What's Holding Back Electric Car Sales?

[DaveinOlyWA]

I think I cut through some of the misunderstanding amongst my friends when I posed this question:

I charged today at a public charge station during a visit to the library. I paid $1.50 and got about 30 miles of range in an hour. Did I get a good deal?

They stared at the ceiling a few seconds and concluded that was a price they'd be glad to pay. About half the price they pay to drive ICE.

Then I pointed out that if I had put the same charge in at home the same amount of electricity would only have cost about half as much from my existing household outlet. And that if I took advantage of off-peak rates from my power company, the cost would only be about half as much again, $.36

They still don't quite BELIEVE it, but I think it eliminates some of the confusion when you relate dollars directly to miles (and simplify away a bit of the uncertainty about exactly how many miles you might get for various reasons).

Keep in mind that this (the 6c/kWh off-peak rate) is an order of magnitude less than they are paying on a daily basis. If someone told you that you are paying 10x too much for cereal or Chinese food, you'd probably be looking for the "catch" in the story as well... But think about it, and you know you can buy a 10 pound bag of rice for about the price of one take-out order, and that a 60 pound bushel of wheat sells for roughly the price of two large boxes of Wheaties (weighing about 3 pounds).

the real issue in your story is the gasser's belief that their real cost is 10 cents per mile. That is highly dependent on their location as the West gas prices are MUCH higher, the North has fuel economy that is MUCH lower and there are other associated costs with driving gassers that EVs do not enjoy.

I challenge anyone who drives a gasser to track their costs; fuel, maintenance, licensing, taxes, insurance, etc. get a real "cost per mile" figure.

I am doing this and keep in mind; my test is weighted GREATLY in favor of the gasser. It was MUCH cheaper, it is only used for longer freeway trips, nearly 100% of its miles are reimbursed from work, etc. and so far, its performance shows. I am averaging over 39 MPG so far.

I will post results of the experiment at Christmas

 

[donald]

I challenge anyone who drives a gasser to track their costs; fuel, maintenance, licensing, taxes, insurance, etc. get a real "cost per mile" figure.

I could easily do that for my diesel car that I bought 2nd hand in 2006 and have done 80k miles in. All records kept. Only a ~dozen relatively minor garage repairs in that time, only one over £200.

Inclusive of the purchase price, insurance, all repairs, maintenance, fuel, road duties & mandatory vehicle tests it has cost 17.5 p/mile (28c/mile if you prefer at today's exchange rate).

Very cheap motoring at £14k over 8 years. But only possible because it was a 2nd hand purchase at 6 years old and £2k purchase price. Could easily be double that if it had been a new car purchase.

.. and therein lies the rub. Because the car I bought came from a 2nd hand market which was abundant with that model and its competition (at the time - it's almost a collectors car now!! ) the price was a supply-and-demand calculation. This is true for EVs too, but there is no really competitive 2nd hand EV market yet developed. Once it does, just as my cost/mile figure is really low, that of a 2nd hand EV will be proportionately lower still.

A properly operating 2nd hand market will 'suck down' cars from the first owners when they are remarketed, and thereby generate a much stronger new-purchase demand than you are ever likely to see at the moment without it.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I challenge anyone who drives a gasser to track their costs; fuel, maintenance, licensing, taxes, insurance, etc. get a real "cost per mile" figure.

I could easily do that for my diesel car that I bought 2nd hand in 2006 and have done 80k miles in. All records kept. Only a ~dozen relatively minor garage repairs in that time, only one over £200.

Inclusive of the purchase price, insurance, all repairs, maintenance, fuel, road duties & mandatory vehicle tests it has cost 17.5 p/mile (28c/mile if you prefer at today's exchange rate).

Very cheap motoring at £14k over 8 years. But only possible because it was a 2nd hand purchase at 6 years old and £2k purchase price. Could easily be double that if it had been a new car purchase.

.. and therein lies the rub. Because the car I bought came from a 2nd hand market which was abundant with that model and its competition (at the time - it's almost a collectors car now!! ) the price was a supply-and-demand calculation. This is true for EVs too, but there is no really competitive 2nd hand EV market yet developed. Once it does, just as my cost/mile figure is really low, that of a 2nd hand EV will be proportionately lower still.

A properly operating 2nd hand market will 'suck down' cars from the first owners when they are remarketed, and thereby generate a much stronger new-purchase demand than you are ever likely to see at the moment without it.

ya, mine was a bit different. I am actually running two lists which is operating costs (minus purchase cost and disparity in insurance coverages in my case) and TCO which includes everything EXCEPT repairs. Obviously a car 23 years newer than its competition is likely to win that one

 

[MrIanB]

Range and public education are the biggest culprits holding back sales.

Ian B

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

Range and public education are the biggest culprits holding back sales.

Ian B

i say its price and public ignorance.


which car would sell best?

an 84 mile EV for $20,000 or a 150 mile EV for $32,000?

I say cheap wins by at least a 2 to 1 margin and would not be surprised if the margin were much higher.

the 2nd point; I talk with people every day who say 84 miles is not enough and they have a multi car household but can't show me where they would need near 84 miles more often than occasionally

 

[smkettner]

which car would sell best?

an 84 mile EV for $20,000 or a 150 mile EV for $32,000?

I would take the 150 mile any day. 84 did not work well for me.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

which car would sell best?

an 84 mile EV for $20,000 or a 150 mile EV for $32,000?

I would take the 150 mile any day. 84 did not work well for me.

well, good for you AND I did not ask which car would sell? It was which would sell BEST?

FYI; I agree with you but then again, my driving needs are far from typical

 

[GRA]

which car would sell best?

an 84 mile EV for $20,000 or a 150 mile EV for $32,000?

I would take the 150 mile any day. 84 did not work well for me.

well, good for you AND I did not ask which car would sell? It was which would sell BEST?

FYI; I agree with you but then again, my driving needs are far from typical

I'll play. The 150 mile car will sell best, because in reality it's a 70-80 mile car year round for up to a decade, while the 84 mile car is only a 30-40 mile year-round car for maybe half that. If you want 84 mile cars to outsell 150 mile cars here in the U.S., they'd better sell for well under $15k. Case in point, the iMiEV, which sells now for $13k after Fed and CA. rebates (but only has a 62 mile EPA range). If Mitsubishi can't sell it in large numbers at $13k, what chance does a car with another 22 miles of nominal range have when selling for $7k more (I'm assuming you mean $20k after subsidies, or without them)? Peace of mind is critical to the average person when spending that kind of cash, and 84 miles ( a real world, no worries for years 40 miles or less with a very limited used market) doesn't provide that.

 

[DaveinOlyWA]

I'll play. The 150 mile car will sell best, because in reality it's a 70-80 mile car year round for up to a decade, while the 84 mile car is only a 30-40 mile year-round car for maybe half that. If you want 84 mile cars to outsell 150 mile cars here in the U.S., they'd better sell for well under $15k. Case in point, the iMiEV, which sells now for $13k after Fed and CA. rebates (but only has a 62 mile EPA range). If Mitsubishi can't sell it in large numbers at $13k, what chance does a car with another 22 miles of nominal range have when selling for $7k more (I'm assuming you mean $20k after subsidies, or without them)? Peace of mind is critical to the average person when spending that kind of cash, and 84 miles ( a real world, no worries for years 40 miles or less with a very limited used market) doesn't provide that.

you expect a serious answer when you are using the MiEV as an example?

and i mean
MSRP = $20,000...

 

[donald]

The other elephant here in regards the 150 mile car is that, at today's current CO2 footprint levels, if an EV needs over 50 kWh installed throughout its usable life (e.g. a 24kWh pack that needs to be replaced more than once, or a 48kWh pack that needs replacing) then the CO2 argument in favour of an EV over the better ICE engines now available falls down. Small, highly efficient supercharged down-sized engines with a small battery pack with electric 'boost' to fill in the torque gaps would have significantly lower CO2 footprints, based on typical western world kWh generation mixes (OK, a move to, or if you have, loads of nuclear/hydro/renewables then that changes the equations, but we can only go on currently available technologies).

 

[GRA]

I'll play. The 150 mile car will sell best, because in reality it's a 70-80 mile car year round for up to a decade, while the 84 mile car is only a 30-40 mile year-round car for maybe half that. If you want 84 mile cars to outsell 150 mile cars here in the U.S., they'd better sell for well under $15k. Case in point, the iMiEV, which sells now for $13k after Fed and CA. rebates (but only has a 62 mile EPA range). If Mitsubishi can't sell it in large numbers at $13k, what chance does a car with another 22 miles of nominal range have when selling for $7k more (I'm assuming you mean $20k after subsidies, or without them)? Peace of mind is critical to the average person when spending that kind of cash, and 84 miles ( a real world, no worries for years 40 miles or less with a very limited used market) doesn't provide that.

you expect a serious answer when you are using the MiEV as an example?

and i mean
MSRP = $20,000...

Considering what a roughly comparable base model gas Chevy Spark sells for and its sales totals, sure I expect a serious answer: http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2012/08/chevrolet-spark-sales-figures.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.chevrolet.com/spark-fuel-efficient-car/build-your-own.html?x-zipcode=94540" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Nissan or any BEV company would love to have those sales figures for their BEV, and that's for a car that's a sub-compact penalty box. But it can be your sole car for well under $20k and mostly under $15k, and still be working, capable of providing almost the same capability when new, and thus be useful for something besides being a boat anchor a decade from now. Can anyone make such a statement now and be certain that it'll be true, about any BEV other than a Tesla?

 

[GRA]

The other elephant here in regards the 150 mile car is that, at today's current CO2 footprint levels, if an EV needs over 50 kWh installed throughout its usable life (e.g. a 24kWh pack that needs to be replaced more than once, or a 48kWh pack that needs replacing) then the CO2 argument in favour of an EV over the better ICE engines now available falls down. Small, highly efficient supercharged down-sized engines with a small battery pack with electric 'boost' to fill in the torque gaps would have significantly lower CO2 footprints, based on typical western world kWh generation mixes (OK, a move to, or if you have, loads of nuclear/hydro/renewables then that changes the equations, but we can only go on currently available technologies).

Fortunately, here in California we're well along the shift to renewables curve (and we've got hydro and a nuke too), so the numbers for 150 miles (or 300 FTM) look good. Coal dependent states like West Virginia or Wyoming, hybrids are still preferable.

 

[GetOffYourGas]

The other elephant here in regards the 150 mile car is that, at today's current CO2 footprint levels, if an EV needs over 50 kWh installed throughout its usable life (e.g. a 24kWh pack that needs to be replaced more than once, or a 48kWh pack that needs replacing) then the CO2 argument in favour of an EV over the better ICE engines now available falls down. Small, highly efficient supercharged down-sized engines with a small battery pack with electric 'boost' to fill in the torque gaps would have significantly lower CO2 footprints, based on typical western world kWh generation mixes (OK, a move to, or if you have, loads of nuclear/hydro/renewables then that changes the equations, but we can only go on currently available technologies).

Ok, I'll bite. You really think that this is holding back electric car sales? Most people I know don't give a rodent's rear end about the CO2 emissions of their car. They think I'm some kind of hippy wacko to care about mine. So even if you're correct, that reasoning does not factor into most people's car-buying decision.

There are any number of things holding back sales, but in my mind, public education is at the very top of the heap.

 

[smkettner]

There is no CO2 elephant in this room. Who looks to compare vehicles based on CO2 emissions? Are the values even published on the window sticker?

Range and cost to operate are what is holding back EV sales. NOT the CO2 produced by the grid.

 

[donald]

There is no CO2 elephant in this room. Who looks to compare vehicles based on CO2 emissions?

The folks dishing out the Government grants, without which many folks would simply say 'EVs? too expensive'.

 

[donald]

Ok, I'll bite. You really think that this is holding back electric car sales?

Not directly. At least, not at the moment. But it impacts the financing of car production and retail indirectly via grants.

In regards any possibly direct effects, funnily enough, only a few decades ago people said the same thing about vehicle safety. People wouldn't be prepared to pay for the extra cost of vehicle safety systems. (In fact, many still didn't fit 3 point seatbelts for years after Volvo decided to offer its patented invention freely for other VMs to use.)

Yet it is now simply unimaginable that a car manufacturer would make a car without due regard for its crash performance. It hasn't been long since vehicles came with a CO2/mile rating, so you can bet your dollar that embedded production CO2 will appear in data sheets near you very soon.

 

[WetEV]

There is no CO2 elephant in this room. Who looks to compare vehicles based on CO2 emissions?

The folks dishing out the Government grants, without which many folks would simply say 'EVs? too expensive'.

A few do look at CO2 emissions, and have for years. Grants or no.

 

[mbender]

Range and public education are the biggest culprits holding back sales.

Ian B

i say its price and public ignorance.

which car would sell best?

an 84 mile EV for $20,000 or a 150 mile EV for $32,000?

I say cheap wins by at least a 2 to 1 margin and would not be surprised if the margin were much higher.

Pet/grammar-police peeve: the question should be, "Which car would sell better?".

That out of the way ;-) , my two cents is that it is indeed public ignorance, with habit and reluctance to change mixed in. But the "price" factor is part of what the ignorance is about: I think they're actually quite affordable with the incentives/perqs, leasing options and minuscule operating costs (none of which many know about or understand). And if a potential buyer appreciates "true" (external/non-selfish) costs of the ICE alternatives, they might be considered even more affordable.

I have a 3-year lease of a beautiful 2015 car that I am paying $200/month for, and am saving about $100 on fuel (something worth well more than $100 to me). The biggest hit to my budget came from a "hidden" expense: the $500 per annum increase in my insurance from my previous vehicle... :shock:

But I think that all this concern will prove to be short-lived. I expect price to be pushed down, range up, and ignorance greatly reduced (largely due to exposure and questions being answered) within a few years. Then we should really see sales snowball. But even with the seemingly slow pace up to this point, aren't we already experiencing exponential growth in the industry as a whole? It's just hard to appreciate when the numbers are small, but in the coming years, we might be in for quite a good show (as it were).

 

[LeftieBiker]

You're the Pet Police? ;-) Anyway, few people ask me how much my Leaf cost. Everyone asks me what the range is, and they usually dismiss it once they know. I have to say it's range, followed by price, followed by range, then convenience of plugging in, then range.

 

[donald]

/small/

Pet/grammar-police peeve: the question should be, "Which car would sell better?".

Shouldn't that be "Which of the cars would sell better?". 'Better' calls for a plural for there to be a 'better' thing? I'll have to chew on whether there was an actual error in the first attempt.