Update on Nissan LEAF Battery Replacement

[Valdemar]

I suspect it will be a while before a 3rd party can undercut the $5500 price of the OEM pack. However, with the announcement that the new batteries are backwards compatible with earlier Leafs now there is a good chance they will retain their value relatively well over time because:

a) you will be able to find a good deal on a used functional battery from a junkyard
b) gas prices will likely rise
c) these cars will continue to provide reliable transportation with close to 0 maintenance cost
d) public acceptance of the technology will grow
e) public charging infrastructure will slowly improve over time
f) higher demand because of the above and limited supply because relatively few were sold

 

[thankyouOB]

if nissan lets me put a 10k battery in my car for 6k, doesnt the value of it at resale go up?

 

[Valdemar]

if nissan lets me put a 10k battery in my car for 6k, doesnt the value of it at resale go up?

Only if there are people out there who are willing to pay the real price

 

[TomT]

Resale on cars is almost entirely driven by age and mileage (with a small adjustment for condition). Until this changes, a new battery is likely to bring little extra in the resale market unless you can find an individual that appreciates the difference and is willing to pay for it...

if nissan lets me put a 10k battery in my car for 6k, doesnt the value of it at resale go up?

 

[dhanson865]

Resale on cars is almost entirely driven by age and mileage (with a small adjustment for condition). Until this changes, a new battery is likely to bring little extra in the resale market unless you can find an individual that appreciates the difference and is willing to pay for it...

if Nissan lets me put a 10k battery in my car for 6k, doesn't the value of it at resale go up?

and the real question is how does the car behave with more than 4 bars lost.

We now know the cost of a replacement battery but we don't know the divisor for the value equation.

If the car stopped working at 4 bars lost there would be a simple linear value equation for a 8 bar, 10 bar, 12 bar comparison with the 8 bar and 12 bar cars having similar value (adjusted for the price of a battery replacement). Some might prefer to buy a 8 bar instead of a 10 bar and buy a new battery but in general the value per bar would be known.

But if the car keeps working reliably with no drastic side effect or surprises at 6 bars lost then the value per bar lost is less and the boost in resale value for replacing the battery is less for those willing to have more range restriction.

Of course every individual will have a differing opinion on how many bars lost is too many but that difference of opinion matters more if there is a wider variance of usable range of lost bars.

People look at mileage on gas cars because there is no gauge for engine life remaining or transmission life remaining. We look at battery capacity bars because they are much more useful than the old odometer method. I guarantee you the used car market will adjust. But just like anything with used cars there will be those that get ripped off and those that argue over the true value of the old part (battery pack).

 

[TomT]

I see a law coming that will make battery capacity meter tampering illegal as is odometer tampering presently... :lol:

I guarantee you the used car market will adjust. But just like anything with used cars there will be those that get ripped off and those that argue over the true value of the old part (battery pack).

 

[johnrhansen]

if nissan lets me put a 10k battery in my car for 6k, doesnt the value of it at resale go up?

I'd imagine it's just like any other car. Yes the value goes up, but nowhere near the amount you had to pay to get it installed. Same as an engine, transmission, or other major mechanical repair on an ice car.

 

[JPWhite]

e) public charging infrastructure will slowly improve over time

I hope this is true. I have noticed that the public infrastructure is not well maintained and is often managed by companies close to bankruptcy due to a lack of a good business model.

As vehicles get longer range per charge, the need for the infrastructure will be less, further challenging public charging models.

JP

 

[Valdemar]

As vehicles get longer range per charge, the need for the infrastructure will be less, further challenging public charging models.

JP

That is not necessarily true. Longer range will bring more buyers hopefully, so overall the number of charging events may go up even if on an individual level the need for public charging will be less.

 

[TimLee]

Nissan's $5,499 battery replacement price was covered in the press on Marketplace Tech on Monday, July 28, 2014.
http://www.marketplace.org/shows/marketplace-tech/marketplace-tech-monday-july-28-2014" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Auto analyst in the segment noted that Nissan is losing money on the replacements with the real cost being more like $10,000, and that Nissan is likely losing $ on the LEAF in the short term.
But may make lots of $ in the long term like Toyota did with the Prius when electric vehicles become mainstream in ~five years.

I am still surprised that some very knowledgeable people on MNL had so called inside sources saying the LEAF battery cost was in the $3,000 to $4,000 range.
I think some of the confusion and difference may be variable cost versus total cost including the capital cost of the facilities to build the batteries.
Possible that the incremental cost for materials and labor might be around $5,499 or maybe even less.
But there is cost to build the plant.
Maybe Nissan recognized paying that cost had to wait five or more years for the LEAF to "become mainstream".

 

[mctom987]

I am still surprised that some very knowledgeable people on MNL had so called inside sources saying the LEAF battery cost was in the $3,000 to $4,000 range.
I think some of the confusion and difference may be variable cost versus total cost including the capital cost of the facilities to build the batteries.
Possible that the incremental cost for materials and labor might be around $5,499 or maybe even less.
But there is cost to build the plant.

I made some similar claims that Nissan could build a 100kW battery for under $5500. As I also mentioned there, manufacturing cost is only one of many parts of the total cost. The materials themselves are rather cheap, (as are diamonds, for that matter), but processing, research, defects, setup, etc., all have significant costs. Ideally, these come out to near-zero in the long run. Were the Leaf selling 10M units per year, Nissan could easily make money selling the replacement battery for $4k. But that's the problem, US sales are ~50k, and the volume of the replacement batteries is extremely low, making the setup/misc costs a huge portion of the total cost. I have no doubt Nissan is losing money at the $6500 valuation.

 

[electricfuture]

Nissan's $5,499 battery replacement price

I have 3 bars gone for 2 months @ 39,000 miles, with 2 years/20,000 miles to go on the warranty, and an NRG eVgo Fast Charger recently installed 1 mile from my house in a shopping center with a Subway and a Starbucks.

I am considering keeping the battery right up to the warranty limit or 4 years whichever I can tolerate the longest. I am guessing that the new battery would last over 4 years at 12,000 miles per year considering San Diego's climate and the new battery chemistry.

The Fast charger is $4.95 plus $0.20 per minute, so for $10 I can bring it up to 80% in less than 30 minutes when necessary. Blink is currently charging me $1 per hour at 220 volts, and the number of their chargers has increased dramatically over the last year helping to increase my range. Home charging costs here are going up to $.16 per kWh "super off peak", but I am planning to have solar PV within a year.

I feel that if the battery & replacement last a total of 8 years with a virtually zero maintenance the car is a success.

 

[mctom987]

In a similar vein, I'm wondering how long I'll be able to drive the Leaf 40 miles before the battery capacity is an issue.
There is tons of data to 70%, but not much beyond that. How many 100ks of miles or years will it take to reach 50% capacity?

 

[evnow]

In a similar vein, I'm wondering how long I'll be able to drive the Leaf 40 miles before the battery capacity is an issue.
There is tons of data to 70%, but not much beyond that. How many 100ks of miles or years will it take to reach 50% capacity?

It is not that the capacity gradually goes down all the way to zero. At some point the battery just fails.

 

[abasile]

It is not that the capacity gradually goes down all the way to zero. At some point the battery just fails.

It would be instructive to know roughly at what capacity level that might happen. If for some drivers it's before 8 years / 100K miles, then they should be covered by the original battery warranty (not the capacity warranty). My understanding is that, during that warranty period, the battery is guaranteed by Nissan to be able to drive the wheels.

Before the battery completely fails, I'd expect to see the vehicle restrict available power, especially at lower SOCs. So, with a highly degraded battery, perhaps at 20% SOC the motor would be limited to, say, 60 kW of power instead of the usual 80 kW.

 

[mkjayakumar]

It is not that the capacity gradually goes down all the way to zero. At some point the battery just fails.

Any source for this piece of information ? This is the first time I am hearing that the battery would simply fail long before it reaches low levels of capacity.

 

[johnrhansen]

my guess is that something else on the car is going to "just fail" long before the battery does. But surely the car will die.

 

[abasile]

It is not that the capacity gradually goes down all the way to zero. At some point the battery just fails.

Any source for this piece of information ? This is the first time I am hearing that the battery would simply fail long before it reaches low levels of capacity.

As many here know, when a Li-ion battery has 70-80% remaining capacity, it is commonly considered to have reached end of life (EOL). Googling around, however, I can't seem to find good information on what happens to Li-ion batteries past EOL, so I'll share what I do know. (Most studies of Li-ion batteries only seem to care about non-EOL cases.)

It is well known that capacity fade is accompanied by power fade. I understand that we haven't really noticed power fade with our LEAF batteries because the LEAF's drivetrain and power electronics aren't capable of drawing the full power that the pack can output. On the other hand, many of us have noticed that the LEAF's limitations on regenerative braking grow worse with degraded packs.

Also, it is widely assumed across the industry that EV batteries, upon reaching EOL, should still be very useful for stationary power storage. The assumption is that while EOL batteries won't be powerful enough for automotive use, they'll be fine for low-power applications.

So, for old LEAF battery packs still in service, outright failure might be less of an immediate concern than the ability to produce sufficient power, particularly in cold conditions.

 

[dhanson865]

It is not that the capacity gradually goes down all the way to zero. At some point the battery just fails.

Any source for this piece of information ? This is the first time I am hearing that the battery would simply fail long before it reaches low levels of capacity.

As many here know, when a Li-ion battery has 70-80% remaining capacity, it is commonly considered to have reached end of life (EOL). Googling around, however, I can't seem to find good information on what happens to Li-ion batteries past EOL, so I'll share what I do know. (Most studies of Li-ion batteries only seem to care about non-EOL cases.)

It is well known that capacity fade is accompanied by power fade. I understand that we haven't really noticed power fade with our LEAF batteries because the LEAF's drivetrain and power electronics aren't capable of drawing the full power that the pack can output. On the other hand, many of us have noticed that the LEAF's limitations on regenerative braking grow worse with degraded packs.

Also, it is widely assumed across the industry that EV batteries, upon reaching EOL, should still be very useful for stationary power storage. The assumption is that while EOL batteries won't be powerful enough for automotive use, they'll be fine for low-power applications.

So, for old LEAF battery packs still in service, outright failure might be less of an immediate concern than the ability to produce sufficient power, particularly in cold conditions.

So maybe you'd have lower acceleration at 5 bars remaining (7 bars lost) but the car would still be drivable?

Maybe the worst thing about a 6 or 7 bar loser would be no turtle mode. As in the car would still drive but it might go from 5 miles remaining to stuck on the side of the road in a quarter mile because the pack drop off is more severe? Maybe the car would skip the VLBW if the pack is degraded enough?

 

[abasile]

So maybe you'd have lower acceleration at 5 bars remaining (7 bars lost) but the car would still be drivable?

That's what I'm thinking, but of course we don't know for sure because no one has reported data on a car with such a degraded battery. I could potentially try keeping our original pack that long, with the caveat that it won't have enough range to get home from the nearest Nissan dealer.

Maybe the worst thing about a 6 or 7 bar loser would be no turtle mode. As in the car would still drive but it might go from 5 miles remaining to stuck on the side of the road in a quarter mile because the pack drop off is more severe? Maybe the car would skip the VLBW if the pack is degraded enough?

All observations indicate that LBW and VLBW occur at fixed amounts of energy stored in the battery. As the pack degrades, LBW and VLBW occur at higher and higher SOC levels. However, this assumes the BMS is able to reasonably estimate the charge remaining, which could grow increasingly difficult as the battery degrades and particularly when the battery temperature is low. With a poor estimate of remaining, usable energy, yes, one could easily go from "5 miles remaining" to dead in no time.

Hopefully, to give us some data, some of the hot climate owners with 4+ missing capacity bars and sufficiently short commutes will continue driving on their original packs as long as possible before reaching the capacity warranty threshold.

The bottom line is, in evaluating whether or not to replace a degraded battery, sell/trade the car, or buy a used LEAF, it's helpful to know how much utility it has left.