Update on Battery Warranty Enhancement for 2011 & 2012 LEAF

[TickTock]

Glad you made it home, phxsmiley. Thanks for relinquishing the QC and crawling home so I could get home.

Some other notes from last night about the Battery replacements:

- Nissan is spending 70% of its R&D dollars on two areas: ZeroEmission (EV) and Autonomous Driving
- 22 Replacements have been initiated so far under the Warranty program. I believe that is counting the replacements pending and the ones completed. All of them are in hotter climates.
- If your battery is replaced before the new 'Hot Battery' (Andy's nickname) becomes available, you will be provided with a coupon to change to that battery, and the coupon is good for 5 years.
- Nissan knows (through Carwings) whether a car's battery health is trending. I think we already knew this, but I was impressioned that they are indeed paying attention to it.
- There are other battery chemistries being developed beyond Lithium Ion.
- The Battery Price survey indicated that even prices in the 5-8K (from memory, correct me if I'm wrong) range were unacceptable to the current and potential drivers.

 

[Stoaty]

The exciting news last night was they are 80% done with the testing on a new battery chemistry that dramatically addresses the heat issue - enough that the LEAF could even be sold in climates hotter than PHX (like Abh Dhabi). Testing includeS 24/7 soak at 45C and preliminary results show degradation on par with the more moderate climates. This new battery is trending to an April 2014 rollout but folks facing a replacement now shouldn't wait since they want everyone to have one so will give such folks a coupon to replace to the new technology at a date of their choosing.

Does that mean when the "hot" battery is ready all new Leafs will be sold with the new battery? If so and word got out, I would think that would put a damper on current Leaf sales. Perhaps that is why Nissan isn't cranking out Leafs even though there appears to be a lot of demand for them.

 

[Stoaty]

I suspect that the new battery chemistry they are talking about is the one mentioned in the Wiki Battery Aging Model Section:

"NEC (Nissan's partner in the AESC joint venture, which manufactures the battery packs for the LEAF) used Arrhenius Law in testing a new electrolyte additive that doubled the life of the battery (emphasis added). Interestingly, they found a factor of 3.2 in battery life between the hottest and coldest cities used in their simulation, close to the 2.64 factor estimated between Phoenix and Seattle. Using a model of 66% cycle time and 33% storage time they calculated a doubling of capacity loss with every 6.85 degrees C. increase in temperature for the newly developed battery."

See the original paper here with all of the details of the testing; note that one of the test environments was the 45 degrees C. that Andy Palmer mentioned:


http://www.nec.com/en/global/techrep/journal/g12/n01/pdf/120112.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

 

[phxsmiley]

The exciting news last night was they are 80% done with the testing on a new battery chemistry that dramatically addresses the heat issue - enough that the LEAF could even be sold in climates hotter than PHX (like Abh Dhabi). Testing includeS 24/7 soak at 45C and preliminary results show degradation on par with the more moderate climates. This new battery is trending to an April 2014 rollout but folks facing a replacement now shouldn't wait since they want everyone to have one so will give such folks a coupon to replace to the new technology at a date of their choosing.

Does that mean when the "hot" battery is ready all new Leafs will be sold with the new battery? If so and word got out, I would think that would put a damper on current Leaf sales. Perhaps that is why Nissan isn't cranking out Leafs even though there appears to be a lot of demand for them.

I believe the batteries would be changed to the 'Hot Battery' when the warranty conditions were met, but I wasn't clear if all future Leafs would be sold with the new 'Hot Battery'. The new battery supports the same QC characteristics, with no better or worse QC times.

He also mentioned that the 2013 Battery does have better temperature characteristics, and we should notice an improvement, but isn't as good as the 'Hot Battery'

 

[DaveEV]

The exciting news last night was they are 80% done with the testing on a new battery chemistry that dramatically addresses the heat issue - enough that the LEAF could even be sold in climates hotter than PHX (like Abh Dhabi). Testing includeS 24/7 soak at 45C and preliminary results show degradation on par with the more moderate climates. This new battery is trending to an April 2014 rollout but folks facing a replacement now shouldn't wait since they want everyone to have one so will give such folks a coupon to replace to the new technology at a date of their choosing. Now to the explanation as to why there has been no price announced.

This is a very interesting development, and I think sooner than what most might expect (if it really starts rolling off the production line in '14). The timing would line up with a late release of the '14 LEAF. Was there been any mention of energy density improvements as well? The beauty of energy density improvements is that they typically improve capacity with minimal cost increase - they are typically "free" once you can put them in to production. Doubling durability is a good start - but given that Phoenix LEAFs are EOL after just 2 years - that only extends their life to 4 years. What they really need is to double the durability twice (8 years worst case) to survive in the desert heat.

1) customer research indicated that a big battery replacement cost in the life of the car would turn away more potential buyers (over 80% said they wouldn't buy if faced with a $5000 replacement cost later)
2) cost of battery is dropping and there would be resentment if one person paid $xx,xxx for theirs and next year their neighbor only paid $y,yyy
Later, is was said that people would find the price of the battery "shocking" if it was disclosed. Andy specifically said that they "were not trying to "steal your battery"" - so he does pay attention to this forum However, they think announcing a price will be detrimental to the "democratization" of the EV - at least until the price stabilizes.

A couple thoughts on the above:

Ideally, one shouldn't expect to have to replace a battery in normal conditions until the car is say 10 years old and has 150,000 miles regardless of climate. Or basically around the same time one might expect the car to be replaced, anyway.

Given that, one simply needs to have realistic expectations of how fast the battery will degrade in various conditions. If one knows ahead of time the battery isn't going to last long enough for you, just don't buy the car - or plan on selling it sooner. Had Nissan been up front about rate of capacity loss up front (as many have asked for) and it's relation to climate, this would be less of an issue. And people wouldn't have been so upset when they find out after 2 years that their battery has reached EOL when they expected it to last 8-10.

Doubling the durability of the battery is a good start - but IMO the LEAF still needs more range if Nissan wants to push more volume for a couple reasons. A good target is 100+ miles at 65 mph (or 100 mile EPA range) or about 30 kWh battery instead of 24 kWh. 100 miles is one of those tipping points where one gets to the point of diminishing returns. Not only that, but 10 years down the road when that battery is down 25% capacity, it's still very useful and about as good as a new LEAF today. Even better would be to target 100 miles at EOL, but that's going to take close to 40 kWh.

Probably going to take quite a few more years to get to that point and Nissan is probably focused on getting the price down enough for the day when the $7500 tax credit is eliminated.

 

[surfingslovak]

Doubling the durability of the battery is a good start - but IMO the LEAF still needs more range if Nissan wants to push more volume for a couple reasons. A good target is 100+ miles at 65 mph (or 100 mile EPA range) or about 30 kWh battery instead of 24 kWh. 100 miles is one of those tipping points where one gets to the point of diminishing returns. Not only that, but 10 years down the road when that battery is down 25% capacity, it's still very useful and about as good as a new LEAF today. Even better would be to target 100 miles at EOL, but that's going to take close to 40 kWh.

Great comment. While completely understandable, I too find it disappointing that most car makers settle for about 80 miles of real-world EV range today. Adding 6 to 10 kWh would not carry a huge weight or price penalty, but it could have a significant impact on sales. Especially, if this was offered as on option, much like what Tesla initially did with their 40, 60 and 85 kWh battery pack configuration. I will be hard-pressed to get the i3, even though I helped to test and improve the drivetrain in the ActiveE field trial. I could go with the REx version, but I'm waiting on the final word on option pricing for the US.

In the end, it's all a function of range, and I don't expect the i3 in its base BEV version to offer any material improvement over the first-gen LEAF. This is also the reason why some LEAF drivers opted for the Model S or the RAV4 EV, I believe. Should Nissan understand this and offer more capacity and more range in 2014, along with improved battery life, I might find myself considering another LEAF. I do like the quick charging concept, and expect Tesla to lead the way, and Nissan being close second in terms of real-world deployment and usability in the US. The judgement is still out on the CCS and I would be surprised if we saw many deployments in the next 12 months.

 

[dhanson865]

Some other notes from last night about the Battery replacements:

- 22 Replacements have been initiated so far under the Warranty program. I believe that is counting the replacements pending and the ones completed. All of them are in hotter climates.
- If your battery is replaced before the new 'Hot Battery' (Andy's nickname) becomes available, you will be provided with a coupon to change to that battery, and the coupon is good for 5 years.
- Nissan knows (through Carwings) whether a car's battery health is trending. I think we already knew this, but I was impressioned that they are indeed paying attention to it.
- There are other battery chemistries being developed beyond Lithium Ion.
- The Battery Price survey indicated that even prices in the 5-8K (from memory, correct me if I'm wrong) range were unacceptable to the current and potential drivers.

5 year coupon for hot battery? What I want to know is will that apply to a used leaf / not the original owner?

As in if a leaf is shipped from one state to another by way of a dealer putting the car up for auction and then a dealer sells it to me in a southern state and I have a used leaf with say 10 bars showing. Can I use a coupon to get a hot battery then, or is the coupon only good for 4 bar losers in the first place? If I buy a car that already had the battery replaced and someone else got the coupon but never redeemed it can I go to the Nissan dealer and get the "hot battery" as a second or third owner of the vehicle if the prior battery replacement was within a proper months / miles window or is the coupon concept only good for the owner at the time of the last battery swap? If there is a x months / y miles since last battery swap what are the values for x and y?

If I'm looking to buy a used leaf how will I know if the car has an original battery, a replacement battery from the first chemistry, a replacement battery of the 2013 chemistry, or a replacement battery of the "hot battery" chemistry? Will there be a code I can read with Torque or the Leaf Battery app on my android phone by way of ODBII? Will there be a sticker added under the hood? Or would I have to pull dealer service records to figure out that a battery swap occurred?

Dealers are notorious for selling certified preowned cars taken as trade ins or lease returns without doing recall repairs or completing "optional campaign" work. Also, given that used Leafs are being sold at non Nissan dealerships and private sellers now I'd prefer a way to know the battery status without having to find a Nissan dealership that knows what they are doing. If the worst case occurs I want the policy thoroughly detailed down to the point I can print it out and shove it in the dealers face if I have to or I need the Nissan phone reps to actually facilitate someone educating a wayward dealer when they don't know the new policy.

Oh and as to the battery price issue, how many Prius owners do you think Toyota lost by having a $5000 battery replacement price on the Gen II (2005-2009). You do know that a few Prius owners over the last decade have had to buy a replacement battery (though many bought batteries from totaled vehicles or bought rebuilt packs some did pay outrageous prices from a Toyota dealership)? Personally that never scared me away from buying a used Prius because I knew it was still the best cost per mile hands down before the Leaf came along. I'm still not sure about that comparison now but I continue to compare the two and will for some time to come.

If you truly offer a replacement battery free when needed and at a reasonable fixed cost when you can't authorize free you'll only get complaints from the type that would complain about any car repair. And the smart people will realize that a battery replacement on a leaf might be cheaper than the repairs on a gas engine based vehicle. I'm not saying you get a free pass to ignore your customers but if you aren't getting any complaints you aren't selling any cars either.

 

[TomT]

The only comments along those lines were that the high temp battery would have the same capacity as the current 2011/12/13 battery and that more capacity and range could not come without a commensurate higher price for the foreseeable future...

Did they give any hints about a larger capacity battery and if it can be retrofitted into 11-13 MY?

 

[TomT]

Andy said hot climates and hot climate warranty replacements only. Others there indicated that the implementation would be more wide-spread than that ultimately... One thing to remember is that Andy said that the testing is 80% complete... As anyone with an engineering or manufacturing background knows, however, that last 20% can take longer than 20% of the total time - it is often exponential depending on what crops up in testing...

The exciting news last night was they are 80% done with the testing on a new battery chemistry that dramatically addresses the heat issue - enough that the LEAF could even be sold in climates hotter than PHX (like Abh Dhabi). Testing includeS 24/7 soak at 45C and preliminary results show degradation on par with the more moderate climates. This new battery is trending to an April 2014 rollout but folks facing a replacement now shouldn't wait since they want everyone to have one so will give such folks a coupon to replace to the new technology at a date of their choosing.

Does that mean when the "hot" battery is ready all new Leafs will be sold with the new battery? If so and word got out, I would think that would put a damper on current Leaf sales. Perhaps that is why Nissan isn't cranking out Leafs even though there appears to be a lot of demand for them.

 

[cwerdna]

Oh and as to the battery price issue, how many Prius owners do you think Toyota lost by having a $5000 battery replacement price on the Gen II (2005-2009). You do know that a few Prius owners over the last decade have had to buy a replacement battery (though many bought batteries from totaled vehicles or bought rebuilt packs some did pay outrageous prices from a Toyota dealership)?

Prius replacement batteries are NOT $5000. See http://pressroom.toyota.com/article_display.cfm?article_id=2727" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; and http://web.archive.org/web/20120426034921/http://www.toyota.com/html/hybridsynergyview/2006/fall/battery.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

I haven't followed closely but I recall seeing figures in the low $3K range including labor. Prius' HV batteries are warranted for 8 years/100K miles in most states and AT-PZEV hybrids (e.g. regular 04+ Prius, Camry Hybrid, etc.) have 10 year/150K mile warranties in CA and CARB emission states. Some models aren't AT-PZEV (e.g. Prius c, Lexus CT, etc.) and thus don't get a 10 year/150K mile HV battery even in CARB states.

But yes, some folks have gone w/cheaper options such as those from totaled vehicles (MUCH cheaper) or rebuilt ones like http://www.re-involt.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. More info at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Failed_traction_%28HV%29_battery,_what_to_do%3F" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;.

If a Prius owner doesn't live in a hot climate or have a commute w/lots of hills, the chances are, the HV battery will last a long time. Examples at http://prius.wikia.com/wiki/Lifespan/Operating_costs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;. Hills or hot climates could mean HV battery failure at somewhere between 100K and 200K miles (off the top of my head).

 

[TomT]

Actually, the proceedings where quite cordial, respectful, and civil...

^ yes, and a scorching reception from LEAF owners who want some answers and straight-talk from them about the battery replacement pricing.

 

[TomT]

What surprised me was that Billy or Erik - I forget which one and my notes fail to reflect who it was - indicated that there was even very large resistance at the $4K level...

- The Battery Price survey indicated that even prices in the 5-8K (from memory, correct me if I'm wrong) range were unacceptable to the current and potential drivers.

 

[LEAFfan]

When I posted a couple weeks ago about having my Blink nozzle and cord replaced, I said the Blink tech told me that Nissan had been testing a different chemistry battery for over a year here that can withstand high ambient heat over time. He also told me that the 2013 pack is more robust than earlier years because of the chemistry tweaking and sw changes that gives more cushion.
Also, when I ordered my 2013 in February, a Nissan Executive from TN told me that the range in a 2015 would be at least 150 miles.

 

[TomT]

Based on what was said last night, this would not appear to be the case...

Also, when I ordered my 2013 in February, a Nissan Executive from TN told me that the range in a 2015 would be at least 150 miles.

 

[LEAFfan]

Based on what was said last night, this would not appear to be the case...

Also, when I ordered my 2013 in February, a Nissan Executive from TN told me that the range in a 2015 would be at least 150 miles.

Not necessarily. In 2014, they said the 'Hot' pack, not more miles. So for 2015, I believe they will have the Hot pack plus the extra miles according to what I was told.

 

[Valdemar]

I came to conclusion that my babying the battery during two first years of ownership is not going to serve me well. It likely helped to slow down capacity loss somewhat, and now there is a good chance I may not lose 4 bars before 60k on the odometer, but it will come close. Had I always charged to 100%, not used end of charge timer, let the car sit fully charged in the heat I would end up with a brand spanking new "hot pack" for free, but now I'm looking at a $100/mo lease. Needless to say that I'm pissed.

 

[TimLee]

What surprised me was that Billy or Erik - I forget which one and my notes fail to reflect who it was - indicated that there was even very large resistance at the $4K level...

There isn't anything surprising about this. Just go back and read the 10 page battery survey thread:
http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=11841#p273246" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
If you read through all of it, the fundamental problem is that almost everyone is hoping or expecting or praying that driving electric will be less expensive on total cost of ownership than driving an ICE.
MOST (including a well spoken knowledgeable member of the advisory board) didn't want to pay more than 50% of their savings in using electricity instead of gasoline for replacement of the battery. And a lot weren't willing to pay more than 1/3 of the savings for a battery replacement. For most that is < $4,000.
And for a low miles per year driver like myself where just the age degradation of the battery is going to put the battery capacity to <70% in 7 years, 45,000 miles, the electricity versus gas savings are very small. For me 1/3 to 1/2 of the savings is $1,800 to $2,800.
It is becoming more and more clear that it is completely unrealistic for most LEAF purchaser's total cost of ownership to be less than driving a comparable ICE that they purchase.
Clearly the horrific reality of the battery price is something that Nissan is afraid of releasing, as it would "hurt sales". Similarly Elon Musk was so unwilling to discuss battery price that he walked out of an interview with a financial publication.
I was like many that considered buying the LEAF to be a financial no brainer, when its variable electric fuel cost of < 3.5 cents per mile, and my 2009 4 cylinder Altima variable fuel and oil change cost is ~ 15 cents per mile.
But as I've told most everyone I've talked to about the LEAF in the past 27 months of ownership, the huge uncertainty is the battery. How long will it last and what will it cost to replace?
The lack of information from Nissan and Tesla speaks volumes. Nebulous volumes, but volumes.
I still love the LEAF. Just like the tens of thousands of people that have spent $25K to $30K on an electric ICE conversion, I'm hooked on driving electric. Hope to eventually only drive electric.
But I'm not nearly as naive today about what that is going to cost.

 

[TomT]

So what do you think a reasonable price for a replacement battery is? $199.95?

What surprised me was that Billy or Erik - I forget which one and my notes fail to reflect who it was - indicated that there was even very large resistance at the $4K level...

There isn't anything surprising about this.

 

[smkettner]

I would be fine with $8,000. At least make it available. The lower the cost the sooner I would replace. Nothing wrong with prices dropping over time as plenty of other products have done the same. People have no regrets about paying $10,000 for the first plasma tvs. They just keep selling more as the price drops.

People CAN handle the truth. Just don't gouge us on the price. There are alternatives. If Nissan thinks they are the only game in town they are sorely mistaken.

 

[Valdemar]

It is becoming more and more clear that it is completely unrealistic for most LEAF purchaser's total cost of ownership to be less than driving a comparable ICE that they purchase.

True even with the 7.5k-10k kickback from the government, and how about without?