evnow
Well-known member
The news that Infiniti LE might be delayed by 3 years - and BMW i3 comes with a REx tells me one thing. OEMs are realizing that premium EVs need longer range.
Since Leaf set the bar at 100 city miles (or 75 to 85 EPA miles), that means a premium EV needs atleast 50% more range to be viable. How many would buy BMW i3 with the same range as Leaf for 50% more money ?
Unfortunately in the next 2 years only 3 volume plugins are coming - BMW i3, Outlander PHEV and Model X.
In 3 to 4 years - 2016/17 - we are going to see some shake up in the industry. My guess is -
Tesla Model E / Gen 3 : $35k, 200 miles
BMW i3 : $40k, 125 miles w/ REx
Infiniti LE : $35k, 200 miles
Leaf : $25k, 150 miles
GM EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx ?
Where does that leave Toyota ? A 200 mile EV or a 100 mile EV w/ REx will seriously eat into Prius sales. So, I expect a
Prius EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx
It would be somewhat surprising if Korean manufacturers won't have a competing (PH)EV by that time. But they are so behind, they may have just a compliance EV by then. Rest of the also rans like Honda will continue to have just compliance EVs.
Since Leaf set the bar at 100 city miles (or 75 to 85 EPA miles), that means a premium EV needs atleast 50% more range to be viable. How many would buy BMW i3 with the same range as Leaf for 50% more money ?
Unfortunately in the next 2 years only 3 volume plugins are coming - BMW i3, Outlander PHEV and Model X.
In 3 to 4 years - 2016/17 - we are going to see some shake up in the industry. My guess is -
Tesla Model E / Gen 3 : $35k, 200 miles
BMW i3 : $40k, 125 miles w/ REx
Infiniti LE : $35k, 200 miles
Leaf : $25k, 150 miles
GM EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx ?
Where does that leave Toyota ? A 200 mile EV or a 100 mile EV w/ REx will seriously eat into Prius sales. So, I expect a
Prius EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx
It would be somewhat surprising if Korean manufacturers won't have a competing (PH)EV by that time. But they are so behind, they may have just a compliance EV by then. Rest of the also rans like Honda will continue to have just compliance EVs.