Tesla's impact on German luxury automakers

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mjblazin said:
- does anyone have a 200 mile EV that is under $100k? No.
Uh. Yes. Tesla S70: $70k without tax incentives.
mjblazin said:
....- 200 miles is only 200 miles on your first day. Every day after you see inevitable battery degradation. 10% loss on a 80 miles EV is one thing. 10% loss on 200 miles EV is a bigger impact. Within 3 or 4 years, you have car not much better than a brand new 100 miles EV.
Don't think so. My S85 has lost about 10 miles of range after 2.5 years. So it's down to 255 mi. But honestly, my daily driving never exceeds 120 mi. And Superchargers are spaced closely enough that I can lose another 50 mi before it's something I'll think about. Once BEVs get above 200 mi with some decent quick charging, the whole equation changes.

mjblazin said:
...EVs are for people that can compartmentalize their driving. I have personally gotten several people actively thinking an EV. The model is always the same. Married or cohabiting couple, one with normal commute and other major smaller commute. You use the EV as the local car and the ICE as the long distance car.
No. We use the Tesla as our long distance car. I've driven it all over the Western U.S. and will be going cross country to Vt next month. Our SUV sits so much the battery is always dead.
Let's not compartmentalize EVs. EVs can soon be everyone's motorized personal transport. It's the Superchargers and decent range. Tesla got it right. Others hopefully will too.
mjblazin said:
...Forget about Tesla and "cool" cars. EVs make a lot of sense when you realize insane driving is for teenagers.
You should try driving one. A quick, great handling vehicle that's so quiet no one minds if you occasionally act like a teenager.
 
mjblazin said:
EVs are for people that can compartmentalize their driving. I have personally gotten several people actively thinking an EV. The model is always the same. Married or cohabiting couple, one with normal commute and other major smaller commute. You use the EV as the local car and the ICE as the long distance car. An honest assessment of a couple's driving habits usually shows the pattern to very common.
I would change that to, "Current, non-Tesla EVs are for people that can compartmentalize their driving." A used LEAF for under $10K can be a great buy for a family like that. Reliable, cheap to drive, and certainly more fun than an ICE econobox.

Personally, I hope to buy a used Tesla S85 for about $50K at some point during the coming year. We are saving for it. I'll add that plenty of middle class families spend $40-50K or more on gas guzzling pickup trucks. If one is patient, a CPO Tesla S60 can be snapped up in the $45K range. So even now, Teslas aren't just for rich people.
 
Here's an article in which an analyst feels the German automakers have "miscued" by focusing on PHEVs instead of BEVs:
Forbes said:
BMW, VW’s Audi and Porsche , and Mercedes have invested huge sums to produce plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, but one German expert believes this is a big mistake, and Tesla Motors TSLA +2.64%’ all electric approach is already eating into their high-end sales.

According to Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) at the University of Duisburg-Essen, not only have the big three Germans wasted money on the blind-alley of plug-in hybrids, they are losing sales in the most profitable end of the luxury market to Tesla. Rich people who have formerly bought the flag-ship Mercedes S-Class, BMW 7 Series and Audi A8 are turning to the Tesla Model S.
 
RegGuheert said:
Here's an article in which an analyst feels the German automakers have "miscued" by focusing on PHEVs instead of BEVs:
Forbes said:
BMW, VW’s Audi and Porsche , and Mercedes have invested huge sums to produce plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, but one German expert believes this is a big mistake, and Tesla Motors TSLA +2.64%’ all electric approach is already eating into their high-end sales.

According to Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, director of the Center for Automotive Research (CAR) at the University of Duisburg-Essen, not only have the big three Germans wasted money on the blind-alley of plug-in hybrids, they are losing sales in the most profitable end of the luxury market to Tesla. Rich people who have formerly bought the flag-ship Mercedes S-Class, BMW 7 Series and Audi A8 are turning to the Tesla Model S.

For a different take on validity of Dudenhoeffer's opinion, see the second post here: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14744&hilit=dudenhoeffer&start=2830
 
GRA said:
For a different take on validity of Dudenhoeffer's opinion, see the second post here: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14744&hilit=dudenhoeffer&start=2830
Your take is not only different, it's irrelevent. Dudenhoeffer is talking about "high end" sales and your data is for other vehicles.

This thread is about luxury vehicles.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
For a different take on validity of Dudenhoeffer's opinion, see the second post here: http://www.mynissanleaf.com/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=14744&hilit=dudenhoeffer&start=2830
Your take is not only different, it's irrelevent. Dudenhoeffer is talking about "high end" sales and your data is for other vehicles.

This thread is about luxury vehicles.
The XC 90 T8 is a luxury vehicle as is the V60 PHEV, as is the X5 xdrive40e, as will be forthcoming PHEV offerings from Audi/Mercedes etc. Not forgetting the i8, Panamera and Cayenne (and 918 if we want to get really silly). And the A3-Etron and i3 REx are at the lower end of the luxury scale, and they've been selling well also - see http://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-sales-to-surpass-conventional-hybrids-in-europe-by-2019/
 
GRA said:
The XC 90 T8 is a luxury vehicle as is the V60 PHEV, as is the X5 xdrive40e, as will be forthcoming PHEV offerings from Audi/Mercedes etc. Not forgetting the i8, Panamera and Cayenne (and 918 if we want to get really silly). And the A3-Etron and i3 REx are at the lower end of the luxury scale, and they've been selling well also - see http://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-sales-to-surpass-conventional-hybrids-in-europe-by-2019/
Are any of these PHEV luxury vehicles outselling the Tesla Model S?
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
The XC 90 T8 is a luxury vehicle as is the V60 PHEV, as is the X5 xdrive40e, as will be forthcoming PHEV offerings from Audi/Mercedes etc. Not forgetting the i8, Panamera and Cayenne (and 918 if we want to get really silly). And the A3-Etron and i3 REx are at the lower end of the luxury scale, and they've been selling well also - see http://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-sales-to-surpass-conventional-hybrids-in-europe-by-2019/
Are any of these PHEV luxury vehicles outselling the Tesla Model S?
Depends on the country, and the incentives/perks. The Netherlands had a big incentive for PHEVs for a while, and IIRR a lesser one for BEVs, so PHEVs were selling really well (which is what catapulted the Outlander to the head of the PHEV sales chart in Europe), and the V60 was also pretty successful. Norway, OTOH, really subsidizes BEVs. The sales trend for both BEVs and PHEVs in Europe is upwards, but PHEVs are (currently, at least) accelerating at a faster pace.

It will be interesting to see how the Model S does in Germany versus cars like the S500 PHEV and the 740e xDrive once they are established. The latter remain much better suited to high-speed autobahn cruising than the S, although the changes to cooling should improve the power-limiting issue that's been a problem at sustained high power draws. But the range at speed still isn't there for the Model S, so I don't see it being able to capture a large share of that market. What remains to be seen is if the people who can afford an S550 or 740e will even bother with the PHEV version: operating costs are an irrelevance to this crowd, so they've got to be motivated by some performance characteristic or green ideology, and if the latter were of great importance to them they wouldn't be buying _any_ of these cars. As it was, the most recent data I've been able to find for Germany, 1/1- 6/30/15, shows the A3 e-tron leading the Model S in sales, although given the price difference that's not all that surprising. OTOH, the Model S lead the field in June, ahead of all other PEVs.

Anyway, here's the most recent data I could find for European PEV sales, for May and YTD through June. It also has breakdowns by country for the Netherlands, France, Germany and Norway, but note that all these numbers are pulled together from different sources, so expect there to be some variation from actual totals: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/16/europe-electric-car-sales-outlander-phev-1-leaf-2-zoe-3/

The Outlander was #1 Europe-wide YTD through May, but the more interesting info is in the country by country breakdowns, which show considerable shifts between both models and PHEV/BEV splits, presumably depending on both varying incentives and local conditions - in the Netherlands, YTD through June PHEVs take 6 of the top 7 spots (the Model S comes in 5th, ahead of the 350e and behind the V60), while looking just at June the Model S remains in 5th place, but the 350e and V60 swap places.

Germany as mentioned above, but here's August data: http://evobsession.com/kia-soul-ev-takes-1-in-germany/
The Soul EV jumps into #1, but YTD it's PHEVs in #1-#4 A3 e-tron is #3; the i3 is #4, so no telling the BEV/PHEV breakdown there), followed by the Soul and the Model S.

In France, 'affordable' BEVs dominate in June, but PHEVs are moving up as less expensive models (GTE etc.) become available. In Norway, BEVs dominate, with the e-Golf heading the list followed by the Model S. PHEVs rank #4-#6.
 
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
The XC 90 T8 is a luxury vehicle as is the V60 PHEV, as is the X5 xdrive40e, as will be forthcoming PHEV offerings from Audi/Mercedes etc. Not forgetting the i8, Panamera and Cayenne (and 918 if we want to get really silly). And the A3-Etron and i3 REx are at the lower end of the luxury scale, and they've been selling well also - see http://insideevs.com/plug-in-hybrid-sales-to-surpass-conventional-hybrids-in-europe-by-2019/
Are any of these PHEV luxury vehicles outselling the Tesla Model S?
...
Anyway, here's the most recent data I could find for European PEV sales, for May and YTD through June. It also has breakdowns by country for the Netherlands, France, Germany and Norway, but note that all these numbers are pulled together from different sources, so expect there to be some variation from actual totals: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/16/europe-electric-car-sales-outlander-phev-1-leaf-2-zoe-3/
Thanks for the link. Since you didn't answer my question, I'll answer it from the data you provided: No, none of these came close to Tesla Model S sales, even in Europe:

European Sales January - May 2015
Tesla Model S: 5840
Volvo V60 PHEV: 2055
Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid: 1158
BMW i8: 957
Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid: 282

In other words, in Europe the Tesla Model S currently outsells all of the European luxury plug-in offerings combined.

In other words, Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer's statement that the European automakers have miscued when they released luxury PHEV models appears to be dead-on.
 
RegGuheert said:
GRA said:
RegGuheert said:
[Are any of these PHEV luxury vehicles outselling the Tesla Model S?
...
Anyway, here's the most recent data I could find for European PEV sales, for May and YTD through June. It also has breakdowns by country for the Netherlands, France, Germany and Norway, but note that all these numbers are pulled together from different sources, so expect there to be some variation from actual totals: http://cleantechnica.com/2015/07/16/europe-electric-car-sales-outlander-phev-1-leaf-2-zoe-3/
Thanks for the link. Since you didn't answer my question, I'll answer it from the data you provided: No, none of these came close to Tesla Model S sales, even in Europe:

European Sales January - May 2015
Tesla Model S: 5840
Volvo V60 PHEV: 2055
Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid: 1158
BMW i8: 957
Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid: 282

In other words, in Europe the Tesla Model S currently outsells all of the European luxury plug-in offerings combined.

In other words, Professor Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer's statement that the European automakers have miscued when they released luxury PHEV models appears to be dead-on.
Reg, look at the country by country breakdowns, and note that the A3 (bottom end of the luxury range) the 350e and/or the V60 have outsold the Tesla either in a particular month or for the year, and the i3 has also outsold it in some countries. As I said, sales of the Model S and PHEVs are highly dependent on the presence or absence of subsidies, and whether they are skewed towards PHEVs or BEVs or neutral. BTW, don't know if you saw it, but I found August sales for Germany, and updated the earlier post with that link. I'm still looking to see if I can find September data, and will post that if I find it. The main thing I notice is the large number of new PHEV models entering the market, dispersing sales over ever more types, while the Tesla remains the sole long(ish) range BEV.
 
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