Premium EVs Need Longer Range

[evnow]

The news that Infiniti LE might be delayed by 3 years - and BMW i3 comes with a REx tells me one thing. OEMs are realizing that premium EVs need longer range.

Since Leaf set the bar at 100 city miles (or 75 to 85 EPA miles), that means a premium EV needs atleast 50% more range to be viable. How many would buy BMW i3 with the same range as Leaf for 50% more money ?

Unfortunately in the next 2 years only 3 volume plugins are coming - BMW i3, Outlander PHEV and Model X.

In 3 to 4 years - 2016/17 - we are going to see some shake up in the industry. My guess is -

Tesla Model E / Gen 3 : $35k, 200 miles
BMW i3 : $40k, 125 miles w/ REx
Infiniti LE : $35k, 200 miles

Leaf : $25k, 150 miles
GM EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx ?

Where does that leave Toyota ? A 200 mile EV or a 100 mile EV w/ REx will seriously eat into Prius sales. So, I expect a

Prius EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx

It would be somewhat surprising if Korean manufacturers won't have a competing (PH)EV by that time. But they are so behind, they may have just a compliance EV by then. Rest of the also rans like Honda will continue to have just compliance EVs.

 

[stanley]

I believe that your prediction is right on. My 2011 Leaf lease is up in the Spring of 2014 but I will not buy another Leaf, if it has the current battery range. I love the Leaf but the range is too limiting especially now that I have lost 1 bar after only 26,000 miles. I am not thrilled with the price of the Tesla S but for the next couple of years it is the only option for my needs.

 

[leafedbehind]

I hope Honda gets off its butt and does a full production EV with the Fit EV tech. They need to do volume if they ever expect to get their costs competitive.

I'm with the OP on the BMW i3 range issue. The i3 would be fun, but it will have no better range than the LEAF. The Mercedes B might be interesting (is it expected to be a compliance thing, or volume?), with a rumored 28kWh battery, which would at least give an extra 20% or so of range. That would make a huge difference to me. Many of my longer-distance trips are just outside the range of the Fit and the LEAF (35-45 mi each way), so that I end up having to charge for an hour or so at the destination, especially in the winter. A reliable 110-mile freeway range would eliminate most of my needs for public charging.

 

[surfingslovak]

Good post. I think the real-world range of the i3 with REx will be about 150 miles. Also, the Infinity will likely cost a bit more. Not sure about Tesla Gen 3. If the base price is calculated similarly to the old 40 kWh base Model S, the typical purchase price will likely be above $35K. I think the Model S averages $100K. Gen 3 could be closer to $50K, all said and done. Please keep in mind that 2016 vehicles are being designed today or next year, with whatever technology is available now. The lead times in the automotive industry are still significant. While the battery tech is improving rapidly, the overall pace of the progress is not comparable the to consumer electronics or mobile phones.

 

[ydnas7]

Non Premium, global use, I would guess that the next LEAF is high voltage spinel for +30% more capacity,

Non premium, hot climate, would be comparable range to today's LEAF battery (more cathode blending improves both range and temp resistence but more 'dopant' reduces range but increases temp resistence)

2013 battery with US spec electrolyte is also a useful start. (+50% life in gentle climate, + 300% life in aggresive climate, Your Improvement Will Vary YIWV)

Nissan could go to 85 EPA by just dropping the definition of long life charge (like Tesla did)

So Infiniti is presumably waiting for high voltage spinel but that would be 75-85 mile +30% is about 100-115 mile EPA. If this is better than Mercedes and mid way between BMW i3 and iREX, then its quite argueable thats its premium.

so to get to 150 mile EPA would need +50% more cells ie S96 P2 to become S96 P3 in addition to battery chemistry improvements. Its as easy as deciding to do it early enough, but they probably won't.

RAV 4 EV may dissapear (replaced by H2)

So Tesla still has the full range BEV market to itself. There will be lots of PHEV options come 2016.

 

[TomT]

Considering that Toyota appears to hate EVs with a passion, this one may be in doubt...

The Leaf is going to need 36 Kw and a true high temperature chemistry, at the same price, to reach critical mass...

Prius EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx

 

[ydnas7]

Considering that Toyota appears to hate EVs with a passion, this one may be in doubt...

The Leaf is going to need 36 Kw and a true high temperature chemistry, at the same price, to reach critical mass...

Prius EV : $30k, 100 miles EV w/ REx

yeah but PIP verson 2 could coome with a real battery beneath the seats.
just imagine
more cargo room than a Prius (no battery in the boot)
and a real 8kWh-16kWh battery under the floor.

still a blended drive though -> small electric motor.

 

[TomT]

Which is why it holds no interest for me. It's just a regular Prius with a bigger battery... But at least it might then have enough range to make it out of my neighborhood before needing a recharge... :lol:

still a blended drive though -> small electric motor.

 

[surfingslovak]

Non Premium, global use, I would guess that the next LEAF is high voltage spinel for +30% more capacity

That would make sense. It would also break backwards-compatibility with older vehicles. One couldn't simply take a new denser pack, install it in an older LEAF, and hope the software will take it or that Nissan will have a firmware update ready. Older packs would be then orphaned, but could still potentially be manufactured with the new chemistry. It will be interesting to see what they come up with. Perhaps it's just me, but I think the largest challenge is that the battery pack cannot easily offer 20% or 40% more capacity as a buyer-configurable option. The simplest upgrade I could think of is to pack six instead for four cells into each module, and tweak the BMS to work with more cells. That would be a 50% capacity increase over the base version. You would think that Tesla could simply add any number of additional 18650 cells, but they are limiting themselves to two pack sizes today, which are about 40% apart (60 and 85 kWh).

There will be lots of PHEV options come 2016.

Yes, absolutely. I would not be surprised if virtually every automaker had a plugin hybrid on the market soon. It simply makes too much sense not to consider it.

 

[cwerdna]

For the PiP, they did make changes so that you can accelerate MUCH harder and still stay in EV while in EV mode. Also, the max speed for EV mode is higher (~62 mph, IIRC). On a regular Prius, anything beyond very modest acceleration will cause the ICE to kick on and max EV speed ~46 mph on the Gen 3 Prius.

 

[sparky]

I expect 2015 to be the last gasp of the FCEV.
Toyota and Honda will make a big push with CARB similar to 10 yrs ago.
They've doubled down on that tech instead of BEV so that's what they'll offer and lobby for.
The Honda Clarity is a beautiful car with a stupid energy source.
Tesla is a case study in how Honda and Toyota bet wrong. I hope Nissan quickly catches up with a 200 mi Premium EV but it seems like Tesla's battery cost and technology will continue to make them the EV to beat.

 

[Petecomp1]

Great post evnow. I'm guessing that Tesla is well aware that a 200 mile car for around 40K ($400/mo lease after credits) will sell and sell big. I would lease one if in the market now (my Leaf lease expires March 2015). Nissan has got to be aware of this. I love that Tesla is motivating the slow-moving, bureaucracy-bound car companies. It's a shame about Honda; but they have been known to spring a surprise now and then so I'd never count them out of the game. Ditto the Koreans; they just manipulate their currency and voila! a cheaper car appears.
I love this game and am sad for the millions of Americans who are missing all the fun!