LEAF to a Nissan Versa, a compact penalty box. The Versa Note (hatch) has a base MSRP of $14,180 (the Versa Sedan starts at $11,990), but the top SL starts at $18,750 before options. The Versa's (all models, not just the Note) worst month of U.S. sales this year was January, when only 8,524 were sold; it's best month was March, when 15,799 were sold:

Nissan LEAF is Sentra equivalent, which is better than Versa. In other markets look for the Nissan Pulsar (ie Sentra Hatch) http://www.nissan.co.uk/GB/en/vehicle/city-cars/pulsar.html#nsmn-vehicules-list" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
compares to Note
http://www.nissan.co.uk/GB/en/vehicle/city-cars/note.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Suits me; the Sentra's base MSRP varies from $15,990 to $19,640 before options, and its U.S. sales are higher than the Versa's, running from a monthly low of 9,127 in January to a high of 21,932 in May:

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2011/01/nissan-sentra-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Just makes my point even stronger that it's not just price that matters, it's value for price. Otherwise the Yugo would have been a sales champ :lol:

 

[Rebel44]

IMO, big problem (besides range and price) for most current EVs is that people dont have confidence in battery not degrading too fast. In my case, I am simply not willing to buy EV, unless its battery have TMS.

Also cars with low battery capacity lose too large % of available power to things like AC/heating. Using (for example) 5KWh for heating is huge problem for the car, when available capacity is lets say 20KWh. Compare that to the same power usage with car that have 60KWh battery, in which case its no big deal.

 

[kikngas]

Using (for example) 5KWh for heating is huge problem for the car, when available capacity is lets say 20KWh. Compare that to the same power usage with car that have 60KWh battery, in which case its no big deal.

You really think you would be comfortable in the car after 4 hair dryers have been running for an hour in there? 5kWh for heating is not realistic. And when you have a bigger battery, you're going to expect to take a longer trip. On a longer trip you are in the car for more hours and need more hours of climate control.

If you had the option of plugging in, to most any level of charging, every time you park the car, then battery capacity would be much less of an issue than it is today. But in my area (SE MN), it is very difficult to go outside of where you can charge from home.

I did successfully make a trip from Rochester MN to Wisconsin Dells WI (150 Miles), and did so using only free public charging. But I'd much rather spend something between cost of electricity and cost of gas and have some charging option every 30 miles on interstate highways. It is just too risky (and anxiety ridden) to plan to charge and find a station in use or out of order when there is no other option within your range. I don't think I'll make the trip again in the LEAF until I see more charging alternatives along the route. In fact, in Winter, or after some degradation on my battery, I really can't make the trip. I arrived with 8 miles on GOM after driving 55 on the interstate in the rain at night, and was down to an estimated 2 miles at a midpoint because I had an unscheduled 15mi route change. In all the 2.5hr trip took over 10 hours due to going slow to assure range and charging time, and that was with nothing serious going wrong.

[edit] But I know it is very early in the game in this part of the country. I love the car. I'm pleased I was able to make such a trip with it. But with zero QC, and many 60+ mile spans between level 2 alternatives, there are just too many things that could go wrong to impair your range (snowstorm, cold weather, road construction or accident causing detours, broken charging equipment).

It is totally comfortable range for my non-vacation, 98% of my days, driving. I love being able to just plug in at home. I have not even installed a 220v outlet to charge any faster for my daily needs. Jury still out on range with temps below zero. But should still have range enough to do what I need to do and not freeze to death. Just a question of whether battery freezes to death.

 

[Rebel44]

Well, that was just my perspective.

Currently, Leaf wouldnt work (at least not in the winter) even for my regular commute. 30+ miles each way, 12 hour shifts at work and no chargers here (and highly unlikely to be installed in next few years) and half of that commute is on highway, where traffic flow is around 80mph.

 

[smkettner]

I keep reading the average new car sells closer to $32,000. Why does an EV need to sell for so much less?
Stop low balling yourself and give us a real car with real range.... priced in the $32,000 range.

A lot less infrastructure worries if the range is adequate.

 

[kikngas]

A lot less infrastructure worries if the range is adequate.

Right. At present range I would feel pretty good having a place to L2 charge every 30 miles. Or, if each site had some provision for handling broken equipment, then perhaps only every 50 miles. If there were one every 40 miles and one were inoperable, then, even under poor conditions, you could generally reach the next one anyway.

But if I had twice the range, then the distance between places to charge to feel confident is cut in half. In fact, even in my very sparse area of the country, there are almost already enough charging locations. And their use would probably increase, because more LEAFs would be taken on trips that are not possible or highly stressful with today's range.

At present I have (SE MN) many 60+ mile gaps between charge locations, even on major highways (where you want to go, but your range is reduced by the high speed). That's too far to be totally dependent upon a charge location you've never seen, nor used. And if it is broken, no longer there, or otherwise unavailable, you're stuck somewhere with L1 for 10hrs. That's just not something people are going to do very often. But I think double the range is in the right ballpark for being all that is needed. Esp. if there were a QC option at half of the sites.

It's too bad that it sounds like no one is taking Tesla up on the offer to open patents on their QC network access. Can only hope it is because we are near the cusp of something significantly better in some way. Perhaps a less expensive install cost per chargestation.

 

[swaltner]

the real issue in your story is the gasser's belief that their real cost is 10 cents per mile. That is highly dependent on their location as the West gas prices are MUCH higher, the North has fuel economy that is MUCH lower and there are other associated costs with driving gassers that EVs do not enjoy.

I challenge anyone who drives a gasser to track their costs; fuel, maintenance, licensing, taxes, insurance, etc. get a real "cost per mile" figure.

I've got spreadsheets that have been used to track every expense (depreciation, fuel, insurance, taxes, maintenance, accessories like floor mats and running boards, washer fluid, etc...) on my vehicles for the last 20 years. The only expense that I don't track in my spreadsheets is car washes (both cleaning supplies for home and commercial car washes).

1994 Saturn SC2 (purchased new)
Owned: 1994 - 2003
Miles Driven: 115,714
Cost per mile: $0.31

1995 Honda VFR750F Motorcycle (purchased new)
Owned: 1995 - 2009
Miles Driven: 51,445
Cost per mile: $0.33

2003 Dodge Ram 1500 (purchased new)
Owned: 2003 - current
Miles Driven: 98,527
Cost per mile: $0.58 (including estimated resale value)

2008 Big Dog Mastiff Motorcycle (purchased used)
Owned: 2009 - 2011
Miles Driven: 5,240
Cost per mile: $1.12

2006 Ariel Atom 2 (purchased used)
Owned: 2010 - current
Miles Driven: 8,077
Cost per mile: $1.68 (including estimated resale value)

2013 Nissan Leaf SV (purchased new)
Owned 2013 - current
Miles Driven: 13,700
Cost per Mile: $0.69 (including estimated resale value)

The two vehicles that I got driven relatively low miles per year (Mastiff and Atom) have the highest per mile cost. For the Mastiff, I didn't end up and keep that motorcycle long enough to prorate the sales tax over enough miles of driving. For the Atom, the big per mile hit is insurance. Since I'm only putting about 2,000 miles a year on it, on a per mile basis, it's a pretty big expense.

- Back in 1995 when I first purchased the VFR, I figured out that even with me babying the motorcycle and getting a lot more miles out of a set of tires than others would get, I spent more on tires than I did on gas. Everyone would complain about gas prices going above $1 per gallon, but I knew that maintenance costs were a higher per mile expense back then.

- The pickup has burned $18,000 in gasoline over its life. That's even with gas being about $2/gal when I first purchased it. If gas was always 3-4 dollars per gallon, I would have spent more on gasoline than the original purchase price.

- Everybody says motorcycles are cheap to run. Even with me putting 4,000 miles a year on my VFR,and it getting over a 40 mpg average during the 14 years that I owned it, the VFR was still more expensive to drive than my little Saturn coupe.

- For gas vehicles, my fuel expense was between 10% and 32% of my total expenses on the vehicle. For the Leaf, paying retail rates on electricity in Kansas puts the fuel cost at 4% of my total costs. With the 5kW solar system I had previously installed on the house, covering most of my electricity needs, my personal fuel cost is 2% of the total expenses on the Leaf. With this super low on-going cost, the more I drive the Leaf, the lower that per-mile cost becomes. It should soon drop below the pickup's per-mile cost, which was my goal when purchasing the Leaf.

 

[LeftieBiker]

- Everybody says motorcycles are cheap to run. Even with me putting 4,000 miles a year on my VFR,and it getting over a 40 mpg average during the 14 years that I owned it, the VFR was still more expensive to drive than my little Saturn coupe.

They are generally talking about used and inexpensive-to-buy motorcycles. They also usually refer to bikes that get much more than 40MPG. I had a Suzuki GV1200 Madura for 9 years. It was a V-4, and would do 140MPH, but it had a nice tall overdrive and I could get 60MPG with it if I loafed. More typically I got 45MPG.

 

[Houdini]

There are only 2 things that are holding back Electric car sales.
1) Poor Range.
2) Lousy Charge Network.
Solve either one of these issues and sales will take off in a hurry.

Agreed and you guys in the States have it way better than other Countries.

Mind you I think 1 trumps 2. If you give them 300 kms range then people will care less about the chargers. They will be doing <80 kms per day 90% of their days but will always fell happy when the GOM states 130 kms remaining. They'll plug in and top up most of the time. If the next Gen leaf comes out with 300 kms range 5 people at my work will trade their cars in immediately. And if it's not the other manufacturers then Tesla will smash it with their model III.

 

[donald]

There are only 2 things that are holding back Electric car sales.
1) Poor Range.
2) Lousy Charge Network.
Solve either one of these issues and sales will take off in a hurry.

Agreed

FWIW, I disagree.

These are issues that only have traction because of buyer's ignorance. In that way it is buyer's ignorance that is the issue, but the reason potential buyer's don't give a damn to find out more is because the cars are already too expensive for them. When you go to buy a car, you set your budget and running costs, depreciation and the like, then exclude the ones you know you can't afford. For EVs you can't even get a figure on depreciation and running costs, so it's a non-starter. It is not even a 'rejection' of an EV option, it just doesn't appear on people's list to even begin thinking about range and charging.

 

[Zythryn]

A lot less infrastructure worries if the range is adequate.

...
It's too bad that it sounds like no one is taking Tesla up on the offer to open patents on their QC network access. Can only hope it is because we are near the cusp of something significantly better in some way. Perhaps a less expensive install cost per chargestation.

They may be. We just won't see any signs of it until the next generation Leaf comes out.
With a 80 mile range, the SuperChargers would do Leaf owners little good as the SC rate would have to be dialed back so far to make it not worth Nissan's money.
With 120-150 mile battery packs it will be much more useful.

As for the range vs number of chargers, if you double the range you will need fewer than half the chargers.
My thinking is that if you have 160 mile range vs an 80 mile range there would be days, possibly many, where you won't need any chargers at all, while today you would need 1.
Traveling 100 miles? Today you need 1 charge away from home, tomorrow 0, etc.

 

[donald]

As for the range vs number of chargers, if you double the range you will need fewer than half the chargers.

That's a very difficult, and probably wrong, thing to determine. It's pure guess-work unless you understand the true usage profile of the users.